Global Outlook
JUNE 2025
SCroll down to explore
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
The G7 Leaders and the NATO summits on 15-17 June and 24-26 June, respectively, will see members struggling to achieve significant multilateral agreements.
International peace and security, global economic stability and the digital transition will dominate the agendas. NATO will likely agree to boost defence spending targets to 5% of GDP – although uncertainty around what new ambition levels will be persists. Tensions driven by US President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, which has strained multilateralism, will undermine chances of more significant breakthroughs.
1
2
There will be elevated extremist threats to LGBTQ+ communities and related assets during Pride events held worldwide throughout June.
Threats to the LGBTQ+ community are highest in North America and Europe given the presence of anti-LGBTQ+ extremists and the concentration of LGBTQ+ events and venues. The most likely threat scenario to Pride events remains a small-scale or opportunistic attack by an individual or small group targeting public spaces and other soft targets. However, heightened security measures and strong counterterrorism capabilities will likely detect and prevent most plots against high-profile events.
3
The UN General Assembly on 3 June will hold elections for the five rotating seats of the UN Security Council.
The only candidates are Congo (DRC) and Liberia for Africa, Bahrain from Asia-Pacific, Colombia from the Latin America and Caribbean group, and Latvia from Eastern Europe. UN Security Council reform has long been a key topic, with these arguments gaining momentum amid the failure by the institution to prevent or de-escalate conflicts in recent years. Notably, the use of veto powers by Russia and the US in the context of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars, respectively, has remained a key point of contention. As a result of the Security Council’s significantly weakened credibility, the international community will continue to turn to alternative forums, such as those of the G20, G7 and BRICS+.
4
The 2025 UN Ocean Conference (UNOC3) will convene in Nice (France) between 9-13 June.
Although stated ambitions are high, UNOC3 convenes amid geopolitical wrangling on ocean matters – notably on seabed mining – and divergence of views among stakeholders will likely act to limit more ambitious goals. Proceedings will be heavily scrutinised (NGO Greenpeace in May critiqued the UNOC draft declaration as falling far short of expectations); various environmental groups will attend the conference and demonstrations are likely to occur at and around the conference location in Nice.
5
The pre-COP30 2025 UNFCCC Climate Change Conference will take place from 16-26 June in Bonn (Germany), aiming to attract input from across a broad range of stakeholders on climate mitigation and adaption.
The session, which precedes COP30 in Belem (Brazil) in November, is designed to foster direct interaction between business leaders, negotiators and technical experts. This comes against the backdrop of the increasing pressure on businesses to play a more prominent role in the climate crisis given the compounding geopolitical and fiscal challenges facing governments worldwide.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“NATO’s Rutte embraces 5 percent defense spending goal”, Politico
“G7 2025 Kananaskis”, G7
“Brazil police say they thwarted potential attack at Lady Gaga concert”, The Washington Post
“Security Council Elections 2025”, UNSC
“UN Ocean Conference draft declaration fails to address the ocean crisis”, Greenpeace
“2025 UN Ocean Conference” UN
“June Climate Meetings (SB 62), UNFCCC
Control Risks
Request a demo
Request a demo to see how Seerist can support your security and intelligence efforts.
Explore Seerist Today
The foresight to get ahead of what may come.
The insights with the most impact.
Accelerate speed to decision.
SHARE
THE
REPORT