Hover over locations for more information.
Future Events: Q3 2024
24 July
Pro-Palestine protest at the United States Capitol, Washington, D.C.
A coalition of pro-Palestine groups will demonstrate outside the US Capitol in Washington, D.C. to demand that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested and charged with war crimes. The demonstration will coincide with Netanyahu’s address to Congress concerning the Israel-Hamas war and will likely be attended by thousands of people. It is also highly likely that activists will attempt to blockade transport routes near Capitol Hill. Heightened security can be expected during Netanyahu’s visit and clashes between police and protesters are highly likely.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Transportation, Unrest
28 July
Venezuela Presidential Election
The government retains a variety of tools to ensure its desired electoral outcome, including control of the election commission and courts, dominance of state-controlled media and the deployment of government-allied irregular militias to harass and threaten the opposition and its supporters.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Political
28 July
Anti-government protests in Puno department, Peru
Leaders of local indigenous groups and their supporters will protest across the Puno department to demand the dismissal of current President Dina Boluarte and the holding of new elections. Protest organisers have called for demonstrators to remain peaceful and calm.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Transportation, Political
18 August – 22 August
Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois
The Democratic National Convention (DNC) occurs once every four years. The main objectives of the meeting include nominating the party's candidate for president and vice-president and adopting a party platform. The 2024 DNC will be held at the United Center and McCormick Place in Chicago, Illinois. Around 5,000 delegates from across the United States are expected to attend, with an estimated 50,000 visitors to the city around the event. Security measures throughout the city will be heightened before and during the conference. Activist groups have already announced that they intend to hold large, disruptive rallies while the DNC is ongoing.
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18 August
Pro-Palestine March Against the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois
A coalition of activist groups is due to rally in Union Park, Chicago, Illinois, from 12:00 local time to protest the 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) and US government policy regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict. The primary demand of the protesters is for the Biden administration to impose an arms embargo on Israel. Activists are also due to voice several secondary demands regarding immigration, the LGBTQ+ community, union rights and alleged police brutality. The demonstration is likely to be attended by thousands of people. It is also likely that demonstrators will clash with police in the area, particularly if hostilities in the Gaza Strip are ongoing when the DNC begins.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Transportation, Unrest
10 September – 24 September
79th Session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA 79)
The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) will convene for its 79th session in September 2024. The assembly includes all 193 UN member states, with heads of state typically in attendance at the annual sessions. Security near the UN headquarters in New York City is strict, and during the UNGA sessions, road closures and transportation disruptions can be expected in the area. Activist groups are known to protest in the vicinity of the UN headquarters and in some member states while the assembly is in session.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Transportation, Unrest
26 July – 11 August
Summer Olympics
Expect heightened security measures around Olympic venues in Paris, Saint-Denis, Le Bourget, Nanterre, Versailles, Vaires-sur-Marne, Lille, Marseille, Bordeaux, Décines-Charpieu, Nantes, Nice and Saint-Étienne. Protest or other forms of unrest are possible. Large sporting events can be targets for terrorist attacks.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Transportation, Unrest, Terrorism
28 August – 8 September
2024 Summer Paralympics
Expect heightened security measures around Olympic venues in Paris, Saint-Denis, Le Bourget, Nanterre, Versailles, Vaires-sur-Marne, Lille, Marseille, Bordeaux, Décines-Charpieu, Nantes, Nice and Saint-Étienne. Protest or other forms of unrest are possible. Large sporting events can be targets for terrorist attacks.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Transportation, Unrest, Terrorism
1 September
Azerbaijan Parliamentary elections
Speaker of the National Assembly Sahiba Gafarova on 21 June announced that the country will hold parliamentary elections a few months earlier than scheduled. President Ilham Aliyev’s New Azerbaijan Party is highly likely to win in a landslide. The elections are unlikely to be held in a transparent manner, particularly following recent measures to restrict the registration of political parties and a crackdown on independent anti-government media. Small anti-government protests will likely take place in the capital Baku, but the security forces will use harsh measures to limit unrest. Disruption to businesses operating in the capital is likely to be minimal.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Political
10 September – 12 September
National public transport strike
Public transport workers are set to strike across the Netherlands over demands for changes in the retirement scheme. On 10 September, the first day of the strike, there will be work stoppages for urban transport including the Amsterdam GVB, Rotterdam RET and The Hagues' HTM. On 11 September, railway staff across the country will go on strike from 08:00 local time and on 12 September, all other regional transport workers will stop work. The events will likely cause significant travel disruptions for commuters, who may have to arrange alternative transportation methods or defer their travel plans. Spontaneous gatherings, though unlikely, cannot be ruled out outside government buildings and transportation hubs.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Transportation, Unrest
