Security Incident Report
Q2 2025
In this quarterly report, we extract key trends from Seerist data to analyse Q2 global patterns and provide forecasts on what's to come in the months ahead.
Executive Summary
JUMP TO SECTION
Unrest
War
Terrorism
India/Pakistan Conflict Following the Pahalgam Attack
What to Watch in Q3
Notable Q2 Events
Brazil Unrest and Crime Trends Ahead of the COP30 Summit
Seerist’s Intelligence Team verified more than 28,500 war, terrorism, unrest and organised crime events globally in Q2 2025.
MENA
All
Africa
APAC
Europe
Americas
Unrest incidents in Europe increased 7% quarter-on-quarter. Belgium, France and Spain saw notable rises. In Belgium, several protests in Brussels, Liège and Charleroi were related to government austerity policies and reform plans. The number of protests demanding a ceasefire in Gaza more than doubled in Q2. In France, both farmers and climate activists protested against a law prohibiting certain agrochemicals (for different reasons), while taxi drivers went on strike and held rallies in several cities against new health insurance pricing. In Spain, the rise in unrest was driven by opposition to overtourism, the housing crisis and support for Palestine. Georgia and Serbia both saw declines in political protests, though around 140,000 people protested in Belgrade on 28 June to demand early elections, clashing with security forces.
All
Europe
Unrest events in the Americas declined by 15% in Q2 2025 compared with Q1, with government-related protests and strikes down 21%. In the US, verified unrest dropped 24% quarter-on-quarter, though demonstrations against President Donald Trump’s administration continued. Protests against immigration policies led to clashes with security forces, vandalism and looting, notably in Los Angeles in early June. Pro-Palestinian protests also persisted, though only accounted for 9% of US unrest events in Q2. Unrest events in Panama nearly tripled, driven by protests and strikes over proposed changes to the social security law. Similar unrest occurred in Mexico and Colombia, where opposition to pension and social security reforms led to strikes and blockades that disrupted economic activities.
All
Americas
In the APAC region, the number of unrest events remained relatively consistent between Q1 and Q2, with a modest 4.6% increase in Q2. Protests in India spiked in late April following the 22 April terrorist attack in Pahalgam that led to a military escalation between India and Pakistan. In Mongolia, verified unrest events increased significantly due to weeks of protests that began on 14 May in Ulaanbaatar, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene after the president’s son and his son’s fiancée posted photos on social media displaying luxury items. Oyun-Erdene resigned on 3 June after losing a confidence vote in parliament. In contrast, South Korea saw a 30% decline in verified unrest events following the ousting of former president Yoon Suk-yeol by the Constitutional Court on 4 April.
All
APAC
April
Verified Unrest Events in India, Q2 2025
May
0
50
100
150
200
Unrest events in the Africa region increased by 11% from Q1 to Q2 2025, with notable rises in Kenya and Mauritania. The number of unrest events in Mauritania more than doubled in Q2 due to protests against the government over poor service delivery and demands for better working conditions, and to oppose the conflict in Gaza. Kenya recorded a 75% rise in unrest events driven largely by protests to demand justice after the death of a blogger in police custody, and by demonstrations to mark the 2024 anti-government protests and storming of parliament, when 60 people were killed in clashes with security forces. On the other hand, unrest in Congo (DRC) recorded an 85% drop as demonstrations against the M23 rebel group decreased. Protests in South Africa kept steady quarter-on-quarter.
All
Africa
Verified Unrest Events in Kenya
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
The MENA region saw a 13% quarterly rise in unrest events. Morocco saw the highest levels, with a quarterly increase of 80%. This was likely caused by the breakdown of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas: almost 98% of unrest events in Morocco were related to the conflict. Iran saw a 40% quarterly rise, with nearly all (96%) related to domestic grievances or labor disputes. Unrest in Jordan fell by 75% compared to Q1 after the banning of the Muslim Brotherhood on 23 April following the alleged thwarting of a domestic terrorism plot. Unrest also fell in Israel (by 38%), partly due to the banning of public gatherings in June after the exchange of attacks with Iran.
