Security Verified Event Report
Q1 2023
Executive Summary
Event Trends
Global Trends
Top 10
2023 & Beyond
Executive Summary Report
In Q1, Seerist’s intelligence team verified 20,107 events of political violence and organized crime around the world. In this quarterly report, we extract key insights from our data over this period and look at what to expect in Q2.
While this report focuses on data generated through the verification of events, Seerist’s AI features help clients get ahead of developing events, and we highlight these examples throughout our report.
Events to watch in 2023
Events to watch as we head into the second quarter of 2023
The top 10 countries for war, terrorism, crime and unrest events, including specific insights into recent developments in Nigeria, Italy, Israel, Pakistan, Russia, and Argentina.
Identification of emerging hotspots for unrest driven by the intersection of economic considerations – such as inflation and the cost of living – with other political and economic risk issues.
Key Insights Included In This Report
Event Trends
20,107
Hover to explore
Total Verified Events in Q1
Asia-Pacific experienced the most unrest events in Q1, driven by protest activity in India and Pakistan. However, South Africa, Israel, France, and Lebanon all moved into the Top 10 countries for unrest, reflecting notable protest movements in these countries.
Asia-Pacific
The war in Ukraine continues to drive the overall count of war events, placing Europe as the region with the greatest number of war events.
Ukraine
Africa again recorded the highest number of terrorism events, followed by Asia. However, there were notable declines in terrorism events in areas that been hotspots for attacks in Q4 2022, including Mozambique and Burkina Faso.
Africa
Event Category by Region
APAC
Africa
MENA
Americas
Europe + CIS
Unrest
Terrorism
War
Crime
12%
22%
30%
12%
24%
38%
8%
29%
2%
23%
4%
1%
10%
79%
6%
23%
38%
19%
6%
14%
MENA
2,663
Americas
3,709
Europe + CIS
7,348
APAC
3,841
Africa
2,544
Africa
Americas
APAC
Europe
+ CIS
MENA
2,544
3,709
3,841
7,348
2,663
20,107 Total Verified Events in Q1
Global Trends: Unrest
As noted in our previous report, there was a rise in protests related to inflation, high cost of living, and fuel prices both in Q3 and Q4 2022 across all regions. This trend continued in the first quarter of 2023, with some localized escalation.
As our partners at Control Risks note, although international food prices have now returned to pre-Ukraine-conflict levels, this has not necessarily translated into lower consumer prices. According to the World Bank, domestic food prices remain elevated in Africa, North America, Latin America, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia. This is especially acute in lower-income countries that are suffering overlapping crises of a pandemic, escalating external debt, and depreciating domestic currencies. Political reforms that touch on subsidies, pensions or other cost of living issues are likely to face resistance as these economic conditions persist.
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In Europe, France, Germany, the UK, Italy, and Portugal have been particularly affected by unrest. The French government’s controversial pension reforms plans have triggered strikes and protests since January. Railways, energy facilities, docks, oil refineries and other services have been significantly impacted during unrest events. In the UK, civil servants, healthcare workers, teachers, and train and bus drivers staged nationwide strikes and protests over wages and working conditions. Union strikes in several federal states in Germany have hit the transport sector as well as public sector services.
Europe
In MENA, protests against rampant inflation and government mismanagement of the economy persisted in major cities in Lebanon, Tunisia, Morocco and Syria. Food prices are likely to be a particularly sensitive issue during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which began on 22 March.
MENA
In the Americas, education, healthcare, and public workers have protested in Venezuela’s Capital District and other cities since January to demand improved salaries and working conditions. Disruptive anti-government protests were recorded in Bolivia (with roadblocks by education workers), Brazil (with several government buildings vandalized), and Suriname (where protesters broke into the Parliament building in response to proposed subsidy cuts).
Americas
In Asia and the Pacific almost a third of the recorded unrest was related to the high cost of living. Around 50,000 teachers in New Zealand went on strike and thousands protested nationwide in March after a deadlock in pay talks between the unions and the government. Sri Lanka had two major nationwide strikes on 1 and 15 March 2023 across various sectors, including healthcare and transport, causing operational disruption, particularly in Colombo. In Pakistan, localised protests over high inflation and prolonged electricity loadshedding continued onto Q1. In Bangladesh, several protests were held over high fuel and food prices, with mass rallies in the capital Dhaka demanding Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation.
