Global Outlook
AUGUST 2024
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
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Extremists will likely retain an elevated intent to mount attacks against the Olympic Games (France), and Western Europe more broadly in the coming weeks.
Recent arrests in France, including of suspected far-right extremists, Islamist extremists, and far-left activists highlight the varied nature of threat actors in Western Europe. Meanwhile, the disruption of the train and internet connection network in France on 26 and 28 July has shown that some threat actors have the ability to stage well-coordinated and disruptive attacks. Other likely tactics by threat actors will be small-scale or opportunistic violent attacks staged by an individual or small group targeting public spaces and other soft targets.
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
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US Vice-President Kamala Harris, who will be legally named the Democratic Party nominee as early as 1 August, will likely align with much of the foreign policy agenda under the administration of outgoing President Joe Biden during her campaign.
Harris will likely call for robust US support for Ukraine – in clear contrast to the Republican nominee, former president Donald Trump (2017-21). Furthermore, she will continue to highlight that as president she would fight Chinese influence globally. While she has voiced her support for Israel, she also struck a strong tone by relaying her “serious concern” for civilians in Gaza (Palestinian Territories) during a visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in July.
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US Atlantic and Gulf coast port negotiations add complexity to peak season supply chain concerns.
The master contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and employers will expire on 30 September, with strikes possible where agreement is not reached. Stakeholders across US-linked supply chains, already responding to congestion in the Asia Pacific region and disruption elsewhere along seaborne routes, will continue contingency planning to try and ensure the timely receipt of goods during peak shipping season. US port strikes would impact regional and global supply chains.
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The G20 energy transition workshop on 6 August, and the energy ministerial meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) on 16 August will likely focus on developing sustainable fuels and diversifying green technology supply chains.
Brazil and Peru, the respective hosts of these intergovernmental forums, will likely seek to highlight the role of Global South countries in the global energy transition, such as promoting innovation in green and low-carbon hydrogen. EU and US tariffs on Chinese clean energy technology, especially electric vehicles (EVs), will likely be a key topic of discussion along the sidelines of these events.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“French officials foil multiple plots to disrupt Paris 2024 Olympics”, France 24
“Kamala Harris Is Known Abroad for a Personal Touch , and Tough Talk”, NYT
“Last chance' for US importers to stock up before possible east coast port strike”, Loadstar
“Sherpa Track: Energy Transitions”, G20
Control Risks
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Global Outlook
JUNE 2024
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
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The G7 leaders will use their summit in Apulia (Italy) on 13-15 June to reiterate strong support for Ukraine.
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The terrorism threat will remain elevated in Western Europe in the coming weeks.
Transnational Islamist extremists have high intent to motivate and stage attacks against the Summer Olympic Games and Paralympic Games (July-September) in Paris (France) and UEFA European Champions League (until 14 July) in Germany. Strong European counterterrorism capabilities and heightened security around high-profile targets will likely mitigate the threat of coordinated, high-impact attacks. Any attack is more likely to be small-scale or opportunistic staged by an individual or small group targeting public spaces and other soft targets.
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Extreme temperatures including in North America, southern and eastern Asia and south-eastern Europe will continue to place pressure on working conditions and on infrastructure, especially healthcare and energy.
Critical agricultural commodities will continue to be impacted by severe weather. Hot and dry conditions in Ukraine and Russia combined with heavy rains in France, the UK and Ireland have placed pressure on global wheat supplies. Meanwhile, the first event of an anticipated bumper hurricane season took place in the Gulf of Mexico on 16-20 June, and the threat of disruption to regional energy output is elevated, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
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Four national elections are taking place in July.
The UK opposition Labour party will win and likely secure a large majority in the general election on 4 July. France on 30 June and 7 July will elect the lower chamber of parliament in snap elections. A fragile alliance of left-wing parties is most likely to form the next government, though the far-right National Rally will likely win the most seats. Incumbent President Paul Kagame in Rwanda will likely secure a fourth term on 15 July. In Venezuela where presidential elections are on 28 July, President Nicolás Maduro is facing a tough contest but will likely retain sufficient control over state institutions and the military to remain in power.
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