Global Outlook
JULY 2025
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Brazil will host the BRICS+ Leaders’ Summit on 6-7 July and aims to focus on better co-operation among Global South countries.
Strengthening the forum amid growing geopolitical fragmentation remains a priority for its key members, even if Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are not attending – the former due to a reported scheduling conflict, the latter because of an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. The agenda will focus on global health co-operation; trade, investment and finance; climate change; governance of AI; multilateral peace and security architecture; and institutional development.
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US trade policy will remain a major source of global trade uncertainty, with the 8-9 July “reciprocal” tariff deadline unlikely to bring significantly higher levels of clarity.
The EU’s 90-day pause on its own retaliatory tariffs is scheduled to end on 14 July. Trade negotiations between the US and key partners will likely continue. While a June US-China tariff truce is set to extend until August, fundamental disagreements remain unresolved. US-China competition will continue to be a central driver of global economic risk.
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The EU-China Summit on 24-25 July will take place amid rising US-led geopolitical and trade tensions.
A breakthrough is unlikely, but China may use its trade leverage to seek concessions, specifically on electric vehicles. The talks reflect a pragmatic geopolitical shift – focusing on shared interests such as climate and trade, while avoiding contentious issues such as human rights. The EU will continue to use economic engagement as a tool for strategic dependence.
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The AI for Good Global Summit on 8-11 July in Geneva (Switzerland) will focus on accelerating innovation to enable the development of socially conscious AI.
Thought leaders in AI and global decision-makers will aim to identify practical applications of AI that may accelerate progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Other similar summits have taken place in recent years, including the 2024 African Union Intercontinental AI Strategy and the 2025 Paris AI Action Summit. Nevertheless, geopolitical competition will continue to affect co-ordination around the adoption of AI, including establishing global standards and regulations.
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Eight OPEC+ members on 6 July will meet virtually to discuss adjusting production in August.
Despite geopolitical developments in the Middle East prompting a temporary rise in Brent crude oil prices in June, broader demand continues to be dampened by sustained US inventory draws, low demand in Europe and Asia, and China’s favouring of Iranian crude. If an increase is agreed, it would bring the total rise in supply from OPEC+ to 1.78m bpd since April, equivalent to more than 1.5% of total global demand.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“Meeting of the EU Heads of Mission to China with Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission /Foreign Minister Wang Yi (25 June)”, European Commission
“Trump shrugs off July tariff deadline: ‘We can do whatever we want’”, CNBC
“BRICS 2025”, BRICS
“AI for Good”, AI for Good
“OPEC+ to Call the Shots Live as Russia Backs In-Meeting Decision”, OilPrice
Control Risks
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Global Outlook
JUNE 2025
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
1
The G7 Leaders and the NATO summits on 15-17 June and 24-26 June, respectively, will see members struggling to achieve significant multilateral agreements.
International peace and security, global economic stability and the digital transition will dominate the agendas. NATO will likely agree to boost defence spending targets to 5% of GDP – although uncertainty around what new ambition levels will be persists. Tensions driven by US President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, which has strained multilateralism, will undermine chances of more significant breakthroughs.
1
Brazil will host the BRICS+ Leaders’ Summit on 6-7 July and aims to focus on better co-operation among Global South countries.
Strengthening the forum amid growing geopolitical fragmentation remains a priority for its key members, even if Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are not attending – the former due to a reported scheduling conflict, the latter because of an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. The agenda will focus on global health co-operation; trade, investment and finance; climate change; governance of AI; multilateral peace and security architecture; and institutional development.
2
US trade policy will remain a major source of global trade uncertainty, with the 8-9 July “reciprocal” tariff deadline unlikely to bring significantly higher levels of clarity.
The EU’s 90-day pause on its own retaliatory tariffs is scheduled to end on 14 July. Trade negotiations between the US and key partners will likely continue. While a June US-China tariff truce is set to extend until August, fundamental disagreements remain unresolved. US-China competition will continue to be a central driver of global economic risk.
3
The EU-China Summit on 24-25 July will take place amid rising US-led geopolitical and trade tensions.
A breakthrough is unlikely, but China may use its trade leverage to seek concessions, specifically on electric vehicles. The talks reflect a pragmatic geopolitical shift – focusing on shared interests such as climate and trade, while avoiding contentious issues such as human rights. The EU will continue to use economic engagement as a tool for strategic dependence.
4
The AI for Good Global Summit on 8-11 July in Geneva (Switzerland) will focus on accelerating innovation to enable the development of socially conscious AI.
Thought leaders in AI and global decision-makers will aim to identify practical applications of AI that may accelerate progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Other similar summits have taken place in recent years, including the 2024 African Union Intercontinental AI Strategy and the 2025 Paris AI Action Summit. Nevertheless, geopolitical competition will continue to affect co-ordination around the adoption of AI, including establishing global standards and regulations.
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Sources:
“NATO’s Rutte embraces 5 percent defense spending goal”, Politico
“G7 2025 Kananaskis”, G7
“Brazil police say they thwarted potential attack at Lady Gaga concert”, The Washington Post
“Security Council Elections 2025”, UNSC
“UN Ocean Conference draft declaration fails to address the ocean crisis”, Greenpeace
“2025 UN Ocean Conference” UN
“June Climate Meetings (SB 62), UNFCCC
Control Risks
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.