22 July – 26 July
40th Han Kuang Exercise
The 40th annual Han Kuang exercise (focusing on critical infrastructure protection and maritime/air defence and offence operations) will be conducted at several military sites around Taiwan, including Taipei Port (24 July) and Penghu Beach (25 July). Part of the military exercise includes live-firing drills at Kinmen, Matsu and Penghu, and air defence drills that involve a temporarily closure of airspace at Taoyuan International Airport (25 July, from 10:00 to 11:00 local time) and Taipei Songshan Airport (23 July, from 22:00 to 23:00 local time). During the exercise, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) may elevate its presence near the operational areas.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Conflict
17 September – 16 October
Sri Lanka Presidential Election
The Sri Lankan electoral commission announced that the presidential elections will be held at an undetermined time between 17 September and 16 October. Current president Ranil Wickremesinghe is eligible for re-election.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Political, Unrest
6 October – 11 October
2024 ASEAN Summit
The ASEAN Summit is held twice annually and brings together heads of state and other government officials from member countries to discuss policy issues and strategic decisions. Security at the location of the summit will be strict, but as in recent years, protest activity may occur near the summit and across member states in response to ASEAN leaders and policy decisions.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Transportation
10 September
Jordanian General Election
Voter turnout is expected to be low, as occurred during the 2022 general election. Islamist parties such as the Islamic Action Front are likely to capitalise on the current conflict between Israel and Hamas to attract voters.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Political
7 September
Algerian Presidential Election
The opposition movement has yet to present a candidate for the first-round of presidential elections. Algerian authorities have severely repressed internal dissent since 2019 and effectively dismantled any strong opposition group in the political and civil society scene. The Algerian government nonetheless continues to suffer from a lack of legitimacy and persistent popular discontent and presidential elections are likely to trigger renewed opposition.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Unrest, Political
26 September
Anniversary of the September Revolution
September Revolution Day is a national holiday commemorating the anniversary of the overthrow of Imam Muhammad Al-Badr and the creation of the Yemen Arab Republic. Gatherings have taken place annually. The Houthi militia group has also cited the anniversary in their attacks. In 2021, Houthi militants targeted a gathering celebrating the anniversary of the September Revolution with rocket fire, killing 12 and injuring 22.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Unrest, Conflict
1 October
Anniversary of the start of the Tishreen Protests
Anti-government protests are likely to commemorate the start of the 2019 October Revolution, also known as the Tishreen Protests. There is a risk of clashes with police and of attacks on protesters; previously unidentified gunmen have attacked protesters. Attacks could also target US forces in Iraq.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Unrest, Terrorism
6 October
Tunisia Presidential elections
President Kais Saied is likely to win a second term. Most opposition parties will likely boycott the vote, as seen during the 2022 constitutional referendum, the 2022 parliamentary election and the 2023 election for the council of regions. In addition to this, Saied has successfully compromised the independence of the High National Election Commission, and international observers are likely to have their access to the poll limited, as took place during the 2022 parliamentary election. Civil unrest is likely to rise in the lead up to the electoral period. The weakening of opposition parties, however, means that they are unlikely to mount a serious challenge to the electoral process.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Unrest
1 October
Independence Day
Ceremonial marches take place throughout the country, with a large civil-military parade in the capital Abuja. Transport and operational disruption is likely near these events. The threat of terrorist attacks is elevated, particularly in Abuja. Militants have called for and launched attacks in the past on Independence Day.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Terrorism, Transportation
9 October
Mozambique General elections
Incumbent President Filipe Nyusi is ineligible to run for another term, raising tensions within the ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) party over his succession.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Political
30 July
Demonstration demanding Bank of Ghana (BoG) governor resign in Accra
Members of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) Minority Caucus in Parliament have announced plans for a demonstration in the capital Accra, demanding the current governor of the Bank of Ghana (BoG), Dr Ernest Addison, resign from his position due to alleged mismanagement of public funds. The demonstration will reportedly commence at 08:00 (local time) at the Kwame Nkrumah Circle, before concluding around 18:00 at the Bank of Ghana HQ. Localised transport disruptions are likely.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Transportation
Security Incident Report
Q2 2024
In this quarterly report, we extract key trends from Seerist data to analyse Q2 global patterns and provide forecasts on what's to come in the months ahead.
Throughout May and June, Taiwan (China) experienced nationwide mass protests over controversial legislative reform bills put forth by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), which grew larger in size with every discussion and reading of the bill by the Legislative Yuan (legislature). The demonstrations, which became known as the "Bluebird Movement," were the largest Taiwan has seen in a decade. Notably, during the third and final reading of the bill on 28 May, about 70,000 people rallied outside the Legislative Yuan in Taipei City and protests in 13 other cities were verified by Seerist.
