Monthly Outlook February 2026

Global Outlook

FEBRUARY 2026

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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

The terrorism threat will remain elevated during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan (approximately 17 February-19 March). Ramadan typically coincides with an uptick in Islamist extremist attacks, often following exhortations from groups including Islamic State, al-Qaida and their affiliates. The Israel-Hamas conflict and aftermath will likely further bolster intent by these groups to stage attacks, even if capabilities for high-impact attacks remain limited. Local affiliates pf extremist groups in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia are the most likely actors to stage attacks during this period.

European security priorities will top the agenda during the Munich Security Conference on 13-15 February. The conference takes place ahead of the fourth anniversary of the onset of the Ukraine conflict (24 February). Major EU countries will state their intent to robustly contribute to a common European defence strategy, especially as US pressure on member states to increase defence spending persists. It will also be a forum for European leaders to assert solidarity, both in ideals and territorial integrity, after recent tensions between the US and some European countries over Greenland.

The Milano Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games taking place on 6-22 February across Lombardy and north-eastern Italy is a target for multiple operational and security threats, including direct action, protests, sabotage and terrorism. Sabotage attacks targeting energy or transport infrastructure are credible, following similar disruptive attacks across Europe in the past few years. Transnational Islamist extremist groups continue to have high intent to target international sporting events. However, elevated security measures will likely mitigate complex, high-impact threats.

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) is due to expire on 4 February, and a move to not renew it would mark a significant departure from non-proliferation commitments. The treaty was signed in 2010 by the US and Russia and has been renewed several times since. The treaty caps the number of strategic warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles and other weaponry of each major power. Should New START expire, the US and Russia would face a future without any legally binding restrictions on their nuclear forces.

In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

Sources: “Pakistan saw highest number of militant attacks during Ramadan in a decade”, Arab News “Euroviews. When the US looks elsewhere, what happens to Europe?”, Euronews “The US and Russia’s nuclear weapons treaty is set to expire. Here’s what’s at stake”, Chatham House “Milan-Cortina chief admits venue time pinch as Olympic torch relay begins”, France24 “One Month to go: Munich Security Conference 2026”, Security Conference “Second meeting of the Open-ended intergovernmental Expert Group on crimes that affect the environment falling within the scope of the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime and related offences covered by the Convention”, UN Control Risks

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Global Outlook

NOVEMBER 2025

Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

South Africa will host the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Gauteng on 22-23 November and will aim to promote Global South* issues, including trade, debt distress, the green energy transition and security. However, the G20 since October 2024 has not been able to mutually agree on a stance in order to issue a communique. Canada on 11-12 November will hold the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in the Niagara region (Ontario). While the meeting was set to cover security, prosperity and economic resilience, the agenda will likely be at least somewhat overshadowed by global trade tensions.

Geopolitical dynamics will likely result in limited progress during the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) that will take place in Brazil from 10-21 November. The Trump administration will likely decide not to send a national delegation to COP30 – though some US state and private sector representatives will attend. Another key indicator of the shift in the US position was seen in a 22 October open letter from the US and Qatar urging the EU to repeal or make sweeping changes to its Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive to address US and Qatari concerns over gas exports.

There will be an uptick in climate protests, especially in Europe, North America and parts of Asia, coinciding with COP30. Youth-led climate movement Fridays for Future has called for a global climate strike on 14 November. The majority of these demonstrations will likely be peaceful and cause limited operational disruption. However, other activities intended to attract publicity, such as banner drops, graffiti, arson and sabotage, have increased in frequency in recent years, and will target companies linked to fossil fuels, including those in the energy, finance, insurance and technology sectors.

The EU-African Union Summit will take place on 24-25 November in Luanda (Angola), focusing on security, trade, green development, digitalisation and migration. This year marks 25 years of the Africa-EU Partnership. The EU will continue to view bolstering relations with African countries and regional alliances as a geopolitical priority. This strategy reflects broader geopolitical competition over critical resources in strategic regions between major powers such as the US and China.

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Sources: @realdonaldtrump, Truth Social “Full Calendar of Meetings 2025”, South Africa G20 Presidency “Republican-led states push Trump officials to skip COP30”, E&E News Politico “Local transmission of clade 1b mpox cases detected in EU/EEA, ECDC urges renewed vigilance”, ECDC “EU-African Union to deepen cooperation at 24-25 November summit in Angola”, EEAS Fridays for Future Plans Global Climate Strike During COP30 in Brazil, Common Dreams Control Risks

*While the term Global South lacks a formal definition, it commonly refers to a diverse group of lower- or middle-income countries that share social, economic and historical characteristics. However, the term is interpreted differently across the globe and “leading” the Global South has become a political objective for some governments. In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

The final meeting of the Intergovernmental Expert Group on using the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (UNTOC) to address environmental crimes on 24-26 February is likely to highlight broad consensus. The growing involvement of organised criminal groups (OCGs) in the illegal exploitation of resources has driven renewed impetus to tackle these issues. OCGs have become embedded in strategic resource supply chains, including illegal mining in Southeast Asia, Latin America and West Africa. The rising demand for critical and precious minerals will continue to drive increasing illicit interest in highly profitable industries.