France’s Security Landscape During the 2024 Paris Olympic Games
Seerist’s Country Analysis pages provide extensive analytical information on a chosen country and its security landscape.
France: Security Landscape
Despite generally limited security threats, France has seen a spate of violent protests and it remains at risk of terrorist attacks by Islamist extremists.
Civil unrest takes place frequently and motivations for protests and associated unrest range from anti-government sentiment to environmentalism and police brutality. While clashes and some incidental damage to premises can take place during large protests, the threat of riots in most of the country is limited. The likelihood of unrest is increasing in 2024 as energy and food prices rise. Increasing tensions between police and youths stem from accusations of police violence and from reported increased targeting of minority youth by police forces in aggressive stop-and-search operations. This occasionally spills over into social unrest, though is usually short-lived and confined to low-income areas of major cities. Combined with the French tradition of street protests, this creates a significant threat of riots in these specific areas – chiefly the housing projects that ring major cities, with the areas to the immediate north of Paris being the most sensitive.
CIVIL UNREST
TERRORISM
CRIME
A series of Islamist extremist terrorist attacks have occurred in the past decade and further attacks are likely. High-profile incidents include shootings at satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and at a Jewish grocery store in January 2015, and a series of attacks in November that year, all in the capital Paris, as well as a vehicle ramming attack in Nice in July 2016. Since the 2015 attacks, there has been a shift away from coordinated attacks involving improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and firearms towards low-technology methods, such as hostage-taking or the use of vehicles-as-weapons and knives. This type of attack is likely to represent the most significant trend in the coming years, but extremists retain the intent to use high-impact methods, such as IEDs. Far-right extremist activity has increased in the past few years. Far-right extremists, as well as perpetrators of hate crimes, remain unlikely to target businesses. The primary targets of such attacks are likely to remain ethnic, racial and religious minorities and related assets, as well as politicians.
CIVIL UNREST
TERRORISM
CRIME
Rates of street crime, such as pickpocketing and mugging, as well as burglaries and robberies, are higher in the capital Paris, Marseille and other major cities than in most other Western European cities outside France. However, such crime does not present a major threat to most business operations. Local law enforcement and judicial systems are generally reliable, though police response to non-life-threatening situations and the resolution of such criminal investigations in major cities (in particular in Paris) are generally slow or sometimes non-existent. Attacks have taken place against security vans carrying cash and valuables in transit (CVT), branches of retail banks, local post offices and depots.
CIVIL UNREST
TERRORISM
CRIME
PulseAI gives a more immediate indication of changing levels of stability based on how various indicators deviate from baseline levels. Indicators can be longer term (various economic measures) or short term (number of events). PulseAI reacts more quickly than risk ratings, and captures more subtle changes – a sudden upsurge in civil unrest or the start of a new military campaign.
Risk Ratings give an at-a-glance, a qualitative assessment of current levels of risk to operations in a country. They are business focused and cover various categories including political stability and attitude to investment; condition of infrastructure; and security issues such as unrest and terrorism.
In Focus: Sabotage of High-Speed-Rail Lines
KEY ISSUES
On 26 July, the opening day of the Olympic Games, suspected ”far-left extremists” successfully conducted coordinated acts of sabotage against French railway (SNCF) assets in three separate locations along the high-speed-rail (TGV) line, including tracks near Courtalain (Centre-Val de Loire), Pagny-sur-Moselle (Grand Est), and Croisilles (Haut-de-France). Attempts to vandalize a fourth location, Vergigny (Bourgogne-Franche- Comté), failed after rail employees intervened to prevent any damage. The affected locations, which French authorities described as critical “nerve centres” along the TGV line, saw significant arson damage to their lineside communications cables. Substantial disruption to domestic and international rail services leading into and from Paris followed, with a full return to normal operations only occurring by 29 July after repairs were made to the various lines. By Sunday 28 July, some 800,000 passengers had been affected by the associated disruption to rail services.
French authorities have accused “far-left extremists” of being responsible, however the exact perpetrators and their motives are yet to be officially confirmed. Recent analysis by Seerist’s strategic partner, Control Risks, highlights the sabotage acts are likely to have been conducted by a state-aligned actor aimed at disrupting the games. In recent months, French authorities have foiled numerous apparent plots by Russian state-aligned actors aimed at undermining confidence in France’s stability and the smooth rollout of the games. Russia has denied involvement in these recent acts of sabotage.
Monitor Security Developments with Events AI
Building custom keyword searches using Events AI empowers Seerist users to monitor Olympics-related security developments aligned with Seerist’s event models and curated sources.
Click to view Events AI heatmap
Heatmap results are derived from an Events AI search customised to filter Olympic-related terrorism news/events between 1 June – 30 July. The map shows Paris as the focal point for terrorism related news across the country.
