Monthly Outlook February 2025

Global Outlook

FEBRUARY 2025

SCroll down to explore

Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

South Africa will likely follow its predecessors’ lead and highlight issues critical to the Global South during its presidency including during both G20 foreign and financial ministers’ meetings on 20-21 and 26-27 February, respectively. These include increasing climate financing, critical mineral development and digitisation in Global South countries. The Middle East and Ukraine conflicts combined with returned US President Donald Trump’s combative approach to geopolitical issues – including threatening fellow G20 members Canada and Mexico with trade tariffs – will likely undermine broad consensus during these meetings.

European security priorities will likely top the agenda during the Munich Security Conference on 14-16 February. Critically, the conference takes place ahead of the fourth anniversary of the onset of the Ukraine conflict (24 February). The event will likely illustrate that some EU countries have intent to strengthen a common European defence strategy. The evolution in Europe’s approach will likely underscore the deviation in US and EU approaches to the Ukraine conflict in particular. Under the Trump administration, the US has made a clear push for Russia and Ukraine to engage in talks, which remain unlikely in the coming months.

Governments will seek to align AI regulation and bolster sector investment, especially in Europe, during the AI Action Summit in Paris on 10-11 February. AI is increasingly becoming a key geopolitical battleground. The Trump administration recently announced plans to reduce federal oversight in AI development to accelerate domestic capabilities. Major AI players will have greater impetus to make progress after a Chinese AI company in January announced that it could match the effectiveness of US AI models at a fraction of the cost by using older chips. Meanwhile, the event will also be a rallying point for nascent anti-AI activists that have called for global protests alongside the event.

There will be three national elections in February. In Kosovo, the left-wing nationalist Self-Determination Movement (LVV) is likely to retain power in the 9 February parliamentary elections. In Ecuador, delayed executive decisions and the lack of co-ordination among government branches will likely continue regardless of the result of the presidential election (9 February). A coalition between the governing centre-left Social Democratic Party and the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) is the most likely outcome of the federal elections in Germany on 23 February. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party will likely make significant gains, but all other parties have stated that they are not willing to form a coalition with it.

In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

Sources: “Trump Threatens Tariffs Over Immigration, Drugs and Greenland”, The New York Times “Ukraine is pinning hopes on Putin exasperating Trump”, Politico “Can Europe get big tech on board at Paris AI Action Summit?”, Chatham House “Thousands in Germany protest the rise of the far right ahead of next month’s election”, AP News Control Risks

Global Outlook

NOVEMBER 2024

Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

The US Presidential election on 5 November will have global ramifications. Global financial markets will likely experience a period of volatility around the results, which will be exacerbated should these be delayed or contested in the following days and weeks. There will likely be elevated geopolitical risks in the coming weeks as state and non-state actors may exploit a distracted US to take strategic actions, such as in the Ukraine and Middle Eastern conflicts. Control Risks assesses that the outcome of the election will be dependent on turnout in seven key swing states, where each candidate is polling within the margin of error of the other.

There will unlikely be significant breakthrough on climate change action at the 29th UN Climate Change conference (COP29) in Baku (Azerbaijan) on 11-22 November. COP29 will focus on financing, with the aim of establishing the so-called New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance to bridge funding gaps in developing countries. Squeezed budgets among wealthier nations coupled with limited momentum for international cooperation given growing geopolitical competition means that negotiations will fail to produce ambitious results. Azerbaijan’s strict approach to public protests will limit security risks to attendees.

As host, Brazil will likely prioritise climate change, biodiversity, green energy and global tax initiatives during the G20 Leaders’ Summit on 18-19 November. Brazil will likely attempt to showcase its leadership on global challenges, especially those impactful to Global South countries. Nevertheless, a final consensus on all issues will likely be undermined by geopolitical fragmentation and divisive issues. Key international leaders will be present at the summit, reinforcing the G20 as a key diplomatic forum. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend because of an outstanding arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court.

The International Network of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Safety Institutes on 20-21 November will see allies coordinate technical approaches to AI ahead of the 2025 AI Safety Summit in France. The network members include Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Japan, Kenya, South Korea, Singapore, the UK and the US. Technical experts from each member state will discuss priority work areas, as well as advance global collaboration and knowledge sharing. The summit is unlikely to produce concrete outcomes, but alignment on key areas such as safety and national security will provide a basis for further negotiations in February.

Sources: “Currency volatility surges before US election”, Reuters “UN Climate Change Conference: Baku – November 2024”, UN “Lula eyes Brazil’s G20 summit with plan to tax billionaires”, Chatham House “U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo and U.S. Secretary of State Blinken Announce Inaugural AI Summit”, US Department of Commerce “How Will a Global Plastics Treaty Impact Trade?”, IISD Control Risks

Talk to us. See how Seerist delivers critical threat and risk intelligence to support strategic decision-making.

Schedule a Call

Request a demo

Request a demo to see how Seerist can support your security and intelligence efforts.

Explore Seerist Today

The foresight to get ahead of what may come.

The insights with the most impact.

Accelerate speed to decision.

SHARE THE REPORT