Monthly Outlook March 2026

Global Outlook

MARCH 2026

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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

Geopolitical conflict-related tensions will persist in the coming month, especially between Iran-US and Ukraine-Russia. In our most likely scenario, diplomatic efforts between Iran-US stall and the US conducts limited strikes against Iranian nuclear and missile infrastructure. This prompts Iranian retaliation against US bases and shipping in the Gulf region. In turn, this triggers a rapid escalation into a broader regional confrontation. Meanwhile, Ukraine conflict ceasefire talks have met an impasse over the future of the eastern provinces of Ukraine. Momentum will likely restart should Russia acquiesce to limited concessions, though this remains unlikely in the coming month.

The Christian Easter holiday (30 March-5 April) is not generally associated with elevated violent extremist threats globally, but the likelihood of terrorist attacks targeting churches and Christian communities will likely be elevated in hotspot regions. The Middle East and North Africa will face a particularly heightened risk, especially in areas with mixed demographics, such as Syria and Israel.The Christian community was previously targeted in a high impact attack on a church in the Dweila neighbourhood of the capital Damascus (Syria) in June 2025.

There are at least five nationally and regionally impactful elections in March. In Germany, Baden‑Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate state elections will likely result in the far-right party AfD gaining significant voter share, albeit not enough to secure majorities. The extent to which Gen-Z protests in Nepal will change policy will be reflected in the 5 March general election. Colombia will hold legislative elections on 8 March, where voting will continue to suffer from elevated levels of political violence. In Slovenia, on 22 March the right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) led by former prime minister Janez Janša is likely to defeat the incumbent centre-left Freedom Movement (GS) of Prime Minister Robert Golob. In Congo (Brazzaville), President Denis Sassou Nguesso on 15 March will highly likely secure a first-round victory, in a political context marked by a weakened opposition.

The biannual World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference (MC14) will take place on 26-29 March in Yaoundé (Cameroon), amid broader geopolitical fragmentation. There will be limited substantial initiatives as the meeting is officially framed as a non-negotiating, reform-focused ministerial, emphasising reflection, institutional guidance and resetting expectations for the WTO’s future. Nevertheless, middle power attendees will likely seek to strike a tone of support for multilateralism more broadly.

In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

Sources: “We’re not safe here anymore’’ – Syria’s Christians fear for future after devastating church attack”, BBC “State elections could spell doom for Germany’s oldest party”, DW “Members endorse draft MC14 decision on boosting small economies’ participation in trade”, WTO “U.S. evacuates Israel embassy staff as Trump’s Iran decision looms”, Axios Control Risks

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Global Outlook

NOVEMBER 2025

Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

South Africa will host the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Gauteng on 22-23 November and will aim to promote Global South* issues, including trade, debt distress, the green energy transition and security. However, the G20 since October 2024 has not been able to mutually agree on a stance in order to issue a communique. Canada on 11-12 November will hold the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in the Niagara region (Ontario). While the meeting was set to cover security, prosperity and economic resilience, the agenda will likely be at least somewhat overshadowed by global trade tensions.

Geopolitical dynamics will likely result in limited progress during the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) that will take place in Brazil from 10-21 November. The Trump administration will likely decide not to send a national delegation to COP30 – though some US state and private sector representatives will attend. Another key indicator of the shift in the US position was seen in a 22 October open letter from the US and Qatar urging the EU to repeal or make sweeping changes to its Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive to address US and Qatari concerns over gas exports.

There will be an uptick in climate protests, especially in Europe, North America and parts of Asia, coinciding with COP30. Youth-led climate movement Fridays for Future has called for a global climate strike on 14 November. The majority of these demonstrations will likely be peaceful and cause limited operational disruption. However, other activities intended to attract publicity, such as banner drops, graffiti, arson and sabotage, have increased in frequency in recent years, and will target companies linked to fossil fuels, including those in the energy, finance, insurance and technology sectors.

The EU-African Union Summit will take place on 24-25 November in Luanda (Angola), focusing on security, trade, green development, digitalisation and migration. This year marks 25 years of the Africa-EU Partnership. The EU will continue to view bolstering relations with African countries and regional alliances as a geopolitical priority. This strategy reflects broader geopolitical competition over critical resources in strategic regions between major powers such as the US and China.

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Sources: @realdonaldtrump, Truth Social “Full Calendar of Meetings 2025”, South Africa G20 Presidency “Republican-led states push Trump officials to skip COP30”, E&E News Politico “Local transmission of clade 1b mpox cases detected in EU/EEA, ECDC urges renewed vigilance”, ECDC “EU-African Union to deepen cooperation at 24-25 November summit in Angola”, EEAS Fridays for Future Plans Global Climate Strike During COP30 in Brazil, Common Dreams Control Risks

*While the term Global South lacks a formal definition, it commonly refers to a diverse group of lower- or middle-income countries that share social, economic and historical characteristics. However, the term is interpreted differently across the globe and “leading” the Global South has become a political objective for some governments. In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.