Q1 2024 Verified Events Report

LOW

MEDIUM

HIGH

POTENTIAL SEVERITY RATINGS

Future Events: Q2 2024

Israel 23-29 April Holiday Passover

LOW

Yemen 22 May Holiday Unity Day

LOW

Iraq 10 June Election Provincial Elections (Kurdistan Region)

HIGH

Syria 25 May Anniversary Anniversary of the 2012 Houla massacre

MEDIUM

Hover over locations for more information.

Global 16-19 June Holiday Eid al-Ahda

MEDIUM

Morocco 19 April-31 May Military Africa Lion 2024: Morocco, Tunisia, Ghana, and Senegal

LOW

Madagascar 1 May Election Legislative elections

LOW

Madagascar 6 May Election Presidential elections

LOW

South Sudan 16 May Holiday SPLA Day

MEDIUM

Nigeria 12 June Holiday Democracy Day

MEDIUM

North Macedonia 24 April Election Presidential elections

LOW

Ukraine 24 April Anniversary Anniversary of the deaths of pro-Russia activists

MEDIUM

Sweden 7-11 May Security Protests during the Eurovision Song Contest

LOW

Turkiye 28 May Anniversary Anniversary of the Gezi Park protests

LOW

European Union (EU) 6-9 June Election European Parliamentary elections

LOW

India 19 April-1 June Election General elections

LOW

Australia 16 May Security Anti-protest law rally in Adelaide

LOW

China 4 June Anniversary Anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown

LOW

Mongolia 28 June Election General elections

LOW

Colombia 28 April Anniversary Anniversary of the 2021 anti-government protests

MEDIUM

Dominican Republic 19 May Election General elections

LOW

Mexico 2 June Election General elections

LOW

Canada 3-9 June Holiday Canadian Environment Week

LOW

United States 19 June Holiday Juneteenth

LOW

South China Sea 22 April-10 March Military Balikatan military exercise

MEDIUM

POTENTIAL THREATS

Conflict

Crime

Unrest

Transportation

Terrorism

Political

Q1 executive summary

Security Incident Report

Q1 2024

In this quarterly report, we extract key trends from Seerist data to analyse Q1 global patterns and provide forecasts on what's to come in the months ahead.

Unrest by labour and trade unions rose more than threefold across Europe in Q1 compared with Q4. This was mainly due to protests against unpopular agriculture and environmental policies led by farmers' groups across Western Europe and in countries like Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Moldova. Seerist also recorded an increase in unrest by animal rights activists in Germany and Italy. The region experienced a 20% drop in unrest by environmental groups, though many groups were active in a limited capacity, staging protests and road blockades over climate change issues.

Executive Summary

In the Americas Seerist recorded a more than twofold increase in War events in Q1, mainly in Colombia. This was due to the suspension of the government’s temporary ceasefires with the National Liberation Army (ELN) in February, and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents in March, triggering renewed hostilities.

In Colombia verified War and Terrorism events increased following the suspension of ceasefire agreements in Q1.

War events increased in Q1 in both Ukraine and Russia, with a notable 49% rise in the latter. Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory intensified, particularly in Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions, including ground invasions in the Belgorod region. Additionally, a series of Ukrainian drone attacks targeted Russian oil refineries in March. Ukraine remains very unlikely to begin to intentionally attack civilian targets in Russia because such a move would be detrimental for Ukraine’s relations with Western countries.

Cross-border attacks between Russia and Ukraine in Q1 2024. Showing war risk overlay.

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In Mozambique, terrorism events almost tripled in Q1 due to a significant uptick in activity by the Islamist militant group al-Sunnah, which staged sustained campaigns of attacks across the central and southern districts of Cabo Delgado province. Looking ahead into Q2, terrorism threats are likely to persist at similar levels to Q1: al-Sunnah is likely to try to exploit the continued drawdown of international joint forces (SAMIM) ahead of complete withdrawal in July 2024

