Q1 2025 Report

Executive Summary

JUMP TO SECTION

Unrest

War

Terrorism

DRC: M23 Rebel Offensive in Northeast

What to Watch in Q2

Notable Q1 Events

Security Incident Report

Q1 2025

In this quarterly report, we extract key trends from Seerist data to analyse Q1 global patterns and provide forecasts on what's to come in the months ahead.

Seerist’s Intelligence Team verified more than 28,000 war, terrorism, unrest and organised crime events globally in Q1 2025.

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Africa

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In the MENA region, the number of verified unrest events dropped by 13% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025. Unrest related to the Israel-Palestine conflict decreased following the initial ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas on 15 January 2025. However, there were periodic surges following events such as US President Donald Trump’s proposal in early February to relocate Gaza residents and Israel’s renewed military action in Gaza following a breakdown of ceasefire talks in mid-March.

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Unrest Events by Main Region, Q3 2024 – Q1 2025

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In Africa, unrest events declined by 15% quarter-on-quarter. Regional protest hotspots such as Nigeria and South Africa recorded a modest decrease, but the decline was largely driven by a 59% drop in unrest events in Mozambique, where protests against the high cost of living and irregularities in the 2024 general elections began to lose steam.

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Asia saw a 21% quarterly fall in unrest events, mainly due to the subsiding of famers' protests over a delay in paddy procurement in India, particularly in the state of Punjab. However, unrest events in Indonesia rose by 48%, primarily driven by the launch of the student protest campaign "Dark Indonesia" in February, which opposed various policies of President Prabowo Subianto, as well as protests against revisions to the Indonesian Military (TNI) law, ratified on 20 March 2025.

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Canada also saw bouts of protests against the imposition of US tariffs and against Tesla. Central America recorded a rise in unrest, with protests in Panama due to changes to the social security law, and roadblocks in Guatemala to oppose a vehicle insurance law. In contrast, unrest fell in Peru following protests in Q4 2024 by small-scale miners and due to concern over rising insecurity.

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Unrest in Europe increased by 13% in Q1 2025, with the highest number of events being recorded in Germany, Türkiye and Italy. In Germany, the highest number of unrest events was recorded around the snap 23 February federal elections. In Türkiye, unrest spiked at the end of March following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on corruption charges, with protests also driven by developments in Syria and Gaza.

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War

executive summary

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In Europe, Seerist recorded a 15% quarterly rise in war events in Ukraine, following a 16% increase the previous quarter. War events in Russia increased by 27% in Q1. Ukrainian forces carried out cross-border artillery and drone attacks, mainly in Russia’s Belgorod, Voronezh, Saratov, Kaluga, Krasnodar Krai and Bryansk regions. A Russian mass missile and drone strike on 7 March involved 67 cruise and ballistic missiles and 194 drones.

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In the Americas, War events increased in Colombia by 24% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 after the government suspended peace talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN) in January, leading to a rise in military operations and confrontations between security forces, the ELN and rival Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident factions. Most incidents occurred in Norte de Santander, Cauca and Valle del Cauca departments and involved ground operations by the Colombian army.

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The APAC region experienced a 10% quarterly decrease in war events in Q1, with most of these occurring in Myanmar. War events in Myanmar declined by only 5%, despite China's efforts to mediate ceasefire agreements between the ethnic armed groups and the military. The military regime continues to use airstrikes as a primary tactic (airstrikes accounted for 34% of the recorded attacks) to defend its positions and to reclaim territories captured by armed resistance groups and ethnic armed groups.

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War events in Africa increased by 10% in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. South Sudan recorded a threefold increase in war events, driven by government forces detaining Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) officials and Vice-President Riek Machar. The South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) conducted airstrikes targeting the SPLM-IO and its allied White Army forces, and further fighting is likely as the SSPDF attempts to retake Nasir, Upper Nile state.

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In the MENA region, war events decreased by 61.7% in Q1 2025 against Q4 2024. War events in the Palestinian territories have remained steady, increasing by 1.2%, with an upward trend in the West Bank and a downward trend in the Gaza Strip. The largest falls were in Lebanon and Israel (88% and 95%, respectively).

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War Events by Main Region, Q3 2024 – Q1 2025

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executive summary

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The overall number of terrorist attacks in Europe remained very low, consistent with previous quarters. However, Germany witnessed two significant vehicle-ramming incidents in Q1 2025, following on from the Christmas market vehicle-ramming in Magdeburg on 20 December 2024. The first targeted a union demonstration in Munich on 13 February, injuring 39 people, with authorities attributing it to Islamist extremism. The second vehicle-ramming attack, on 3 March, targeted the busy pedestrian area of Paradeplatz in Mannheim, killing two people and injuring 14 others, but police found no clear political or religious motive.

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In the Americas, the number of terrorism events remained low compared to other regions globally, with 90% of these being concentrated in Colombia. While the overall number of terrorism events in that country did not significantly vary compared to Q4 2024, the severity of guerrilla attacks intensified.

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In the APAC region, terrorism events declined across all countries, with a 30% reduction in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. Pakistan experienced a 23% overall drop in terrorism events, but saw a major attack by the Baloch separatist Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) on 11 March, which bombed and hijacked a Jaffer Express passenger train with more than 400 passengers on board near Mushkaf (157km from Quetta, Balochistan).

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Terrorism events in Africa saw a quarterly rise of 20%, mainly driven by increases in Congo (DRC) and Mozambique, where a recent reduction in military operations to counter terrorist activity by al-Sunnah militants has allowed the group to continue expanding operations. Terrorism events remained steady in most other countries throughout the quarter, though a slight uptick was recorded in nearly all Sahelian countries, where militant groups such as Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) continue to ramp up their cross-border activity and strike further south in countries like Benin and Niger.

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In the MENA region, terrorism events decreased by 79% quarter-on-quarter, due to broadly effective ceasefires between Israel and Hamas in the Palestinian Territories and Hizbullah in Lebanon, respectively.

