Global Outlook
JANUARY 2025
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Donald Trump’s second term as US president begins on 20 January and will have global ramifications.
The release of more details on his administration’s policies in the coming weeks will provide some clarity around the specific implications for businesses globally. In his first 100 days, he will likely focus on domestic issues. Some of the policies will be significantly different to those pursued by President Joe Biden, including in the areas of health, energy and climate change. Trump’s inauguration comes at a time of significant political instability in Germany and France, which will also have knock-on impacts on European policymaking.
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Canada will attempt to temper rising geopolitical tensions during its G7 presidency, while dealing with deepening domestic political uncertainty.
The main critical factor for geopolitical alignment is the return of Trump to the US presidency. Trump favours transactional, bilateral arrangements over multilateral agreements. This preference will likely create tensions especially around the Ukraine conflict, about which Trump has previously said he seeks a quick conclusion, increasing the likelihood of an unfavourable deal for Kyiv.
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Russia could secure a deal in January to keep its Mediterranean Task Force at the Syrian port of Tartous.
Russia established a military presence in Syria in 2015, with a naval base in Tartous and an air base in Hmeimim. The loss of the port would fundamentally compromise Russia’s ability to supply operations in Africa and to challenge NATO beyond its own immediate flanks. No other country on the Mediterranean is likely to offer Russia a stable alternative to Tartous.
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The fifth anniversary of the killing of Iran’s Gen Qasem Soleimani on 3 January comes as developments in the Middle East, including the Israel-Hamas conflict and Syria’s transition, will continue to drive elevated regional and global terrorism threats
More broadly, Middle Eastern insecurity will likely continue to motivate Islamist extremist threats in Europe, North America and Australia. The most likely scenario remains an attack by an individual or small group that uses crude tactics against soft targets, such as crowds and public transport.
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The World Economic Forum in Davos (Switzerland) on 20-24 January will bring together key decision-makers on monetary policy as the new year heralds concerns over sticky inflation.
While the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada and European Central Bank in December reduced interest rates, the momentum for further cuts is somewhat uncertain in the coming months. A critical factor is the extent to which Trump will implement tariffs. Geopolitical dynamics, including protectionist trade policies and regional conflicts, will continue to weigh on growth.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“Israel destroys targets across Syria as Russian vessels desert Tartus naval base”, Politico
“Canada’s turmoil is harbinger of diplomatic havoc in second Trump term”, The Guardian
“‘Danger of IS resurgence has doubled’ – Syria’s Kurds warn of group's comeback”, BBC
“Trump’s tariffs will likely exacerbate the slowbalisation globally”, Oxford Economics
“Renewed inflation fears stalk central bankers as markets shudder”, FT
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Global Outlook
DECEMBER 2024
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
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Terrorism threats will be elevated during the holiday season, including Christmas (24-26 December), Hanukkah (25 December-2 January), New Year (31 December-1 January) and Orthodox Christmas (7 January).
Islamist extremist terrorists, in particular, will have increased intent to carry out attacks, though the number of attacks will likely remain below previous highs. The most likely scenario would be a lone wolf or small group attack that uses crude tactics against soft targets, such as holiday markets and well-known religious landmarks.
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Donald Trump’s second term as US president begins on 20 January and will have global ramifications.
The release of more details on his administration’s policies in the coming weeks will provide some clarity around the specific implications for businesses globally. In his first 100 days, he will likely focus on domestic issues. Some of the policies will be significantly different to those pursued by President Joe Biden, including in the areas of health, energy and climate change. Trump’s inauguration comes at a time of significant political instability in Germany and France, which will also have knock-on impacts on European policymaking.
2
Canada will attempt to temper rising geopolitical tensions during its G7 presidency, while dealing with deepening domestic political uncertainty.
The main critical factor for geopolitical alignment is the return of Trump to the US presidency. Trump favours transactional, bilateral arrangements over multilateral agreements. This preference will likely create tensions especially around the Ukraine conflict, about which Trump has previously said he seeks a quick conclusion, increasing the likelihood of an unfavourable deal for Kyiv.
3
Russia could secure a deal in January to keep its Mediterranean Task Force at the Syrian port of Tartous.
Russia established a military presence in Syria in 2015, with a naval base in Tartous and an air base in Hmeimim. The loss of the port would fundamentally compromise Russia’s ability to supply operations in Africa and to challenge NATO beyond its own immediate flanks. No other country on the Mediterranean is likely to offer Russia a stable alternative to Tartous.
4
The fifth anniversary of the killing of Iran’s Gen Qasem Soleimani on 3 January comes as developments in the Middle East, including the Israel-Hamas conflict and Syria’s transition, will continue to drive elevated regional and global terrorism threats.
More broadly, Middle Eastern insecurity will likely continue to motivate Islamist extremist threats in Europe, North America and Australia. The most likely scenario remains an attack by an individual or small group that uses crude tactics against soft targets, such as crowds and public transport.
Talk to us.
See how Seerist delivers critical threat and risk intelligence to support strategic decision-making.
Schedule a Call