Risk Intelligence Brief
The Signals Shaping Global Security in Q2
Seerist’s Intelligence Team verified more than 39,600 war, terrorism, unrest and organized crime events globally in Q1 2026.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
READ THE BRIEF
What to Watch Q2
Emerging Trends
Unrest
War
Terrorism
Russia-Ukraine
Mexico
US-Israel-Iran
In-Depth Analysis
Notable Events Q1
Military: 45 Law enforcement / Legal: 42 Private Property: 33 Government: 8 Rail: 3
Presidential Election Colombia The election will determine the president and vice-president in a highly polarized environment. The left-wing ruling party's candidate, Iván Cepeda, is leading the polls. The right remains fragmented, but Paloma Valencia’s strong performance in the primaries positions her as the main challenger, likely to prevail in a tight run-off given a greater appeal to centrist, undecided voters. Unrest is unlikely during the first round but more likely in the run-off, particularly if results are contested. Widespread or sustained violence is unlikely. Category: Election Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Unrest
Atlantic Hurricane Season Jamaica, Grenada, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Honduras, El Salvador, British Virgin Islands, US Virgin Islands, Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, St Lucia, St Kitts and Nevis, Belize, Costa Rica, Haiti The Atlantic hurricane season occurs annually from 1 June and typically lasts until 30 November, heightening natural disaster risks for coastal and inland areas near the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Depending on severity, tropical storms and hurricanes can cause high winds, heavy rainfall, flooding, and storm surges. Public safety alerts, evacuation orders, power outages, airport and road closures and disruption to essential services such as water and healthcare are possible in affected areas. Category: Severe Weather Potential severity: Medium Potential impact type: Disasters, Transport
Presidential Run-off Peru Peru is due to hold its presidential run-off following presidential and parliamentary elections on 12 April. The race to join Keiko Fujimori in the run-off is very tight between leftist former minister Roberto Sánchez and conservative former Lima mayor Rafael López Aliaga. A recount is possible, and the narrow margin is likely to fuel accusations of fraud and increase the threat of social unrest, particularly in the south (Sánchez supporters) or Lima (Aliaga supporters). Category: Election Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Unrest
2026 FIFA World Cup Canada, Mexico, US The 2026 FIFA World Cup will take place from 11 June across three countries, featuring 48 teams and 104 matches. Games will be played across 16 host cities. US locations are Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Seattle. Canada will host matches in Toronto and Vancouver, and Mexico’s host cities are Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey. Category: Sporting event Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Unrest
31 May 2026; 21 June 2026 (run-off)
1 June – 30 November 2026
7 JUNE 2026
11 June – 19 July 2026
The Africa CEO Forum Rwanda The Africa CEO Forum 2026 will take place on 14-15 May at the Kigali Convention Centre, bringing together more than 2,800 participants, including CEOs, heads of state, ministers, and investors, to discuss the role of the private sector in African development. Large-scale demonstrations are unlikely due to Rwanda’s tight security environment, but small or symbolic protests and online activism are possible, particularly if controversial deals are announced. Local traffic disruption is likely in the vicinity during the event. Category: Other Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Unrest, Transport
Parliamentary Elections Guinea Legislative and local elections will take place on 24 May. The ruling camp, headed by President Mamady Doumbouya, is highly likely to secure victory given the opposition’s continued weakness and marginalization. This will enable Doumbouya to further consolidate power and govern with minimal obstruction. Persistent opposition grievances are unlikely to translate into significant unrest, and the political environment is likely to remain broadly stable before and during the election period. Category: Election Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Unrest
Parliamentary Elections Cabo Verde The country will elect 72 members of the National Assembly, with seats allocated through closed-list proportional representation. The main contest is between the two parties that have traded power since the country democratised in 1991: the Movement for Democracy (Movimento para a Democracia, MpD), seeking a third consecutive term, and the opposition African Party for the Independence of Cabo Verde (Partido Africano da Independência de Cabo Verde, PAICV). The risk of election-related civil unrest is low. Category: Election Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Unrest
African Development Bank Meetings Congo The African Development Bank’s 61st annual meetings take place at the Kintele International Conference Centre in Brazzaville. The meetings will attract more than 3,000 participants, including finance ministers, central bank governors, development partners, and private sector leaders across Africa. The event carries moderate protest risks, particularly around issues such as debt burdens, austerity measures, and perceived external influence over domestic economic policy. Category: Other Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Unrest, Transport
14-15 May 2026
24 May 2026
25-29 May 2026
17 May 2026