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Terrorism Events by Main Region, Q3 2024 – Q1 2025

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Unrest

executive summary

Germany 25 January

In Untermenzing, Munich, Bavaria, 23 police vehicles outside a police station were reportedly set on fire, causing damages worth EUR 2 million (USD 2,092,378) in a suspected arson attack. 48.18448, 11.44832 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Germany 13 February

At the intersection of Dachauer Straße and Seidlstraße, Munich, Bavaria, a car rammed into a crowd of Ver.di protesters, killing at least two people and injuring 37 others; police officers shot and detained the perpetrator, an asylum seeker, originally from Afghanistan. 48.14746, 11.55900 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Netherlands 25 January

In Assen, Drenthe province, unidentified attackers broke into a museum with explosives in the early morning and left with several Romanian archaeological gold pieces. 52.99335, 6.56397 Location precision: Asset / building / business

Austria 15 February

In Villach, Carinthia, a Syrian asylum seeker stabbed several people, killing one male youth and injuring five other people; police arrested the attacker and officials said he had Islamist extremist motives. 46.61434, 13.84691 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Italy 28 March

Near San Vincenzo, Tuscany, about 10 masked gunmen used trucks to block the Aurelia road to two armoured vans delivering cash for post offices, opening the doors with explosives and causing fires; they stole around EUR 4 million (USD 4.3 million). 43.10506, 10.54110 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Russia 20 March

At the Engels-2 airfield, Saratov region, Ukrainian drones targeted missile-storage depots, causing explosions and a large fire, according to Ukrainian sources; an official said that residents living near the airbase were evacuated. 51.48265, 46.20998 Location precision: Asset / building / business

Serbia 15 March

In Belgrade, between 275,000 and 325,000 students and other demonstrators gathered to hold anti-government rallies over a railway station collapse in Novi Sad in November 2024, but the government claimed that 107,000 people attended the rallies; firework detonations were reported. 44.81001, 20.46497 Location precision: City

North Macedonia 17 March

In Kočani, thousands of people gathered in the central square to hold a silent protest and vigil for the victims of a nightclub fire disaster and to demand an end to corruption which they blamed for the disaster; protesters smashed the windows of the house of Kočani's mayor and of a bar belonging to the owner of the nightclub. 41.91544, 22.40894Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Greece 28 February

In Athens, hundreds of thousands of people marched to demand justice for the victims of a train collision on 23 February 2023 in Tempi (Larissa region) that killed 57 people; Molotov cocktails were thrown outside the parliament building, the police used tear gas to disperse the demonstrators, and at least 29 people were injured. 37.97552, 23.73490 Location precision: City

Russia 12 March

In Kursk region, Russian troops seized Sudzha city along with four settlements on its outskirts, according to state officials. 51.19138, 35.27055Location precision: City

Israel 20 February

On Begin Street, Bat Yam, Tel Aviv, an empty bus exploded in the parking lot near the stadium due to an IED attack; no casualties were reported and the incident is being investigated as a suspected coordinated terror attack. 32.00199, 34.74714Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Syria 6 March

Near Jableh, Latakia governorate, a gunfight broke out after former Syrian regime soldiers carried out attacks targeting the Khmeimim air base, several security checkpoints and patrols; 16 police officers, 28 former Syrian regime soldiers, and four civilians were reportedly killed. 35.39991, 35.94642 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Lebanon 28 March

In Hadath, south of Beirut, Mount Lebanon governorate, Israeli security forces claimed to have targeted a Hizbullah weapon's storage facility with drone strikes; at least one person was injured. 33.84711, 35.52131 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Yemen 15 March

In Sanaa, US airstrikes against Houthi targets left at least 15 people dead and nine others wounded, according to Houthi media. 15.35444, 44.20555 Location precision: City

Algeria 14 March

In Bordj Badji Mokhtar city, Malian security forces reportedly targeted two Algerian military trucks with a drone strike; 13 civilians were killed and several others were injured. 21.32563, 0.95279 Location precision: City

Tunisia 18 March

At Maersk's Tunisian headquarters, La Goulette, pro-Palestine activists painted the walls with red paint and clashed with company workers during a protest condemning Maersk allegedly shipping weapons to Israel. 36.83151, 10.30845 Location precision: Asset / building / business

Libya 12 February

Near Palm City, Tripoli, unidentified gunmen opened fire at a vehicle carrying Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs Adel Jumaa in a suspected targeted attack; the vehicle was reportedly hit by 14 bullets and the minister injured. 32.84177, 13.04876 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Egypt 31 January

At the Rafah border crossing, along the Gaza-Egypt border, North Sinai province, thousands of Egyptians gathered in a state-sanctioned protest to denounce a proposal by US President Donald Trump for Egypt and Jordan to accept Palestinians from Gaza. 31.24708, 34.25466 Location precision: Asset / building / business

Benin 8 January

In the Point Triple zone, Alibori, Benin, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) militants ambushed an army platoon at around 16:00 local time, killing at least 28 soldiers; attackers were repelled after several hours of fighting. 11.89814, 2.41150 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Rwanda 27 January

In Rubavu, Western Province, at least five civilians were killed and 25 others injured in a cross-border firefight and shelling between the Rwanda Defence Forces and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. -1.68940, 29.29584 Location precision: City

South Sudan 7 March

Near Nasir town, Upper Nile, a United Nations (UN) helicopter attempting to evacuate SSPDF soldiers was shot at by ‘White Army’ Nuer militiamen, killing one UN worker, an SSPDF general, and 27 soldiers. 8.61764, 33.06472 Location precision: City

Sudan 26 March

In Khartoum City, Khartoum, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recaptured Khartoum International Airport from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), securing it completely, according to Sudanese military sources. 15.59257, 32.54974 Location precision: Asset / building / business

Mozambique 5 March

In Hulene, Maputo, hundreds of supporters of opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane followed his motorcade during a procession; police opened fire, injuring 16 people, and forcing the procession to end. -25.90051, 32.59943 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Ethiopia 11 March

In Mekelle, Tigray, forces loyal to the head of the TPLF, Debretsion Gebremichael, launched attacks against forces loyal to Tigrayan interim regional leader, Getachew Reda, prompting clashes that caused multiple casualties. 13.49600, 39.47237 Location precision: City

NOTABLE Q1 VERIFIED EVENTS

Click on an event below for more details.