Unrest in Taiwan (China)
Maritime Security : The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
Political and Security Landscape in Argentina
Strikes at European Ports and Supply Chain Disruptions
Attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebel movement against international shipping and operators transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden persisted in Q2. In the Red Sea, the Houthis on 12 June conducted their first successful explosives-laden drone boat strike against a commercial vessel since they began attacking shipping activities in November 2023. Across the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Gulf of Aden, Seerist verified 29 assaults linked to the Houthis in Q2*, and according to Seerist's verified events data, the group's primary tactics for targeting commercial vessels were missile strikes and aerial drones. Although most long-range strikes will likely continue to fail to reach their targets, the groups' increased capabilities to directly hit vessels in Gulf of Aden waters prompted our strategic partner, Control Risks, to increase the maritime war risk rating in the gulf from low to MEDIUM in June.
*This does not include all reported sightings of drones, nearby missiles, suspicious approaches or naval interceptions of missiles/drones where the intended target has not been identified and/or for which there is little verifiable information.
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In Q3, the Houthis will continue to launch aerial assaults against vessels in the Gulf of Aden, though they will highly likely remain concentrated in the western part, towards the Bab el-Mandeb Strait rather than at the eastern exit to the Arabian Sea. Additionally, as per a Houthi announcement on 3 May, they will likely attempt to target Israel-bound vessels in the Mediterranean Sea, however the likelihood of interception is high, reducing the potential for successful strikes.
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Unrest in Taiwan (China)
Maritime Security: The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
Political and Security Landscape in Argentina
Strikes at European Ports and Supply Chain Disruptions
MEDIUM maritime war risk rating in the Gulf of Aden
In the first seven months of President Javier Milei's administration in Argentina, he has fast-tracked a set of economic measures and proposed reforms to tax, labour, and pension laws, driving an increase in social discontent and unrest across the country. Seerist verified over 150 unrest events across Argentina in Q2 2024, triple the number of incidents recorded in Q1. Our strategic partner, Control Risks, forecasts that although Milei's reforms and austerity measures have helped slow inflation and reduce government debt, thus far, removal of subsidies, social transfers and price controls will decrease Argentines’ purchasing power and likely raise unemployment and poverty, driving further protests and labour strikes in the near term.
Unrest in Taiwan (China)
Maritime Security : The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
Political and Security Landscape in Argentina
Strikes at European Ports and Supply Chain Disruptions
In Europe, strike-related unrest events at port terminals increased sixfold in Q2 over Q1. Most of these unrest events occurred in Germany, where dock workers launched several rounds of strike actions to demand higher wages, and in France where port workers launched nationwide strikes on 7 June against pension reforms. The strikes caused either major or total disruption to cargo and container operations at the affected ports. Seerist verified other unrest events at ports in Italy, Greece and Cyprus, among other countries, throughout Q2.
Analysis by our strategic partner, Control Risks, forecasts continued strike actions across European ports into Q3, driven by deteriorating economic conditions in Europe and government policy decisions. European ports form a critical node in carefully calibrated just-in-time global supply chains, and strikes in Europe are likely to increase costs and disruptions to these supply chains. Labour-related disruptions will further increase costs and complexity for operators who must identify new diversion options, accounting for existing Red Sea-linked supply chain disruption, and arrange for longer routes for onward goods transport.
Unrest in Taiwan (China)
Maritime Security: The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
Political and Security Landscape in Argentina
Strikes at European Ports and Supply Chain Disruptions
In-Depth Analysis
The Bluebird Movement protests account for about 77% of the unrest events in Taiwan recorded in Q2, however, the movement has not triggered an increase in security or operational risks to businesses. So far, the reforms' major impact remains on internal Taiwanese politics, despite allegations by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) that the opposition parties are acting as proxies for Beijing to “undermine” democracy and stability. Further protests remain likely in the coming weeks as the opposition-controlled legislature on 21 June voted against the Cabinet’s request to reconsider the bill, which prompted President Lai Ching-te’s decision on 24 June to take the case to the Taiwan Constitutional Court.
Unrest in Taiwan (China)
Maritime Security: The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
Political and Security Landscape in Argentina
For instance, in May, public school teachers launched protests in the Misiones province to demand higher salaries and garnered support from other trade and labour organisations. Seerist recorded 16 other planned protests by labour unions in Q2, demonstrating unions' ability to quickly mobilise and organise actions across sectors and locations. As the country continues to go through an economic recession, accumulated inflation and government austerity measures, political tensions and social grievances will likely persist throughout the remainder of 2024, sustaining Argentina’s MEDIUM civil unrest risk rating.
Strikes at European Ports and Supply Chain Disruptions
Q2 Elections Debrief
European Union
The June European Union (EU) parliamentary elections saw the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) maintain its position at the head of the European Parliament, while right-wing parties made significant gains at the expense of centrist and left-wing factions. The campaign period was marked by environmental and agricultural protests across the EU, including blockades across major roads and highways in Poland and southern France. The month prior to the EU elections saw elevated levels of unrest related to the Israel-Hamas conflict, including several incidents that targeted EU figures and assets in Portugal, Belgium and the Netherlands. Notably, demonstrations against the far-right spiked in France and Belgium during and after the polls, a trend that will likely continue into Q3.