Labor Day Rallies Indonesia The Labor Party and the Confederation of Indonesian Trade Unions (KSPI) will hold nationwide demonstrations on Labor Day. In Central Jakarta their rally will be held between 10.00 and 12.00 outside the parliamentary complex, with around 50,000 workers expected. A simultaneous rally will be held at the National Monument (Monas), attended by President Prabowo Subianto and other trade unions. Increased police presence and road closures will be implemented near both sites, though both rallies are likely to proceed peacefully. Category: Security, Protest Potential severity: Medium Potential impact type: Unrest, Transport
ASEAN Summit 2026 Philippines The Philippines will host the 48th ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in Cebu. The meeting forms part of a broader series of ASEAN engagements across several locations in the country during its chairmanship. The summit will center on regional resilience, economic integration, and collective responses to emerging geopolitical and technological challenges. Small-scale protests outside venues hosting summit activities are likely. Expect heightened police presence and localized traffic disruption, such as road closures and barricades for perimeter security. Category: Geopolitical, Intergovernmental Forum Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Unrest, Transport
1 May 2026
8 – 9 May 2026
RMT London Underground drivers to launch series of strike actions United Kingdom RMT union drivers are planning several strike actions across the London Underground network in April and May in a dispute over working conditions. Strikes are planned: from 12:00 on 21 April to 11:59 on 22 April; from 12:00 on 23 April to 11:59 on 24 April; from 12:00 on 19 May to 11:59 on 20 May; and from 12:00 on 21 May to 11:59 on 22 May. The actions are likely to cause significant disruption to services. Category: Security, Strike Potential severity: Medium Potential impact type: Transport
Parliamentary elections Armenia Independent polls place Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of the incumbent Civil Contract party in the lead. A new pro-Russia party – Mer Dzevov – likely represents the most credible electoral challenge to Pashinyan. Category: Election Potential severity: Medium Potential impact type: Unrest
Pro-Palestinian/'Nakba anniversary’ Demonstration in London United Kingdom A collection of organizations, including the Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC), are planning a pro-Palestinian demonstration in central London in commemoration of the 78th anniversary of the 'Palestinian Nakba' (15 May). Participants are set to gather at a yet-to-be disclosed location in central London from 12:00 (local time). Thousands of people are likely to attend. Scuffles with police and isolated arrests are likely. Significant transportation disruption should be expected in the vicinity. Category: Geopolitical, Intergovernmental Forum Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Unrest, Transport
G7 Leaders Summit 2026 France The G7 Leaders’ Summit takes place in Évian-les-Bains, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, France. The summit will convene leaders from the G7 nations and representatives from the EU. Discussions will focus on reducing global inequality and navigating geopolitical crises. The authorities are likely to implement stringent security measures in and around the summit including road closures, security checkpoints, and increased surveillance. Protests are common around G7 meetings, including by environmental and other civil society groups. Category: Geopolitical, Intergovernmental Forum Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Unrest, Transport
21 April – 22 May 2026
7 June 2026
15-17 June 2026
16 May 2026
Yom Ha’atzmaut Israel Israel’s Independence Day, also known as Yom Ha’atzmaut, marks the anniversary of the Declaration of Independence of Israel. Many businesses are likely to shut down or operate on reduced hours. Protests and rallies are possible, in which case, transport disruption will be likely, especially in urban areas. The terrorism threat may be elevated during Yom Ha’atzmaut in the wake of the conflict with Iran. Category: Holiday; National Potential severity: Medium Potential impact type: Transport, Terrorism
Eid al-Adha Various Eid al-Adha (Day of Sacrifice) is an Islamic holiday celebrated by Muslim communities worldwide and observed as a three-day public holiday in many Muslim-majority countries. Public services, including transport, are likely to be disrupted; government offices and schools will be closed. Security may be heightened around mosques and religious sites during this time. Category: Holiday; Religious Potential severity: Medium Potential impact type: Transport, Terrorism
Liberation and Resistance Day Lebanon Resistance and Liberation Day is a public holiday in Lebanon celebrated to mark the end of the 22-year-long Israeli military occupation of Southern Lebanon. Many businesses are likely to shut down or operate on reduced hours. Category: Holiday; National Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Transport
Ashura Various This religious holiday is marked by Sunni and Shia Muslims. Sunni communities celebrate the anniversary of Moses’ parting of the Red Sea; Shia communities commemorate the death of the third Shia imam in the Battle of Karbala. The holiday is marked by festivals, ritual processions, and religious gatherings. These are likely to cause transport disruption. There is heightened risk of terrorist violence targeting Shia places of worship; security measures are likely to be heightened around these areas. Category: Holiday; Religious Potential severity: Medium Potential impact type: Terrorism, Transport
22 April 2026
27 – 29 May 2026
25-26 June 2026
25 May 2026
Ivan Cepeda Castro, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
What to Watch Q2 Americas
What to Watch Q2 Africa
What to Watch Q2 APAC
What to Watch Q2 Europe
What to Watch Q2 MENA
Americas
Africa
APAC
Europe
MENA
US President Donald Trump’s Visit to China China US President Donald Trump announced that his visit to China has been rescheduled to 14–15 May, originally planned for 31 March to 2 April. As of writing, the official agenda for the meeting has yet to be released. While China has not yet confirmed the visit, the talks are expected to take place in the capital, Beijing. Category: Geopolitical; Bilateral Meeting Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Political
Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 Singapore The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is scheduled to host the Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 at the Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore. The defense summit will convene government ministers, senior officials, business leaders, and security experts from around the world to discuss critical regional security challenges and share policy responses. Heightened security measures, including increased police presence and restricted access near the hotel, will be implemented by the authorities. Category: Geopolitical, Multilateral Meeting Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Transport
14 – 15 May 2026
29 – 31 May 2026
General Elections Ethiopia Voters will elect members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives (HoPR, lower house); Regional State Councils; and selected local councils. The HoPR has 547 seats, but security constraints will almost certainly prevent them all being contested, with voting unlikely in most of Amhara state, large parts of Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz, and Tigray. Some protests are likely, but extensive repression and surveillance will prevent widespread unrest. The ruling Prosperity Party (PP) is likely to retain its majority, and Abiy Ahmed to remain prime minister. Category: Election Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Unrest
1 JUNE 2026
Local Elections South Korea South Korea holds local elections on 3 June for municipal and provincial offices. As the first nationwide vote since President Lee Jae myung took office in June 2025, the elections are widely viewed as an early test of his political momentum and future control over the national agenda. Key issues include cost of living pressures – particularly employment, housing affordability and energy burdens linked to the Middle East crisis – and a proposed constitutional amendment. The risk of political violence is low. Category: Election Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Unrest
3 June 2026
Previous
Next
Home
Ethiopian Parliament, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
National Monument, Jakarta
Ashura in Iran
Nikol Pashinyan
Verified unrest events in the MENA region declined by 24% quarter-on-quarter, following a 15% drop from Q3 to Q4 2025. The trend was largely driven by developments in Iran. Unrest there surged in January, with nearly a month of nationwide anti-government protests triggered by the collapse of the rial (currency) and broader economic grievances. However, protest levels fell sharply after US-Israeli hostilities began, by 62% in February and a further 73% in March. Looking ahead, unrest in the region is likely to continue tracking major political and military developments. Further escalation of the US-Israel/Iran conflict is likely to trigger spikes in protests, while unrest following the Israeli Knesset’s 30 March decision to permit the death penalty for Palestinian prisoners is expected to persist into early April.
January 2026
Iran Verified Unrest Events
February 2026
March 2026
Protest levels in Iran fell sharply after US-Israeli hostilities began, by 62% in February and a further 73% in March.
Unrest events in the Americas rose by 60% in Q1 2026 compared with Q4 2025, with most protests targeting the government sector. The US recorded the largest increase (107% quarter-on-quarter), driven by protests against US involvements abroad and by internal developments such as the “Free America Walkout” and “No Kings” movements, which mobilized large-scale participation. Other countries saw more moderate increases in unrest events, including Brazil (related to economic pressures), Argentina (austerity and inflation), and Mexico (security and governance concerns). Looking ahead, unrest in Q2 will be driven by US policy decisions, Middle East dynamics (and related price impacts), and the FIFA World Cup.
US Verified Unrest Events by Sector, Q4 2025 v Q1 2026
Unrest events in Africa increased around 6% from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, with considerable variation behind the headline figure. South Africa recorded a 76% rise in verified unrest events, driven by protests over service delivery targeting the government. Further localized protests are likely over the coming year as citizens continue to experience breakdowns in basic services such as water provision. Tanzania saw a large drop in unrest events as the government’s hardline stance and heavy security deployment following unrest in late October 2025 deterred demonstrators. Unrest events in Uganda decreased by around 14%, indicating that heightened security measures and political controls following the January elections suppressed protest activity.
In Q2, rising fuel costs may exacerbate socio-economic pressures in the region, increasing the likelihood of unrest.
Government Law enforcement / Legal Education Healthcare Military Retail
The APAC region experienced a 24% quarterly increase in verified unrest events, primarily driven by significant rises in India (48%) and Australia (32%). In India, trade unions called nationwide strikes on 12 February to oppose new labor codes, causing widespread disruption to business and transport. In Australia, tens of thousands protested on 9 February in Melbourne against Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s visit. Other protests related to international issues, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Protests over fuel price hikes linked to Strait of Hormuz disruptions took place in several countries, notably Philippines and India. These are likely to continue into Q2 2026 as energy supply disruption persists and government fiscal buffers shrink.
