Global Outlook
MARCH 2026
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Geopolitical conflict-related tensions will persist in the coming month, especially between Iran-US and Ukraine-Russia.
In our most likely scenario, diplomatic efforts between Iran-US stall and the US conducts limited strikes against Iranian nuclear and missile infrastructure. This prompts Iranian retaliation against US bases and shipping in the Gulf region. In turn, this triggers a rapid escalation into a broader regional confrontation. Meanwhile, Ukraine conflict ceasefire talks have met an impasse over the future of the eastern provinces of Ukraine. Momentum will likely restart should Russia acquiesce to limited concessions, though this remains unlikely in the coming month.
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The Christian Easter holiday (30 March-5 April) is not generally associated with elevated violent extremist threats globally, but the likelihood of terrorist attacks targeting churches and Christian communities will likely be elevated in hotspot regions.
The Middle East and North Africa will face a particularly heightened risk, especially in areas with mixed demographics, such as Syria and Israel.The Christian community was previously targeted in a high impact attack on a church in the Dweila neighbourhood of the capital Damascus (Syria) in June 2025.
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There are at least five nationally and regionally impactful elections in March.
In Germany, Baden‑Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate state elections will likely result in the far-right party AfD gaining significant voter share, albeit not enough to secure majorities. The extent to which Gen-Z protests in Nepal will change policy will be reflected in the 5 March general election. Colombia will hold legislative elections on 8 March, where voting will continue to suffer from elevated levels of political violence. In Slovenia, on 22 March the right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) led by former prime minister Janez Janša is likely to defeat the incumbent centre-left Freedom Movement (GS) of Prime Minister Robert Golob. In Congo (Brazzaville), President Denis Sassou Nguesso on 15 March will highly likely secure a first-round victory, in a political context marked by a weakened opposition.
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The biannual World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference (MC14) will take place on 26-29 March in Yaoundé (Cameroon), amid broader geopolitical fragmentation.
There will be limited substantial initiatives as the meeting is officially framed as a non-negotiating, reform-focused ministerial, emphasising reflection, institutional guidance and resetting expectations for the WTO’s future. Nevertheless, middle power attendees will likely seek to strike a tone of support for multilateralism more broadly.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“We’re not safe here anymore’’ – Syria’s Christians fear for future after devastating church attack”, BBC
“State elections could spell doom for Germany’s oldest party”, DW
“Members endorse draft MC14 decision on boosting small economies’ participation in trade”, WTO
“U.S. evacuates Israel embassy staff as Trump’s Iran decision looms”, Axios
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