Global Outlook
NOVEMBER 2025
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
South Africa will host the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Gauteng on 22-23 November and will aim to promote Global South* issues, including trade, debt distress, the green energy transition and security.
However, the G20 since October 2024 has not been able to mutually agree on a stance in order to issue a communique. Canada on 11-12 November will hold the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in the Niagara region (Ontario). While the meeting was set to cover security, prosperity and economic resilience, the agenda will likely be at least somewhat overshadowed by global trade tensions.
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Geopolitical dynamics will likely result in limited progress during the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) that will take place in Brazil from 10-21 November.
The Trump administration will likely decide not to send a national delegation to COP30 – though some US state and private sector representatives will attend. Another key indicator of the shift in the US position was seen in a 22 October open letter from the US and Qatar urging the EU to repeal or make sweeping changes to its Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive to address US and Qatari concerns over gas exports.
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There will be an uptick in climate protests, especially in Europe, North America and parts of Asia, coinciding with COP30.
Youth-led climate movement Fridays for Future has called for a global climate strike on 14 November. The majority of these demonstrations will likely be peaceful and cause limited operational disruption. However, other activities intended to attract publicity, such as banner drops, graffiti, arson and sabotage, have increased in frequency in recent years, and will target companies linked to fossil fuels, including those in the energy, finance, insurance and technology sectors.
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The EU-African Union Summit will take place on 24-25 November in Luanda (Angola), focusing on security, trade, green development, digitalisation and migration.
This year marks 25 years of the Africa-EU Partnership. The EU will continue to view bolstering relations with African countries and regional alliances as a geopolitical priority. This strategy reflects broader geopolitical competition over critical resources in strategic regions between major powers such as the US and China.
*While the term Global South lacks a formal definition, it commonly refers to a diverse group of lower- or middle-income countries that share social, economic and historical characteristics. However, the term is interpreted differently across the globe and “leading” the Global South has become a political objective for some governments.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
@realdonaldtrump, Truth Social
“Full Calendar of Meetings 2025”, South Africa G20 Presidency
“Republican-led states push Trump officials to skip COP30”, E&E News Politico
“Local transmission of clade 1b mpox cases detected in EU/EEA, ECDC urges renewed vigilance”, ECDC
“EU-African Union to deepen cooperation at 24-25 November summit in Angola”, EEAS
Fridays for Future Plans Global Climate Strike During COP30 in Brazil, Common Dreams
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View Full COP30 Analysis
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The 18th European Public Health Conference (11-14 November) aims to mobilise public and private investment in health initiatives that support social, economic and environmental sustainability.
The event coincides with warnings of two disease outbreaks in the region. On 23 October, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) urged renewed vigilance after locally acquired mpox cases (clade 1b) were confirmed in four countries. Bird flu is also spreading rapidly, with the highest number of countries in a decade reporting early outbreaks.
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