APAC
In Africa, South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya experienced major unrest spikes. In Kenya, unrest incidents more than doubled in Q1 over Q4, driven primarily by opposition-led protests against the high cost of living and President William Ruto. The most widespread and disruptive protests occurred in at least nine counties across the country, including Kisumu and Migori in March, during which Seerist recorded a seven-point drop in the Pulse score, and a hotspot in Nairobi.
Africa
Several countries faced significant energy and capital shortages, often exacerbating underlying issues related to the cost of living. These shortages often trigger unrest that occasionally results in localized property damage to businesses and operational disruptions.
Nigeria had petrol and currency (Naira) shortages, affecting business operations and leading to protests and blockades of major roads such as the Lagos-Ibadan and the Benin-Ore-Lagos expressways. Several bank branches, ATMs and vehicles were vandalized and set on fire, particularly in the Lagos area.
Nigeria
In South Africa, power shortages and an increase in scheduled power outages caused disruption to business operations, leading to road blockades and protests targeting government offices. On 20 March 2023, Seerist recorded hotspots in Johannesburg and Cape Town, and a seven-point drop in the country’s pulse score during nationwide protests against the energy crisis.
South Africa
In Pakistan, energy shortages caused disruption to the aviation and road transport sectors. Several flights were grounded amid fuel shortages, and compressed natural gas stations in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces were forcibly closed to improve gas supply to domestic consumers. The government cut operating hours of retail businesses
Pakistan
In Lebanon, demonstrators have blocked major roads and vandalized several bank branches in Beirut and Tripoli to protest informal restrictions on cash withdrawals.
Lebanon
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Global Trends: Terrorism
Terrorism incidents continue to decline globally. Mozambique, which ranked among the top countries for terrorism events in 2022, recorded a 63% decrease in attacks compared with the previous quarter.
Terrorism incidents in Afghanistan also continued to decline – a 53% drop since last quarter – consistent with the trend since the Taliban’s takeover.
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
APAC
Africa
MENA
Americas
Europe + CIS
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Terrorism Incidents by Region
Shortages
Increased Attacks in Pakistan and Cameroon
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Q1 2023
Q4 2022
Islamist Militant Attacks
Africa
APAC
In Pakistan, attacks by Baloch separatists nearly doubled, while the overall number of terrorist attacks increased by 45% compared with last quarter.
In Cameroon, attacks by separatist militants in the North-West region of Cameroon, aiming to disrupt the 12 March Senate elections, drove a threefold increase in terrorist attacks.
We recorded a 50% quarterly increase in suicide bomb attacks. The highest number of casualties in a single suicide attack was recorded on 30 January, when a suicide bomber targeted a mosque inside a police compound in Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan, killing 100 and injuring 225.
Top Ten
Unrest
Terrorism
War
Crime
Terrorism in Pakistan has surged since a ceasefire between Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the military ended on 28 November 2022. Over 130 verified terrorism events were recorded in Q1, a 45% increase from Q1. While Balochistan province remained a militant hotspot, attacks featured most prominently in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. On 30 January, a mosque suicide bombing inside a police compound in the provincial capital of Peshawar killed 100 people. The heightened terrorism risk was captured by Seerist’s Pulse History and Trendline feature, which spiked downward following the attack. Small-scale attacks on law enforcement personnel and security installations persisted in Q1, while public spaces in urban areas were targets of large-scale attacks. Despite ongoing counter-terrorism operations, the HIGH terrorism risk rating will be maintained into Q2.
Terrorism
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1 of 2
4 of 4
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Over the past year more war events have occurred in Ukraine than any other country, but war events in Russia have notably increased over the past two quarters. Regions bordering Ukraine have been particularly affected, but Russian officials claimed in December 2022 that drone attacks destroyed aviation assets at military airfields in Saratov region, about 300 miles (480km) from the border. Ukraine claimed on 20 March that Russian Kalibr cruise missiles were destroyed while being shipped by rail to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Crimea. Similar attacks by Ukrainian forces will likely continue in the coming months. Drone strikes will likely target oil and ammunition depots in Crimea, as well in Russia’s Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions.
