Global Outlook
MAY 2025
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Several geopolitical flashpoints demand monitoring throughout May.
The ongoing Iran-US nuclear talks will be a key issue during US President Donald Trump’s anticipated visit to the Middle East from 13-16 May. The support of the Gulf Arab states for a deal increases the chances of talks progressing. Meanwhile, tensions between India and Pakistan will remain elevated – this comes after a terrorist attack by a Pakistan-based militant group in the disputed Kashmir region on 22 April, although both countries will be keen to avoid a full-blown conflict. More broadly, commercial stability and the ability to conduct business as usual will likely be subjected to rapid shifts in regional and global geopolitics.
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Nine countries will hold national elections in May.
Singapore and Australia (3 May), Albania (11 May), and Portugal (18 May) will likely see incumbent parties return to power – with Lisbon and Tirana returning minority centre-right governments and Canberra centre-left wing. Reflecting contentious political dynamics in Europe, presidential elections in Romania (4 May) and Poland (18 May) will likely go to second round votes. Nationalist Alliance for Romanian Unity (AUR) party candidate, George Simion, will likely lead in Romania, while the governing Civic Coalition (KO) Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who is also pro-EU, will likely succeed in Poland. Elections will also take place in the Philippines (12 May), Venezuela (25 May), and Suriname (25 May).
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Events to mark May Day (also known as Workers’ or Labour Day) on 1 May will see high turnout globally, driven by persistent strained economic conditions, and pro-Palestinian and climate activism.
In the US, an activist group critical of US President Donald Trump, 50501, will likely attract millions of peaceful participants in nationwide protests. Globally, protests will be largely peaceful, though some retail outlets may face incidental threats, especially at the periphery of major protests. There may be some clashes between police and protesters in some hotspot urban areas, including in France and Turkiye.
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Global trade tensions will likely dominate the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ meeting in Banff (Alberta, Canada) on 20-23 May.
It will be the first major summit for new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has taken a hard line on US tariffs in recent weeks. The meeting also follows the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgrading its global growth forecast to 2.8% for 2025 and 3% for 2026 off the back of escalating trade tensions. Geopolitical tensions will continue to undermine multilateral alignment in the coming months.
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The 78th World Health Assembly will be held in Geneva (Switzerland) from 19-27 May, where countries will likely vote to adopt the Global Pandemic Treaty.
However, negotiations will reportedly continue for another year on the practicalities of sharing samples and genetic sequences of pandemic pathogens and related products. The treaty reflects aims to combat vaccine inequity and supply competition in the event of another pandemic, though concerns over knowledge sharing and intellectual property will persist, especially within the private sector.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“India test-fires missiles as tensions rise with Pakistan after Kashmir attack”, The Guardian
“Key election dates, 2025 federal election”, Australia Election Commission
“May Day Strong”, 50501
“Labour Day: Workers and activists take to the streets across the world” Euronews
“G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting, G7
“WHO Member States conclude negotiations and make significant progress on draft pandemic agreement”, WHO
Control Risks
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