Exploring France’s Security Landscape Ahead of the 2024 Paris Olympic Games
Seerist’s Country Analysis pages provide extensive analytical information on a chosen country and its security landscape.
France: Security Landscape
Despite generally limited security threats, France has seen a spate of violent protests and it remains at risk of terrorist attacks by Islamist extremists.
Civil unrest takes place frequently and motivations for protests and associated unrest range from anti-government sentiment to environmentalism and police brutality. While clashes and some incidental damage to premises can take place during large protests, the threat of riots in most of the country is limited. The likelihood of unrest is increasing in 2024 as energy and food prices rise. Increasing tensions between police and youths stem from accusations of police violence and from reported increased targeting of minority youth by police forces in aggressive stop-and-search operations. This occasionally spills over into social unrest, though is usually short-lived and confined to low-income areas of major cities. Combined with the French tradition of street protests, this creates a significant threat of riots in these specific areas – chiefly the housing projects that ring major cities, with the areas to the immediate north of Paris being the most sensitive.
CIVIL UNREST
TERRORISM
CRIME
A series of Islamist extremist terrorist attacks have occurred in the past decade and further attacks are likely. High-profile incidents include shootings at satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and at a Jewish grocery store in January 2015, and a series of attacks in November that year, all in the capital Paris, as well as a vehicle ramming attack in Nice in July 2016. Since the 2015 attacks, there has been a shift away from coordinated attacks involving improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and firearms towards low-technology methods, such as hostage-taking or the use of vehicles-as-weapons and knives. This type of attack is likely to represent the most significant trend in the coming years, but extremists retain the intent to use high-impact methods, such as IEDs. Far-right extremist activity has increased in the past few years. Far-right extremists, as well as perpetrators of hate crimes, remain unlikely to target businesses. The primary targets of such attacks are likely to remain ethnic, racial and religious minorities and related assets, as well as politicians.
CIVIL UNREST
TERRORISM
CRIME
Rates of street crime, such as pickpocketing and mugging, as well as burglaries and robberies, are higher in the capital Paris, Marseille and other major cities than in most other Western European cities outside France. However, such crime does not present a major threat to most business operations. Local law enforcement and judicial systems are generally reliable, though police response to non-life-threatening situations and the resolution of such criminal investigations in major cities (in particular in Paris) are generally slow or sometimes non-existent. Attacks have taken place against security vans carrying cash and valuables in transit (CVT), branches of retail banks, local post offices and depots.
CIVIL UNREST
TERRORISM
CRIME
PulseAI gives a more immediate indication of changing levels of stability based on how various indicators deviate from baseline levels. Indicators can be longer term (various economic measures) or short term (number of events). PulseAI reacts more quickly than risk ratings, and captures more subtle changes – a sudden upsurge in civil unrest or the start of a new military campaign.
Risk Ratings give an at-a-glance, a qualitative assessment of current levels of risk to operations in a country. They are business focused and cover various categories including political stability and attitude to investment; condition of infrastructure; and security issues such as unrest and terrorism.
In Focus: Paris
KEY ISSUES
Unrest
Protests in Paris are frequent. Most are scheduled in advance and peaceful, but spontaneous unrest can occur. Protests cause traffic disruption through road closures. Use of heavy-handed crowd control methods by police can expose bystanders to threats of injury.
Tourism-driven crime
Petty theft is common in Paris, especially in areas that see high foot traffic during the peak tourism season (May-October). Thieves increasingly single out wealthy looking tourists in affluent areas, and increasingly resort to violence to steal valuables such as watches or bags.
Terrorism
Paris remains a target for Islamist militant attacks. Attacks primarily involve unsophisticated low-cost methods such as use of bladed weapons and vehicles and are generally committed by radicalised individuals. They are most likely to be indiscriminate and target open areas.
City Profiles provide a high-level guide to security and other issues that may affect visitors. These guides are qualitative assessments by Control Risks’ team of 100+ analysts who have used their knowledge to identify issues and dynamics relevant to business travelers.
This map shows areas of Paris - highlighted in dark yellow - where security threats are relatively higher than elsewhere in the city. Personnel are advised to take additional precautions if visiting these areas, or to avoid them entirely.
The Arrivals section provides information on the issues that a visitor may face when arriving or travelling around a city. Four different categories are covered, all which receive individual ratings (low, medium or high).
Monitor Security Developments with Events AI
Building custom keyword searches using Events AI empowers Seerist users to monitor Olympics-related security developments aligned with Seerist’s event models and curated sources.
Click to view Events AI heatmap
Heatmap results are derived from an Events AI search customised to filter Olympic-related unrest events between 1 April - 23 May. The map shows Paris as the primary flashpoint for unrest activity across the country.
Track Security Trends with Verified Events
Verified Events are authenticated by a team of subject matter experts that identify, verify, and monitor events 24/7. Gain insights into security trends around the Olympics with Seerist’s extensive verified events database.