France
President Emmanuel Macron called snap legislative elections in France following gains by the right-wing National Rally (RN) party in the EU parliamentary elections. French urban centres saw violent demonstrations against the RN as well as several violent attacks against parliamentary candidates and supporters during the election period. The two-round legislative elections resulted in unexpected gains for the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) and the RN securing a record number of parliamentary seats, which is likely to embolden far-right militant violence in the coming months. Civil unrest risks are likely to persist in Q3 as France grapples with a hung parliament and hosts the Olympic Games.
Mexico
In Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) won the June presidential elections, which aligned with our most likely scenario for the election outcome. Under the new administration, Mexico's security environment will remain fraught with challenges. Organised criminal groups (OCGs) have consolidated large networks of criminal governance throughout the country, as reflected during the election cycle in Q2, in which 7% of Seerist's verified crime events in Mexico were attacks against public officials, electoral candidates and other government assets. The majority of recorded incidents occurred at state and municipal levels, highlighting OCG influence in local elections and reinforcing our forecast for political violence during the electoral period. Under Sheinbaum's administration, businesses will remain vulnerable to OCG activities and crime risks including cargo theft, fuel theft, financial blackmail and incidental exposure to violent incidents.
India
In June, India concluded the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) re-elected for his third term in office, albeit with the support of the pre-poll National Democratic Alliance (NDA). As forecasted by our strategic partner, Control Risks, the Indian elections were relatively calm, with sporadic incidents of poll violence mostly contained to West Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Manipur states. Following the elections, the political environment in India will likely remain stable, and protests discrediting the government that were pervasive prior to the polls are likely to largely subside. However, protests about other political issues are likely to continue, including opposition demonstrations over the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal in March, the alleged misuse of investigative agencies and farmers' protests over agricultural policies.
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Seerist’s Intelligence Team verified more than 28,200 war, terrorism, unrest and organised crime events globally in Q2 2024, representing a 7% increase over Q1.
Executive Summary
War
In Q2, the Russia-Ukraine war remained the epicenter of war events globally, but our verified events data shows a notable shift in the conflict landscape, with incidents having decreased in Ukraine and increased by almost 44% in Russia as Ukrainian forces ramped up artillery and drone attacks, mainly in Russia’s Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions.
Additionally, war events in Lebanon increased by 97% in Q2 over Q1 as Israel stepped up retaliatory strikes against Lebanese Shia movement Hizbullah cells in southern Lebanon. The 94% increase in war events recorded in the Americas region was mainly due to the resumption of hostilities and security operations against leftist rebel groups in Colombia after the suspension of ceasefire agreements signed in 2023.
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Security Threats to the 2024 Olympic Games
The 2024 Olympic Games will be held in Paris, France, from 26 July to 11 August, with the Paralympic Games taking place shortly after from 28 August to 8 September. Throughout Q2 and in the run-up to the games in Q3, Seerist's intelligence team has been monitoring and verifying security threats to the events and operators throughout France.
Terrorism Terrorism is the main security threat to the Summer Olympics and Paralympic Games in Paris. Islamist extremist groups continue to retain high intent to inspire and direct attacks against international sporting events. However, robust counterterrorism capabilities and heightened security measures at event venues are likely to mitigate complex, high-impact attacks. Individuals or small groups are more likely to carry out small-scale or opportunistic attacks targeting public spaces and soft targets such as shopping areas and mass transit systems during the Olympics period.
Unrest Threats of civil unrest by labour and trade unions as well as local community groups will remain elevated during the Olympics due to the potential for strike actions and solidarity protests to cause widespread disruption. While the government will likely continue to attempt to negotiate with unions and prevent strikes from disrupting the games, travel or other services across the country, their ability to reach an agreement may be affected by changes in leadership and shifting government priorities following snap legislative elections held in early July.
Several sectors, including public transport, law enforcement and healthcare, have already been impacted by strikes in Q2 and early Q3 with workers seeking compensation for the increased operational costs of hosting the Olympics. Future actions are likely to be heavily policed with officers liable to use non-lethal force to control or disperse crowds. This could lead to violent confrontations between police and protesters and pose incidental risks to nearby businesses.
Sabotage and Disinformation Pro-Russia actors are also likely to capitalise on the media attention surrounding France and the Olympics to engage in targeted sabotage and disinformation activities that are intended to drive social discontent and could develop into protests or widespread unrest. Those efforts may include spreading or amplifying claims of police brutality, highlighting perceived negative impacts of the games or using phishing schemes to sell fake tickets to Olympic events. Businesses and business personnel are unlikely targets of pro-Russia acts of sabotage and disinformation, however, these campaigns will likely contribute to protest action in the next two months.
