Global Outlook
SEPTEMBER 2024
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Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
1
The anniversary of the 2001 terrorist attacks in the US on 11 September will likely coincide with increased propaganda from al-Qaida and its affiliates, including calls for attacks against the US, Israel and other countries.
The global terrorism threat remains elevated driven by insecurity stemming from the Israel-Hamas conflict, including around major events like the Paralympic Games in France (28 August–8 September) and headline music concerts. The most likely attacks in Western countries will remain low-impact attacks staged by individuals or small groups against soft targets. Global Islamist extremist groups have limited capability to mount co-ordinated transnational attacks, though recent attacks and plots indicate a sustained intent to do so.
2
Geopolitical competition and deep diplomatic divisions resulting from the Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict mean that significant decisions are unlikely at the UN General Assembly (UNGA 79) on 10-24 September.
A separate “Summit of the Future” will take place alongside the UNGA, which will likely be the most important preparation event ahead of the Conference of Parties (COP) 29 in Baku (Azerbaijan) from 11-24 November. The Summit will focus on sustainability and finance, security, digitisation and younger generations, and preparing and responding to current and future challenges.
3
The UN will host a high-level meeting on the threats from rising sea levels on 25 September, which comes amid sustained record-breaking high temperatures globally.
The meeting follows a UN Security Council debate in February – the first of its kind – on sea levels and their impact on security, migration and infrastructure. The UN Secretary General on 25 July also warned that extreme heat is already causing economic damage, exacerbating inequalities and increasing mortality rates linked to severe weather.
4
Five national elections of note are taking place in September.
In Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev’s New Azerbaijan Party is highly likely to win the parliamentary elections on 1 September. The Sri Lankan presidential election (21 September) will likely be a four-horse race, with no candidate expected to gain 50% of the popular vote, prompting heightened political instability. Algerian presidential incumbent Abdelmadjid Tebboune, on 7 September will likely secure victory. Austria will hold parliamentary elections on 29 September, and Jordan will hold a general election on 10 September.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources:
Summit of the Future, UN
“Jihadi Outlet Linked to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Resumes Dissemination of ‘Inspire’ Threat Posters: Likelihood of New 9/11 Attack ‘Greater Today than Ever Before,’ Calls to Target WH Staff, U.S. Representatives”, [MEMRI]
High-Level Meeting on Sea Level Rise, UN
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1
Extremists will likely retain an elevated intent to mount attacks against the Olympic Games (France), and Western Europe more broadly in the coming weeks.
Recent arrests in France, including of suspected far-right extremists, Islamist extremists, and far-left activists highlight the varied nature of threat actors in Western Europe. Meanwhile, the disruption of the train and internet connection network in France on 26 and 28 July has shown that some threat actors have the ability to stage well-coordinated and disruptive attacks. Other likely tactics by threat actors will be small-scale or opportunistic violent attacks staged by an individual or small group targeting public spaces and other soft targets.
2
US Vice-President Kamala Harris, who will be legally named the Democratic Party nominee as early as 1 August, will likely align with much of the foreign policy agenda under the administration of outgoing President Joe Biden during her campaign.
Harris will likely call for robust US support for Ukraine – in clear contrast to the Republican nominee, former president Donald Trump (2017-21). Furthermore, she will continue to highlight that as president she would fight Chinese influence globally. While she has voiced her support for Israel, she also struck a strong tone by relaying her “serious concern” for civilians in Gaza (Palestinian Territories) during a visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in July.
3
US Atlantic and Gulf coast port negotiations add complexity to peak season supply chain concerns.
The master contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and employers will expire on 30 September, with strikes possible where agreement is not reached. Stakeholders across US-linked supply chains, already responding to congestion in the Asia Pacific region and disruption elsewhere along seaborne routes, will continue contingency planning to try and ensure the timely receipt of goods during peak shipping season. US port strikes would impact regional and global supply chains.
4
The G20 energy transition workshop on 6 August, and the energy ministerial meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) on 16 August will likely focus on developing sustainable fuels and diversifying green technology supply chains.
razil and Peru, the respective hosts of these intergovernmental forums, will likely seek to highlight the role of Global South countries in the global energy transition, such as promoting innovation in green and low-carbon hydrogen. EU and US tariffs on Chinese clean energy technology, especially electric vehicles (EVs), will likely be a key topic of discussion along the sidelines of these events.
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In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Global Outlook
AUGUST 2024
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks