Monthly Outlook February 2026

Global Outlook

FEBRUARY 2026

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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

The terrorism threat will remain elevated during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan (approximately 17 February-19 March). Ramadan typically coincides with an uptick in Islamist extremist attacks, often following exhortations from groups including Islamic State, al-Qaida and their affiliates. The Israel-Hamas conflict and aftermath will likely further bolster intent by these groups to stage attacks, even if capabilities for high-impact attacks remain limited. Local affiliates pf extremist groups in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia are the most likely actors to stage attacks during this period.

European security priorities will top the agenda during the Munich Security Conference on 13-15 February. The conference takes place ahead of the fourth anniversary of the onset of the Ukraine conflict (24 February). Major EU countries will state their intent to robustly contribute to a common European defence strategy, especially as US pressure on member states to increase defence spending persists. It will also be a forum for European leaders to assert solidarity, both in ideals and territorial integrity, after recent tensions between the US and some European countries over Greenland.

The Milano Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games taking place on 6-22 February across Lombardy and north-eastern Italy is a target for multiple operational and security threats, including direct action, protests, sabotage and terrorism. Sabotage attacks targeting energy or transport infrastructure are credible, following similar disruptive attacks across Europe in the past few years. Transnational Islamist extremist groups continue to have high intent to target international sporting events. However, elevated security measures will likely mitigate complex, high-impact threats.

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) is due to expire on 4 February, and a move to not renew it would mark a significant departure from non-proliferation commitments. The treaty was signed in 2010 by the US and Russia and has been renewed several times since. The treaty caps the number of strategic warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles and other weaponry of each major power. Should New START expire, the US and Russia would face a future without any legally binding restrictions on their nuclear forces.

In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

Sources: “Pakistan saw highest number of militant attacks during Ramadan in a decade”, Arab News “Euroviews. When the US looks elsewhere, what happens to Europe?”, Euronews “The US and Russia’s nuclear weapons treaty is set to expire. Here’s what’s at stake”, Chatham House “Milan-Cortina chief admits venue time pinch as Olympic torch relay begins”, France24 “One Month to go: Munich Security Conference 2026”, Security Conference “Second meeting of the Open-ended intergovernmental Expert Group on crimes that affect the environment falling within the scope of the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime and related offences covered by the Convention”, UN Control Risks

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The final meeting of the Intergovernmental Expert Group on using the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (UNTOC) to address environmental crimes on 24-26 February is likely to highlight broad consensus. The growing involvement of organised criminal groups (OCGs) in the illegal exploitation of resources has driven renewed impetus to tackle these issues. OCGs have become embedded in strategic resource supply chains, including illegal mining in Southeast Asia, Latin America and West Africa. The rising demand for critical and precious minerals will continue to drive increasing illicit interest in highly profitable industries.