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Related to the Legislative Reform Bills
Heatmap of Verified Strike (Unrest) Events at German Ports in Q2 2024
Hover over red areas for more information.
FUTURE EVENT
War
Unrest
Terrorism
Unrest
In Europe, verified unrest events by labour and trade unions declined by 72% in Q2, although blockades by farmer organisations protesting agriculture and environmental policies continued to cause operational disruptions across the region. Unrest by environmental activists such as protests and blockades increased by 32%, mainly in Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK.
In the MENA region, verified unrest events increased by 26% in Q2 over Q1, notably in Morocco where we recorded a high number of pro-Palestine protests in several cities. In Syria and Iraq, protests continued over service delivery, economic opportunities and against religious sectarian groups. The quarterly increase in unrest events in the Americas region was also driven by a high number of pro-Palestine protests at university campuses and in city centres across the US and Canada, a trend that persisted from Q1, while the increase recorded in the APAC region was mainly resulted from elections-related protests in India.
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Terrorism
Terrorism
In Q2, verified terrorism events continued to increase in Africa, notably doubling in Burkina Faso where over 1,100 casualties were recorded in attacks in April through June. In Cameroon, attacks increased by 87% as Anglophone separatist militants stepped up their attacks in the Northwest and Southwest regions and in Nigeria terrorism attacks increased by 50%, driven by Islamist militant activities in Borno state, including three coordinated suicide bombings on 29 June that killed over 30 people. In Mozambique - a regional hotspot for terrorism events, specifically in the Cabo Delgado region - attacks by al-Sunnah Islamist militants declined in May and June, resulting in a decline in total verified terrorism events compared to last quarter. While the drop in activity by al-Sunnah in May was likely due to militants pooling their resources towards a large-scale assault on the town of Macomia on 10 May, the slower pace of activity in June was likely due to increased military operations and a failed militant attack against a Rwandan forces’ position in Mbau on 29 May.
Terrorism events in the Americas region were driven up exclusively by incidents in Colombia, which experienced a 97% quarterly increase in attacks by Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels who targeted security forces using tactics (attack types) such as explosive-laden drones and car bombs, which are likely to persist in Q3.
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Q2 Verified Terrorism Events
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Colombia
In Q2, Burkina Fast witnessed an increase in attacks by Islamist militants, particularly in the Sahel, Nord and Boucle du Mouhoun regions.
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In Q2, Seerist recorded more attacks in Colombia's Cauca and Valle del Cauca provinces, around Cali town (accounting for 68% of the country's total verified terrorism events).
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Environmental Unrest
Conflict Flashpoints Across the Globe
Far Right Extremism
Overview
Global Terrorism
Global Unrest
Regional Hostilities
Executive Summary
Future Events: Q3 2024
Security Threats to the 2024 Olympic Games
Q2 Elections Debrief
In-Depth Analysis
Unrest in Taiwan (China)
Maritime Security: The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
Political and Security Landscape in Argentina
Strikes at European Ports and Supply Chain Disruptions
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24 July: Pro-Palestine protest at the United States Capitol, Washington, D.C.
A coalition of pro-Palestine groups will demonstrate outside the US Capitol in Washington, D.C. to demand that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested and charged with war crimes. The demonstration will coincide with Netanyahu’s address to Congress concerning the Israel-Hamas war and will likely be attended by thousands of people. It is also highly likely that activists will attempt to blockade transport routes near Capitol Hill. Heightened security can be expected during Netanyahu’s visit and clashes between police and protesters are highly likely.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Transportation, Unrest
28 July: Venezuela Presidential Election
The government retains a variety of tools to ensure its desired electoral outcome, including control of the election commission and courts, dominance of state-controlled media and the deployment of government-allied irregular militias to harass and threaten the opposition and its supporters.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Political
28 July: Anti-government protests in Puno department, Peru
Leaders of local indigenous groups and their supporters will protest across the Puno department to demand the dismissal of current President Dina Boluarte and the holding of new elections. Protest organisers have called for demonstrators to remain peaceful and calm.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Transportation, Political
18 August – 22 August: Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois
The Democratic National Convention (DNC) occurs once every four years. The main objectives of the meeting include nominating the party's candidate for president and vice-president and adopting a party platform. The 2024 DNC will be held at the United Center and McCormick Place in Chicago, Illinois. Around 5,000 delegates from across the United States are expected to attend, with an estimated 50,000 visitors to the city around the event. Security measures throughout the city will be heightened before and during the conference. Activist groups have already announced that they intend to hold large, disruptive rallies while the DNC is ongoing. Pro-Palestine activists, environmentalists, and far-right groups are particularly likely to engage in protests and direct actions during the event and may seek to directly target delegates or other participants in the conference. While security perimeters and street closures around the event have not yet been finalized and announced, activist groups have already expressed frustration that officials have only issued protest permits for areas far from the DNC venue. Clashes between police and demonstrators are highly likely in the area surrounding the DNC.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Transportation, Unrest, Political
