Global Outlook
NOVEMBER 2024
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
The US Presidential election on 5 November will have global ramifications.
Global financial markets will likely experience a period of volatility around the results, which will be exacerbated should these be delayed or contested in the following days and weeks. There will likely be elevated geopolitical risks in the coming weeks as state and non-state actors may exploit a distracted US to take strategic actions, such as in the Ukraine and Middle Eastern conflicts. Control Risks assesses that the outcome of the election will be dependent on turnout in seven key swing states, where each candidate is polling within the margin of error of the other.
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There will unlikely be significant breakthrough on climate change action at the 29th UN Climate Change conference (COP29) in Baku (Azerbaijan) on 11-22 November.
COP29 will focus on financing, with the aim of establishing the so-called New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance to bridge funding gaps in developing countries. Squeezed budgets among wealthier nations coupled with limited momentum for international cooperation given growing geopolitical competition means that negotiations will fail to produce ambitious results. Azerbaijan’s strict approach to public protests will limit security risks to attendees.
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As host, Brazil will likely prioritise climate change, biodiversity, green energy and global tax initiatives during the G20 Leaders’ Summit on 18-19 November.
Brazil will likely attempt to showcase its leadership on global challenges, especially those impactful to Global South countries. Nevertheless, a final consensus on all issues will likely be undermined by geopolitical fragmentation and divisive issues. Key international leaders will be present at the summit, reinforcing the G20 as a key diplomatic forum. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend because of an outstanding arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court.
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The International Network of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Safety Institutes on 20-21 November will see allies coordinate technical approaches to AI ahead of the 2025 AI Safety Summit in France.
The network members include Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Japan, Kenya, South Korea, Singapore, the UK and the US. Technical experts from each member state will discuss priority work areas, as well as advance global collaboration and knowledge sharing. The summit is unlikely to produce concrete outcomes, but alignment on key areas such as safety and national security will provide a basis for further negotiations in February.
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The final Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-5) on Global Plastics Treaty will take place on 25 November – 1 December.
While the creation of a global regulatory framework is unlikely due to diverging positions among countries, these negotiations will further raise global awareness of the issue. As a result, governments will likely introduce more regulations on plastic waste management and production in the coming months and years. Companies should prepare for increased litigation from environmental groups and government enforcement actions as these new regulations come into force.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“Currency volatility surges before US election”, Reuters
“UN Climate Change Conference: Baku – November 2024”, UN
“Lula eyes Brazil’s G20 summit with plan to tax billionaires”, Chatham House
“U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo and U.S. Secretary of State Blinken Announce Inaugural AI Summit”, US Department of Commerce
“How Will a Global Plastics Treaty Impact Trade?”, IISD
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Global Outlook
OCTOBER 2024
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
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Global terrorism threats will be elevated around the first anniversary of the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel (7 October) and major Jewish holidays throughout October.
The most likely threat scenario in Western countries is a small-scale or opportunistic attack by an individual or small group targeting a soft target or public space. Counter-terrorism efforts and heightened security around high-profile targets, including Jewish assets, will continue to mitigate the threat of sophisticated, high-impact attacks.
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The first official EU-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit (16 October) will highlight strategic priorities for the two regional blocs.
The Israel-Hamas conflict, alongside the escalating conflict between Israel and Lebanon-based Hizbullah, will be a key priority. We expect both blocs to emphasise de-escalation and regional stability. There will likely be a focus on areas of mutual strategic importance, including international supply chains and energy investments, building on existing initiatives around green energy technologies.
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The IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Washington DC (US) (21-26 October) will discuss falling inflation and debt management in developing economies.
The central banks of the US, UK, EU and Canada, among others, have eased interest rates in recent months, indicating the end of the global inflationary cycle that began in 2021. Nevertheless, developing economies continue to face significant public debt pressures, and global debt relief and restructuring negotiations will be a focus at the meetings.
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The UN Biodiversity Conference (21 October-1 November) will assess and work to implement conservation pledges.
In 2022, countries agreed to 23 targets for 2030 and four broad goals for 2050, including conserving 30% of land and water areas, reducing chemical and plastic pollution, and mobilizing USD 200bn to protect biodiversity. Financing will be a top priority of the summit: countries have pledged to provide at least USD 30bn annually by 2030 to support conservation in developing countries, but so far only about USD 400m has been raised.
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Russia will host the BRICS Leaders’ Summit in Kazan (Russia) (22-24 October) – the first since membership expanded in 2024.
Russia will use the summit to show that it has not been isolated by Western sanctions and to present BRICS as an alternative global governance institution. Several aspiring BRICS members are expected to send delegations, although another major expansion is unlikely. The group will continue to discuss financial mechanisms to facilitate trade among BRICS members.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Talk to us.
See how Seerist delivers critical threat and risk intelligence to support strategic decision-making.
Schedule a Call