Global Outlook
DECEMBER 2025
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Global security threats will be elevated during the end of year holiday season.
Threat actors will have heightened intent to call for and carry out attacks on or around Christmas (24-26 December), the Jewish festival of Hanukkah (14-22 December), New Year celebrations (31 December-1 January) and Orthodox Christmas (7 January). The most likely scenario for an Islamist extremist attack in Western countries will be an attack by an individual or small group using unsophisticated tactics against soft targets, such as holiday markets, shopping districts and public events.
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International Anti-Corruption Day on 9 December will take place amid diverging approaches to combatting corruption globally.
The US, UK, other Western countries and the EU traditionally mark the day by imposing targeted sanctions against groups and officials allegedly involved in corruption – including in other Western countries. However, the US in 2025 is deprioritising anti-corruption in foreign policy, making it less likely to impose significant new sanctions.
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The US will officially take over the 2026 G20 Presidency on 1 December.
The US will likely narrow the G20 forum’s scope and leverage the agenda’s priorities, such as accelerating tech innovation and energy development, testing the resilience of multilateral consensus on global governance. The US reportedly plans to trim the programme to just the leaders’ summit and financial forum, cutting working groups and ministers’ meetings on energy, health and the environment.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit India on 5 December for the countries' 23rd annual bilateral summit as US measures increasingly impact the Russia-India oil trade.
The summit will place amid tensions between the US and New Delhi. The US earlier in the year imposed “secondary tariffs” on India for buying Russian oil. More recently, US sanctions on two Russian oil companies, which took effect on 21 November, are reportedly starting to reduce the previously booming Russia-India crude oil trade. Russia will maintain exports via intermediaries and “shadow fleet” tankers.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“Russian Oil Offered to India at Deep Discount After US Sanctions”, Bloomberg
“Treasury Sanctions Major Russian Oil Companies, Calls on Moscow to Immediately Agree to Ceasefire”, OFAC
“Germany’s Christmas markets open with festive cheer and tight security”, NBC
“Donald Trump bars South Africa from G20 summit”, Financial Times
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