Track Security Trends with Verified Events
Verified Events are authenticated by a team of subject matter experts that identify, verify, and monitor events 24/7. Gain insights into security trends around the Olympics with Seerist’s extensive verified events database.
Heatmaps of Verified Events in Paris, 23 May – 30 July
Seerist recorded nearly 280 verified events across all security categories in France between 23 May – 30 July. Unrest events accounted for about 79% of those incidents, while crime constituted 21% and terrorism less than 1%.
Several important Olympic venues are found in the city centre of Paris, including the Grand Palais, La Concorde and the Pont d'Iéna.
Click for more information on Pulse AI and Risk Ratings
Plan Ahead with Future Events
View Future Events on Seerist’s ‘Latest’ and ‘Country Analysis’ pages.
Future Events covers one-off or recurring events that could cause operational disruption, heightened security threats or result in significant political decisions. These are events that are typically planned or fixed weeks or more in advance. Seerist also covers security events – such as protests, marches, sit-ins and strikes – that are planned at much shorter notice.
Filter Future Events by Category, Potential Severity, and Impact Type
Seerist Analyses Highlight Sabotage, Crime, and Terrorism Risks during the Paris Olympics
Threats of sabotage, hostile state actor interventions to be heightened during Olympic Games
News website France Info on 26 July reported that in the early hours of the morning five separate arson attacks or attempted attacks took place against France’s railway infrastructure.
The attacks are highly likely to have been an act of coordinated sabotage, likely carried by out a hostile state-actor, such as Russia.
The threat of further acts of sabotage will be particularly heightened on 26 July, the day of the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, but will persist until the end of the games on 11 August.
Acts aimed at disrupting the games will have the potential to trigger panic, heightening threats from dangerous crowd movements.
SITUATION BRIEF
France’s civil unrest and terrorism risk ratings remain at MEDIUM amid the Olympic Games
The 2024 Summer Olympic Games began on 26 July and will continue through 11 August.
Since our previous report, Seerist’s intelligence team has verified an additional 280 events across all security categories in the period between 23 May – 30 July. Some events have had a significant and direct impact on the ongoing Olympic games, such as the coordinated sabotage of French railway assets on 26 July, which caused substantial disruptions for people travelling to the games in Paris.
Other significant events have included a string of pro-Palestine protests in Paris demanding Israel’s removal from the games and the sabotage of fibre optic cables in six regions of the country.
Although civil unrest will remain a significant security concern throughout the duration of games, widespread and targeted unrest affecting the games has so far either failed to materialise, been called off due to progress in negotiations with the government or been prevented due to pre-emptive and forceful crackdowns by police. Nonetheless, given the scale and frequency of unrest across the country, actions such as protests, strikes and sit-ins that are unrelated to the games could still cause significant disruption to Olympics’ planning, operational activities and security.
The threat of terrorism will likewise continue to pose a major concern for the remainder of the games, with sporting arenas and other Olympic sites, particularly in Paris, facing a heightened threat of attacks. On 17 July, French police arrested a man suspected of planning attacks motivated by neo-Nazi ideology during the games and the preceding Olympic torch procession. Prior to this arrest, authorities had already foiled two attacks targeting the games motivated by Islamist extremism and another motivated by the misogynist far-right incel ideology. These arrests serve to highlight the varied nature of threat actors in France with the intent to carry out violent acts.
While crime levels in Paris saw a clear decrease in the run up the games, analysis by Seerist’s strategic partner, Control Risks, forecasts that petty crime levels will increase significantly during the games, with perpetrators likely to target individuals in busy, central areas of Paris, such as tourist and shopping areas; areas around games venues across the Paris region; and the region’s public transport network.
Source: Seerist & Control Risks
Map shows MEDIUM Civil Unrest risk rating across France
Source: Control Risks Analysis published 26 July 2024
Request a demo
Request a demo to see how Seerist can support your security and intelligence efforts.
Explore Seerist Today
Request a demo
Request a demo to see how Seerist can support your security and intelligence efforts.
Explore Seerist Today
Source: Seerist and Control Risks
Heatmap displaying verified vandalism or attempted vandalism (crime & unrest) events against French railway (SNCF) assets on 26 July 2024
79%
UNREST
21%
CRIME
<1%
TERRORISM
Heatmap results are derived from an Events AI search customised to filter Olympic-related terrorism news/events between 1 June – 30 July. The map shows Paris as the focal point for terrorism related news across the country.
Heatmaps of Verified Events in Paris, 23 May – 30 July
Several important Olympic venues are found in the city centre of Paris, including the Grand Palais, La Concorde and the Pont d'Iéna.