18 August: Pro-Palestine March Against the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois
A coalition of activist groups is due to rally in Union Park, Chicago, Illinois, from 12:00 local time to protest the 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) and US government policy regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict. The primary demand of the protesters is for the Biden administration to impose an arms embargo on Israel. Activists are also due to voice several secondary demands regarding immigration, the LGBTQ+ community, union rights and alleged police brutality. The demonstration is likely to be attended by thousands of people. It is also likely that demonstrators will clash with police in the area, particularly if hostilities in the Gaza Strip are ongoing when the DNC begins.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Unrest, Transportation
10 September – 24 September: 79th Session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA 79)
The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) will convene for its 79th session in September 2024. The assembly includes all 193 UN member states, with heads of state typically in attendance at the annual sessions. Security near the UN headquarters in New York City is strict, and during the UNGA sessions, road closures and transportation disruptions can be expected in the area. Activist groups are known to protest in the vicinity of the UN headquarters and in some member states while the assembly is in session.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Transportation, Unrest
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27 July: Right-wing march and counter-protest in London
Far-right activists and supporters of Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (alias Tommy Robinson) are due to rally outside the Royal Court of Justice in central London around noon before marching to Trafalgar Square. Previous demonstrations by similar groups in central London have seen protesters arrive intoxicated and clash with police. There will be heightened security in the area surrounding the rally; there remains a realistic possibility of isolated violent clashes and vandalism. Stand Up to Racism plan to hold a counter-protest at an unspecified nearby location to protest what they perceive as Islamophobic and anti-migrant rhetoric by Yaxley-Lennon supporters.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Unrest
26 July to 11 August: 2024 Summer Olympics
Expect heightened security measures around Olympic venues in Paris, Saint-Denis, Le Bourget, Nanterre, Versailles, Vaires-sur-Marne, Lille, Marseille, Bordeaux, Décines-Charpieu, Nantes, Nice and Saint-Étienne. Protest or other forms of unrest are possible. Large sporting events can be targets for terrorist attacks.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Transportation, Unrest, Terrorism
28 August – 8 September: 2024 Summer Paralympics
Expect heightened security measures around Olympic venues in Paris, Saint-Denis, Le Bourget, Nanterre, Versailles, Vaires-sur-Marne, Lille, Marseille, Bordeaux, Décines-Charpieu, Nantes, Nice and Saint-Étienne. Protest or other forms of unrest are possible. Large sporting events can be targets for terrorist attacks.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Transportation, Unrest, Terrorism
1 September: Azerbaijan Parliamentary elections
Speaker of the National Assembly Sahiba Gafarova on 21 June announced that the country will hold parliamentary elections a few months earlier than scheduled. President Ilham Aliyev’s New Azerbaijan Party is highly likely to win in a landslide. The elections are unlikely to be held in a transparent manner, particularly following recent measures to restrict the registration of political parties and a crackdown on independent anti-government media. Small anti-government protests will likely take place in the capital Baku, but the security forces will use harsh measures to limit unrest. Disruption to businesses operating in the capital is likely to be minimal.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Political
7 September: ITA Airways employees to strike
Fit-Cisl and Ugl Trasporto Aereo unions called a four-hour strike of the government-owned ITA Airways employees, from 13:00 to 17:00 local time, over recruitment and hiring criteria and the failure to provide part-time work, affecting flight, technical and cabin crew. Flight disruptions, including cancellations, are expected.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Transportation
10 September – 12 September: National public transport strike
Public transport workers are set to strike across the Netherlands over demands for changes in the retirement scheme. On 10 September, the first day of the strike, there will be work stoppages for urban transport including the Amsterdam GVB, Rotterdam RET and The Hagues' HTM. On 11 September, railway staff across the country will go on strike from 08:00 local time and on 12 September, all other regional transport workers will stop work. The events will likely cause significant travel disruptions for commuters, who may have to arrange alternative transportation methods or defer their travel plans. Spontaneous gatherings, though unlikely, cannot be ruled out outside government buildings and transportation hubs.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Transportation, Unrest
Americas
Europe
MENA
Asia
Africa
22 July – 26 July: 40th Han Kuang Exercise
The 40th annual Han Kuang exercise (focusing on critical infrastructure protection and maritime/air defence and offence operations) will be conducted at several military sites around Taiwan, including Taipei Port (24 July) and Penghu Beach (25 July). Part of the military exercise includes live-firing drills at Kinmen, Matsu and Penghu, and air defence drills that involve a temporarily closure of airspace at Taoyuan International Airport (25 July, from 10:00 to 11:00 local time) and Taipei Songshan Airport (23 July, from 22:00 to 23:00 local time). During the exercise, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) may elevate its presence near the operational areas.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Conflict