Germany 3 March

Near the water tower in Paradeplatz, downtown Mannheim, Baden-Württemberg, an individual rammed a vehicle into a crowd, killing two people and injuring 25 others; one suspect with a history of mental illness was arrested. 49.48343, 8.47511 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Syria 16 January

In the Tishrin dam area, Aleppo governorate, Turkish-backed forces targeted the area with airstrikes; five civilians were killed and 40 others were injured. 36.3809, 38.17894 Location precision: Asset / building / business

Israel 19 March

On Azza street in Jerusalem, hundreds of anti-government protesters gathered near the residence of PM Netanyahu and lit a bonfire in the street to condemn the resumption of the war in Gaza, clashing with police; police sprayed water cannons to disperse the protesters and one protestor was beaten and injured. 31.77203, 35.21356Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Burkina Faso 28 March

In Diapaga, Tapoa, Est region, suspected JNIM Islamist insurgents attacked a military camp, killing around 60 soldiers and defense volunteers and stealing weapons and ammunition; the rest of the equipment was set on fire.12.07061, 1.78887 Location precision: City

DRC 14 February

In South Kivu province, M23 rebels captured the city of Bukavu, the provincial capital, entering the city without any confrontations from Army soldiers. -2.50342, 28.85279 Location precision: City

DRC 27 January

In Goma, North Kivu, media reports said that M23 rebels shut down the airport and occupied the state-run radio and television station, RTNC; the border between Rwanda and DRC was also closed, and looting and sporadic gunfire occurred. -1.65776, 29.23705 Location precision: Asset / building / business

DRC 19 March

In North Kivu province, M23 rebels seized Walikale town, after some fighting with Army soldiers and Wazalendo militiamen. -1.42967, 28.07422 Location precision: City

Guatemala 18 March

In Guatemala City, locals, and taxi and bus drivers blocked roads in at least 11 places to protest against the government’s decision to introduce mandatory nationwide vehicle insurance; major traffic disruptions were reported throughout the city.14.63286, -90.50423 Location precision: City

Panama 12 February

In Panama City, members of several workers' unions blockaded Avenue Balboa and Cinta Costera while protesting over proposed reforms to the Social Security Fund; clashes involving stone-throwing and tear gas erupted with police, leaving at least 16 policemen injured and over 450 arrested.8.96987, -79.53069 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

United States 14 March

In Washington D.C., veterans and local activists rallied at the National Mall against President Donald Trump, Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) over cuts to the federal workforce.38.88752, -77.03641 Location precision: Asset / building / business

United States 2 February

In downtown Los Angeles, California, thousands of people gathered to protest against President Donald Trump's policies for mass deportations; the march temporarily blocked Hwy 101 both ways.34.04889, -118.25222 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

United States 1 January

On Bourbon Street, New Orleans, Louisiana, a truck driver rammed his vehicle into a crowd of people and exchanged gunfire with the police, killing at least 14 people and injuring dozens; two IEDs were also planted in the French Quarter, concealed in coolers.29.95459, -90.06927 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Colombia 17 January

In the Catatumbo region (northeast Norte de Santander department and southeast Chocó), at least 30 people were killed, including 5 demobilized FARC members, and ten others were injured in clashes between the ELN and FARC militants that erupted on 16 January. Location precision: State / province

Colombia 17 January

In Aserrío, Teorama, Norte de Santander, National Liberation Army (ELN) militants abducted at least 20 people, following the government's announcement of the suspension of peace talks with the armed group and clashes with FARC dissidents. 8.43752, -73.28694Location precision: City

Argentina 5 March

In Buenos Aires city, retirees and pensioners rallied outside Congress against President Javier Milei's budget cuts to government spending and to demand better wages and pensions; clashes with the police were reported and 40 people were injured. -32.95938, -60.69355Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Pakistan 4 March

In Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Jaish Al-Fursan (TTP) militants detonated two suicide car bombs in an attempt to breach a military cantonment area, killing at least 13 civilians and wounding 32 others; six militants and 16 security personnel were also killed in the ensuing firefight.32.99869, 70.60345Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Myanmar 8 March

In resistance-controlled Kyauk Ni Maw village, Ramree Township, Rakhine State, regime airstrikes reportedly killed at least 41 people and wounded 50 others, while more than 500 houses were destroyed.18.90411, 93.95807 Location precision: City

Afghanistan 13 February

Outside the Ministry of Urban Development in the 9th district of Kabul, one person was killed and five others were injured in a suicide bombing attack carried out by Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) militants; security guards identified the attacker and shot him dead.34.53680, 69.19816 Location precision: Asset / building / business

Nepal 28 March

In Kathmandu, clashes, arson and vandalism were reported at Tinkune and New Baneshwor areas as pro-monarchy demonstrators marched; several people were injured and police fired tear gas and used water cannons to disperse protesters. 27.68602, 85.34740 Location precision: Asset / building / business

South Korea 27 March

In Jongno District, Seoul, about 30000 people under the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) marched to the Gyeongbokgung Palace, demanding the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol after the Constitutional Court delayed the final verdict of Yoon's impeachment trial.126.97704, 37.57955 Location precision: Asset / building / business

Indonesia 20 March

Outside the DPR/MPR RI building in Central Jakarta, Jakarta, thousands of people held a protest against the amendments to the country's military law (RUU TNI); a clash broke out with security forces when the protesters attempted to storm the building.106.8004, -6.209337Location precision: Asset / building / business

Philippines 22 January

In Sumisip, Basilan, suspected Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) militants ambushed security forces protecting UN officials, killing two soldiers and injuring 12 others; two militants were killed in the ensuing gun battle.122.00535, 6.49716 Location precision: City

India 17 March

In Mahal, Nagpur city, Maharashtra, a protest against allegations of a Quran being burnt at a Bajrang Dal protest devolved into a riot; material damage to nearby property and vehicles was reported and at least four people were injured, including fire and police personnel.21.14325, 79.10932 Location precision: Street / neighborhood

Crime

Terrorism

Unrest

War

Driven largely by the impending ceasefire deal and its precarious implementation, verified unrest events in Israel doubled from 116 in Q4 to 233 in Q1.

Unrest levels in the region were highest in Iran, Morocco, Iraq, Israel, and Yemen. Unrest in Iran was consistent with Q4 levels, while there were notable decreases in Yemen (by 62%), Morocco (22%) and Iraq (13%).

Mozambique Protests against irregularities in the 2024 general elections continued into Q1 2025, but the number was significantly lower than in Q4 2024. Most protests were held in the capital Maputo and other southern towns and cites.

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The notable exception to an overall downward trend in Q1 was Congo (DRC), which recorded a 50% growth in unrest events due to several waves of protests against renewed advances by the M23 rebel group in eastern provinces.

Nepal witnessed a 185% increase in verified unrest events, largely due to a rise in pro-monarchy sentiment that led to protests, especially in Kathmandu.

Indonesia

Verified Unrest Events in Indonesia and Nepal, Q4 2024 – Q1 2025

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Verified Unrest Events, Americas, Q1 2025

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Unrest events in the Americas increased by 56% in Q1 2025, particularly targeting the government sector. Verified unrest events in the US rose 58% quarter-on-quarter, largely driven by opposition to the new administration’s policies and initiatives. Demonstrations were reported nationwide over cuts to the federal workforce, immigration policies and the role of Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

Climate-related unrest in the region was steady from Q4 to Q1, with the highest number of events recorded in the Netherlands, France and Italy. Most such unrest targeted the financial sector, followed by oil and gas, manufacturing and aviation. Serbia saw a 400% rise in student-led anti-government protests in Q1 2025, following the November 2024 collapse of a train station roof in Novi Sad that killed 16 people, which protesters blamed on government corruption. In neighboring North Macedonia, a fire at a nightclub that killed 59 people in mid-February sparked a number of protests.