All
MENA
Unrest
executive summary
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India/Pakistan Conflict Following the Pahalgam Attack
in-depth analysis
A terrorist attack on 22 April killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, triggering a miliary escalation between India and Pakistan. The attack was reportedly carried out by a group linked to Pakistan-based militant organization Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), prompting India to accuse Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism—an allegation Pakistan denied.
Following the attack, the two sides downgraded bilateral ties by closing the border, expelling each other’s nationals, threatening to hold critical bilateral agreements in abeyance (including the Indus Waters Treaty), stopping trade ties and closing their respective airspaces to each other. We recorded a spike in unrest events in India on 23 April, the day after the attack, with 46% of the recorded protests condemning the violence.
Heatmap of verified War events in India and Pakistan, 1 Mar to 21 Apr 2025. No exchanges of fire were observed in India- and Pakistan-administered Kashmir prior to the Pahalgam attack.
Verified Unrest Events
Heatmap of verified War events in India and Pakistan, 22 Apr – 12 May 2025. Most recorded attacks were concentrated in India- and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The furthest attack from the LoC in Pakistan was the targeting of Karachi Port on 8 May. In India, the most distant attack from the LoC was on 10 May when a Pakistani missile struck an air force base in Bhuj, Gujarat.
NEXT SECTION
Between 24 April and 6 May, Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged fire and conducted intermittent artillery shelling along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border separating Indian- and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The conflict escalated sharply on 6-7 May, when India launched Operation Sindoor—'intelligence-based' airstrikes on nine locations in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Pakistan’s Punjab province. Pakistan claimed that 40 civilians were killed. The two sides exchanged heavy shelling, missile and drone attacks, with Pakistan on 10 May claiming to have targeted several Indian military bases.
The conflict concluded the same day with a ceasefire agreement with US intervention. No further war events were verified between the two countries from 11 May to the end of Q2 2025, and tourist sites in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir were reopened on 14 June with heightened security measures. However, relations remain strained, with key bilateral agreements still suspended, and the security environment will remain fragile.
Click the green area above to view the Verified Event.
Brazil Unrest and Crime Trends Ahead of the COP30 Summit
in-depth analysis
The 30th UN Conference of Parties (COP30) on climate change takes place in November in Belém (Pará state). The event approaches against a backdrop of a 17% rise in crime in Brazil from Q1 to Q2.
Iran and Israel: 12 Days of Conflict
in-depth analysis
Israel on 13 June launched a surprise attack against Iran, targeting air defenses, nuclear and military facilities, and senior military leaders, politicians and nuclear scientists with airstrikes, drones and ground forces. Attacks also struck symbolic targets such as state television, Evin prison, and select oil and gas infrastructure. The US on 22 June struck three Iranian nuclear sites, targeting the Fordow enrichment site with 12 GBU57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) “bunker buster” bombs; Natanz with two “bunker buster” bombs and cruise missiles; and Isfahan with cruise missiles.
Seerist verified 242 War events in Iran during the 12-days of conflict, with the highest number of attacks on the first day and the pace fairly steady afterwards. Airstrikes were the most common attack type, accounting for 75% of recorded attacks; military drones (20%) accounted for most of the rest. Several attacks targeted multiple sectors, but the military was the main target, followed by aviation and power (both nuclear plants and associated research centers).
13 June
Verified War Events in Iran, 13-24 June, by Country
Israel
14 June
15 June
16 June
17 June
43
18 June
United States
19 June
20 June
21 June
22 June
23 June
24 June
0
10
20
30
40
50
25
32
23
19
21
12
17
20
20
3
8
2
Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against Israel, though many of these were intercepted, including some by the Jordanian military in its airspace. Iran fired approximately 550 missiles and at least 1,000 drones. However, nearly all the attacks that were not intercepted were missiles, with only a few drones getting through, none of which caused casualties. Haifa was the most targeted area—the refinery there was struck twice—followed by Tel Aviv.
