Global Outlook
JANUARY 2026
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
US-Venezuela tensions underscore sustained global insecurity.
More aggressive sanctions targeting individuals and companies facilitating Caracas’s oil exports and the US’s escalating tanker seizure campaign in the Caribbean – which now extends beyond US-sanctioned vessels – will continue in the coming weeks. However, disruption to Venezuelan crude exports will have limited global impact, due to significant amounts of Venezuelan crude remaining on the water globally, particularly off its largest importer, China. Notably, Beijing purchases roughly 80% of Caracas’s crude, though this accounts for only about 4% of Beijing’s total imports.
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The World Economic Forum in Davos (Switzerland) on 19-23 January will bring together key decision-makers on monetary policy as the new year heralds concerns over limited if solid global growth.
Our strategic partner Oxford Economics assesses that the knock-on impact of sustained US tariffs on the US economy will be a key concern in 2026. Front-loading of orders of potentially targeted goods into the US muted the economic impact of tariffs in 2025, though this will likely ease through 2026. Uncertainty over long-term investment viability into artificial intelligence (AI) and related infrastructure will also persist.
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France will attempt to temper rising geopolitical tensions during its G7 presidency while dealing with deepening domestic political uncertainty.
A critical factor for geopolitical alignment during these summits is the weakening cohesion between the US and other members. US President Donald Trump continues to favour transactional, bilateral arrangements over multilateral agreements. Uncertainty on the outlook of the Ukraine conflict, including aid and ceasefire conditions, and the next phase of the agreement between Israel and Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas over Gaza (Palestinian Territories) will further strain relations.
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The sixth anniversary of the killing of Iran’s Gen Qasem Soleimani on 3 January will come amid developments in the Middle East that continue to drive elevated regional and global terrorism threats.
Middle Eastern insecurity will likely continue to motivate Islamist extremist threats in Europe, North America and Australia. The most likely scenario remains an attack by an individual or small group that uses crude tactics, such as stabbings against soft targets (crowds and public transport).
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“US pursuing third oil tanker near Venezuela, officials say”, Reuters
“Economic outlook 2026”, Oxford Economics
“US and Ukraine call Miami talks productive despite no breakthrough”, BBC
“Deadly attacks in Australia and Syria show a diminished ISIS is still a threat”, NBC
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