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Verified Unrest Events, Serbia, Q4 2024 – Q1 2025

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Since the Hizbullah-Israel ceasefire in late November 2024, cross-border attacks from Lebanon to Israel ceased completely, apart from one rocket attack in December 2024 and two at the end of March 2025 following the breakdown of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Israeli military actions in Lebanon persisted at a much lower level in Q1 2025, chiefly gunfire and artillery shelling, with airstrikes mostly confined to within 10km of the border. However, Israel struck the southern suburbs of Beirut twice, on 28 March and 1 April, following the March rocket attack. Hizbullah will seek to avoid a full renewal of hostilities, but the threat of escalation will persist, though most likely not to scale seen at the end of Q3 and beginning of Q4 2024.

Israel

Verified War Events, Select MENA Countries, Q4 2024 – Q1 2025

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The geographical distribution of War events in Somalia, Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.

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Meanwhile, Somalia recorded a 75% increase in war events as clashes between security forces and insurgents intensified. The government and its allies conducted numerous air strikes against al-Shabab, killing militants and leaders. However militant groups will continue to pose threats across Somalia. Seerist also recorded an increase in war events in Congo (DRC) amid M23 advances in the east of the country.

In Taiwan, the frequency of Chinese military aircraft incursions across the median line of the Taiwan Strait increased slightly by 8%. Notably, 43 out of 59 Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) military aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line during patrols on 17 March.

Airstrike Gun (firearm) Artillery Arson/firebomb Capture Military drone Landmine Missle/rocket Drone Robbery

War Events by Attack Type, Myanmar, Q1 2025

Ukraine on 11 March launched its largest long-range drone strike against Moscow since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

This underscored Ukraine’s ability to strike deep inside Russia with domestically produced weapons. The attack involved 337 drones launched at targets across Russia, including 73 drones targeting Moscow. Russian forces conducted daily attacks against Ukraine's civilian, energy and military infrastructure. A US-backed ceasefire plan has so far made little headway and prospects for any deal remain distant.

Missle/rocket Knife/bladed weapon Military drone IED/homemade Gun (firearm) Vehicle ramming

Terrorism Events by Attack Type, Israel, Q1 2025

Between 19 January, when the Israel-Hamas ceasefire came into effect, and 18 March, the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations, only five terrorism events were recorded in Israel: a knife attack with five casualties, a vehicle ramming with 11 casualties, and three IEDs planted on buses in Tel Aviv that detonated while the buses were still empty, resulting only in material damage. No casualties were recorded in Q1 from any of the 37 missile/rocket and military drone attacks against Israel, as attacks launched from Yemen, Lebanon, or the Gaza Strip continue to fall in open areas or be successfully intercepted.

Seerist recorded 788 terrorism events in Israel in Q4 and only 45 in Q1.

Benin Terrorism events saw an increasing trend over the past year as Sahelian-based militant groups continued to expand their operations further south.

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Terrorism Events by Attack Type, Colombia, Q1 2025

There was a slight uptick in events involving improvised explosive devices (IEDs), including the use of explosive-laden drones, and car bombs—a trend that is unlikely to improve in Q2 2025. This situation aligns with the rise in war events in Colombia in Q1 2025, driven by increased military operations and escalating local conflicts among rival armed groups, particularly the National Liberation Army (ELN) and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents. In Chile, attacks by Mapuche militant groups showed no significant change compared to Q4 2024, consistent with the country's low terrorism risk rating.

With lone-wolf attackers employing low-cost, easily accessible weapons, these types of incidents are expected to persist throughout 2025, posing significant challenges for security forces.

Three stabbing attacks — in Apt (France, 25 January), Villach (Austria, 16 February) and Mulhouse (France, 22 February — appear to have been motivated by Islamist extremism.

DRC: M23 Rebel Offensive in Northeast

in-depth analysis

At the start of January 2024, the Rwandan-backed rebel paramilitary group March 23 (M23) began capturing localities in in North Kivu province, following a failed summit between the presidents of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in mid-December 2024.

The M23 offensive expanded into South Kivu province from late January onwards. The rebels on 28 January took control of Goma, the capital of North Kivu, shutting down the airport and seizing the state-run radio and television station, RTNC. The border between Rwanda and the DRC was also closed. These attacks sparked widespread protests, particularly in the DRC capital, Kinshasa, where embassies and shops were targeted. In response, the authorities imposed a ban on public demonstrations. M23 rebels on 16 February captured Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu, and on 19 March took control of Walikale (North Kivu), which has large tin deposits and gold mines.

In Q1 2025, Seerist verified 16% more high-impact crime events in Mexico compared with Q1 2024.* Within that overall increase, organized crime VEs recorded in the northern border states — Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas — rose by 61% in Q1 2025 over Q4 2024.

US/Mexico Border Security

in-depth analysis

What to Watch in Q2 2025

Click an event below for more information.

Low severity event

Medium severity event

MENA

APAC

Americas

Europe

Africa

African Lion 2025 military exercise 12 May – 23 May Morocco, Tunisia, Ghana, Senegal, United States

Event Name: African Lion 2025 military exercise Date: 12 May – 23 MayCategory; Sub Category: Military; Military ExerciseArmed forces from Morocco, Tunisia, Ghana, Senegal, the United States and several NATO members will take part in the annual African Lion military exercise, from 12 to 23 May, to train participants in military drills to counter nuclear, radiological, biological, and chemical threats. The exercise is intended to promote regional peace, collaboration and stability. Training will take place in several Moroccan cities including Agadir, Tan-Tan, Kenitra, Benguerir, and Tiznit. Around 7,000 military personnel participated in African Lion 2024, including several NATO member states. Disruption to transport, including airspace traffic, is expected. Potential Severity: LowPotential Impact Type: Transportation

Nationwide railway workers strike 11 June – 12 June Tunisia

Nationwide railway workers strike Date: 11 June – 12 JuneCategory; Sub Category: Military; Military ExerciseUnionized workers at the National Railway Company and the Railway Works Company announced a two-day strike on 11-12 June 2025, to demand the reinstatement of laid-off workers, guaranteed promotions for senior employees, meal allowances and the status settlement for degree-holding employees. Disruptions to company operations are likely during the strike. Potential Severity: LowPotential Impact Type: Security, Strike

By the end of March, M23 had resumed its advances west of Walikale and on the road to Mubi and Kisangani (Tshopo province) the fourth-largest city in DRC. According to Control Risks, M23 will continue to face resistance from pro-government “Wazalendo” militia, but the lack of strong Congolese defensive lines beyond Walikale means that M23 could progress with little resistance towards Kisangani.

