Monthly Outlook December 2025

Global Outlook

DECEMBER 2025

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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

Global security threats will be elevated during the end of year holiday season. Threat actors will have heightened intent to call for and carry out attacks on or around Christmas (24-26 December), the Jewish festival of Hanukkah (14-22 December), New Year celebrations (31 December-1 January) and Orthodox Christmas (7 January). The most likely scenario for an Islamist extremist attack in Western countries will be an attack by an individual or small group using unsophisticated tactics against soft targets, such as holiday markets, shopping districts and public events.

International Anti-Corruption Day on 9 December will take place amid diverging approaches to combatting corruption globally. The US, UK, other Western countries and the EU traditionally mark the day by imposing targeted sanctions against groups and officials allegedly involved in corruption – including in other Western countries. However, the US in 2025 is deprioritising anti-corruption in foreign policy, making it less likely to impose significant new sanctions.

The US will officially take over the 2026 G20 Presidency on 1 December. The US will likely narrow the G20 forum’s scope and leverage the agenda’s priorities, such as accelerating tech innovation and energy development, testing the resilience of multilateral consensus on global governance. The US reportedly plans to trim the programme to just the leaders’ summit and financial forum, cutting working groups and ministers’ meetings on energy, health and the environment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit India on 5 December for the countries' 23rd annual bilateral summit as US measures increasingly impact the Russia-India oil trade. The summit will place amid tensions between the US and New Delhi. The US earlier in the year imposed “secondary tariffs” on India for buying Russian oil. More recently, US sanctions on two Russian oil companies, which took effect on 21 November, are reportedly starting to reduce the previously booming Russia-India crude oil trade. Russia will maintain exports via intermediaries and “shadow fleet” tankers.

In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

Sources: “Russian Oil Offered to India at Deep Discount After US Sanctions”, Bloomberg “Treasury Sanctions Major Russian Oil Companies, Calls on Moscow to Immediately Agree to Ceasefire”, OFAC “Germany’s Christmas markets open with festive cheer and tight security”, NBC “Donald Trump bars South Africa from G20 summit”, Financial Times Control Risks

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Global Outlook

NOVEMBER 2025

Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

South Africa will host the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Gauteng on 22-23 November and will aim to promote Global South* issues, including trade, debt distress, the green energy transition and security. However, the G20 since October 2024 has not been able to mutually agree on a stance in order to issue a communique. Canada on 11-12 November will hold the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in the Niagara region (Ontario). While the meeting was set to cover security, prosperity and economic resilience, the agenda will likely be at least somewhat overshadowed by global trade tensions.

Geopolitical dynamics will likely result in limited progress during the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) that will take place in Brazil from 10-21 November. The Trump administration will likely decide not to send a national delegation to COP30 – though some US state and private sector representatives will attend. Another key indicator of the shift in the US position was seen in a 22 October open letter from the US and Qatar urging the EU to repeal or make sweeping changes to its Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive to address US and Qatari concerns over gas exports.

There will be an uptick in climate protests, especially in Europe, North America and parts of Asia, coinciding with COP30. Youth-led climate movement Fridays for Future has called for a global climate strike on 14 November. The majority of these demonstrations will likely be peaceful and cause limited operational disruption. However, other activities intended to attract publicity, such as banner drops, graffiti, arson and sabotage, have increased in frequency in recent years, and will target companies linked to fossil fuels, including those in the energy, finance, insurance and technology sectors.

The EU-African Union Summit will take place on 24-25 November in Luanda (Angola), focusing on security, trade, green development, digitalisation and migration. This year marks 25 years of the Africa-EU Partnership. The EU will continue to view bolstering relations with African countries and regional alliances as a geopolitical priority. This strategy reflects broader geopolitical competition over critical resources in strategic regions between major powers such as the US and China.

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Sources: @realdonaldtrump, Truth Social “Full Calendar of Meetings 2025”, South Africa G20 Presidency “Republican-led states push Trump officials to skip COP30”, E&E News Politico “Local transmission of clade 1b mpox cases detected in EU/EEA, ECDC urges renewed vigilance”, ECDC “EU-African Union to deepen cooperation at 24-25 November summit in Angola”, EEAS Fridays for Future Plans Global Climate Strike During COP30 in Brazil, Common Dreams Control Risks

*While the term Global South lacks a formal definition, it commonly refers to a diverse group of lower- or middle-income countries that share social, economic and historical characteristics. However, the term is interpreted differently across the globe and “leading” the Global South has become a political objective for some governments. In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.