Global Outlook
AUGUST 2025
SCroll down to explore
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
The deadline implemented by US President Donald Trump for global “reciprocal” tariffs is 1 August, and the US is likely to impose selective tariffs on a few trade partners if negotiations fail.
Japan, Indonesia, the UK, the EU and the Philippines have already reached trade deals with the US; China and the US have postponed reciprocal tariffs until 12 August, providing some clarity for other nations about tariff rates. Negotiations are ongoing between the US and other countries, including India, Thailand and Brazil.
1
2
Control Risks assesses that Moscow is unlikely to agree to a robust and long-lasting ceasefire in Ukraine despite a new US deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire.
Trump on 28 July shortened his deadline for Russia to sign a ceasefire in Ukraine to 10-12 days (by around 8 August), after which he claimed Russia would face new sanctions. Trump threatened on 14 July to impose new sanctions on Russia and a 100% tariff on countries that buy Russian oil. Any secondary tariffs on Russian oil trading partners will likely impact global oil markets.
3
Despite mounting international pressure, Israel is unlikely to agree to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza in the coming month.
France and the UK on 25 and 29 July, respectively, announced that they would recognise the Palestinian state during the UN General Assembly in September. More than 130 countries – mostly outside Europe and North America – formally recognise a Palestinian state. Pro-Palestinian protests will remain most active in Europe, North America and the Middle East.
4
China will use the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) leaders’ summit in Tianjin on 31 August-1 September to present itself as an actor that values multilateral frameworks and to strengthen relationships with SCO allies – particularly Russia, Iran and Pakistan.
In SCO preparatory meetings, Beijing called for members to bolster co-operation amid surging protectionism and persistent regional conflict, among other issues. The SCO has ten members: Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
5
Nihilistic Violent Extremism (NVE) will continue to be an emerging threat, especially among boys and young men, in Western countries.
France’s National Anti-Terrorist Prosecutor's Office (PNAT) on 29 July said that minors are increasingly planning terrorist attacks, with 11 minors charged with terrorism offences in 2025 as of 1 July. The NVE ideology rejects all religious, moral and social values, and adherents often feel that life is meaningless. The most likely attack scenario is a lone perpetrator using firearms or bladed weapons against soft targets (crowds, shopping centres or schools).
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“EU-US trade deal explained”, European Commission
“SCO Foreign Ministers Convene in Tianjin Ahead of September Summit”, The Astana Times
“Kremlin says it 'noted' Trump's statement on shorter deadline for a ceasefire in Ukraine”, Reuters
“Statement on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the recognition of a Palestinian State: 29 July 2025”, UK Government
“Violent videos draw more French teens into ‘terror’ plots, say prosecutors”, France24
Control Risks
Request a demo
Request a demo to see how Seerist can support your security and intelligence efforts.
Explore Seerist Today
The foresight to get ahead of what may come.
The insights with the most impact.
Accelerate speed to decision.
SHARE
THE
REPORT