Verified capture events by M23, North and South Kivu provinces, Q1 2025

M23 will continue to invoke various pretexts to resist or delay peace talks, as it has done throughout March. Angola on 24 March announced that it was terminating its mediation, leaving two separate peace efforts: a mediation panel of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and East African Community (EAC); and an effort by Qatari mediators to promote dialogue between the presidents of DRC and Rwanda, and possible direct talks between DRC and M23.

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Verified War Events, DRC, Q3 2024 – Q1 2025

Geographical distribution of M23 attacks in Congo (DRC), Q1 2025Base map shows Security risk ratings.

29 January DRC Evacuation Rating Rasied from Caution to Standby following the capture of Goma and violent unrest in Kinshasa 31 January Bukavu War Risk Rating Raised to High as M23 rebels captured territory in South Kivu province 12 March Goma and Bukavu Kidnap Rating Raised to High after a rise in kidnap incidents in the captured cities

The surge occurred despite security and political initiatives on both sides of the US-Mexico border in Q1 2025, including the US government’s designation of Mexican organized criminal groups (OCGs) as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs), and the Mexican government’s deployment of additional National Guard units to the border. In late February, Mexico handed over more than 29 prominent cartel figures to US law enforcement, reflecting greatly increased US pressure on Mexico over border security and immigration under the new US administration.

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VERIFIED CRIME EVENTS NATIONWIDE: Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024

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OCGs were the main perpetrators of verified crime events along the US-Mexico border, accounting for 89% of all crime events in the area.

Nuevo León state saw most VEs; neighboring Coahuila — the only northern border state with a medium security risk rating — registered the fewest. In January, southern Nuevo León state experienced a wave of violence targeting police across four municipalities, including targeted shootings and narcobloqueos (burning barricades on highways). There was a slight drop in verified crime events on the border in February, coinciding with the Mexican government’s deployment of 10,000 National Guard troops to the region. High-profile arrests were also reported in Tamaulipas and Chihuahua states that month. Even so, crime VEs rose again at the end of Q1 2025, and will likely remain elevated in Q2 2025.

OCG use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and explosive-laden drones was recorded in Tamaulipas and Chihuahua; though few in number, these illustrate OCGs’ growing technological capabilities and tactics. This trend will raise incidental security risks for businesses and personnel, particularly in border areas. A rancher in Brownsville (Texas) was killed after accidentally detonating an IED suspected to have been planted by cartel members. OCGs will avoid direct confrontations with US security forces, as this risks intense crackdowns and arrests. Instead, they will continue to attack Mexican security forces. In Q1 2025, 27% of OCG-related events along the border targeted police and military.

VEs in Mexican northern border states in Q1 2025 where OCGs were tagged as perpetrator.Base map shows Security risk ratings.

The designation of Mexican OCGs as FTOs will redefine the risk environment for businesses in Mexico, particularly in the north. In the short term, the reaction of OCGs to the designation is likely to be muted, but armed confrontations and retaliatory violence are likely to increase over the coming months as a result of high-profile arrests and the Mexican military reinforcement along the border. Security and operational risks along Mexico’s northern border will rise. *Methodology note: Crime events verified in Mexico focus on high-impact events, especially those with OCG involvement.

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Verified OCG Crime Events in Northern Border States, Q1 2025

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African Lion 2025 military exercise Date: 12 May – 23 MayCategory; Sub Category: Military; Military ExerciseArmed forces from Morocco, Tunisia, Ghana, Senegal, the United States and several NATO members will take part in the annual African Lion military exercise, from 12 to 23 May, to train participants in military drills to counter nuclear, radiological, biological, and chemical threats. The exercise is intended to promote regional peace, collaboration and stability. Training will take place in several Moroccan cities including Agadir, Tan-Tan, Kenitra, Benguerir, and Tiznit. Around 7,000 military personnel participated in African Lion 2024, including several NATO member states. Disruption to transport, including airspace traffic, is expected. Potential Severity: LowPotential Impact Type: Transportation

Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) summit in Antananarivo Date: 24 AprilCategory; Sub Category: Geopolitical; Multilateral MeetingThe Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) holds its 5th Summit of Heads of State on 24 April at the Ivato International Conference Center in Antananarivo, marking 40 years since the organization’s creation and a decade since the last summit in Moroni in 2014. Leaders will review four decades of regional cooperation and set out a shared vision for the future, focusing on food security, climate adaptation, economic development, and biodiversity preservation. Heightened security measures, including increased police presence and possible road closures or restricted access near the conference venue, are likely to lead to traffic disruption and alterations to public transport near the venue and delegate accommodation. Potential Severity: LowPotential Impact Type: Transportation

African Lion 2025 military exercise 12 May – 23 May Morocco, Tunisia, Ghana, Senegal, United States

Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) summit in Antananarivo 24 April Madagascar

Southern African cyclone season 1 January – 30 April Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mayotte, Comoros, Réunion, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mauritius, South Africa

Southern African cyclone season Date: 1 January – 30 AprilCategory; Sub Category: Severe weatherThe southern African cyclone season occurs annually from November through April, with affected countries often experiencing several cyclones each season. The cyclones regularly produce sustained wind speeds over 100km/hr. These severe weather events often cause fatalities and produce significant flooding, landslides and infrastructure damage, temporarily disrupting essential services such as electricity, water and medical services. By end of March, eight tropical cyclones (five classed as intense) have caused more than 200 casualties and an estimated $4bn in damage. Potential Severity: MediumPotential Impact Type: Transportation

Hefazat-e-Islam mass rally in Dhaka Date: 3 May Category; Sub Category: Security; ProtestIslamist pressure group Hefazat-e-Islam has announced plans to organize a mass rally in Dhaka on 3 May, to demand justice for the 2013 Shapla Square protests, the Bangladesh Rifles revolt (also called as Pilkhana killings), enforced disappearances, the anti-Modi movement of 2021, and the 2024 student movement uprising. Hefazat-e-Islam is also demanding the immediate withdrawal of all alleged “false” cases filed against their leaders and activists during the Awami League (AL)’s time in government. The exact time and location of the rally is likely to be announced closer to the date of the event. However, heightened security measures are expected in Dhaka, and the police may use force to disperse or arrest the protesters if they turn unruly. Temporary road diversions by the police and localized traffic disruption may occur along the rally. Potential Severity: LowPotential Impact Type: Transportation, Unrest

