Global Outlook
FEBRUARY 2025
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
South Africa will likely follow its predecessors’ lead and highlight issues critical to the Global South during its presidency including during both G20 foreign and financial ministers’ meetings on 20-21 and 26-27 February, respectively.
These include increasing climate financing, critical mineral development and digitisation in Global South countries. The Middle East and Ukraine conflicts combined with returned US President Donald Trump’s combative approach to geopolitical issues – including threatening fellow G20 members Canada and Mexico with trade tariffs – will likely undermine broad consensus during these meetings.
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European security priorities will likely top the agenda during the Munich Security Conference on 14-16 February.
Critically, the conference takes place ahead of the fourth anniversary of the onset of the Ukraine conflict (24 February). The event will likely illustrate that some EU countries have intent to strengthen a common European defence strategy. The evolution in Europe’s approach will likely underscore the deviation in US and EU approaches to the Ukraine conflict in particular. Under the Trump administration, the US has made a clear push for Russia and Ukraine to engage in talks, which remain unlikely in the coming months.
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Governments will seek to align AI regulation and bolster sector investment, especially in Europe, during the AI Action Summit in Paris on 10-11 February.
AI is increasingly becoming a key geopolitical battleground. The Trump administration recently announced plans to reduce federal oversight in AI development to accelerate domestic capabilities. Major AI players will have greater impetus to make progress after a Chinese AI company in January announced that it could match the effectiveness of US AI models at a fraction of the cost by using older chips. Meanwhile, the event will also be a rallying point for nascent anti-AI activists that have called for global protests alongside the event.
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There will be three national elections in February.
In Kosovo, the left-wing nationalist Self-Determination Movement (LVV) is likely to retain power in the 9 February parliamentary elections. In Ecuador, delayed executive decisions and the lack of co-ordination among government branches will likely continue regardless of the result of the presidential election (9 February). A coalition between the governing centre-left Social Democratic Party and the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) is the most likely outcome of the federal elections in Germany on 23 February. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party will likely make significant gains, but all other parties have stated that they are not willing to form a coalition with it.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“Trump Threatens Tariffs Over Immigration, Drugs and Greenland”, The New York Times
“Ukraine is pinning hopes on Putin exasperating Trump”, Politico
“Can Europe get big tech on board at Paris AI Action Summit?”, Chatham House
“Thousands in Germany protest the rise of the far right ahead of next month’s election”, AP News
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