Global Outlook
October 2024
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Global terrorism threats will be elevated around the first anniversary of the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel (7 October) and major Jewish holidays throughout October.
The most likely threat scenario in Western countries is a small-scale or opportunistic attack by an individual or small group targeting a soft target or public space. Counter-terrorism efforts and heightened security around high-profile targets, including Jewish assets, will continue to mitigate the threat of sophisticated, high-impact attacks.
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The first official EU-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit (16 October) will highlight strategic priorities for the two regional blocs.
The Israel-Hamas conflict, alongside the escalating conflict between Israel and Lebanon-based Hizbullah, will be a key priority. We expect both blocs to emphasise de-escalation and regional stability. There will likely be a focus on areas of mutual strategic importance, including international supply chains and energy investments, building on existing initiatives around green energy technologies.
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The IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Washington DC (US) (21-26 October) will discuss falling inflation and debt management in developing economies.
The central banks of the US, UK, EU and Canada, among others, have eased interest rates in recent months, indicating the end of the global inflationary cycle that began in 2021. Nevertheless, developing economies continue to face significant public debt pressures, and global debt relief and restructuring negotiations will be a focus at the meetings.
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The UN Biodiversity Conference (21 October-1 November) will assess and work to implement conservation pledges.
In 2022, countries agreed to 23 targets for 2030 and four broad goals for 2050, including conserving 30% of land and water areas, reducing chemical and plastic pollution, and mobilizing USD 200bn to protect biodiversity. Financing will be a top priority of the summit: countries have pledged to provide at least USD 30bn annually by 2030 to support conservation in developing countries, but so far only about USD 400m has been raised.
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Russia will host the BRICS Leaders’ Summit in Kazan (Russia) (22-24 October) – the first since membership expanded in 2024.
Russia will use the summit to show that it has not been isolated by Western sanctions and to present BRICS as an alternative global governance institution. Several aspiring BRICS members are expected to send delegations, although another major expansion is unlikely. The group will continue to discuss financial mechanisms to facilitate trade among BRICS members.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
“Did central banks get the inflation crisis right?”, Financial Times
“Finance and Biodiversity Day at COP16”, UN EPFI
“Pakistani National Charged for Plotting Terrorist Attack in New York City in Support of ISIS”, US Department of Justice
“A GCC-EU agenda for regional peace”, Arab News
“Russia pledges to back Pakistan's BRICS membership”, VOA
Control Risks
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We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Global Outlook
SEPTEMBER 2024
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
1
The anniversary of the 2001 terrorist attacks in the US on 11 September will likely coincide with increased propaganda from al-Qaida and its affiliates, including calls for attacks against the US, Israel and other countries.
The global terrorism threat remains elevated driven by insecurity stemming from the Israel-Hamas conflict, including around major events like the Paralympic Games in France (28 August–8 September) and headline music concerts. The most likely attacks in Western countries will remain low-impact attacks staged by individuals or small groups against soft targets. Global Islamist extremist groups have limited capability to mount co-ordinated transnational attacks, though recent attacks and plots indicate a sustained intent to do so.
1
Global terrorism threats will be elevated around the first anniversary of the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel (7 October) and major Jewish holidays throughout October.
The most likely threat scenario in Western countries is a small-scale or opportunistic attack by an individual or small group targeting a soft target or public space. Counter-terrorism efforts and heightened security around high-profile targets, including Jewish assets, will continue to mitigate the threat of sophisticated, high-impact attacks.
2
The first official EU-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit (16 October) will highlight strategic priorities for the two regional blocs.
The Israel-Hamas conflict, alongside the escalating conflict between Israel and Lebanon-based Hizbullah, will be a key priority. We expect both blocs to emphasise de-escalation and regional stability. There will likely be a focus on areas of mutual strategic importance, including international supply chains and energy investments, building on existing initiatives around green energy technologies.
3
The IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Washington DC (US) (21-26 October) will discuss falling inflation and debt management in developing economies.
The central banks of the US, UK, EU and Canada, among others, have eased interest rates in recent months, indicating the end of the global inflationary cycle that began in 2021. Nevertheless, developing economies continue to face significant public debt pressures, and global debt relief and restructuring negotiations will be a focus at the meetings.
4
The UN Biodiversity Conference (21 October-1 November) will assess and work to implement conservation pledges.
In 2022, countries agreed to 23 targets for 2030 and four broad goals for 2050, including conserving 30% of land and water areas, reducing chemical and plastic pollution, and mobilizing USD 200bn to protect biodiversity. Financing will be a top priority of the summit: countries have pledged to provide at least USD 30bn annually by 2030 to support conservation in developing countries, but so far only about USD 400m has been raised.
Sources:
“Did central banks get the inflation crisis right?”, Financial Times
“Finance and Biodiversity Day at COP16”, UN EPFI
“Pakistani National Charged for Plotting Terrorist Attack in New York City in Support of ISIS”, US Department of Justice
“A GCC-EU agenda for regional peace”, Arab News
“Russia pledges to back Pakistan's BRICS membership”, VOA
Control Risks
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Talk to us.
See how Seerist delivers critical threat and risk intelligence you and your organization need to support strategic and operation decision-making.
Schedule a Call