VE Terrorism in Cabo Delgado Province

Simmering Conflicts

Throughout Q1, the Seerist intelligence team continued to closely monitor and verify War, Terrorism and Unrest events associated with the Israel-Hamas conflict and its implications across the MENA region. As Q2 unfolds, the shadow war between Iran and Israel has been brought into the open following Iran’s direct cross-border missile and drone attack on Israel on 13-14 April, and an alleged Israeli response within Iranian territory on 19 April. According to analysis by our strategic partner, Control Risks, tensions between Israel and Iran will persist, and may sporadically come into the open again over the coming months, but overall, they will likely revert to a pattern of predominantly covert operations. In the meantime, varying levels of exposure are emerging across the Middle East. Countries where Iran wields significant influence will face the greatest threats from conflict in the coming weeks; Israel is likely to continue to strike Iranian and Iran-backed assets in Syria and Lebanon, and possibly seek to target Iraq and Yemen. On the other hand, Western allies in the region will seek to avoid picking a side. For now, direct security threats to these countries are limited, but they could grow in the context of a further escalation between Israel and Iran.

Congo (DRC) & Rwanda Seerist recorded a 10% rise in attacks involving the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group in the mineral-rich eastern part of Congo (DRC) from Q4 to Q1. Conflict resurfaced in the region in late 2021 after M23 reemerged and began competing with Congolese leaders over influence in politics and the mineral resource trade. M23 rebels have captured several areas in eastern Congo (DRC), and in January and February 2024 the rebels advanced within 12 miles (20km) of the strategic Congolese city of Goma. Should they manage to capture the city, pressure will mount on President Felix Tshisekedi to declare war on Rwanda; our MEDIUM war risk rating reflects the threat of conflict breaking out between Congo (DRC) and Rwanda in the coming months. That said, several factors are mitigating the threat of conflict, including substantial western pressure to prevent a large-scale conflict. A full-scale war between Rwanda and Congo (DRC) would likely disrupt Congolese exports of tin (cassiterite), tungsten (wolframite) and tantalum (coltan), driving up global prices and impacting global technology supply chains. However, copper and cobalt exports from the Katanga region in Congo (DRC) would be very unlikely to be directly affected.

Heatmap showing verified events involving the M23 in eastern Congo (DRC) from 1 January to 31 May 2024.

Q2 Notable Elections

May 6 Chad presidential elections In Chad, presidential elections are scheduled for 6 May. President Mahamat Idriss Déby is the clear frontrunner, with no genuine challengers after his main rival and cousin, Yaya Dillo, was shot dead in February during an army assault on the headquarters of Dillo’s Socialist Without Borders (PSF) party in the capital N’Djamena. Related clashes between PSF activists and security forces loyal to Déby, as well as renewed fighting in northern regions between the army and the Libyan-based FACT rebel group, prompted a spike in verified war events in Q1 over Q4. As the election approaches, persistent divisions in Déby’s ethnic and ruling Zaghawa clan (of whom Dillo was a member), will sustain threats of a possible coup attempt, meanwhile, continued plotting by FACT rebels to remove Déby from power could prompt further rebel offensives deeper into Chadian territory. Seerist’s political stability risk rating will therefore remain HIGH in the coming weeks.

In Q1, a farmer protest movement across Europe drove an increase in unrest events in the region, with more than 900 demonstrations recorded in the agriculture sector. Farmers and agricultural groups have been protesting against inflation, higher taxes on fuel, environmental regulations, excessive bureaucracy and perceived unfair competition from outside the European Union (EU). The demonstrations have taken place along major highways, border crossings within the EU, near government buildings like the EU headquarters in Brussels (Belgium), airports and at ports, causing operational and supply chain disruption. Around 75% of events recorded were concentrated in Poland, Germany, Spain, France and Italy. Although these events have remained largely peaceful, sporadic clashes between protesters and police have been reported in France, Czechia, Belgium, Poland and Spain.

In-Depth Analysis

May 6 Chad Presidential Elections

May 29 South Africa Presidential Elections

June 2 Mexico General Elections

June 6–9 European Union Parliamentary Elections

June 2024

April 2024

May 29 South Africa presidential elections General elections will be held in South Africa on 29 May. Our strategic partner Control Risks continues to assess that the governing African National Congress (ANC) will remain the largest party after the elections, with either a narrow majority or a result just below 50% of the vote, with President Cyril Ramaphosa likely to form a coalition with smaller political parties in order to secure a second terms and remain in power nationally. As election campaigning continues, localized unrest and clashes between party supporters are likely, particularly in tightly contested provinces such as KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), Gauteng and Free State. Service delivery protests are also likely to continue, targeting party headquarters, municipal buildings, blocking roads, and disrupting voter stations. Meanwhile, businesses could experience operational disruption from campaign rallies, as well as a slowdown in engagements with government departments as electioneering intensifies over the next six weeks. However, the strong judicial system, coupled with a heavy police presence at campaign rallies and events, is likely to deter nationwide protests and political violence.