National election Date: 3 MayCategory; Sub Category: Political (election), ElectionAustralia will hold its federal election on 3 May. Besides the ruling Labor Party, main opposition Coalition (Liberal and National parties) and other minor parties, a high number of independent candidates is expected amid a long-term decline in the major party vote. Labor is likely to lose its slim majority in the lower house but has a greater chance than the Coalition of forming a minority government, given its current lead in seats held and the likelihood of a more ideologically aligned crossbench. Australia’s robust institutional framework will mean large-scale violence, protests or other serious threats to political stability are unlikely. Potential Severity: LowPotential Impact Type: Unrest

Exercise Balikatan 2025 Date: 15 April – 30 AprilCategory; Sub Category: Military; Military ExerciseThe Philippine Navy announced that its annual joint military exercise with the United States will be conducted in mid-April to early May, focusing on readiness against emerging threats, enhancing interoperability, and strengthening collective responses to regional security challenges. The exercise involves live-firing drills in the West Philippine Sea, a region that is part of the South China Sea but falls within Philippine's exclusive economic zone. One of the live-firing drills is scheduled to take place on 21 April off Mariveles, Bataan, while the details of other components of the exercise have yet to be announced. Australia, Japan and the UK may join Exercise Balikatan as observers. During the exercise, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy may elevate its presence near the operational areas. Potential Severity: LowPotential Impact Type: Conflict

Exercise Balikatan 2025 15 April – 30 April Philippines; United States of America

Hefazat-e-Islam mass rally in Dhaka 3 May Bangladesh

National election 3 May Australia

General election 12 May Philippines

General election Date: 13 MayCategory; Sub Category: Political (election), ElectionHalf of the Senate (upper house of Congress) and all local government seats, including those in the lower house of Congress, are up for election for their six- and three-year terms, respectively. President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr is not running for election, but the polls will serve as a test of his popularity. While the race is set to be highly competitive, especially at the local level, those who are aligned with the Marcos administration are likely to enjoy advantages due to their access to stronger campaign machinery. Election-related incidents, particularly at the local government level, are likely to increase but deterioration of the security environment is unlikely. Potential Severity: LowPotential Impact Type: Political

Exercise Balikatan 2025 15 April – 30 April Philippines; United States of America

Boston Marathon 2025 21 April United States

State of Emergency in Lima and Callao regions 18 March – 18 April Peru

Judicial elections campaign period 30 March – 28 May Mexico

Boston Marathon 2025 Date: 21 April Category; Sub Category: Other, Sporting EventThe 129th Boston Marathon will take place on Monday, 21 April 2025, following its traditional route from Hopkinton to Boston. The race will pass through Hopkinton, Ashland, Framingham, Natick, Wellesley, Newton, Brookline, and Boston, causing major road closures and traffic restrictions throughout the day. Road closures will begin early in the morning, with Boston closures lasting until approximately 19.00 (local time). Security measures will be extensive, with increased police presence, checkpoints, and surveillance to ensure the safety of runners and spectators. Potential Severity: MediumPotential Impact Type: Transportation

State of Emergency in Lima and Callao regions Date: 18 March – 18 AprilCategory; Sub Category: Other; State of EmergencyThe government declared a 30-day State of Emergency in Lima and Callao regions to curb rising criminality. This involves the suspension of several constitutional rights of citizens and grants additional judicial faculties to the security forces. Potential Severity: MediumPotential Impact Type: Crime, Transportation

Judicial elections campaign period Date: 30 March – 28 MayCategory; Sub Category: Political (election), Campaign PeriodThe campaign period for the first round of judicial elections will start on 31 March. A total of 881 positions within the Federal Judicial Branch (PJF) will be up for election nationwide, with over 5,000 candidates participating. The campaign period will conclude on 28 May, with the polls on on 1 June. The elections follow a 2024 judicial reform that will restructure the federal judiciary through popular election of judges and Supreme Court (SCJN) justices. The reform has faced widespread disapproval across the country, including from PJF workers, who initiated a series of strikes throughout 2024. Political violence typically rises during electoral campaign periods in Mexico. Unrest risks are also likely to be high due to discontent over the reforms. There is a risk of minor disruption and low-level violence during rallies or other campaign events, and a wave of national demonstrations opposing the elections is likely. Potential Severity: MediumPotential Impact Type: Unrest, Crime, Political

G7 Leaders’ Summit 2025 15 June – 17 June Canada

G7 Leaders’ Summit 2025 Date: 15 June – 17 JuneCategory; Sub Category: Geopolitical; Intergovernmental ForumThe G7 Leaders’ Summit is scheduled to take place on 15-17 June, 2025, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada. The summit will convene leaders from the G7 nations—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—along with representatives from the EU. Discussions will focus on building economies that benefit everyone, fighting climate change, and managing rapidly evolving technologies. Stringent security measures are likely in and around Kananaskis. Measures may include road closures, security checkpoints, and increased surveillance, potentially leading to traffic disruption. Protests are common throughout G7 meetings as environmental, and other civil society groups have in the past organized protest marches near the meeting locations, demanding more action to fight climate change. Potential Severity: LowPotential Impact Type: Transportation, Unrest

Parliamentary elections 11 May Albania

Nationwide health workers strike 23 May – 24 May Spain

Roland-Garros (French Open) 2025 19 May – 8 June France

Nationwide strike by Menzies airport ground service workers 18 April – 20 April Portugal

Just Stop Oil final protest in London 26 April United Kingdom

Nationwide health workers strike Date: 23 May – 24 MayCategory; Sub Category: Security, StrikeUnionized healthcare workers will hold a 24-hour strike to reject a government reform of their labor structure. Clashes with security forces are possible if road blockades are established. Potential Severity: MediumPotential Impact Type: Transportation, Unrest

Nationwide strike by Menzies airport ground service workers Date: 18 April – 20 AprilCategory; Sub Category: Security; StrikeUnionized Menzies Metallurgical and Related Industries Union (SIMA) workers announced a three-day strike at airports in Portugal, to demand better wages, paid night shifts, and a parking spot for every worker. Given precedent, the strike is likely to be well-attended and cause some travel disruption. Potential Severity: LowPotential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation

