Global Outlook
AUGUST 2025
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
The deadline implemented by US President Donald Trump for global “reciprocal” tariffs is 1 August, and the US is likely to impose selective tariffs on a few trade partners if negotiations fail.
Japan, Indonesia, the UK, the EU and the Philippines have already reached trade deals with the US; China and the US have postponed reciprocal tariffs until 12 August, providing some clarity for other nations about tariff rates. Negotiations are ongoing between the US and other countries, including India, Thailand and Brazil.
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Control Risks assesses that Moscow is unlikely to agree to a robust and long-lasting ceasefire in Ukraine despite a new US deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire.
Trump on 28 July shortened his deadline for Russia to sign a ceasefire in Ukraine to 10-12 days (by around 8 August), after which he claimed Russia would face new sanctions. Trump threatened on 14 July to impose new sanctions on Russia and a 100% tariff on countries that buy Russian oil. Any secondary tariffs on Russian oil trading partners will likely impact global oil markets.
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Despite mounting international pressure, Israel is unlikely to agree to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza in the coming month.
France and the UK on 25 and 29 July, respectively, announced that they would recognise the Palestinian state during the UN General Assembly in September. More than 130 countries – mostly outside Europe and North America – formally recognise a Palestinian state. Pro-Palestinian protests will remain most active in Europe, North America and the Middle East.
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China will use the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) leaders’ summit in Tianjin on 31 August-1 September to present itself as an actor that values multilateral frameworks and to strengthen relationships with SCO allies – particularly Russia, Iran and Pakistan.
In SCO preparatory meetings, Beijing called for members to bolster co-operation amid surging protectionism and persistent regional conflict, among other issues. The SCO has ten members: Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
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Nihilistic Violent Extremism (NVE) will continue to be an emerging threat, especially among boys and young men, in Western countries.
France’s National Anti-Terrorist Prosecutor's Office (PNAT) on 29 July said that minors are increasingly planning terrorist attacks, with 11 minors charged with terrorism offences in 2025 as of 1 July. The NVE ideology rejects all religious, moral and social values, and adherents often feel that life is meaningless. The most likely attack scenario is a lone perpetrator using firearms or bladed weapons against soft targets (crowds, shopping centres or schools).
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“EU-US trade deal explained”, European Commission
“SCO Foreign Ministers Convene in Tianjin Ahead of September Summit”, The Astana Times
“Kremlin says it 'noted' Trump's statement on shorter deadline for a ceasefire in Ukraine”, Reuters
“Statement on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the recognition of a Palestinian State: 29 July 2025”, UK Government
“Violent videos draw more French teens into ‘terror’ plots, say prosecutors”, France24
Control Risks
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Global Outlook
JUNE 2025
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
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The G7 Leaders and the NATO summits on 15-17 June and 24-26 June, respectively, will see members struggling to achieve significant multilateral agreements.
International peace and security, global economic stability and the digital transition will dominate the agendas. NATO will likely agree to boost defence spending targets to 5% of GDP – although uncertainty around what new ambition levels will be persists. Tensions driven by US President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, which has strained multilateralism, will undermine chances of more significant breakthroughs.
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Brazil will host the BRICS+ Leaders’ Summit on 6-7 July and aims to focus on better co-operation among Global South countries.
Strengthening the forum amid growing geopolitical fragmentation remains a priority for its key members, even if Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are not attending – the former due to a reported scheduling conflict, the latter because of an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. The agenda will focus on global health co-operation; trade, investment and finance; climate change; governance of AI; multilateral peace and security architecture; and institutional development.
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US trade policy will remain a major source of global trade uncertainty, with the 8-9 July “reciprocal” tariff deadline unlikely to bring significantly higher levels of clarity.
The EU’s 90-day pause on its own retaliatory tariffs is scheduled to end on 14 July. Trade negotiations between the US and key partners will likely continue. While a June US-China tariff truce is set to extend until August, fundamental disagreements remain unresolved. US-China competition will continue to be a central driver of global economic risk.
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The EU-China Summit on 24-25 July will take place amid rising US-led geopolitical and trade tensions.
A breakthrough is unlikely, but China may use its trade leverage to seek concessions, specifically on electric vehicles. The talks reflect a pragmatic geopolitical shift – focusing on shared interests such as climate and trade, while avoiding contentious issues such as human rights. The EU will continue to use economic engagement as a tool for strategic dependence.
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The AI for Good Global Summit on 8-11 July in Geneva (Switzerland) will focus on accelerating innovation to enable the development of socially conscious AI.
Thought leaders in AI and global decision-makers will aim to identify practical applications of AI that may accelerate progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Other similar summits have taken place in recent years, including the 2024 African Union Intercontinental AI Strategy and the 2025 Paris AI Action Summit. Nevertheless, geopolitical competition will continue to affect co-ordination around the adoption of AI, including establishing global standards and regulations.
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Sources:
“NATO’s Rutte embraces 5 percent defense spending goal”, Politico
“G7 2025 Kananaskis”, G7
“Brazil police say they thwarted potential attack at Lady Gaga concert”, The Washington Post
“Security Council Elections 2025”, UNSC
“UN Ocean Conference draft declaration fails to address the ocean crisis”, Greenpeace
“2025 UN Ocean Conference” UN
“June Climate Meetings (SB 62), UNFCCC
Control Risks
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.