June 2 Mexico general elections General elections will be held in Mexico on 2 June, and meanwhile, the official campaign period that began on 1 March is underway. IIn the run-up to elections and amid the campaign period, Seerist recorded Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) is the presidential front runner, followed by Xóchitl Gálvez of the opposition Fuerza y Corazón por México (FCM) coalition. Sheinbaum is very likely to maintain her significant lead throughout the campaign and secure a victory in the general elections on 2 June. However, the ruling party is unlikely to win a legislative supermajority (334 seats out of 500), considering the loss of 105 seats in the lower house in the 2021 mid-term elections. Being the largest elections in the country’s history, political violence and security risks will remain high.

June 6–9 European Union Parliamentary elections EU parliamentary elections will take place from 6 to 9 June. The EU parliament is expected to see gains by right-wing parties at the expense of centrist and left-wing parties. Single-issue activist groups are likely to increase protest activities to further their causes during the campaign period. Farmers demonstrated their willingness to target EU buildings during violent protests in Q1, which will continue if they feel their demands are not being met. According to analysis by our strategic partner Control Risks, far-right activists are likely to increase their activism in Q2 to keep immigration on the political agenda during EU elections. This will cause a parallel rise in anti-right-wing unrest. In Q1, Seerist captured 208 verified unrest events linked to right-wing issues, the vast majority of which were protests in Germany condemning the Alternative for Germany party’s leaked ‘remigration’ proposal. Other political parties contesting these elections, including France’s National Rally and the Freedom Party of Austria, are likely to be targets of protest during the campaign period.

Click locations for more information.

Farmers' Protests in Europe

Heatmap of verified farmers' protests across India from 1 January to 31 March 2024.

Unrest to Persist Across MENA Over Israel-Hamas Conflict

FARMERS' PROTESTS

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Africa MENA APAC Europe Americas

Unrest

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Unrest

War

Terrorism

In Q1 2024, Seerist's intelligence team verified more than 26,000 events of war, terrorism, unrest and organised crime worldwide, a 16% increase over Q4 2023. Click the event type for more details.

Unrest

War

Terrorism

Unrest

War

Terrorism

April 19–June 1 India General Elections

April 19–June 1 India general elections India is undergoing what has been labeled the world's largest elections of 2024, with general elections taking place in seven phases from 19 April to 1 June. It is highly likely that incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will secure his third consecutive term in office with a majority against the multiparty alliance Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). Although we do not expect widespread civil unrest during the election period, instances of insecurity and political violence may occur in West Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir, Chhattisgarh and Kerala, which could pose an incidental threat to business personnel. Other political protests by opposition parties discrediting the current government are also likely to continue. During these protests, disruptions or blockades at major roadways or near important government offices and buildings can be anticipated. Violent clashes between supporters of rival political parties cannot be ruled out. Further, as observed in Q1 there exists a risk of militant attacks in Jammu and Kashmir, Assam and Manipur along with Maoist attacks in Chhattisgarh, which are likely to increase in Q2 ahead of elections. Additionally, unrest related to grievances by farmers' groups is likely to persist in Punjab and Haryana in Q2, with the recent arrest of Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal likely to trigger more protests in and around New Delhi.

Labour/Trade Unions

1187

272

Environmentalists

Animal Rights Activists

189

152

Q4 2023

Q1 2024

Congo (DRC) + Rwanda

South China Sea

Farmers' Protests in India

Political Uncertainty in Germany

Gang Violence in Haiti

Under pressure from member states and protesters, the European Commission will likely prepare a far-reaching relaxation of the medium- and long-term environmental protection measures contained in its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in the coming months. As EU negotiations continue around policy and potential concessions to farmers groups in Q2, protests will persist to further pressure legislators ahead of the European Parliament elections in June. Protests are especially likely ahead of key EU meetings in Brussels and will likely lead to operational disruption from traffic blockades, especially in Brussels. Further clashes between demonstrators and law enforcement are possible.

