Global Outlook
APRIL 2025
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Ongoing talks are unlikely to facilitate the conclusion of the Ukraine conflict in the coming month.
Ukraine, Russia and the US on 25 March released statements agreeing in principle to a truce in the Black Sea, but Russian preconditions include an easing of sanctions. Russia’s strategy likely remains focused on prolonging negotiations by making maximalist demands while maintaining a co-operative tone. The US will remain intent on presenting a peace deal, but Europe’s absence from the negotiating table, as well as fundamental disagreements over relations to Russia will continue to strain transatlantic relations in the coming month.
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OPEC+ will likely extend its production plans to increase output, at least temporarily, during the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) on 5 April.
However, this is likely to be dependent on steady oil prices and the success of seven of the core members reducing output to compensate for overproduction in previous cycles. Geopolitical dynamics, including global trade tensions, China’s economy, and the Ukraine conflict will also impact production strategies.
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Extremist threats will likely increase around the Jewish Passover (Pesach) holiday (12-20 April) and the Christian Easter holiday (18-20 April).
The most likely attack scenario will involve radicalised individuals acting autonomously and using crude methods, such as stabbings or vehicle rammings. For example, Canadian authorities in September 2024 arrested a man allegedly planning a terrorist attack targeting Jewish communities in New York City (US) to coincide with the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur. Easter is not generally associated with elevated violent extremist threats, though attacks have targeted religious services in some countries in the past (such as Sri Lanka in 2019).
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An ongoing global trend of reducing or weakening climate-related regulations will increase activists’ intent to stage protests and direct actions during annual general meetings (AGMs) in the coming weeks.
Activists will advocate for greater corporate accountability and climate actions. The vast majority of protest actions at AGMs will be peaceful, although activists will likely use more disruptive tactics at AGMs of companies that they have long targeted or that have recently published rollbacks of climate commitments. AGM-related protests are more likely to take place in Europe, the US, Canada and Australia.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“Outcomes of the United States and Ukraine Expert Groups On the Black Sea”, The White House
“OPEC+ likely to proceed with planned May oil output hike, sources say”, Reuters
“Disastrous Omnibus proposal erodes EU’s corporate accountability commitments and slashes human rights and environmental protections”, Joint Statement
“Ethiopia clinches initial deal with official creditors amid bondholder standoff”, Reuters
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The IMF and the World Bank on 21-26 April will discuss global financial concerns amid trade tensions and strained public finances at their annual spring meetings.
Debt restructuring will likely be a critical topic. Ethiopia on 21 March reportedly reached a deal with its official creditors to restructure USD 8.4bn worth of public debt. With this deal, Ethiopia will join Ghana, Zambia and Chad, which have all restructured their debt under the G20 Common Framework in recent years. The G20 finance ministers’ meeting will take place alongside the spring meetings on 23-24 April. Global economic forecasts by the IMF, which will be launched alongside the April meeting, will be key reference points for companies and governments globally.