Global Outlook
APRIL 2025
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Ongoing talks are unlikely to facilitate the conclusion of the Ukraine conflict in the coming month.
Ukraine, Russia and the US on 25 March released statements agreeing in principle to a truce in the Black Sea, but Russian preconditions include an easing of sanctions. Russia’s strategy likely remains focused on prolonging negotiations by making maximalist demands while maintaining a co-operative tone. The US will remain intent on presenting a peace deal, but Europe’s absence from the negotiating table, as well as fundamental disagreements over relations to Russia will continue to strain transatlantic relations in the coming month.
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OPEC+ will likely extend its production plans to increase output, at least temporarily, during the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) on 5 April.
However, this is likely to be dependent on steady oil prices and the success of seven of the core members reducing output to compensate for overproduction in previous cycles. Geopolitical dynamics, including global trade tensions, China’s economy, and the Ukraine conflict will also impact production strategies.
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Extremist threats will likely increase around the Jewish Passover (Pesach) holiday (12-20 April) and the Christian Easter holiday (18-20 April).
The most likely attack scenario will involve radicalised individuals acting autonomously and using crude methods, such as stabbings or vehicle rammings. For example, Canadian authorities in September 2024 arrested a man allegedly planning a terrorist attack targeting Jewish communities in New York City (US) to coincide with the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur. Easter is not generally associated with elevated violent extremist threats, though attacks have targeted religious services in some countries in the past (such as Sri Lanka in 2019).
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An ongoing global trend of reducing or weakening climate-related regulations will increase activists’ intent to stage protests and direct actions during annual general meetings (AGMs) in the coming weeks.
Activists will advocate for greater corporate accountability and climate actions. The vast majority of protest actions at AGMs will be peaceful, although activists will likely use more disruptive tactics at AGMs of companies that they have long targeted or that have recently published rollbacks of climate commitments. AGM-related protests are more likely to take place in Europe, the US, Canada and Australia.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“Outcomes of the United States and Ukraine Expert Groups On the Black Sea”, The White House
“OPEC+ likely to proceed with planned May oil output hike, sources say”, Reuters
“Disastrous Omnibus proposal erodes EU’s corporate accountability commitments and slashes human rights and environmental protections”, Joint Statement
“Ethiopia clinches initial deal with official creditors amid bondholder standoff”, Reuters
Control Risks
Global Outlook
NOVEMBER 2024
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
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The US Presidential election on 5 November will have global ramifications.
Global financial markets will likely experience a period of volatility around the results, which will be exacerbated should these be delayed or contested in the following days and weeks. There will likely be elevated geopolitical risks in the coming weeks as state and non-state actors may exploit a distracted US to take strategic actions, such as in the Ukraine and Middle Eastern conflicts. Control Risks assesses that the outcome of the election will be dependent on turnout in seven key swing states, where each candidate is polling within the margin of error of the other.
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There will unlikely be significant breakthrough on climate change action at the 29th UN Climate Change conference (COP29) in Baku (Azerbaijan) on 11-22 November.
COP29 will focus on financing, with the aim of establishing the so-called New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance to bridge funding gaps in developing countries. Squeezed budgets among wealthier nations coupled with limited momentum for international cooperation given growing geopolitical competition means that negotiations will fail to produce ambitious results. Azerbaijan’s strict approach to public protests will limit security risks to attendees.
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As host, Brazil will likely prioritise climate change, biodiversity, green energy and global tax initiatives during the G20 Leaders’ Summit on 18-19 November.
Brazil will likely attempt to showcase its leadership on global challenges, especially those impactful to Global South countries. Nevertheless, a final consensus on all issues will likely be undermined by geopolitical fragmentation and divisive issues. Key international leaders will be present at the summit, reinforcing the G20 as a key diplomatic forum. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend because of an outstanding arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court.
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The International Network of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Safety Institutes on 20-21 November will see allies coordinate technical approaches to AI ahead of the 2025 AI Safety Summit in France.
The network members include Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Japan, Kenya, South Korea, Singapore, the UK and the US. Technical experts from each member state will discuss priority work areas, as well as advance global collaboration and knowledge sharing. The summit is unlikely to produce concrete outcomes, but alignment on key areas such as safety and national security will provide a basis for further negotiations in February.
Sources:
“Currency volatility surges before US election”, Reuters
“UN Climate Change Conference: Baku – November 2024”, UN
“Lula eyes Brazil’s G20 summit with plan to tax billionaires”, Chatham House
“U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo and U.S. Secretary of State Blinken Announce Inaugural AI Summit”, US Department of Commerce
“How Will a Global Plastics Treaty Impact Trade?”, IISD
Control Risks
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
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The IMF and the World Bank on 21-26 April will discuss global financial concerns amid trade tensions and strained public finances at their annual spring meetings.
Debt restructuring will likely be a critical topic. Ethiopia on 21 March reportedly reached a deal with its official creditors to restructure USD 8.4bn worth of public debt. With this deal, Ethiopia will join Ghana, Zambia and Chad, which have all restructured their debt under the G20 Common Framework in recent years. The G20 finance ministers’ meeting will take place alongside the spring meetings on 23-24 April. Global economic forecasts by the IMF, which will be launched alongside the April meeting, will be key reference points for companies and governments globally.
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An ongoing global trend of reducing or weakening climate-related regulations will increase activists’ intent to stage protests and direct actions during annual general meetings (AGMs) in the coming weeks.
Activists will advocate for greater corporate accountability and climate actions. The vast majority of protest actions at AGMs will be peaceful, although activists will likely use more disruptive tactics at AGMs of companies that they have long targeted or that have recently published rollbacks of climate commitments. AGM-related protests are more likely to take place in Europe, the US, Canada and Australia.