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In India, agriculture-related unrest events increased by about 370% in Q1, primarily due to a stalemate in negotiation between the federal government and farmer unions over their 12-point demands. A particular sticking point is that the government has ruled against the farmers’ most pressing demand of having a guaranteed minimum support price for all crops. The farmers protests peaked in February, with nearly 180 farmers protests recorded across India by Seerist. Thousands of farmers from 250 unions on 13 February marched towards New Delhi to pressure the government into accepting their demands. Clashes broke out between the farmers and security forces, leaving more than 40 people injured. This was the largest protest by farmers since the year-long movement against the farm laws in 2020.

In Q1, Seerist verified nearly 50 protests led by farmers at the epicentre of the unrest (Shambhu and Khanauri borders of Punjab and Haryana), with protests continuing in early April. A quick resolution that satisfies farmers remains extremely unlikely, and their protests are likely to continue into Q2. Prolonged farmers protests and potential national highway blockades, as well as the government’s precautionary measures such as internet suspensions or movement restrictions, will pose significant operational and supply chain disruption to businesses. With general elections also underway, further blockades or large-scale protests by farmers could disrupt electoral activities in affected states in the coming weeks.

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Farmers' Protests in Europe

Farmers' Protests in India

Political Uncertainty in Germany

Gang Violence in Haiti

In Germany, protests against the right-wing alternative for Germany (AfD) party increased significantly in Q1. Large rallies were staged, particularly in North Rhine-Westphalia, Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg and Hesse. Around 200,000 people rallied against AfD in Munich (Bavaria) on 21 January. A Seerist update assessed that growing support for populist parties in Germany will likely undermine political stability and drive civil unrest. This tendency will likely heighten political unpredictability in the coming years as mainstream parties attempt to adapt their policies to win back these voters, further undermining the strength of centrist parties. Growing public frustration with the government, farmers’ concerns over austerity measures, and the cost-of-living crisis are likely to fuel civil unrest over the coming year. Within this context, large cities and those in the east of the country are increasingly likely to see large-scale protests, where participants use road blockades between cities as a tactic, causing significant disruption to business operations.

Farmers' Protests in Europe

Farmers' Protests in India

Political Uncertainty in Germany

Gang Violence in Haiti

Haiti’s security environment deteriorated significantly over Q1, with nearly 160 unrest and crime events recorded. Several high-severity events were recorded. On 4 March, gang members engaged in vandalism and looting, seizing public buildings such as the civil prison, police stations and banks in Croix-des-Bouquets, Ouest department. Anti-government unrest began increasing steadily in January ahead of a 7 February deadline for a government transition. Interim Prime Minister Ariel Henry bypassed the deadline, prolonging unrest and political instability. Unrest subsided in March in response to a rise in gang violence, when the Viv Ansanm gang alliance (formed by the two major criminal coalitions, G9 and G-Pep) put aside rivalries in an attempt to establish themselves as a de facto political force.

Gangs sought control of critical infrastructure and government buildings, launching at least two attacks against Port-au-Prince port and international airport, and targeting a gas terminal, the Palace of Justice and the National Palace. Henry announced his resignation on 11 March, as well as the creation of a transitional council after violence and international pressure intensified. The government transition process will be protracted and defined by political infighting and violence, meaning elections are highly unlikely by August 2025. The territorial and political influence of gangs will grow amid political instability, exacerbating already-severe operational risks for businesses and NGOs, prompting Seerist to raise political stability risk for Haiti from high to EXTREME.

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Farmers' Protests in Europe

Farmers' Protests in India

Political Uncertainty in Germany

Gang Violence in Haiti

At the start of Q2, protests and rallies continued across the Middle East in relation to the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, following Iran's unprecedented missile and drone attack on Israel on 13-14 April, protest activity has slowed. About a dozen rallies took place across Iran and in some cities in Iraq in support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attack and to denounce countries that assisted Israel with air defence, but protests in support of the Palestinian cause notably decreased. In the coming weeks, developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict - and to a lesser extent the ongoing conflict with Iran - will continue to drive protests and extremist activity globally.

In Israel, protests related to the conflict increased by 190%.

Seerist recorded a 180% increase in protests across MENA.

Unrest in Syria increased by 140%.

Protests in Gulf countries slowed in Q1, except for in Bahrain, where unrest increased by 75%.