Heatmaps of Verified Events in Paris, 1 January – 23 May
Seerist recorded more than 700 verified events across all security categories in France between 1 January and 23 May.
94%
UNREST
5%
CRIME
1%
TERRORISM
Several of the main Olympic venues are found in the Parisian suburb of Saint-Denis, including the Stade de France, the Aquatics Centre, and the Olympic Village.
Between 1 January – 23 May, Seerist recorded 24 verified unrest events with a direct relation to the Olympics.
Use custom Keywords to filter Verified Events for Olympics-related results and create charts for data visualization and analysis.
According to Seerist data, verified unrest events associated with the Olympics have increased in frequency since March as the games approach.
Protests have occurred in around 83% of all Olympic-related unrest events between 1 January – 23 May, with associated strikes recorded in around 16% of events.
Click for deeper dive into VE heatmap
Click for more information on Pulse AI and Risk Ratings
Plan Ahead with Future Events
View Future Events on Seerist’s ‘Latest’ and ‘Country Analysis’ pages.
Future Events covers one-off or recurring events that could cause operational disruption, heightened security threats or result in significant political decisions. These are events that are typically planned or fixed weeks or more in advance. Seerist also covers security events – such as protests, marches, sit-ins and strikes – that are planned at much shorter notice.
Filter Future Events by Category, Potential Severity, and Impact Type
Seerist Analyses Highlight Terrorism Trends Ahead of Paris Olympics
Foiled Olympic torch attack reflects threat to public events from unstable threat actors
Police on 23 May arrested a 26-year-old man reportedly sympathetic to the incel (involuntarily celibate) movement for allegedly planning a “violent action” during the Olympic torch relay in Bordeaux (310 miles (499km) from the capital Paris).
The suspect was likely radicalised online, highlighting the difficulty in predicting and foiling such attacks.
Attacks by threat actors with mixed, unclear, or unstable (MUU) motivations are likely to remain prevalent in France and Western Europe in the coming years, with little indication they will decrease in frequency.
The fluctuating nature of online ideologies mean that potential targeting profiles for such attackers are very broad, meaning businesses may be targeted, if they become associated with conspiratorial narratives by perpetrators with MUU motivations.
Foiled plot highlights continued terrorism threat, focus on sporting events
Authorities on 23 April arrested a 16-year-old male in Marignier, Haute-Savoie department, on suspicion of planning an attack motivated by Islamist extremist ideology during the upcoming Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games (July-September) in the capital Paris.
The youth appears to have sought information online on how to conduct the attack and operated alone, demonstrating the continued threat from individuals radicalising online independent of a larger group structure.
The plan to target the La Défense financial district during the games suggests that a propaganda focus by Islamist extremists since a 22 March attack in Moscow (Russia) on encouraging attacks against large events is likely to be effective in driving attacks, particularly during the games.
The incident also demonstrates the effectiveness of France’s intelligence services in foiling plots. Meanwhile, Paris will have a strongly reinforced security force presence during the games.
The types of attack most likely to succeed are likely to be those that require minimal to no planning, involving bladed weapons or vehicles-as-weapons, while more sophisticated plots are very likely to be foiled.
SITUATION BRIEF
Threats of unrest and terrorism drive security concerns ahead of the 2024 Olympics
The 2024 Summer Olympic Games are set to take place in France from the 26 July to 11 August 2024, with most events taking place in the capital, Paris. This year’s games are unique in that the opening ceremony is set to take place outside of a stadium, along the River Seine, with the ceremony expected to draw the largest crowd in the history of the games. This dynamic, along with France’s active civil society and complex security environment, will pose challenges for the country’s security services.
The threat of widespread civil unrest is among the main security concerns for the upcoming games. France frequently experiences widespread bouts of protest and strike activity, and many actors, from labour unions to environmental groups, have directly signalled their intent to cause disruption, both before and during the games.
Between 1 January - 23 May, Seerist verified more than 700 unrest events across France, 24 of which were directly related to the Olympic games. Given the scale and frequency of unrest across the country, actions such as protests, strikes and sit-ins that are unrelated to the games can also significantly affect Olympics’ planning, operational activities and security.
The threat of terrorism poses another major concern for the games, with sporting arenas and other Olympic sites, particularly in Paris, facing a heightened threat of attacks. Islamist extremists have been releasing regular calls online for attacks against major events, particularly sporting events. Islamic State (IS) on 8 April called specifically for attacks by lone individuals during the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. As highlighted in analysis by Seerist’s strategic partner, Control Risks, French security forces have already foiled at least two noteworthy Olympic-related attacks motivated by extremist ideologies.
French intelligence services will remain effective at foiling attacks that require even minimal coordination or preparation. However, attacks that require very limited preparation, or emanate from lone threat actors or from those with mixed, unclear, or unstable (MUU) motivations, will remain more difficult for security services to detect and foil ahead of and during the Olympic games.
Source: Seerist & Control Risks
Map shows MEDIUM Civil Unrest risk rating across France
Source: Seerist & Control Risks
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