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
788
2223
458
1436
159
536
66
70
39
141
64
46
Unrest in Q2 will be driven by US policy decisions, Middle East dynamics (and related price impacts), and the FIFA World Cup.
South Africa verified unrest events, Q1 2026
APAC Verified Unrest Events Linked to Fuel, Oil, and Gas Shortages or Price Increases, Q1 2026
15 March, India: Statewide protest over liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinder shortages in Tamil Nadu.
1
2
19 March, the Philippines: Nationwide transport strike against oil price hikes.
Unrest in Europe rose sharply in Q1 in Austria (+170%), Germany (+84%), Portugal (+72%), Ireland (+57%), the UK (+46%), and Spain (+34%). Austria and Germany saw strong labor and public sector mobilization, alongside protests against rearmament and potential conscription. In Portugal and Spain, unrest was driven by cost-of-living pressures and farmer protests, including opposition to the EU–Mercosur deal. Ireland and the UK saw large pro-Palestine and anti-war demonstrations, particularly in March, when there was a broader spike of unrest across the region linked to the Iran conflict. Climate protests declined by 19%, with the largest falls in Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain. Unrest levels fell significantly in Greece, Italy, and Bulgaria.
Europe Verified Unrest Events Linked to the Military Sector, Q1 2026
Looking ahead, protest risks are likely to persist over rearmament and geopolitical tensions.
Emerging Trends Unrest
Protests over fuel price hikes are likely to continue into Q2.
Verified war events in MENA more than tripled from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 following US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February. War events increased nearly sevenfold from February to March as the conflict expanded beyond Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Territories to encompass the wider Gulf region. War events in the Palestinian Territories fell by 23%, but activity escalated sharply elsewhere. In March we recorded more than 1,150 events across Israel and Iran combined, and more than 1,900 in Lebanon. Looking ahead, the ceasefire established at the time of writing will remain fragile, with the risk of re-escalation rising up to the initial two-week period, and likely to remain elevated even if the ceasefire is extended.
Gulf Region Verified War Events, 28 February – 31 March 2026
Looking ahead, the ceasefire established at the time of writing will remain fragile.
War events in the Americas rose 45% in Q1 2026, alongside a geographic shift driven by US military operations. Activity in Q4 2025 was concentrated in Colombia, but Q1 saw US forces conduct airstrikes targeting military infrastructure in Caracas and capture President Nicolás Maduro. However, Colombia still accounted for 76% of verified war events in the region amid sustained clashes between security forces and leftist guerrilla groups. Airstrikes by security forces more than doubled quarter-on-quarter, reflecting increased operational intensity. In the near term, conflict risk in parts of the Americas is likely to remain elevated, particularly in the northern Andean region, where US military engagement, border militarization, and sustained armed-group activity are likely to drive localized spillover risks across Colombia, Venezuela, and Ecuador.
Airstrikes by security forces in Colombia more than doubled quarter-on-quarter, reflecting increased operational intensity.
Caracas verified war events, Q1 2026
War events in Africa rose by approximately 10% in Q1 2026 compared with Q4 2025. The sharpest increase (130%) occurred in South Sudan, driven by both spillover from the Sudan conflict and intensified internal violence – particularly South Sudan People’s Defense Force (army) operations against the White Army, an ethnic Nuer militia aligned with Vice-President Riek Machar. Spillover from Sudan also contributed to a rise in war events in Chad, where cross-border incursions by Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) prompted military responses from Chadian forces. Looking ahead, war events are likely to remain elevated in Q2 due to persistent insurgencies and the intractable nature of the Sudan conflict. The risk of renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, and potential escalation involving Eritrea, are also areas to monitor.
Looking ahead, war events are likely to remain elevated in Q2.
Chad/Sudan border verified war events, Q1 2026
The APAC region saw an 18% quarterly fall in verified war events, despite notable rises in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The two countries’ border conflict escalated on 27–28 February after Pakistan forces attacked militant camps across Afghanistan on 21 February. The conflict primarily affected Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan, and Kabul, Paktika, Kunar, Nangarhar, and Khost in Afghanistan. War events in Myanmar decreased by 9% following the 2025-26 general elections. Fighting remained concentrated in Sagaing Region, Magway Region, and Rakhine State. Regime forces on 8 March conducted airstrikes on a prisoner-of-war camp, killing 116 inmates and injuring 32 others. Taiwan recorded a 25% decline in Chinese military aircraft incursions across the median line of the Taiwan Strait and into its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
Seerist data for Q1 shows a small (2%) increase in verified war events in Ukraine, following a 10% rise the previous quarter. Russia saw a 7% rise in Q1, following a 12% decline the previous quarter. The figures reflect sustained frontline pressure and continued cross-border activity. Conflict intensity is likely to remain high, with no major battlefield breakthroughs and only limited territorial change. Short-term spikes are likely, driven by missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure and occasional attacks deeper inside Russia. Even if fighting slows, cross-border attacks and hybrid activity are likely to continue. War incidents beyond Ukraine-Russia, such as Ukraine-linked drone crashes near Kouvola in the Kymenlaakso region of Finland, highlight spillover risks.