Just Stop Oil final protest in London Date: 26 AprilCategory; Sub Category: Security, ProtestThe environmental activist group Just Stop Oil will hold its final protest action in London following the announcement of the conclusion of its three-year civil resistance campaign. Participants will gather in Parliament Square. Further details about the gathering have not yet been released. Typically, Just Stop Oil activists protest against the fossil fuel industry and employ disruptive direct action tactics, including roadblocks and vandalism. Given that this is the organization’s final demonstration, it is likely to attract a large turnout. Expect traffic disruption and heightened security near the protest location. Potential Severity: MediumPotential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation

Parliamentary elections Date: 11 MayCategory; Sub Category: Political (election), ElectionAlbania will elect the 140 members of the Kuvendi (unicameral parliament). The governing center-left Socialist Party (PS), which as of early January was polling at 50.3%, is likely to win the most seats in parliament over its closest rival, the Democratic Party – Alliance for Change (PD-AN) coalition, which was polling at 48.67%. Frequent disruptive and violent protests by PD-AN supporters have taken place over the past year, with protesters accusing the government of politicized arrests and corruption and calling repeatedly for the installation of a caretaker government. Disruptive protests by PD-AN supporters are likely to continue in the lead up to and following the elections, with civil unrest and low-level violence (such as clashes with police or vandalism) likely to continue. However, such events are unlikely to disrupt election proceedings. Potential Severity: MediumPotential Impact Type: Unrest

NATO Summit 2025 24 June – 25 June Netherlands

Roland-Garros (French Open) 2025 Date: 19 May – 8 JuneCategory; Sub Category: Other, Sporting EventThe French Open is scheduled from 19 May to 8 June 2025, at the Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. In light of previous security incidents in France and during major sporting events, organizers are expected to implement heightened security measures to ensure the safety of players and attendees. These measures may include increased police presence, enhanced screening procedures, and restricted access zones within and around the venue. Additionally, road closures and traffic diversions are likely in the vicinity of the stadium. These could lead to significant traffic congestion in surrounding areas. The potential for protests and labor strikes remains high: activist groups, unions, and other demonstrators have previously targeted high-profile events to amplify their demands, sometimes resulting in roadblocks, transport disruptions, and clashes with security forces. Potential Severity: MediumPotential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation, Terrorism

NATO Summit 2025 Date: 24 June – 25 JuneCategory; Sub Category: SOther, Sporting EvenThe NATO Summit is scheduled to take place on 24-25 June, at the World Forum in The Hague, Netherlands. The summit will convene approximately 45 heads of state and government, 90 defense and foreign ministers, and around 6,000 delegation members. Discussions will focus on global developments impacting Euro-Atlantic security, the introduction of new policies, and the strengthening of alliances. Given the high-profile nature of the event, authorities plan to deploy 27,000 police officers, marking the largest security operation in Dutch history. Security measures will include road closures on major routes such as the A4 and A5 to ensure the safe transit of summit attendees. These measures are expected to cause significant traffic disruption in and around The Hague. Protests are also likely, with demonstrations and disruption in the vicinity of the event. Potential Severity: MLowPotential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation

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Germany 25 January In Untermenzing, Munich, Bavaria, 23 police vehicles outside a police station were reportedly set on fire, causing damages worth EUR 2 million (USD 2,092,378) in a suspected arson attack. 48.18448, 11.44832 Location precision: Street / neighborhood Germany 3 March Near the water tower in Paradeplatz, downtown Mannheim, Baden-Württemberg, an individual rammed a vehicle into a crowd, killing two people and injuring 25 others; one suspect with a history of mental illness was arrested. 49.48343, 8.47511 Location precision: Street / neighborhood Germany 13 February At the intersection of Dachauer Straße and Seidlstraße, Munich, Bavaria, a car rammed into a crowd of Ver.di protesters, killing at least two people and injuring 37 others; police officers shot and detained the perpetrator, an asylum seeker, originally from Afghanistan. 48.14746, 11.55900 Location precision: Street / neighborhood Netherlands 25 January In Assen, Drenthe province, unidentified attackers broke into a museum with explosives in the early morning and left with several Romanian archaeological gold pieces. 52.99335, 6.56397 Location precision: Asset / building / business Austria 15 February In Villach, Carinthia, a Syrian asylum seeker stabbed several people, killing one male youth and injuring five other people; police arrested the attacker and officials said he had Islamist extremist motives. 46.61434, 13.84691 Location precision: Street / neighborhood Italy 28 March Near San Vincenzo, Tuscany, about 10 masked gunmen used trucks to block the Aurelia road to two armoured vans delivering cash for post offices, opening the doors with explosives and causing fires; they stole around EUR 4 million (USD 4.3 million). 43.10506, 10.54110 Location precision: Street / neighborhood Russia 20 March At the Engels-2 airfield, Saratov region, Ukrainian drones targeted missile-storage depots, causing explosions and a large fire, according to Ukrainian sources; an official said that residents living near the airbase were evacuated. 51.48265, 46.20998 Location precision: Asset / building / business Serbia 15 March In Belgrade, between 275,000 and 325,000 students and other demonstrators gathered to hold anti-government rallies over a railway station collapse in Novi Sad in November 2024, but the government claimed that 107,000 people attended the rallies; firework detonations were reported. 44.81001, 20.46497 Location precision: City North Macedonia 17 March In Kočani, thousands of people gathered in the central square to hold a silent protest and vigil for the victims of a nightclub fire disaster and to demand an end to corruption which they blamed for the disaster; protesters smashed the windows of the house of Kočani's mayor and of a bar belonging to the owner of the nightclub. 41.91544, 22.40894Location precision: Street / neighborhood Greece 28 February In Athens, hundreds of thousands of people marched to demand justice for the victims of a train collision on 23 February 2023 in Tempi (Larissa region) that killed 57 people; Molotov cocktails were thrown outside the parliament building, the police used tear gas to disperse the demonstrators, and at least 29 people were injured. 37.97552, 23.73490 Location precision: City Russia 12 March In Kursk region, Russian troops seized Sudzha city along with four settlements on its outskirts, according to state officials. 51.19138, 35.27055Location precision: City