War
2 of 2
1 of 2
Heatmap of war incidents in Russia and along the Russia-Ukraine border - Q1 2023
Over the past two quarters, crime increased in Argentina with a spike in February. 25% of the incidents recorded in Q1 2023 were in Rosario (Santa Fe province), a city that has become a hotspot for organized crime violence. Shootouts between rival groups were common on public roads and near police stations. The escalation of violence coincided with the resignation of the Santa Fe province security minister at the beginning of February. A month later, President Alberto Fernandez announced an offensive against gangs operating in Rosario, increasing the number of federal police officers in the area. A high-risk security environment in the city will persist as the turf war for control of the area and drug trafficking routes intensify, increasing incidental risks to businesses and civilians.
Crime
2 of 2
1 of 2
Terrorism
War
Crime
Nigeria held Presidential and National Assembly elections on 25 February and gubernatorial and state assembly elections on 18 March (postponed from 11 March). As anticipated in our last report, a high number of security incidents - particularly unrest and crime - were recorded before, during and after of the polls, increasing by about 70% compared with the previous quarter. During this period, there were multiple cases of political party and electoral offices, polling stations and political leaders’ properties being vandalized and set on fire, and at least five political figures were assassinated. Hotspots for political violence were the Lagos, Rivers, Kano and Imo states, and several protests occurred in the capital Abuja.
While the number of events has declined since the conclusion of the polls, the threat of unrest and crime will persist as the elections’ results continue to be contested, with various parties alleging rigging or other irregularities. Operational disruption is likely with primarily incidental security threats to business personnel and assets.
Unrest
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Italy: Supporters of jailed anarchist leader Alfredo Cospito in February and March staged a series of protests over the terms of his detention, during which several bank branches, shops and cars were vandalized and set on fire in Milan and Turin. Suspected anarchists also set fire to vehicles of government officials, postal service vehicles, and school buses in Rome and Milan, and Italian diplomatic assets were vandalized in Germany, Greece, Spain, Switzerland and the US. Also during this period, anarchists claimed responsibility for planting an IED outside a courthouse in Pisa (Tuscany), cutting cables at a telecommunications repeater in Genoa (Liguria), and attaching incendiary devices to electricity pylons near Lucca (Tuscany). Further attacks will likely target government property in Italy and diplomatic assets abroad, with protests, acts of vandalism, and unsophisticated IEDs as anarchists’ preferred tactics.
Incidents perpetrated by Anarchists Q1 2023
Israel: Protests against a controversial proposal to reform the country's judicial system have persisted and gained momentum since January. Seerist raised Israel’s civil unrest risk rating to MEDIUM on 10 March, reflecting both the increasing intensity of protests and our assessment that unrest would continue. Protests in recent weeks have attracted thousands of people across the country, blocking major throughfares and causing traffic disruption.
On 26 March, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired Defence Minister Yoav Gallant for challenging the judicial reform plan. The move triggered widespread criticism within the government, sparking mass protests and a general strike by the Histadrut labor federation.
Netanyahu on 27 March delayed parliamentary discussions on the judicial reform legislation until the next parliamentary session starts in early May. Despite the delay in official discussions, public debate over the issue by politicians will continue to trigger demonstrations over the coming weeks.
Unrest
What to Watch in Q2 2023
Israel
South Africa
Sierra Leone
Moldova
Colombia
Pakistan
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delayed parliamentary discussion on a controversial reform bill until the next Knesset session in early May.
Unrest should initially ease from the level of activity in March but will continue in line with public debate over the reform and protests could surge again in May.
Israel
X
South Africa is facing an energy crisis, and on 22 February instituted scheduled power outages (load shedding), cutting power to households and businesses for up to 10 hours a day due to constant breakdowns in power facilities. The political opposition organized protests on 20 March and called for President Ramaphosa to resign.
Over 200 days of blackouts are expected throughout 2023, costing the country an estimated $51m per day. Businesses will face operational disruption and a spike in unrest and crime. A move to the next level of load shedding (stage 8) would likely trigger unrest.
South Africa
X
Sierra Leone will hold general elections on 24 June 2023. Incumbent president Julius Maada Bio will face the opposition All People’s Congress (APC) flagbearer Samura Kamara who was confirmed as the party’s candidate at its convention on 19-21 February.
