Monthly Outlook January 2026

Global Outlook

JANUARY 2026

SCroll down to explore

Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

US-Venezuela tensions underscore sustained global insecurity. More aggressive sanctions targeting individuals and companies facilitating Caracas’s oil exports and the US’s escalating tanker seizure campaign in the Caribbean – which now extends beyond US-sanctioned vessels – will continue in the coming weeks. However, disruption to Venezuelan crude exports will have limited global impact, due to significant amounts of Venezuelan crude remaining on the water globally, particularly off its largest importer, China. Notably, Beijing purchases roughly 80% of Caracas’s crude, though this accounts for only about 4% of Beijing’s total imports.

The World Economic Forum in Davos (Switzerland) on 19-23 January will bring together key decision-makers on monetary policy as the new year heralds concerns over limited if solid global growth. Our strategic partner Oxford Economics assesses that the knock-on impact of sustained US tariffs on the US economy will be a key concern in 2026. Front-loading of orders of potentially targeted goods into the US muted the economic impact of tariffs in 2025, though this will likely ease through 2026. Uncertainty over long-term investment viability into artificial intelligence (AI) and related infrastructure will also persist.

France will attempt to temper rising geopolitical tensions during its G7 presidency while dealing with deepening domestic political uncertainty. A critical factor for geopolitical alignment during these summits is the weakening cohesion between the US and other members. US President Donald Trump continues to favour transactional, bilateral arrangements over multilateral agreements. Uncertainty on the outlook of the Ukraine conflict, including aid and ceasefire conditions, and the next phase of the agreement between Israel and Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas over Gaza (Palestinian Territories) will further strain relations.

The sixth anniversary of the killing of Iran’s Gen Qasem Soleimani on 3 January will come amid developments in the Middle East that continue to drive elevated regional and global terrorism threats. Middle Eastern insecurity will likely continue to motivate Islamist extremist threats in Europe, North America and Australia. The most likely scenario remains an attack by an individual or small group that uses crude tactics, such as stabbings against soft targets (crowds and public transport).

In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

Sources: “US pursuing third oil tanker near Venezuela, officials say”, Reuters “Economic outlook 2026”, Oxford Economics “US and Ukraine call Miami talks productive despite no breakthrough”, BBC “Deadly attacks in Australia and Syria show a diminished ISIS is still a threat”, NBC Control Risks

Request a demo

Request a demo to see how Seerist can support your security and intelligence efforts.

Explore Seerist Today

The foresight to get ahead of what may come.

The insights with the most impact.

Accelerate speed to decision.

Global Outlook

NOVEMBER 2025

Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

South Africa will host the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Gauteng on 22-23 November and will aim to promote Global South* issues, including trade, debt distress, the green energy transition and security. However, the G20 since October 2024 has not been able to mutually agree on a stance in order to issue a communique. Canada on 11-12 November will hold the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in the Niagara region (Ontario). While the meeting was set to cover security, prosperity and economic resilience, the agenda will likely be at least somewhat overshadowed by global trade tensions.

Geopolitical dynamics will likely result in limited progress during the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) that will take place in Brazil from 10-21 November. The Trump administration will likely decide not to send a national delegation to COP30 – though some US state and private sector representatives will attend. Another key indicator of the shift in the US position was seen in a 22 October open letter from the US and Qatar urging the EU to repeal or make sweeping changes to its Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive to address US and Qatari concerns over gas exports.

There will be an uptick in climate protests, especially in Europe, North America and parts of Asia, coinciding with COP30. Youth-led climate movement Fridays for Future has called for a global climate strike on 14 November. The majority of these demonstrations will likely be peaceful and cause limited operational disruption. However, other activities intended to attract publicity, such as banner drops, graffiti, arson and sabotage, have increased in frequency in recent years, and will target companies linked to fossil fuels, including those in the energy, finance, insurance and technology sectors.

The EU-African Union Summit will take place on 24-25 November in Luanda (Angola), focusing on security, trade, green development, digitalisation and migration. This year marks 25 years of the Africa-EU Partnership. The EU will continue to view bolstering relations with African countries and regional alliances as a geopolitical priority. This strategy reflects broader geopolitical competition over critical resources in strategic regions between major powers such as the US and China.

Discover the Seerist Solution.

Learn more about delivering the trustworthy insights you need, right when you need them.

Explore Now

Sources: @realdonaldtrump, Truth Social “Full Calendar of Meetings 2025”, South Africa G20 Presidency “Republican-led states push Trump officials to skip COP30”, E&E News Politico “Local transmission of clade 1b mpox cases detected in EU/EEA, ECDC urges renewed vigilance”, ECDC “EU-African Union to deepen cooperation at 24-25 November summit in Angola”, EEAS Fridays for Future Plans Global Climate Strike During COP30 in Brazil, Common Dreams Control Risks

*While the term Global South lacks a formal definition, it commonly refers to a diverse group of lower- or middle-income countries that share social, economic and historical characteristics. However, the term is interpreted differently across the globe and “leading” the Global South has become a political objective for some governments. In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.