NATO Summit 2025
24-25 June 2025
The Hague, Netherlands
Seerist Event Report
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NATO Summit 2025
The NATO Summit is scheduled to take place on 24-25 June, at the World Forum in The Hague, Netherlands, marking the first time the country will host a NATO Summit.
The summit will convene approximately 45 heads of state and government, 90 defense and foreign ministers, and around 6,000 delegation members. Discussions will focus on global developments impacting Euro-Atlantic security, the introduction of new policies, and the strengthening of alliances. The summit will also address increasing defense spending and support for Ukraine.
Control Risks assesses members will agree to a higher minimum level of defense and security spending, likely 5% of national GDP by 2032, split into 3.5% on defense and equipment and 1.5% for separate items such as infrastructure and cybersecurity. The increase from 2.0% is likely intended to placate the US so that President Donald Trump remains engaged in the alliance. It is unclear how most countries will meet these significantly higher targets.
Given the high-profile nature of the event, authorities plan to deploy 27,000 police officers, marking the largest security operation in Dutch history. Security measures will include road closures on major routes such as the A4 and A5 to ensure the safe transit of summit attendees. These measures are expected to cause significant traffic disruptions in and around The Hague.
Historically, NATO summits have attracted various protests. Given this precedent, it is anticipated that the 2025 summit in The Hague may also draw attention from activist groups, potentially leading to demonstrations and associated disruptions in the vicinity of the event. Seerist has highlighted five protests planned in The Hague during the Summit in the Future Events Section.
EVENT OVERVIEW
Click on a Seerist feature below to learn more about The Hague stability.
PulseAI identifies micro-changes in stability and looks for anomalies to alert users to actions that may pose a risk or present an opportunity to their operation. Pulse AI triggered alerts notify analysts of important developments, speed the process of finding and accessing mission-relevant data, and enable analysts to maintain situational awareness.
The PulseAI History and Trendline in The Hague, The Netherlands shows that over the past 60 days, stability has ranged between 66.8 and 74.8 with a slight downward trend, including more significant decreases on May 18 and June 8.
EventsAI Sentiment uses natural language processing to identify and categorize emotions expressed in textual data. EventsAI Sentiment saw significant negative sentiment and a spike in Anger on May 18, likely due to a pro-Palestine protest with a heavy police presence, and May 19, likely due to minor crime.
EventsAI Emotion uses natural language processing to identify and categorize emotions expressed in textual data. EventsAI Emotion also saw spikes in Anger on April 28, due to a train blockade in neighboring Rotterdam, and Fear on June 5, likely due to the Dutch government collapse following the right-wing leader’s (Geert Wilders’) exit from a fragile coalition.
The Hague
The Hague is the Netherlands’ administrative and royal capital, and functions as the seat of government. The city lies on the coast in the west of the Netherlands and has a service-oriented economy – more than a quarter of jobs are directly provided by the Dutch government or international institutions. The city is home to Europol, the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court and various other international institutions.
The city has excellent transport infrastructure and is well served by public transport, though traffic congestion can occur, especially at peak hours. The Netherlands’ largest airport, Schiphol, is accessible by train from the main train station.
city profile
Source: Seerist and Control Risks’ Netherlands Country Profile
Crime
The city is generally safe and has low crime levels. The most likely threat to travelers is petty crime such as pickpocketing or bag snatching.
Such crime is most common in crowded areas, on public transport and in the city centre and near to Centraal station.
Travelers should exercise increased caution in the neighborhoods of Schilderswijk and Transvaal at night.
Additionally, gang activity has been reported in the Schipperskwartier neighborhood, though there is heavy police surveillance to combat such illicit activity.
Unrest
Protests in The Hague are frequent due to its status as the seat of the Dutch government and the presence of international institutions. While protests can lead to travel disruption, they are unlikely to escalate into widespread unrest and rarely involve major acts of violence, posing a low risk to visitors.
Protests typically occur in the vicinity of the Binnehof, a group of historic buildings surrounding an open space and the site of the two houses of Parliament, and directly outside the Parliament building.
Demonstrations also occur at the Malieveld near Centraal station.
Activists sometimes stage protests near prominent institutions, such as the International Court of Justice.
Terrorism
The Hague is a credible terrorist target for extremist groups given the presence of national government and international institutions, but the threat of attacks remains limited.
Terrorism incidents in the city are most likely to be unsophisticated, low-cost attacks using bladed weapons or vehicles and perpetrated by radicalised individuals.
Successful attacks are more likely to be indiscriminate and target open areas.
Crime
Unrest
Terrorism
Map of Paris City Center + Paris PulseAI Score
NATO Summit Venue: World Forum
The yellow areas of the map highlight areas of the city where security threats are relatively higher than elsewhere in the city. Personnel are advised to take additional precautions if visiting these areas or to avoid them entirely.
Note: The venue for the NATO Summit is at least 4.5km away from these highlighted areas.
