Global Outlook
NOVEMBER 2024
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
The US Presidential election on 5 November will have global ramifications.
Global financial markets will likely experience a period of volatility around the results, which will be exacerbated should these be delayed or contested in the following days and weeks. There will likely be elevated geopolitical risks in the coming weeks as state and non-state actors may exploit a distracted US to take strategic actions, such as in the Ukraine and Middle Eastern conflicts. Control Risks assesses that the outcome of the election will be dependent on turnout in seven key swing states, where each candidate is polling within the margin of error of the other.
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There will unlikely be significant breakthrough on climate change action at the 29th UN Climate Change conference (COP29) in Baku (Azerbaijan) on 11-22 November.
COP29 will focus on financing, with the aim of establishing the so-called New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance to bridge funding gaps in developing countries. Squeezed budgets among wealthier nations coupled with limited momentum for international cooperation given growing geopolitical competition means that negotiations will fail to produce ambitious results. Azerbaijan’s strict approach to public protests will limit security risks to attendees.
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As host, Brazil will likely prioritise climate change, biodiversity, green energy and global tax initiatives during the G20 Leaders’ Summit on 18-19 November.
Brazil will likely attempt to showcase its leadership on global challenges, especially those impactful to Global South countries. Nevertheless, a final consensus on all issues will likely be undermined by geopolitical fragmentation and divisive issues. Key international leaders will be present at the summit, reinforcing the G20 as a key diplomatic forum. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend because of an outstanding arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court.
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The International Network of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Safety Institutes on 20-21 November will see allies coordinate technical approaches to AI ahead of the 2025 AI Safety Summit in France.
The network members include Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Japan, Kenya, South Korea, Singapore, the UK and the US. Technical experts from each member state will discuss priority work areas, as well as advance global collaboration and knowledge sharing. The summit is unlikely to produce concrete outcomes, but alignment on key areas such as safety and national security will provide a basis for further negotiations in February.
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The final Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-5) on Global Plastics Treaty will take place on 25 November – 1 December.
While the creation of a global regulatory framework is unlikely due to diverging positions among countries, these negotiations will further raise global awareness of the issue. As a result, governments will likely introduce more regulations on plastic waste management and production in the coming months and years. Companies should prepare for increased litigation from environmental groups and government enforcement actions as these new regulations come into force.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“Currency volatility surges before US election”, Reuters
“UN Climate Change Conference: Baku – November 2024”, UN
“Lula eyes Brazil’s G20 summit with plan to tax billionaires”, Chatham House
“U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo and U.S. Secretary of State Blinken Announce Inaugural AI Summit”, US Department of Commerce
“How Will a Global Plastics Treaty Impact Trade?”, IISD
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