Monthly Outlook June 2025

Global Outlook

JUNE 2025

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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

The G7 Leaders and the NATO summits on 15-17 June and 24-26 June, respectively, will see members struggling to achieve significant multilateral agreements. International peace and security, global economic stability and the digital transition will dominate the agendas. NATO will likely agree to boost defence spending targets to 5% of GDP – although uncertainty around what new ambition levels will be persists. Tensions driven by US President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, which has strained multilateralism, will undermine chances of more significant breakthroughs.

There will be elevated extremist threats to LGBTQ+ communities and related assets during Pride events held worldwide throughout June. Threats to the LGBTQ+ community are highest in North America and Europe given the presence of anti-LGBTQ+ extremists and the concentration of LGBTQ+ events and venues. The most likely threat scenario to Pride events remains a small-scale or opportunistic attack by an individual or small group targeting public spaces and other soft targets. However, heightened security measures and strong counterterrorism capabilities will likely detect and prevent most plots against high-profile events.

The UN General Assembly on 3 June will hold elections for the five rotating seats of the UN Security Council. The only candidates are Congo (DRC) and Liberia for Africa, Bahrain from Asia-Pacific, Colombia from the Latin America and Caribbean group, and Latvia from Eastern Europe. UN Security Council reform has long been a key topic, with these arguments gaining momentum amid the failure by the institution to prevent or de-escalate conflicts in recent years. Notably, the use of veto powers by Russia and the US in the context of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars, respectively, has remained a key point of contention. As a result of the Security Council’s significantly weakened credibility, the international community will continue to turn to alternative forums, such as those of the G20, G7 and BRICS+.

The 2025 UN Ocean Conference (UNOC3) will convene in Nice (France) between 9-13 June. Although stated ambitions are high, UNOC3 convenes amid geopolitical wrangling on ocean matters – notably on seabed mining – and divergence of views among stakeholders will likely act to limit more ambitious goals. Proceedings will be heavily scrutinised (NGO Greenpeace in May critiqued the UNOC draft declaration as falling far short of expectations); various environmental groups will attend the conference and demonstrations are likely to occur at and around the conference location in Nice.

The pre-COP30 2025 UNFCCC Climate Change Conference will take place from 16-26 June in Bonn (Germany), aiming to attract input from across a broad range of stakeholders on climate mitigation and adaption. The session, which precedes COP30 in Belem (Brazil) in November, is designed to foster direct interaction between business leaders, negotiators and technical experts. This comes against the backdrop of the increasing pressure on businesses to play a more prominent role in the climate crisis given the compounding geopolitical and fiscal challenges facing governments worldwide.

In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

Sources: “NATO’s Rutte embraces 5 percent defense spending goal”, Politico “G7 2025 Kananaskis”, G7 “Brazil police say they thwarted potential attack at Lady Gaga concert”, The Washington Post “Security Council Elections 2025”, UNSC “UN Ocean Conference draft declaration fails to address the ocean crisis”, Greenpeace “2025 UN Ocean Conference” UN “June Climate Meetings (SB 62), UNFCCC Control Risks

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Global Outlook

MAY 2025

Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

Several geopolitical flashpoints demand monitoring throughout May. The ongoing Iran-US nuclear talks will be a key issue during US President Donald Trump’s anticipated visit to the Middle East from 13-16 May. The support of the Gulf Arab states for a deal increases the chances of talks progressing. Meanwhile, tensions between India and Pakistan will remain elevated – this comes after a terrorist attack by a Pakistan-based militant group in the disputed Kashmir region on 22 April, although both countries will be keen to avoid a full-blown conflict. More broadly, commercial stability and the ability to conduct business as usual will likely be subjected to rapid shifts in regional and global geopolitics.

Nine countries will hold national elections in May. Singapore and Australia (3 May), Albania (11 May), and Portugal (18 May) will likely see incumbent parties return to power – with Lisbon and Tirana returning minority centre-right governments and Canberra centre-left wing. Reflecting contentious political dynamics in Europe, presidential elections in Romania (4 May) and Poland (18 May) will likely go to second round votes. Nationalist Alliance for Romanian Unity (AUR) party candidate, George Simion, will likely lead in Romania, while the governing Civic Coalition (KO) Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who is also pro-EU, will likely succeed in Poland. Elections will also take place in the Philippines (12 May), Venezuela (25 May), and Suriname (25 May).

Events to mark May Day (also known as Workers’ or Labour Day) on 1 May will see high turnout globally, driven by persistent strained economic conditions, and pro-Palestinian and climate activism. In the US, an activist group critical of US President Donald Trump, 50501, will likely attract millions of peaceful participants in nationwide protests. Globally, protests will be largely peaceful, though some retail outlets may face incidental threats, especially at the periphery of major protests. There may be some clashes between police and protesters in some hotspot urban areas, including in France and Turkiye.

Global trade tensions will likely dominate the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ meeting in Banff (Alberta, Canada) on 20-23 May. It will be the first major summit for new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has taken a hard line on US tariffs in recent weeks. The meeting also follows the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgrading its global growth forecast to 2.8% for 2025 and 3% for 2026 off the back of escalating trade tensions. Geopolitical tensions will continue to undermine multilateral alignment in the coming months.

The 78th World Health Assembly will be held in Geneva (Switzerland) from 19-27 May, where countries will likely vote to adopt the Global Pandemic Treaty. However, negotiations will reportedly continue for another year on the practicalities of sharing samples and genetic sequences of pandemic pathogens and related products. The treaty reflects aims to combat vaccine inequity and supply competition in the event of another pandemic, though concerns over knowledge sharing and intellectual property will persist, especially within the private sector.

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Sources: “India test-fires missiles as tensions rise with Pakistan after Kashmir attack”, The Guardian “Key election dates, 2025 federal election”, Australia Election Commission “May Day Strong”, 50501 “Labour Day: Workers and activists take to the streets across the world” Euronews “G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting, G7 “WHO Member States conclude negotiations and make significant progress on draft pandemic agreement”, WHO Control Risks