International Court of Justice
Malieveld
Binnehof
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Common Locations for Unrest
Unrest Events near the World Forum
From January 1, 2024 to June 1, 2025, Seerist verified 71 unrest events in The Hague:
85% of unrest events verified in The Hague targeted the Government sector
49% of unrest events were held in the vicinity of an embassy, the International Court of Justice, or another government asset.
70% of unrest events were associated with other countries and 45% of unrest events were connected to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.
VENUE FOCUS
Verified Unrest Events in 8km radius
Click green circles for Verified Event.
NATO Summit Venue: World Forum
NATO Summit Venue: World Forum
The venue for the NATO Summit, the World Forum, is surrounded by embassies, government buildings, and other assets that could be potential targets of unrest including:
European Union buildings
Embassies of NATO-member states
Embassies of countries with a higher likelihood of being targeted for unrest, like Israel or China.
Crime levels
The city is generally safe and has low crime levels. The most likely threat to travelers is petty crime such as pickpocketing or bag snatching. However, Seerist has verified notable crime events since January 1, 2024, in which crimes were politically motivated, target a government asset or embassy, and/or include disruption or vandalism.
Future Events
Planned protests during the NATO Summit reflect a mix of anti-war, pro-Palestinian, and anti-NATO agendas—creating a fluid risk environment near the venue. The convergence of ideologically diverse actors raises uncertainty for organizations with assets, personnel, or visibility in The Hague.
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NATO Summit Venue: World Forum
2.5km away from the NATO Summit venue
3.5km away from the NATO Summit venue
2024 NATO Summit in Washington, D.C.
Seerist verified twelve unrest events in Washington, D.C. from July 1 to July 15, 2024, seven of which were during the 2024 NATO Summit, from July 9-11.
In the six months prior to the 2024 NATO Summit, Seerist verified 79 unrest events in Washington, D.C., averaging 3 unrest events a week.
HISTORICAL COMPARISON
NATO Summit 2024 Venue: Walter E. Washington Convention Center
Verified Events in Washington, D.C. from July 1 to July 15, 2024
During the NATO Summit 2024, Washington, D.C. saw a 100% increase in unrest events per week from the average over the previous six months. None of the verified unrest events included violence, blockades, or vandalism.
The current six-month average of unrest events in the Hague is 1.38 unrest events per week.
NATO Summit 2024
100% increase in average weekly unrest
Source: Seerist
Verified Unrest Events in Washington, D.C. from January 1 to July 31, 2024
Monitor Developments Associated with the Summit with EventsAI
Seerist allows users to build a simple search using keywords to find EventsAI stories related to the NATO Summit in the days and weeks before it takes place
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Search Result Examples
Source: Seerist
Users can filter search results for language or country of origin to manage misinformation risks
Users can search for Future Events planned in The Hague, as well as related protests abroad
Users can use EmotionsAI to filter for results determined to include Negative Sentiment or emotions such as Fear or Anger
Users can filter search results for language or country of origin to manage misinformation risks
Users can search for Future Events planned in The Hague, as well as related protests abroad
Users can use EmotionsAI to filter for results determined to include Negative Sentiment or emotions such as Fear or Anger
Monitor Impacts to Transportation with EventsAI
Use Seerist’s search feature to extract timely, ‘high’ and ‘medium’ reliability news and social to better understand the rapidly evolving transportation landscape and potential operational impacts during the NATO Summit.
Map of Selected Planned Protests
Click numbers to view Future Events
Map of the Netherlands depicting transportation-centric events related to the NATO Summit
Sample Search
Control Risks Analysis
Big Picture series: Is a supranational solution the answer to European countries’ defence spending shortfalls?
Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency on 20 January has ramped up European concerns over how the region can defend itself with diminished US support. Ahead of a NATO summit in June, European leaders are considering mechanisms to significantly upgrade defence capabilities.
The diminishing US security presence in Europe has led the EU to step up its involvement in defence policy. However, measures announced in March are insufficient to fill the gap.
NATO will likely increase its target for national defence spending from 2% to 5% of GDP in June. Many European states will not be able to reach this target.
To significantly improve the European defence landscape, a supranational solution is likely. This will likely be a non-EU initiative to overcome opposition from member states that are less critical of Russia.
European defence companies will likely have a larger procurement market to operate in by the end of 2025, with governments incentivised to expand contracts beyond national champions.
Source: Control Risks analysis published on 13 May 2025
Read More Analysis
International pressure Trump suspended all military aid to Ukraine on 3 March and has since approved only USD 50m in military spending as part of a raw minerals deal on 30 April. For the first time since the Second World War, Europe is facing the prospect of being unable to rely on the US for military cover.
