Global Outlook
SEPTEMBER 2025
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
The anniversary of the 2001 terrorist attacks in the US on 11 September will likely coincide with increased propaganda from al-Qaida and its affiliates, including calls for attacks against the US, Israel and other countries.
The global Islamist terrorism threat remains elevated, driven by insecurity stemming from the Israel-Hamas conflict; despite Islamist extremist attacks declining since 2024, extremist intent remains high. The most likely attacks in Western countries will remain low-impact attacks staged by individuals or small groups against soft targets. Global Islamist extremist groups have limited capability to mount co-ordinated transnational attacks, though recent attacks and plots indicate a sustained intent to do so.
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Deep diplomatic divisions resulting from the Russia-Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflicts and intensifying geopolitical competition mean that signficant decisions are unlikely at the UN General Assembly (UNGA 80) on 9-23 September.
Australia, Canada, France and the UK have said they will recognise a Palestinian state during the forum – with some dependent on certain conditions. Several high-level meetings will also take place identifying paramount issues for the globe. A Climate Summit on 24 September will likely be the most important preparatory event ahead of the Conference of Parties (COP) 30 in Belem (Brazil) on 10-21 November.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping on 3 September will reportedly host Russian President Vladimir Putin for Victory Day in Beijing (China).
The event will likely serve to present China as a leader of the global south, specifically of those countries that are beyond Western influence. While this marks the formal surrender of Japan during the Second World War, no Western leaders will be among the 26 foreign heads of state and government attending – except for far-right and pro-Russia, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. Other leaders include North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, Iran’s President Masoud Pezashkian, and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto.
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Six national elections will take place in September where outcomes are already likely.
In Guyana, President Irfaan Ali of the People's Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) is likely to be re-elected on 1 September. However, opposition parties will likely secure a legislative majority. In Jamaica, Prime Minister Andrew Holness remains on track to win on 3 September. The incumbent centre-left Labour party in Norway is unlikely to secure a majority in parliamentary elections on 8 September, necessitating a coalition. General elections in Malawi and the Seychelles on 16 and 27 September, respectively, will be highly competitive, with resulting coalitions likely. The ruling pro-Western and pro-presidential Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) in Moldova will likely win the 28 September elections but faces the loss of its majority.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“General Assembly - High-level Week 2025”, United Nations
“26 foreign leaders to attend China's V-Day commemorations on Sept. 3”, Chinese Government
“Militants bombard Israel as country marks anniversary of Hamas attack”, FT
“European heavyweights come out in force to urge Moldovans to snub Putin”, Politico
Control Risks
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Global Outlook
JUNE 2025
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
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The G7 Leaders and the NATO summits on 15-17 June and 24-26 June, respectively, will see members struggling to achieve significant multilateral agreements.
International peace and security, global economic stability and the digital transition will dominate the agendas. NATO will likely agree to boost defence spending targets to 5% of GDP – although uncertainty around what new ambition levels will be persists. Tensions driven by US President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, which has strained multilateralism, will undermine chances of more significant breakthroughs.
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Brazil will host the BRICS+ Leaders’ Summit on 6-7 July and aims to focus on better co-operation among Global South countries.
Strengthening the forum amid growing geopolitical fragmentation remains a priority for its key members, even if Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are not attending – the former due to a reported scheduling conflict, the latter because of an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. The agenda will focus on global health co-operation; trade, investment and finance; climate change; governance of AI; multilateral peace and security architecture; and institutional development.
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US trade policy will remain a major source of global trade uncertainty, with the 8-9 July “reciprocal” tariff deadline unlikely to bring significantly higher levels of clarity.
The EU’s 90-day pause on its own retaliatory tariffs is scheduled to end on 14 July. Trade negotiations between the US and key partners will likely continue. While a June US-China tariff truce is set to extend until August, fundamental disagreements remain unresolved. US-China competition will continue to be a central driver of global economic risk.
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The EU-China Summit on 24-25 July will take place amid rising US-led geopolitical and trade tensions.
A breakthrough is unlikely, but China may use its trade leverage to seek concessions, specifically on electric vehicles. The talks reflect a pragmatic geopolitical shift – focusing on shared interests such as climate and trade, while avoiding contentious issues such as human rights. The EU will continue to use economic engagement as a tool for strategic dependence.
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Sources:
“NATO’s Rutte embraces 5 percent defense spending goal”, Politico
“G7 2025 Kananaskis”, G7
“Brazil police say they thwarted potential attack at Lady Gaga concert”, The Washington Post
“Security Council Elections 2025”, UNSC
“UN Ocean Conference draft declaration fails to address the ocean crisis”, Greenpeace
“2025 UN Ocean Conference” UN
“June Climate Meetings (SB 62), UNFCCC
Control Risks
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.