Global Outlook
OCTOBER 2025
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
The second anniversary of the onset of the Israel-Hamas war on 7 October will likely prompt an uptick in Islamist extremist propaganda globally.
Islamist extremists will retain elevated intent to mount attacks against US and Israeli businesses and diplomatic facilities in Europe, North America and the Middle East and North Africa, irrespective of the reception of the announcement on 29 September of a US-proposed peace plan. The most likely threat scenario in Western countries remains a small-scale or opportunistic attack by an individual or small group targeting public spaces and other soft targets. Heightened security measures and strong counterterrorism capabilities around high-profile targets will likely detect and prevent most plots against high-profile events.
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Governments and civil society organisations will mobilise in October to prepare for COP30 in Belém (Brazil) in November.
Businesses will have the opportunity to engage with key stakeholders that will help shape the conference outcomes. Climate finance will be a main feature of the agenda. However, expectations are tempered. Fewer than 50 of the almost 200 jurisdictions that are signatories of the Paris Agreement have submitted new versions of their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Fewer stakeholders may also now attend due to difficulties with logistics in Belém, undermining potential breakthroughs.
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Mounting trade barriers will likely top the agenda during the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington DC on 13-18 October.
Further discussions will also take place between major economies on the sidelines. A September phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, along with a planned encounter at the APEC summit (31 October-1 November), signal continued diplomatic engagement. Meanwhile, the ASEAN Summit on 26-28 October in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia will convene leaders from ASEAN member states and from non-ASEAN countries, including Italy, Brazil and China.
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Six national elections will take place in October where outcomes are already broadly expected.
In Czechia, a government led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babis’s populist and pro-Russia ANO party is the most likely outcome of the legislative elections on 3 October, though ANO will likely need coalition partners, potentially including a far-right populist alliance. In the Netherlands, a centrist or centre-right coalition government will likely be formed after the early elections on 29 October, but negotiations are likely to run into 2026. Incumbent leaders and ruling parties will likely clinch victories in Cameroon, Côte D’Ivoire, Argentina and Tanzania.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“2025 Annual Meetings”, World Bank
“Nations Rethink Plans for Brazil Climate Summit as Costs Soar”, Bloomberg
“Will pivotal election turn Czech Republic into another anti-EU agitator?”, The Guardian
Control Risks
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