Even if fighting slows, cross-border attacks and hybrid activity are likely to continue.
Ukraine Verified War Events, Q1 2026
EmotionsAI for Afghanistan showing spikes in anger and fear on 22 and 27 February, during the onset and peak of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border conflict
Emerging Trends War
Verified terrorism events in MENA more than tripled from Q4 to Q1, with roughly 80% concentrated in Israel and Lebanon, driven by renewed hostilities between Israel and Hizbullah following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. After largely refraining from attacks since the November 2024 ceasefire, Hizbullah reentered the conflict, prompting Israeli ground operations in Lebanon. Israel recorded 339 terrorism events in Q1 (up from 16 in Q4), all in March 2026, while 174 Hizbullah attacks targeted Israeli forces within Lebanon. Looking ahead, Israeli operations to establish a buffer zone are likely to expand, with the conflict entering a more sustained phase of attrition. Hizbullah provides a secondary front to divert Israeli resources, but its long-range capabilities are likely to continue degrading.
Israel verified terrorism events perpetrated by Hizbullah, Q1 2026
Looking ahead, Israeli operations to establish a buffer zone are likely to expand.
Verified terrorism events in the Americas fell 20% in Q1 2026 over Q4 2025. However, since the outbreak of the Iran war on 28 February, the US has faced elevated domestic terrorism risks, particularly from lone-wolf actors sympathetic to Iran, as evidenced by a shooting in Austin (Texas) and a vehicle attack on a synagogue in Michigan state. Terrorism in the Americas region was concentrated in Colombia, with 92% of the region’s terrorism events verified in areas with active FARC dissident and National Liberation Army (ELN) presence. Attacks frequently targeted security forces, including military personnel and police stations. In Chile, arson attacks linked to Mapuche ethnic militants declined by 80% in Q1.
Terrorism in the Americas region was concentrated in Colombia.
Americas verified terrorism events, Q1 2026
Terrorism events in Africa rose by around 3% in Q1 2026 compared with Q4 2025, driven primarily by a twofold rise in Somalia and an approximately 45% increase in Nigeria. In Somalia, al-Shabaab escalated attacks and expanded its control in south-central regions amid disputes and weakened security coordination between the federal government in Mogadishu and regional authorities. Meanwhile in Nigeria, Islamist militant groups ISWAP, Boko Haram (JAS), and Lakurawa intensified their activity and conducted several mass-casualty attacks due to increased coordination, the onset of the dry season, and Ramadan. These rises were offset by declines in countries such as Burkina Faso and Cameroon. Looking ahead, terrorism events are likely to remain elevated in Q2 2026 due to continued militant expansion and increasing operational sophistication.
Terrorism events are likely to remain elevated in Q2 2026 due to continued militant expansion and increasing operational sophistication.
Somalia verified terrorism events, Q4 2025 – Q1 2026
Verified terrorism events in APAC rose by 58% from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, with incidents reported in Pakistan, Thailand, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Afghanistan. Pakistan recorded the highest number, with a 46% spike concentrated in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, driven by ethnic militants and Islamist extremists targeting mainly military and law enforcement. An Islamic State (IS) suicide bombing at a Shia mosque in Islamabad on 6 February killed at least 31 people and injured hundreds more, while an IS attack on a Chinese-run restaurant in Afghanistan on 19 January killed at least seven. The outlook remains shaped by transnational Islamist extremist groups and localized insurgencies. Although high-impact capabilities are limited, militant intent remains high, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where actors retain significant capacity to escalate violence.
Pakistan Verified Terrorism Events, Q1 2026
The outlook remains shaped by transnational Islamist extremist groups and localized insurgencies.
Verified Terrorism Events by Sector in Pakistan
Retail: 3 Education: 2 Mining: 2 Road: 2 Construction: 1
Europe recorded eight terrorism incidents in Q1 2026, all in March, a rise on previous quarters. These largely involved improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and occurred in the aftermath of US-Israeli strikes against Iran. Incidents included an IED outside a commercial building in Paris, reportedly with Iran links, and a disrupted anarchist plot in Rome, where two people were killed assembling explosives intended for police and a defense contractor. In Belgium and the Netherlands, incidents targeted Jewish community sites. A newly formed group, Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI), claimed responsibility for some attacks, but this remains unconfirmed. Explosions in Amsterdam’s business district and near the US embassy in Oslo highlight risks to commercial and diplomatic targets. Iran-related tensions are likely to drive retaliatory or proxy attacks, with diplomatic, defense, and religious sites the most likely targets.