Bio remains the favourite to secure re-election, with his Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) likely to perform strongly in the legislative polls following a 26 January Supreme Court decision to allow a shift to a proportional representation system for the legislative polls. The presidential election will be a two-horse race between the APC and the SLPP increasing the threat of ethno-regional and political tensions in the run-up to the elections, including localised armed clashes between party supporters and hired gangs, causing operational disruption to businesses, and posing incidental threats to personnel and assets. We do not expect a repeat of the widespread unrest which broke out in August 2022 despite ongoing popular frustration with widespread socioeconomic challenges.
Sierra Leone
X
In Moldova, Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita resigned on 10 February over issues related to Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, and a new government headed by Dorin Recean took office on 16 February. President Maia Sandu announced on 13 February that the government had thwarted a Russian plot to destabilise Moldova.
Economic difficulties, rising inflation, security threats stemming from the conflict in Ukraine, and Russian support for pro-Russian groups in Moldova will likely sustain anti-government protests in Q2 2023. Large anti-government protests are likely to take place on 1 May (Labour Day) and 9 May (Victory Day).
Moldova
X
In Colombia, artisanal (informal) miners launched a strike against the government in the Bajo Cauca region on 2 March, leading to roadblocks, arson, and vandalism targeting oil pipelines and other infrastructure. On 21 March, the government’s ceasefire with the Gulf Clan was suspended due to the criminal group’s alleged links to violent acts during the strike.
Crime in Antioquia will likely surge due to the government’s order to resume offensive operations against the Gulf Clan, and the risk of unrest will persist in environmentally or socially sensitive areas, disrupting business operations.
Colombia
X
In Pakistan, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) postponed provincial elections in Punjab from 30 April to 8 October.
The main opposition group Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is likely to organise protests to challenge the decision and push for early elections over the coming months. Disruptive and potentially violent clashes during anti-government rallies are even more likely amid the ongoing court case against PTI leader Imran Khan on corruption charges.
Pakistan
X
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37%
13%
13%
18%
19%
Unrest events in Israel,
Q1 2023
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While the number of Islamist militant attacks have continued to decline globally – as noted in our Q4 report – these groups retain the intent and capability to conduct attacks. In Afghanistan, while the number of terrorism attacks has declined, Islamic State-Khorasan has in recent months carried out a series of mass casualty and high-profile attacks, and will seek to increase such attacks in the coming months to undermine the Taliban’s authority as a security provider.
Turkey
Thailand
Ukraine
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on March 10 announced that presidential and parliamentary elections will take place on May 14. Opinion polls indicate that the opposition bloc could credibly defeat the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in both elections.
Social tensions and politically motivated unrest are likely to increase over the coming weeks – particularly directly ahead of elections – fueled but personal attacks and allegations of misconduct by all parties. While foreign businesses are unlikely to be the target of protest action, assets or personnel could experience some disruption or incidental harm.
Turkey
X
Thailand’s general election is scheduled for May 14. Voters will elect 500 members of the House of Representatives (lower house), who will then join the Senate (upper house) in voting for the next prime minister.
Widespread protests are unlikely ahead of the election. Control Risks’ current assessment is that the most likely outcome sees no single party winning a majority of house seats, forcing a coalition government. However, a strong performance by opposition party Pheu Thai in the election could invite military intervention later in 2023 or 2024, which would very likely spark anti-coup protests.
Thailand
X
A major leak of US intelligence documents on April 7 included details of US and NATO plans for supporting the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russian troops. While the veracity of some of these documents remains questionable, they include details of previously-secret details on weapons deliveries and troop movements.
Genuine peace talks, let alone a ceasefire, will remain very unlikely over the coming months as both sides focus on making military advances. War and security risks in Ukraine will remain extreme, as Russia is likely to continue attacking population centers and critical infrastructure facilities across the country.
Ukraine
X
Islamic State-Khorasan
45%
x3
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Pakistan
Somalia
Syria
Afghanistan
Others
Q1 2023
Q4 2022
Suicide Bomb Attacks
Suicide Bombings
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Africa
Americas
APAC
Europe + CIS
MENA
under an energy conservation plan. These measures triggered industrial strikes and protests in both urban and rural areas, with blockades of major roads and highways, causing localized disruption.
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