The European Commission on 18 March presented a white paper to increase European defence investment. The strategy made clear Europe’s desire to enhance self-sufficiency and reflects the fact that US involvement in weapons procurement faces an uncertain future. It included a relaxation of state aid rules for defence purposes and proposed a EUR 150bn (USD 169bn) weapons procurement fund open exclusively to EU member states and the six third countries that have a defence agreement in place with the EU. The mechanisms are a notable step toward Brussels taking on more responsibility for defence, traditionally a strictly national policy area. However, the proposals alone will do little to make up for a diminishing US presence in Europe. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has said that members will need to spend “considerably more” than the target of 3% of GDP on defence discussed in late 2024 to ensure self-sufficiency.
June summit Trump will attend a key NATO summit in the Hague on 24-25 June – the first of its kind since the July 2023 Vilnius Summit. Rutte – who began his role in October 2024 – is poised to agree to the US’s position that NATO should raise its defence spending target from 2% to 5% of national GDP. This will likely consist of 3.5% direct military spending and 1.5% on broader security-related spending. This is despite nine of NATO’s 32 members not having reached the original target. Another outcome of the summit is likely to be a redefinition of what constitutes “defence” to artificially raise national spending figures. Although NATO does not sanction members for missing targets, the high number of countries below the threshold increases the risk of the US – by far the largest contributor – reducing its commitment to the alliance; however, the likelihood of a full US departure is low.
High spending in the east A broad trend in defence spending in Europe is a decrease when moving from east to west, correlating with how directly threatened by Russia national governments feel. The Baltic states all far exceed the NATO defence spending target of 2% of GDP, with other countries on Europe’s eastern frontier, such as Greece, also prioritising security. Moving westwards, defence spending broadly decreases, with the Iberian Peninsula countries and Italy spending lower percentages of GDP on defence – although there are exceptions, notably France and the UK.
International pressure has significantly increased in 2025 and is starting to have a greater impact on domestic politics in Western European countries. Fiscally strained governments are struggling to find a way to increase defence spending without overly cutting spending in other politically sensitive areas such as social welfare. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has faced significant domestic criticism for his plan to raise defence spending from 1.4% to 2% of GDP by the end of 2025 as he needed to implement the proposals without parliamentary approval due to a lack of support. He has also included telecommunications, cyber security and environmental measures in Spain’s classification of “defence”, receiving criticism for the move from European diplomats. In the coming years, countries across Europe will face similar difficulties – and it is likely that a supranational solution will be needed if all European nations are to meet defence spending targets.
How can Europe make up the arms deficit? It is highly unlikely that all but a handful of NATO members will be willing to spend 5% of GDP on defence. To overcome this, European leaders will likely think of solutions beyond the national or EU paradigm. One increasingly likely outcome is a supranational solution that crosses EU member states and aligned third countries. Garnering support for such a mechanism within the EU will be a difficult task, given defence is traditionally a national prerogative, and leaders of several member states, such as Hungary and Slovakia, are unwilling to antagonise Russia. Because of this, pro-Ukraine European leaders will likely look beyond the EU to increase defence funding. At present, fragmentation of the European defence market is a major barrier to both public and private investment, which also has the knock-on effect of slowing technological development.
National leaders have already experimented with extra-EU alliances – for example, the 31-country Coalition of the Willing peacekeeping initiative led by French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which met on 2 March; the European Group of Five (France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK), which met on 12 March; and a UK-EU defence pact that will likely be agreed at a summit between the two parties on 19 May. A European defence common market, that includes countries like the UK and possibly Ukraine, would overcome member states’ preference to procure arms from national champions – a major barrier in the EU’s existing procurement plan announced in March. Such a mechanism has been touted by Brussels-based think tank Bruegel and UK officials. European finance ministers are considering the idea, and proposals for a new process for European weapons procurement are likely in 2025 – though the extent of such a mechanism risks being limited due to national sovereignty concerns over defence policy. An integrated market could lead to a reconsideration of how national contributions to defence are measured due to lower procurement costs through economies of scale – national leaders would likely seek to complement percentage-of-GDP targets with specific capabilities delivered to reduce pressure on the NATO target.
Outlook Europe will likely continue to increase defence spending. However, it will also need to significantly change its procurement mechanisms if it is to meet the challenge of being able to defend itself without US support. European defence companies will continue to see high demand for their products. It is likely that the market will become more unified in the coming years as the Commission recognises that it needs to reduce fragmentation in the market and incentivise national governments to look beyond their domestic champions.
Sources:
“Proposal for a Council regulation establishing the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) through the reinforcement of European defence industry Instrument”, European Commission
“Rutte: NATO spending target will be ‘considerably more than 3 percent’”, Politico
“NATO’s Rutte floats including broader security spending to hit Trump’s 5% defence target”, Reuters
“The Secretary General’s Annual Report”, NATO
“Spain’s Pedro Sánchez calls for cyber and climate to count as defence spending," Financial Times
“The governance and funding of European rearmament”, Bruegel
“EU ministers positive on defence fund to ease debt concerns”, Reuters
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(18 May) Pro-Palestine protest
(19 May) Minor crime events
(5 Jun) Dutch gov’t collapse
Source: Seerist and Control Risks
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