Iran-related tensions are likely to drive retaliatory or proxy attacks.
Western Europe Verified Terrorism Events, Q1 2026
Emerging Trends Terrorism
US/Israeli strikes on Iran trigger wider conflict
Israel and the US on 28 February carried out coordinated airstrikes on Iran after weeks of military buildup, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The continuing offensive prompted retaliatory attacks by Iran and allied groups on targets in Israel, Iraq and the Gulf, while Israel intensified operations in Lebanon. Seerist verified more than 3,300 war events across the Middle East between 28 February and 31 March, including more than 700 in Iran.
Lebanese Hizbullah joined the war on 1 March in response to Khamenei’s killing, targeting Israeli territory for the first time since the November 2024 ceasefire. Since then, Seerist has verified 339 Hizbullah attacks targeting Israeli territory and 170 attacks on Israeli soldiers in Lebanon. Israel has carried out extensive air and ground operations in Lebanon, where we recorded more than 1,700 war events.
Verified War events in the Middle East region, 28 Feb – 31 Mar 2026
Verified War events in Israel by Hizbullah, 28 Feb – 31 Mar 2026
Verified War events in Lebanon, 28 Feb – 31 Mar 2026
Iraq is a secondary theatre for the war. Iran-backed paramilitary groups have targeted military, diplomatic, and civilian assets in Iraq; US and Israeli security forces have targeted dozens of sites in Nineveh, Anbar, Muthanna, Babil, and Diyala provinces to disrupt these groups. Seerist verified more than 230 war events in Iraq between 28 February and 31 March. Iran has sought to drive up the wider economic costs of the war by targeting oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf, hoping to incentivize regional governments to support a ceasefire. Iran struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery (2 March), Bahrain’s Sitra refinery (9 March) and the Ras Laffan LNG hub in Qatar (18 March). Other drone and missile strikes have struck industrial and civilian targets: we recorded 297 war events in the Gulf region, 96 of which caused damage. Iran also prohibited vessels from passing the Strait of Hormuz and attacked several merchant vessels, severely reducing maritime traffic through the strait and threatening global supply-chain disruption.
Verified maritime events, 28 Feb – 31 Mar 2026
Verified war events targeting oil and gas assets, 28 Feb – 31 Mar 2026
Prospects for a permanent end to the conflict remain unclear despite a ceasefire being agreed after the quarter ended: the gap between the US and Iranian positions suggests agreement will take some time, though the ceasefire is likely to be extended. However, the threat of a return to hostilities will persist, either to exert leverage in talks or after withdrawal from the talks.
The Russia-Ukraine war enters its fifth year
The Russia-Ukraine conflict entered its fifth year on 24 February 2022. Looking back over four years (and more than 90,000 verified war events), we outline four notable trends.
Verified war events have increased overall since war broke out, and especially since mid 2025. The war began with Russian forces advancing on several fronts in February-March 2022 before counteroffensives in late 2022 saw Ukraine recapture large amounts of territory. Since 2023, Russia has largely focused on attritional warfare in the Donbas, gaining small amounts of territory at high cost. Sustained escalation occurred in 2024–25 with Ukraine’s surprise incursions into Russia's Kursk and Belgorod regions.
A shift towards drone warfare has been the most significant shift. Artillery remains heavily used, broadly tracking frontline activity, while Russia has used extensive air and missile strikes against military and civilian targets. But drone use has been rising since the second year of the conflict. The frontline has become characterized by a 20-30km-wide ‘grey zone’ dominated by drones, with a ‘kill zone’ of 500m to 10km where mixed trenches and shelters limit movement.
Russia has intensified attacks on Ukrainian energy, rail, and – recently – water infrastructure, using missiles and drones, aiming to degrade capacity and morale. Strikes on power facilities were geographically widespread across Ukraine in 2025, and generally peak in autumn and winter as part of a coercive strategy to deny civilians heat and power during the coldest months.
Ukrainian strikes within Russia remain concentrated near border regions (Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk) but are extending deeper. Attacks on Russian infrastructure, including ports and oil refineries, are distributed across western Russia and the Volga region, highlighting Ukraine’s strategy to increase the economic costs of the war.
The conflict is likely to continue as a protracted war of attrition with potential for a ceasefire in the second half of 2026. However, there are many variables, not least oil prices.
