Monthly Outlook November 2025

Global Outlook

NOVEMBER 2025

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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

South Africa will host the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Gauteng on 22-23 November and will aim to promote Global South* issues, including trade, debt distress, the green energy transition and security. However, the G20 since October 2024 has not been able to mutually agree on a stance in order to issue a communique. Canada on 11-12 November will hold the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in the Niagara region (Ontario). While the meeting was set to cover security, prosperity and economic resilience, the agenda will likely be at least somewhat overshadowed by global trade tensions.

Geopolitical dynamics will likely result in limited progress during the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) that will take place in Brazil from 10-21 November. The Trump administration will likely decide not to send a national delegation to COP30 – though some US state and private sector representatives will attend. Another key indicator of the shift in the US position was seen in a 22 October open letter from the US and Qatar urging the EU to repeal or make sweeping changes to its Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive to address US and Qatari concerns over gas exports.

There will be an uptick in climate protests, especially in Europe, North America and parts of Asia, coinciding with COP30. Youth-led climate movement Fridays for Future has called for a global climate strike on 14 November. The majority of these demonstrations will likely be peaceful and cause limited operational disruption. However, other activities intended to attract publicity, such as banner drops, graffiti, arson and sabotage, have increased in frequency in recent years, and will target companies linked to fossil fuels, including those in the energy, finance, insurance and technology sectors.

The EU-African Union Summit will take place on 24-25 November in Luanda (Angola), focusing on security, trade, green development, digitalisation and migration. This year marks 25 years of the Africa-EU Partnership. The EU will continue to view bolstering relations with African countries and regional alliances as a geopolitical priority. This strategy reflects broader geopolitical competition over critical resources in strategic regions between major powers such as the US and China.

*While the term Global South lacks a formal definition, it commonly refers to a diverse group of lower- or middle-income countries that share social, economic and historical characteristics. However, the term is interpreted differently across the globe and “leading” the Global South has become a political objective for some governments. In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

Sources: @realdonaldtrump, Truth Social “Full Calendar of Meetings 2025”, South Africa G20 Presidency “Republican-led states push Trump officials to skip COP30”, E&E News Politico “Local transmission of clade 1b mpox cases detected in EU/EEA, ECDC urges renewed vigilance”, ECDC “EU-African Union to deepen cooperation at 24-25 November summit in Angola”, EEAS Fridays for Future Plans Global Climate Strike During COP30 in Brazil, Common Dreams Control Risks

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Global Outlook

JUNE 2025

Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

The G7 Leaders and the NATO summits on 15-17 June and 24-26 June, respectively, will see members struggling to achieve significant multilateral agreements. International peace and security, global economic stability and the digital transition will dominate the agendas. NATO will likely agree to boost defence spending targets to 5% of GDP – although uncertainty around what new ambition levels will be persists. Tensions driven by US President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, which has strained multilateralism, will undermine chances of more significant breakthroughs.

Brazil will host the BRICS+ Leaders’ Summit on 6-7 July and aims to focus on better co-operation among Global South countries. Strengthening the forum amid growing geopolitical fragmentation remains a priority for its key members, even if Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are not attending – the former due to a reported scheduling conflict, the latter because of an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. The agenda will focus on global health co-operation; trade, investment and finance; climate change; governance of AI; multilateral peace and security architecture; and institutional development.

US trade policy will remain a major source of global trade uncertainty, with the 8-9 July “reciprocal” tariff deadline unlikely to bring significantly higher levels of clarity. The EU’s 90-day pause on its own retaliatory tariffs is scheduled to end on 14 July. Trade negotiations between the US and key partners will likely continue. While a June US-China tariff truce is set to extend until August, fundamental disagreements remain unresolved. US-China competition will continue to be a central driver of global economic risk.

The EU-China Summit on 24-25 July will take place amid rising US-led geopolitical and trade tensions. A breakthrough is unlikely, but China may use its trade leverage to seek concessions, specifically on electric vehicles. The talks reflect a pragmatic geopolitical shift – focusing on shared interests such as climate and trade, while avoiding contentious issues such as human rights. The EU will continue to use economic engagement as a tool for strategic dependence.

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Sources: “NATO’s Rutte embraces 5 percent defense spending goal”, Politico “G7 2025 Kananaskis”, G7 “Brazil police say they thwarted potential attack at Lady Gaga concert”, The Washington Post “Security Council Elections 2025”, UNSC “UN Ocean Conference draft declaration fails to address the ocean crisis”, Greenpeace “2025 UN Ocean Conference” UN “June Climate Meetings (SB 62), UNFCCC Control Risks

In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

View Full COP30 Analysis

The 18th European Public Health Conference (11-14 November) aims to mobilise public and private investment in health initiatives that support social, economic and environmental sustainability. The event coincides with warnings of two disease outbreaks in the region. On 23 October, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) urged renewed vigilance after locally acquired mpox cases (clade 1b) were confirmed in four countries. Bird flu is also spreading rapidly, with the highest number of countries in a decade reporting early outbreaks.