Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
30 November – 8 December 2022
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Tensions Culminate in Peruvian Presidential Impeachment
SITUATION REPORT
BRIEF
After a contentious 10 days, Peruvian President Pedro Castillo was removed from office and arrested after he ordered Congress’ dissolution and creation of a new constitution. Seerist tracked the rising tensions from the beginning with expert analysis of what was likely to occur and alerts along the way notifying users of unrest.
TIMELINE
Unrest triggers Hotspot in Peru as Pulse score dips.
A Hotspot is triggered near Lima as supporters and detractors of Castillo clash near where the former president is detained.
The Pulse stability score slopes downward, nearing the bottom of the country’s 60-day range.
The Pulse Forecast presents a stability score between 33-47 over the coming seven days.
8 DECEMBER 2022
Political instability to escalate amid rising executive and legislative tensions
Congressman Edward Málaga announced on 28 November that he will file an impeachment motion request against President Pedro Castillo.
Málaga’s announcement highlights rising tensions between Congress and the Castillo administration, which will likely escalate as a result of Castillo’s increasingly confrontational stance.
The Constitutional Tribunal (TC) will likely rule in defence of the constitutional order, but its decision is unlikely end the political gridlock.
The political situation will undermine the investment climate throughout the Castillo administration (2026), though Peru’s pro-business framework remains strong.
30 NOVEMBER 2022
SEERIST ANALYSIS
Political instability to remain high over next few weeks after president’s removal
Congress (legislature) on 7 December voted to remove now former president Pedro Castillo from power after his illegal attempt to dissolve it.
Castillo’s attempt to dissolve Congress was widely condemned as illegal by Peruvian institutions and led to Castillo’s dismissal and arrest.
Dina Boluarte, Castillo’s vice-president, assumed the presidency on 7 December in accordance with constitutional norms.
Political instability is likely to remain high in the next few weeks as Boluarte attempts to stabilise the government.
7 DECEMBER 2022
SEERIST ANALYSIS
As newly sworn-in President Dina Boluarte aims to restore confidence in the Peruvian government and create a political truce, Seerist’s continued analysis, alerts, and stability forecasts will track the country’s progress and keep users alerted to any ongoing unrest and operational challenges.
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