In Q1 2024, Seerist recorded nearly 1,600 Unrest events in the MENA region, nearly 830 of which were related to the Israel-Hamas conflict, a slight decrease from about 975 protests related to the conflict recorded in Q4. Hover for more details.

In Israel, protests related to the conflict increased by 190%, from 35 events recorded in Q4 to 102 in Q1, reflecting growing impatience among Israeli citizens, who are demanding that the government prioritise the release of hostages still held in the Gaza Strip (Palestinian Territories) and increasingly calling for early elections.

Seerist recorded a 180% increase in protests across MENA in Q1 over Q4 in support of the Palestinian cause and against the joint aerial operations by the US and UK forces to counter Houthi rebel movement attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Unrest in Syria increased by 140%, in this case caused by growing anti-government protests in al-Suwayda governorate, and protests against the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib and Aleppo governorates.

Protests in Gulf countries slowed in Q1, except for in Bahrain, where unrest increased by 75%. About 30% of the events observed in Q1 in Bahrain were related to domestic grievances, such as the anniversary of the 2011 protests and the death of a prisoner of conscience.

Unrest Events in Selected Gulf Countries Q4 23 vs Q1 24

Bahrain Q4 Bahrain Q1 Kuwait Q4 Kuwait Q1 Oman Q4 Oman Q1 Qatar Q4 Qatar Q1 UAE Q4 UAE Q1

Related to Israel-Hamas conflict

Other

Unrest Events in Selected MENA Countries Q4 23 vs Q1 24

Jordan Q4 Jordan Q1 Syria Q4 Syria Q1 Israel Q4 Israel Q1 Yemen Q4 Yemen Q1 Tunisia Q4 Tunisia Q1 Morocco Q1 Morocco Q4

Related to Israel-Hamas conflict

Other

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Verified Events by Sector

Government

Agriculture

International Institutions

Road

Law Enforcement/Legal

Military

Retail

Oil and Gas

Education

Manufacturing

904 (19.85%) Agriculture

Protests Against AfD Party in Germany

1-Oct

1-Nov

1-Dec

1-Jan

1-Feb

1-Mar

Month

Date

Crime and Unrest Events in Haiti Oct 2023 – Mar 2024

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

2.5

1.5

0.5

Crime

Unrest

Average Severity

May 2024

Amid these geopolitical shocks, Seerist has also maintained focus on other simmering conflicts around the world that rarely appear in most headlines. Using our verified events database and strategic analysis by Control Risks, we explore the likelihood of full-scale conflicts occurring between Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, and in the South China Sea in the coming months and how any outbreak of hostilities could impact global supply chains. Click buttons for details on the simmering conflicts below.

South China Sea In the South China Sea (SCS), competing territorial claims over small islands involving China, Taiwan (China), Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam continue to drive tensions in the Asia Pacific region, with three reported incidents between Chinese and Filipino vessels in Q1. However, the likelihood of war is VERY LOW in the coming months due to the substantial economic cost of engaging in an open conflict. Naval battles or blockades would be likely to disrupt shipping and trade flows in the wider SCS, worth an estimated USD 5 trillion annually. China’s oil and gas imports from the Middle East and its global exports would also be affected if a blockade was enforced in the Malacca Strait during a conflict. In response to China’s continued assertiveness, the Philippines has strengthened relations with the US and regional powers like Australia and Japan. However, military alliances and existing diplomatic channels have not deterred further provocations. In Q2, the SCS will remain a simmering conflict with the potential to disrupt global supply chains. Intentional or unintentional collisions and unilateral decisions by countries to explore energy resources in disputed waters are triggers to watch that would signal an escalation in the conflict.

Very low maritime risk rating of the South China Sea

Q2 FUTURE EVENTS

Q2 SIMMERING CONFLICTS

Q2 NOTABLE ELECTIONS

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS >

GERMANY'S POLITICAL UNREST

GANG VIOLENCE IN HAITI

MENA Unrest

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Farmers' Protests in Europe

Farmers' Protests in India

Political Uncertainty in Germany

Gang Violence in Haiti

Farmers' Protests in Europe

Farmers' Protests in India

Political Uncertainty in Germany

Gang Violence in Haiti

Farmers' Protests in Europe

Farmers' Protests in India

Political Uncertainty in Germany

Gang Violence in Haiti