17 September – 16 October: Sri Lanka Presidential Election
The Sri Lankan electoral commission announced that the presidential elections will be held at an undetermined time between 17 September and 16 October. Current president Ranil Wickremesinghe is eligible for re-election.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Political, Unrest
6 October – 11 October: 2024 ASEAN Summit
The ASEAN Summit is held twice annually and brings together heads of state and other government officials from member countries to discuss policy issues and strategic decisions. Security at the location of the summit will be strict, but as in recent years, protest activity may occur near the summit and across member states in response to ASEAN leaders and policy decisions.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Transportation
Americas
Europe
MENA
Asia
Africa
10 September: Jordanian General Election
Voter turnout is expected to be low, as occurred during the 2022 general election. Islamist parties such as the Islamic Action Front are likely to capitalise on the current conflict between Israel and Hamas to attract voters.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Political
7 September: Algerian Presidential Election
The opposition movement has yet to present a candidate for the first-round of presidential elections. Algerian authorities have severely repressed internal dissent since 2019 and effectively dismantled any strong opposition group in the political and civil society scene. The Algerian government nonetheless continues to suffer from a lack of legitimacy and persistent popular discontent and presidential elections are likely to trigger renewed opposition.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Unrest, Political
26 September: Anniversary of the September Revolution
September Revolution Day is a national holiday commemorating the anniversary of the overthrow of Imam Muhammad Al-Badr and the creation of the Yemen Arab Republic. Gatherings commemorating the day take place annually. The Houthi rebel group has also cited the anniversary in their attacks. In 2021, Houthi militants targeted a gathering celebrating the anniversary of the September Revolution with rocket fire, killing 12 and injuring 22.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Unrest, Conflict
1 October: Anniversary of the start of the Tishreen Protests
Anti-government protests are likely to commemorate the start of the 2019 October Revolution, also known as the Tishreen Protests. There is a risk of clashes with police and of attacks on protesters; previously unidentified gunmen have attacked protesters. Attacks could also target US forces in Iraq.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Unrest, Terrorism
6 October: Tunisia Presidential elections
President Kais Saied is likely to win a second term. Most opposition parties will likely boycott the vote, as seen during the 2022 constitutional referendum, the 2022 parliamentary election and the 2023 election for the council of regions. In addition to this, Saied has successfully compromised the independence of the High National Election Commission, and international observers are likely to have their access to the poll limited, as took place during the 2022 parliamentary election. Civil unrest is likely to rise in the lead up to the electoral period. The weakening of opposition parties, however, means that they are unlikely to mount a serious challenge to the electoral process.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Unrest
Americas
Europe
MENA
Asia
Africa
30 July: Demonstration demanding Bank of Ghana (BoG) governor resign in Accra
Members of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) Minority Caucus in Parliament have announced plans for a demonstration in the capital Accra, demanding the current governor of the Bank of Ghana (BoG), Dr Ernest Addison, resign from his position due to alleged mismanagement of public funds. The demonstration will reportedly commence at 08:00 (local time) at the Kwame Nkrumah Circle, before concluding around 18:00 at the Bank of Ghana HQ. Localised transport disruptions are likely.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Transportation
1 October: Independence Day
Independence Day in Nigeria is a public holiday, during which ceremonial marches take place throughout the country, with a large civil-military parade in the capital Abuja. Transport and operational disruptions are likely near these events. Government offices, schools and most businesses will be closed during the holiday. The threat of terrorist attacks is elevated, particularly in Abuja, as militants have called for and launched attacks in the past on this day.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Terrorism, Transportation
9 October: Mozambique General elections
Incumbent President Filipe Nyusi is ineligible to run for another term, raising tensions within the ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) party over his succession.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Political
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FUTURE EVENT
Anti-Olympics protest, Marseille Local community groups and activists will protest against the Olympic Games and the arrival of the Olympic Torch in the Réformés district of Marseille at 14:00 local time. Protesters are organising using social media with the hashtag “#SabotonsLaFlamme,” which translates to “let’s sabotage the flame.” Security will likely be heightened in the area amid the official proceedings for the Olympic Torch Relay on 8 May. Authorities may intervene to disperse protesters and bystanders if demonstrators attempt to disrupt the Olympic proceedings. Transportation disruptions are likely in the area surrounding the protest.
Verified Event
8 MAY
At the Porte d'Aix, Marseille, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, around 1000 locals rallied to protest the social and environmental impact of the Olympics as the Olympic Torch arrived in the city.
Timeline showing a sample of Seerist’s Future and Verified Events in France
Verified Event
10 MAY
In Toulon, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, 94% of public bus drivers went on strike as the Olympic torch passed through the area, calling for improved pay and working conditions.
