Monthly Outlook May 2025

Global Outlook

MAY 2025

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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

Several geopolitical flashpoints demand monitoring throughout May. The ongoing Iran-US nuclear talks will be a key issue during US President Donald Trump’s anticipated visit to the Middle East from 13-16 May. The support of the Gulf Arab states for a deal increases the chances of talks progressing. Meanwhile, tensions between India and Pakistan will remain elevated – this comes after a terrorist attack by a Pakistan-based militant group in the disputed Kashmir region on 22 April, although both countries will be keen to avoid a full-blown conflict. More broadly, commercial stability and the ability to conduct business as usual will likely be subjected to rapid shifts in regional and global geopolitics.

Nine countries will hold national elections in May. Singapore and Australia (3 May), Albania (11 May), and Portugal (18 May) will likely see incumbent parties return to power – with Lisbon and Tirana returning minority centre-right governments and Canberra centre-left wing. Reflecting contentious political dynamics in Europe, presidential elections in Romania (4 May) and Poland (18 May) will likely go to second round votes. Nationalist Alliance for Romanian Unity (AUR) party candidate, George Simion, will likely lead in Romania, while the governing Civic Coalition (KO) Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who is also pro-EU, will likely succeed in Poland. Elections will also take place in the Philippines (12 May), Venezuela (25 May), and Suriname (25 May).

Events to mark May Day (also known as Workers’ or Labour Day) on 1 May will see high turnout globally, driven by persistent strained economic conditions, and pro-Palestinian and climate activism. In the US, an activist group critical of US President Donald Trump, 50501, will likely attract millions of peaceful participants in nationwide protests. Globally, protests will be largely peaceful, though some retail outlets may face incidental threats, especially at the periphery of major protests. There may be some clashes between police and protesters in some hotspot urban areas, including in France and Turkiye.

Global trade tensions will likely dominate the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ meeting in Banff (Alberta, Canada) on 20-23 May. It will be the first major summit for new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has taken a hard line on US tariffs in recent weeks. The meeting also follows the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgrading its global growth forecast to 2.8% for 2025 and 3% for 2026 off the back of escalating trade tensions. Geopolitical tensions will continue to undermine multilateral alignment in the coming months.

The 78th World Health Assembly will be held in Geneva (Switzerland) from 19-27 May, where countries will likely vote to adopt the Global Pandemic Treaty. However, negotiations will reportedly continue for another year on the practicalities of sharing samples and genetic sequences of pandemic pathogens and related products. The treaty reflects aims to combat vaccine inequity and supply competition in the event of another pandemic, though concerns over knowledge sharing and intellectual property will persist, especially within the private sector.

In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

Sources: “India test-fires missiles as tensions rise with Pakistan after Kashmir attack”, The Guardian “Key election dates, 2025 federal election”, Australia Election Commission “May Day Strong”, 50501 “Labour Day: Workers and activists take to the streets across the world” Euronews “G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting, G7 “WHO Member States conclude negotiations and make significant progress on draft pandemic agreement”, WHO Control Risks

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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.

Ongoing talks are unlikely to facilitate the conclusion of the Ukraine conflict in the coming month. Ukraine, Russia and the US on 25 March released statements agreeing in principle to a truce in the Black Sea, but Russian preconditions include an easing of sanctions. Russia’s strategy likely remains focused on prolonging negotiations by making maximalist demands while maintaining a co-operative tone. The US will remain intent on presenting a peace deal, but Europe’s absence from the negotiating table, as well as fundamental disagreements over relations to Russia will continue to strain transatlantic relations in the coming month.

OPEC+ will likely extend its production plans to increase output, at least temporarily, during the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) on 5 April. However, this is likely to be dependent on steady oil prices and the success of seven of the core members reducing output to compensate for overproduction in previous cycles. Geopolitical dynamics, including global trade tensions, China’s economy, and the Ukraine conflict will also impact production strategies.

Extremist threats will likely increase around the Jewish Passover (Pesach) holiday (12-20 April) and the Christian Easter holiday (18-20 April). The most likely attack scenario will involve radicalised individuals acting autonomously and using crude methods, such as stabbings or vehicle rammings. For example, Canadian authorities in September 2024 arrested a man allegedly planning a terrorist attack targeting Jewish communities in New York City (US) to coincide with the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur. Easter is not generally associated with elevated violent extremist threats, though attacks have targeted religious services in some countries in the past (such as Sri Lanka in 2019).

An ongoing global trend of reducing or weakening climate-related regulations will increase activists’ intent to stage protests and direct actions during annual general meetings (AGMs) in the coming weeks. Activists will advocate for greater corporate accountability and climate actions. The vast majority of protest actions at AGMs will be peaceful, although activists will likely use more disruptive tactics at AGMs of companies that they have long targeted or that have recently published rollbacks of climate commitments. AGM-related protests are more likely to take place in Europe, the US, Canada and Australia.

The IMF and the World Bank on 21-26 April will discuss global financial concerns amid trade tensions and strained public finances at their annual spring meetings. Debt restructuring will likely be a critical topic. Ethiopia on 21 March reportedly reached a deal with its official creditors to restructure USD 8.4bn worth of public debt. With this deal, Ethiopia will join Ghana, Zambia and Chad, which have all restructured their debt under the G20 Common Framework in recent years. The G20 finance ministers’ meeting will take place alongside the spring meetings on 23-24 April. Global economic forecasts by the IMF, which will be launched alongside the April meeting, will be key reference points for companies and governments globally.

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Sources: “Outcomes of the United States and Ukraine Expert Groups On the Black Sea”, The White House “OPEC+ likely to proceed with planned May oil output hike, sources say”, Reuters “Disastrous Omnibus proposal erodes EU’s corporate accountability commitments and slashes human rights and environmental protections”, Joint Statement “Ethiopia clinches initial deal with official creditors amid bondholder standoff”, Reuters Control Risks