Global Outlook
OCTOBER 2025
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
The second anniversary of the onset of the Israel-Hamas war on 7 October will likely prompt an uptick in Islamist extremist propaganda globally.
Islamist extremists will retain elevated intent to mount attacks against US and Israeli businesses and diplomatic facilities in Europe, North America and the Middle East and North Africa, irrespective of the reception of the announcement on 29 September of a US-proposed peace plan. The most likely threat scenario in Western countries remains a small-scale or opportunistic attack by an individual or small group targeting public spaces and other soft targets. Heightened security measures and strong counterterrorism capabilities around high-profile targets will likely detect and prevent most plots against high-profile events.
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Governments and civil society organisations will mobilise in October to prepare for COP30 in Belém (Brazil) in November.
Businesses will have the opportunity to engage with key stakeholders that will help shape the conference outcomes. Climate finance will be a main feature of the agenda. However, expectations are tempered. Fewer than 50 of the almost 200 jurisdictions that are signatories of the Paris Agreement have submitted new versions of their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Fewer stakeholders may also now attend due to difficulties with logistics in Belém, undermining potential breakthroughs.
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Mounting trade barriers will likely top the agenda during the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington DC on 13-18 October.
Further discussions will also take place between major economies on the sidelines. A September phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, along with a planned encounter at the APEC summit (31 October-1 November), signal continued diplomatic engagement. Meanwhile, the ASEAN Summit on 26-28 October in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia will convene leaders from ASEAN member states and from non-ASEAN countries, including Italy, Brazil and China.
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Six national elections will take place in October where outcomes are already broadly expected.
In Czechia, a government led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babis’s populist and pro-Russia ANO party is the most likely outcome of the legislative elections on 3 October, though ANO will likely need coalition partners, potentially including a far-right populist alliance. In the Netherlands, a centrist or centre-right coalition government will likely be formed after the early elections on 29 October, but negotiations are likely to run into 2026. Incumbent leaders and ruling parties will likely clinch victories in Cameroon, Côte D’Ivoire, Argentina and Tanzania.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“2025 Annual Meetings”, World Bank
“Nations Rethink Plans for Brazil Climate Summit as Costs Soar”, Bloomberg
“Will pivotal election turn Czech Republic into another anti-EU agitator?”, The Guardian
Control Risks
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Global Outlook
JUNE 2025
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
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The G7 Leaders and the NATO summits on 15-17 June and 24-26 June, respectively, will see members struggling to achieve significant multilateral agreements.
International peace and security, global economic stability and the digital transition will dominate the agendas. NATO will likely agree to boost defence spending targets to 5% of GDP – although uncertainty around what new ambition levels will be persists. Tensions driven by US President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, which has strained multilateralism, will undermine chances of more significant breakthroughs.
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Brazil will host the BRICS+ Leaders’ Summit on 6-7 July and aims to focus on better co-operation among Global South countries.
Strengthening the forum amid growing geopolitical fragmentation remains a priority for its key members, even if Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are not attending – the former due to a reported scheduling conflict, the latter because of an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. The agenda will focus on global health co-operation; trade, investment and finance; climate change; governance of AI; multilateral peace and security architecture; and institutional development.
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US trade policy will remain a major source of global trade uncertainty, with the 8-9 July “reciprocal” tariff deadline unlikely to bring significantly higher levels of clarity.
The EU’s 90-day pause on its own retaliatory tariffs is scheduled to end on 14 July. Trade negotiations between the US and key partners will likely continue. While a June US-China tariff truce is set to extend until August, fundamental disagreements remain unresolved. US-China competition will continue to be a central driver of global economic risk.
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The EU-China Summit on 24-25 July will take place amid rising US-led geopolitical and trade tensions.
A breakthrough is unlikely, but China may use its trade leverage to seek concessions, specifically on electric vehicles. The talks reflect a pragmatic geopolitical shift – focusing on shared interests such as climate and trade, while avoiding contentious issues such as human rights. The EU will continue to use economic engagement as a tool for strategic dependence.
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Sources:
“NATO’s Rutte embraces 5 percent defense spending goal”, Politico
“G7 2025 Kananaskis”, G7
“Brazil police say they thwarted potential attack at Lady Gaga concert”, The Washington Post
“Security Council Elections 2025”, UNSC
“UN Ocean Conference draft declaration fails to address the ocean crisis”, Greenpeace
“2025 UN Ocean Conference” UN
“June Climate Meetings (SB 62), UNFCCC
Control Risks
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
View Full COP30 Analysis