1 Rising volume of events
2 Shift towards use of drones
3 Attacks against energy
4 Attacks move deeper into Russia
Outlook
Russia-Ukraine: Monthly Verified War events, Feb 2022 – Feb 2026
Russia
Ukraine
Russia-Ukraine: Verified War events by attack types, Feb 2022 – Feb 2026
Drones as a proportion of all verified war events
Drone
Artillery
Missile/airstrike
Others
Drones
Verified attacks on Ukrainian power sector, Jan 2025 – Mar 2026
Verified attacks on Russian power infrastructure, Jan 2025 – Mar 2026
Mexico: Surge in violence after cartel leader killed
Security in Mexico continued to deteriorate in Q1 2026, with a 5.1% rise in verified crime events compared with Q4 2025. Crime trends were dominated by reaction to the killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (alias 'El Mencho') on 22 February during a military operation. The killing triggered an intense but short-lived wave of retaliatory violence that affected 20 states, including more than 200 illegal roadblocks and several arson attacks. This led to a 34% spike in verified crime events in February compared with January, highlighting the CJNG’s extensive territorial reach. Retaliatory violence subsided in early March, with a 52.7% drop in crime events from the previous month.
Looking ahead, the CJNG’s fragmented structure and the absence of a clear successor to El Mencho will increase the likelihood of infighting and opportunistic encroachment by rival groups. This will fuel sporadic high-impact incidents, including targeted ambushes, short-notice roadblocks and clashes with security forces. Shootouts between rival CJNG cells or between criminals and security forces are likely to persist, sustaining risks for operators – particularly in Jalisco, Guanajuato and Michoacán. CJNG fragmentation and succession conflicts will also contribute to a broader reconfiguration of criminal alignments nationwide.
Verified crime events in Mexico on 22 Feb 2026
Verified crime events in and around Jalisco on 22 Feb 2026
Organized criminal groups (OCGs) will remain the most prominent actor in Mexico’s security landscape. OCG-related violence in Q1 affected major urban centers, including Guadalajara (Jalisco) and Monterrey (Nuevo León); industrial corridors (Guanajuato, Bajío, Frontera norte); and port cities (Veracruz), where turf wars, shootouts, and targeted killings were frequent. The February arrest of the mayor of Tequila (Jalisco) over alleged links to the CJNG underscores high levels of OCG infiltration into local politics, a pervasive issue in Mexico. Turf wars among OCGs, score settling, and enforcement retaliation will sustain business exposure to shootings and illegal roadblocks (narcobloqueos) through Q2 2026.
Shootouts between rival CJNG cells or between criminals and security forces are likely to persist, sustaining risks for operators.
Jan 1
Jan 8
Jan 15
Jan 22
Jan 29
Feb 5
Feb 12
Feb 19
Feb 26
Mar 5
Mar 12
Mar 19
Mar 26
22 Feb: El Mencho killed
Venezuela 3 January
United States 12 March
On W 49 St, Norfolk, Virginia, a morning shooting at a university building left a Reserve Officers' Training Corps (ROTC) officer dead and two others injured; the attacker was killed by other students. The FBI was investigating the incident as an act of terrorism. 36.8874, -76.3053 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Canada 10 February
In Tumbler Ridge, British Columbia, a shooting at Tumbler Ridge Secondary School killed 10 people, including the suspect and two others at a nearby residence. At least 25 others sustained injuries. 55.1239, -121.0015 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Mexico 22 February
In Tapalpa, Jalisco, security forces carried out an operation against members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, killing its founding leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as ‘El Mencho’, and six others in a firefight; three security personnel were also injured. 19.9452, -103.7588 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Ecuador 6 March
Near San Martín, Sucumbíos province, Ecuadorian security forces conducted airstrikes reportedly targeting the Comandos de la Frontera criminal group as part of a joint military operation with US forces; some reports indicated a farm was destroyed. 0.6461, -77.5137 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Peru 7 March
In the Víctor Larco Herrera District of Trujillo, La Libertad department, an early morning grenade explosion at a nightclub left 53 people injured. -8.135, -79.0254 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
In Luweero, Central region, police used tear gas and gunfire to disperse National Unity Platform (NUP) supporters who blocked the Kampala-Gulu highway, as voters were allegedly blocked from voting; three people were killed. 0.84, 32.4947 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Uganda 15 January
In Niamey, Islamic State (IS) militants claimed an attack against Diori Hamani International Airport (NIM) and the adjacent air force base with gunfire, explosives, and drones; four soldiers were injured, 20 attackers were killed, and three aircraft were hit. 13.4871, 2.1816 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Niger 29 January
Nigeria 3 February
In Kaiama, Kwara, suspected armed militants attacked the Woro and Nuku communities, killing at least 200 people, abducting 38 and setting residences on fire. 9.7802; 4.1192 Location precision: City
Senegal 10 February
At the Cheikh Anta Diop University of Dakar (UCAD), police officers stormed the campus, fighting with students protesting at the delayed payment of their scholarship; one student was killed, and dozens were injured. 14.6941, -17.4713 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Nigeria 16 March
