Global Outlook
JULY 2024
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
1
The terrorism threat will remain elevated in western Europe in the coming weeks.
Transnational Islamist extremists have high intent to motivate and stage attacks against the Summer Olympic Games and Paralympic Games (July-September) in Paris (France) and UEFA European Champions League (until 14 July) in Germany. Strong European counterterrorism capabilities and heightened security around high-profile targets will likely mitigate the threat of coordinated, high-impact attacks. Any attack is more likely to be small-scale or opportunistic staged by an individual or small group targeting public spaces and other soft targets.
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
2
Extreme temperatures including in North America, southern and eastern Asia and south-eastern Europe will continue to place pressure on working conditions and on infrastructure, especially healthcare and energy.
Critical agricultural commodities will continue to be impacted by severe weather. Hot and dry conditions in Ukraine and Russia combined with heavy rains in France, the UK and Ireland have placed pressure on global wheat supplies. Meanwhile, the first event of an anticipated bumper hurricane season took place in the Gulf of Mexico on 16-20 June, and the threat of disruption to regional energy output is elevated, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
3
Four national elections are taking place in July.
The UK opposition Labour party will win and likely secure a large majority in the general election on 4 July. France on 30 June and 7 July will elect the lower chamber of parliament in snap elections. A fragile alliance of left-wing parties is most likely to form the next government, though the far-right National Rally will likely win the most seats. Incumbent President Paul Kagame in Rwanda will likely secure a fourth term on 15 July. In Venezuela where presidential elections are on 28 July, President Nicolás Maduro is facing a tough contest but will likely retain sufficient control over state institutions and the military to remain in power.
4
Heads of state from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will gather in Washington DC (US) on 9-11 July to discuss security priorities, including its continued support for Ukraine.
Kazakhstan will host the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) for Eurasian countries on 3-4 July. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly attend. Turkiye will illustrate the diplomatic versatility of middle power nations by attending both summits.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
NATO Summit, NATO
“Paris police chief outlines security measures for Olympics”, AP
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, US Department of Agriculture
“Conservatives shed 32% of voters since January, FT poll finds”, Financial Times
Control Risks
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Global Outlook
JUNE 2024
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
1
The G7 leaders will use their summit in Apulia (Italy) on 13-15 June to reiterate strong support for Ukraine.
1
The terrorism threat will remain elevated in Western Europe in the coming weeks.
Transnational Islamist extremists have high intent to motivate and stage attacks against the Summer Olympic Games and Paralympic Games (July-September) in Paris (France) and UEFA European Champions League (until 14 July) in Germany. Strong European counterterrorism capabilities and heightened security around high-profile targets will likely mitigate the threat of coordinated, high-impact attacks. Any attack is more likely to be small-scale or opportunistic staged by an individual or small group targeting public spaces and other soft targets.
2
Extreme temperatures including in North America, southern and eastern Asia and south-eastern Europe will continue to place pressure on working conditions and on infrastructure, especially healthcare and energy.
Critical agricultural commodities will continue to be impacted by severe weather. Hot and dry conditions in Ukraine and Russia combined with heavy rains in France, the UK and Ireland have placed pressure on global wheat supplies. Meanwhile, the first event of an anticipated bumper hurricane season took place in the Gulf of Mexico on 16-20 June, and the threat of disruption to regional energy output is elevated, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
3
Four national elections are taking place in July.
The UK opposition Labour party will win and likely secure a large majority in the general election on 4 July. France on 30 June and 7 July will elect the lower chamber of parliament in snap elections. A fragile alliance of left-wing parties is most likely to form the next government, though the far-right National Rally will likely win the most seats. Incumbent President Paul Kagame in Rwanda will likely secure a fourth term on 15 July. In Venezuela where presidential elections are on 28 July, President Nicolás Maduro is facing a tough contest but will likely retain sufficient control over state institutions and the military to remain in power.
Talk to us.
See how Seerist delivers critical threat and risk intelligence you and your organization need to support strategic and operation decision-making.
Schedule a Call