FUTURE EVENT
Bus driver strike, Toulon Unionised bus drivers are due to strike during the passage of the Olympic Torch through Toulon, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, to protest a variety of issues including poor working conditions, mental health concerns, and long hours. Thousands of spectators are expected to watch the passage of the Olympic Torch through Toulon. The strike is likely to cause serious transportation disruption and delays if it is widely adhered to by union members.
Verified Event
16 MAY
Nationwide, unionised firefighters went on strike to demand improved resources and increased compensation for working during the Olympics.
FUTURE EVENT
Nationwide firefighters strike Unionised firefighters across France are due to strike for improved pay and working conditions. Unions are also demanding increased social and financial support for firefighters due to work at the 2024 Olympic Games. Adherence to the strike is likely to be high and cause delays to the provision of emergency services.
Verified Event
17 MAY
In central Toulouse, Occitania, around 50 environmentalists rallied to protest a steel manufacturers' sponsorship of the Olympics during the arrival of the Olympic Flame in the city.
FUTURE EVENT
Environmentalist protest, Toulouse Local community groups and activists will protest against the Olympic Games and the arrival of the Olympic Torch in the Réformés district of Marseille at 14:00 local time. Protesters are organising using social media with the hashtag “#SabotonsLaFlamme,” which translates to “let’s sabotage the flame.” Security will likely be heightened in the area amid the official proceedings for the Olympic Torch Relay on 8 May. Authorities may intervene to disperse protesters and bystanders if demonstrators attempt to disrupt the Olympic proceedings. Transportation disruptions are likely in the area surrounding the protest.
Verified Event
21 MAY
In the Île-de-France department, unionised rail workers went on strike to demand improved bonuses during the Olympics, causing severe disruptions to rail services.
FUTURE EVENT
Rail strike, Paris and Île-de-France Members of SUD-rail union in the Île-de-France region are due to strike to demand improved benefits for rail workers during the 2024 Olympic Games. This strike is likely to disrupt rail services in Paris and the surrounding area.
Verified Event
21 MAY
At Saint-Lazare train station, Paris, dozens of striking train drivers rallied in support of ongoing industrial action for improved pay and bonuses for staff working during the Paris Olympics.
Verified Event
21 MAY
At the Place du Trocadéro in Paris, dozens of striking train drivers rallied in support of ongoing industrial action for improved pay and bonuses for staff working during the Paris Olympics.
Verified Event
26 MAY
At Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (NCE), Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, unionised security workers went on strike and protested to demand improved salaries.
FUTURE EVENT
Security workers protest and strike, Nice Côte d'Azur Airport Security workers at Nice Côte d’Azur Airport (NCE) are due to strike for improved pay and an Olympics bonus. The strike is scheduled to take place during the Monaco Grand Prix and Cannes Film Festival, and is likely to cause minor delays. Striking workers are also due to stage a protest at Gate D3 in Terminal 2.
Verified Event
21-26 June
In Strasbourg, Grand Est, unionised public transport workers went on strike to demand improved working conditions, causing disruption to public transport routes during the passage of the Olympic flame through the city.
FUTURE EVENT
Public transport worker strike, Strasbourg CTS, CGT, and SUD public transport drivers unions in Strasbourg are due to strike for five days to demand improved working condition and protest allegedly aggressive management practices. The strike is due to coincide with a music festival and the passage of the Olympic flame through Strasbourg. The strike is highly likely to cause significant delays and cancellations on public transport routes throughout the city.
18 August – 22 August
Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois
Pro-Palestine activists, environmentalists, and far-right groups are particularly likely to engage in protests and direct actions during the event and may seek to directly target delegates or other participants in the conference. While security perimeters and street closures around the event have not yet been finalized and announced, activist groups have already expressed frustration that officials have only issued protest permits for areas far from the DNC venue. Clashes between police and demonstrators are highly likely in the area surrounding the DNC.
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Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Transportation, Unrest, Political
27 July
Right-wing march and counter-protest in London
Far-right activists and supporters of Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (alias Tommy Robinson) are due to rally outside the Royal Court of Justice in central London around noon before marching to Trafalgar Square. Previous demonstrations by similar groups in central London have seen protesters arrive intoxicated and clash with police. There will be heightened security in the area surrounding the rally; there remains a realistic possibility of isolated violent clashes and vandalism. Stand Up to Racism plan to hold a counter-protest at an unspecified nearby location to protest what they perceive as Islamophobic and anti-migrant rhetoric by Yaxley-Lennon supporters.
Potential Severity Level: Medium
Impact Types: Unrest
7 September
ITA Airways employees to strike
Fit-Cisl and Ugl Trasporto Aereo unions called a four-hour strike of the government-owned ITA Airways employees, from 13:00 to 17:00 local time, over recruitment and hiring criteria and the failure to provide part-time work, affecting flight, technical and cabin crew. Flight disruptions, including cancellations, are expected.
Potential Severity Level: Low
Impact Types: Unrest, Transportation