In Maiduguri, Borno, suspected Islamist militants carried out a suicide bombing attack at a post office, a local market, and near a university, killing at least 23 people and injuring 108 others. 11.8397; 13.1578 Location precision: City
Sudan 20 March
In El Daein, East Darfur, a drone attack hit Al-Daein Teaching Hospital, killing at least 64 people and injuring 89 others, including healthcare staff; the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) accused the army (SAF) of the attack, which the SAF denied. 11.4594, 26.1311 Location precision: City
Taiwan 29 March
On Ketagalan Boulevard, near the Presidential Office, in Zhongzheng District, Taipei City, about 80,000 people participated in a rally led by the opposition Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) against former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je’s recent corruption conviction. 25.0399, 121.5137 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Afghanistan 16 March
In Kabul City, Pakistani airstrikes targeted a drug rehabilitation hospital at about 21:00 (local time); the UN reported 143 deaths and 119 injurie. Dozens of shops and houses were also damaged. 334.527, 69.1849 Location precision: City
Myanmar 15 March
The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) reportedly attacked and captured Kutkai town, Shan State, from the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). 23.4575, 97.9316 Location precision: City
Pakistan 6 February
In Islamabad, at least 31 people were killed and 169 others injured in a suicide bombing at a Shia mosque in the Tarlai area; no group has claimed responsibility for the attack. 33.6434, 73.1538 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Japan 29 January
At a parking lot in Haneda International Airport (HND), Tokyo, unidentified attackers assaulted a man in the evening, escaping with JPY 190m (USD 1.2m). 35.5491, 139.7833 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Belgium 12 March
In Brussels, around 100,000 people marched from the Finance Tower towards the Midi station in a national demonstration against government austerity measures. 50.8364, 4.337 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Hungary 15 March
In Budapest, tens of thousands of people took part in a pro-government demonstration to mark Hungary's National Day, ahead of the 12 April general elections; thousands of people took part in a counter-demonstration called by opposition leader Peter Magyar. 47.5182, 19.0517 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Albania 24 January
Thousands of protesters gathered outside the prime minister's office building in Tirana to denounce the government of Prime Minister Edi Rama, using fireworks and throwing petrol bombs, injuring several police officers; police responded with tear gas and water cannon. 41.3218, 19.8207 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Germany 5 March
Students went on strike and organized demonstrations across Germany to protest against a new military service law, fearing the introduction of a compulsory military service; media reports said that around 50,000 people participated in 150 cities. Location precision: Country
Italy 20 March
On Via delle Capannelle in the Alessandria district of Rome, an anarchist couple were killed when an IED they were assembling apparently detonated prematurely; preliminary reports suggested that they were plotting attacks against a police station and defense contractor Leonardo. 41.8474, 12.5749 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Russia 25 March
At the Ust-Luga seaport, Leningrad region, a fire broke out at an oil terminal after a Ukrainian drone attack, according to Ukrainian sources; oil loadings were suspended. 59.6651, 28.297 Location precision: City
Iran 27 March
In Khondab County, Markazi Province, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) attacked the Arak Heavy Water Reactor Facility; no casualties or radiation danger were reported. 34.3705, 49.2412 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Saudi Arabia 2 March
In Ras Tanura, Eastern province, two Iranian drones reportedly targeted a Saudi Aramco oil refining facility; Saudi air defenses intercepted the drones, but falling debris caused a fire that was contained. Operations were temporarily halted. 26.691428, 50.099988 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Bahrain 1 March
At Salman Port, Manama, an Iranian missile targeted a naval facility, causing a fire; one person was killed, two others were seriously injured, and material damage was reported on a foreign ship undergoing maintenance in the area. 26.2004, 50.6155 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Click on an event below for more details.
Crime
In Caracas, at least seven explosions were heard at around 02:00 (local time) following US airstrikes near the Fort Tiuna area; reports indicate at least 83 deaths and 30 injuries related to the attack. US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in the attack. 10.447, -66.9219 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Kuwait 15 March
At the Ali Al Salem Air Base, west of Al-Jahra, Iranian forces targeted a shelter housing aircraft, destroying an aircraft belonging to the Italian Task Force Air (TFA); no casualties were reported. 29.3467, 46.5206 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Israel 21 March
Iranian airstrikes targeted the Dimona area. The Negev nuclear research center is located in the vicinity but was not damaged; local reports indicate that approximately 60 people were injured in the attack. 31.0694, 35.0334 Location precision: City