Israel 20 February On Begin Street, Bat Yam, Tel Aviv, an empty bus exploded in the parking lot near the stadium due to an IED attack; no casualties were reported and the incident is being investigated as a suspected coordinated terror attack. 32.00199, 34.74714Location precision: Street / neighborhood Israel 19 March On Azza street in Jerusalem, hundreds of anti-government protesters gathered near the residence of PM Netanyahu and lit a bonfire in the street to condemn the resumption of the war in Gaza, clashing with police; police sprayed water cannons to disperse the protesters and one protestor was beaten and injured. 31.77203, 35.21356Location precision: Street / neighborhood Syria 16 January In the Tishrin dam area, Aleppo governorate, Turkish-backed forces targeted the area with airstrikes; five civilians were killed and 40 others were injured. 36.3809, 38.17894 Location precision: Asset / building / business Syria 6 March Near Jableh, Latakia governorate, a gunfight broke out after former Syrian regime soldiers carried out attacks targeting the Khmeimim air base, several security checkpoints and patrols; 16 police officers, 28 former Syrian regime soldiers, and four civilians were reportedly killed. 35.39991, 35.94642 Location precision: Street / neighborhood Lebanon 28 March In Hadath, south of Beirut, Mount Lebanon governorate, Israeli security forces claimed to have targeted a Hizbullah weapon's storage facility with drone strikes; at least one person was injured. 33.84711, 35.52131 Location precision: Street / neighborhood Yemen 15 March In Sanaa, US airstrikes against Houthi targets left at least 15 people dead and nine others wounded, according to Houthi media. 15.35444, 44.20555 Location precision: City Algeria 14 March In Bordj Badji Mokhtar city, Malian security forces reportedly targeted two Algerian military trucks with a drone strike; 13 civilians were killed and several others were injured. 21.32563, 0.95279 Location precision: City Tunisia 18 March At Maersk's Tunisian headquarters, La Goulette, pro-Palestine activists painted the walls with red paint and clashed with company workers during a protest condemning Maersk allegedly shipping weapons to Israel. 36.83151, 10.30845 Location precision: Asset / building / business Libya 12 February Near Palm City, Tripoli, unidentified gunmen opened fire at a vehicle carrying Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs Adel Jumaa in a suspected targeted attack; the vehicle was reportedly hit by 14 bullets and the minister injured. 32.84177, 13.04876 Location precision: Street / neighborhood Egypt 31 January At the Rafah border crossing, along the Gaza-Egypt border, North Sinai province, thousands of Egyptians gathered in a state-sanctioned protest to denounce a proposal by US President Donald Trump for Egypt and Jordan to accept Palestinians from Gaza. 31.24708, 34.25466 Location precision: Asset / building / business

Benin 8 January In the Point Triple zone, Alibori, Benin, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) militants ambushed an army platoon at around 16:00 local time, killing at least 28 soldiers; attackers were repelled after several hours of fighting. 11.89814, 2.41150 Location precision: Street / neighborhood Rwanda 27 January In Rubavu, Western Province, at least five civilians were killed and 25 others injured in a cross-border firefight and shelling between the Rwanda Defence Forces and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. -1.68940, 29.29584 Location precision: City South Sudan 7 March Near Nasir town, Upper Nile, a United Nations (UN) helicopter attempting to evacuate SSPDF soldiers was shot at by ‘White Army’ Nuer militiamen, killing one UN worker, an SSPDF general, and 27 soldiers. 8.61764, 33.06472 Location precision: City Sudan 26 March In Khartoum City, Khartoum, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recaptured Khartoum International Airport from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), securing it completely, according to Sudanese military sources. 15.59257, 32.54974 Location precision: Asset / building / business Mozambique 5 March In Hulene, Maputo, hundreds of supporters of opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane followed his motorcade during a procession; police opened fire, injuring 16 people, and forcing the procession to end. -25.90051, 32.59943 Location precision: Street / neighborhood Ethiopia 11 March In Mekelle, Tigray, forces loyal to the head of the TPLF, Debretsion Gebremichael, launched attacks against forces loyal to Tigrayan interim regional leader, Getachew Reda, prompting clashes that caused multiple casualties. 13.49600, 39.47237 Location precision: City Burkina Faso 28 March In Diapaga, Tapoa, Est region, suspected JNIM Islamist insurgents attacked a military camp, killing around 60 soldiers and defense volunteers and stealing weapons and ammunition; the rest of the equipment was set on fire.12.07061, 1.78887 Location precision: City DRC 14 February In South Kivu province, M23 rebels captured the city of Bukavu, the provincial capital, entering the city without any confrontations from Army soldiers. -2.50342, 28.85279 Location precision: City DRC 27 January In Goma, North Kivu, media reports said that M23 rebels shut down the airport and occupied the state-run radio and television station, RTNC; the border between Rwanda and DRC was also closed, and looting and sporadic gunfire occurred. -1.65776, 29.23705 Location precision: Asset / building / business DRC 19 March In North Kivu province, M23 rebels seized Walikale town, after some fighting with Army soldiers and Wazalendo militiamen. -1.42967, 28.07422 Location precision: City

Guatemala 18 March In Guatemala City, locals, and taxi and bus drivers blocked roads in at least 11 places to protest against the government’s decision to introduce mandatory nationwide vehicle insurance; major traffic disruptions were reported throughout the city.14.63286, -90.50423 Location precision: City Panama 12 February In Panama City, members of several workers' unions blockaded Avenue Balboa and Cinta Costera while protesting over proposed reforms to the Social Security Fund; clashes involving stone-throwing and tear gas erupted with police, leaving at least 16 policemen injured and over 450 arrested.8.96987, -79.53069 Location precision: Street / neighborhood United States 1 January On Bourbon Street, New Orleans, Louisiana, a truck driver rammed his vehicle into a crowd of people and exchanged gunfire with the police, killing at least 14 people and injuring dozens; two IEDs were also planted in the French Quarter, concealed in coolers.29.95459, -90.06927 Location precision: Street / neighborhood United States 2 February In downtown Los Angeles, California, thousands of people gathered to protest against President Donald Trump's policies for mass deportations; the march temporarily blocked Hwy 101 both ways.34.04889, -118.25222 Location precision: Street / neighborhood United States 14 March In Washington D.C., veterans and local activists rallied at the National Mall against President Donald Trump, Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) over cuts to the federal workforce.38.88752, -77.03641 Location precision: Asset / building / business Colombia 17 January In the Catatumbo region (northeast Norte de Santander department and southeast Chocó), at least 30 people were killed, including 5 demobilized FARC members, and ten others were injured in clashes between the ELN and FARC militants that erupted on 16 January. Location precision: State / province Colombia 17 January In Aserrío, Teorama, Norte de Santander, National Liberation Army (ELN) militants abducted at least 20 people, following the government's announcement of the suspension of peace talks with the armed group and clashes with FARC dissidents. 8.43752, -73.28694Location precision: City Argentina 5 March In Buenos Aires city, retirees and pensioners rallied outside Congress against President Javier Milei's budget cuts to government spending and to demand better wages and pensions; clashes with the police were reported and 40 people were injured. -32.95938, -60.69355Location precision: Street / neighborhood

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