US President Donald Trump on 24 June announced a ceasefire between the US, Iran and Israel, following Iran’s calibrated strike on a US base in Qatar the previous day. The Iranian attack, which caused no significant damage or casualties, was reportedly preceded by forewarning and aimed at signaling de-escalation. Our most likely scenario for the region sees Iran and Israel mostly observe the ceasefire, bringing an end to extensive regional disruption. Yet, Israel retains intent and capability to conduct operations in Iran to prevent it from rebuilding significant nuclear or ballistic capabilities.
13 June
14 June
15 June
16 June
17 June
18 June
19 June
20 June
21 June
22 June
23 June
24 June
Non-intercepted Iranian Attacks on Israel,
12-24 June,
by Attack Type
Missile/Rocket
Drone
Mali
1 June
In Boulkessi, Mopti region, Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM) militants captured the military base, reportedly killing over 100 soldiers, injuring dozens of others, and kidnapping 22.
14.79779, -1.30325
Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
Sudan
20 May
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) claimed control of the whole Khartoum state, claiming no further presence of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
15.5974, 32.5356
Location precision: SState/Province
Kenya
25 June
In Nairobi, thousands of people demonstrated to mark the first anniversary of anti-government protests when 60 people were killed in clashes with security forces; police blocked major roads and fired teargas, injuring at least 107 people.
-1.2834674 36.823562
Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
Burkina Faso
21 May
In several villages in the Dori and Gorgadji communes, in the Sahel region, local sources said that soldiers in a convoy returning from Arbinda, and defense volunteers killed 105 civilians.
14.0328037, -0.5186938 Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
Ethiopia
17 April
In Gedeb, Amhara region, at least 100 people were reportedly killed in a suspected military drone strike that impacted near Gedeb Primary School; 24 others were injured.
10.60495602, 38.318261
Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
United States
1 June
Near Pearl Street Mall in Boulder, Colorado, a lone suspect attacked pro-Israel demonstrators using a "makeshift flamethrower" and an "incendiary device", injuring eight people; police arrested the suspect.
40.01831, -105.27868
Location precision: Asset/Building
In downtown Los Angeles, California, anti-ICE protesters vandalized and looted several stores in the Broadway area following peaceful protests during daylight hours against immigration enforcement raids; 14 people were arrested for looting.
34.043506, -118.254517 Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
Haiti
25 May
In Village de Dieu sector, Port-au-Prince, Ouest department, police carried out a kamikaze drone attack during a security operation against gangs in the area; reports indicate that at least 30 gang members were killed and over 100 injured.
18.53724, -72.35346 Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
Bolivia
11 June
In Llallagua, Potosí department, at least three police officers were killed in clashes between police and protesters blocking roads to demand that former president Evo Morales be allowed to run; vandalism and robbery incidents were also reported.
-18.421784, -66.585599 Location precision: City
Panama
21 June
In Changuinola, Bocas del Toro Province, unionized workers blocked entrances to the city and protested against reforms to the Social Security Fund (CSS); clashes with police were reported, and one officer was injured in a shooting.
9.45149, -82.48379 Location precision: City
Colombia
10 June
In the Meléndez neighborhood of Cali, Valle del Cauca department, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents detonated a car bomb outside a police station, injuring five people.
3.37921, -76.54489 Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
Cambodia
28 May
Near Chong Bok, a mountain pass in the tri-border area of Thailand, Cambodia and Laos, a Cambodian soldier was killed in an exchange of fire between Cambodian and Thai security forces; both sides subsequently agreed to a ceasefire.
14.343705, 105.202764
Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
Myanmar
12 May
In Depayin Township, Sagaing Region, a military regime airstrike reportedly struck a school in Oehteindwin village, killing at least 24 students and injuring 100 others.
22.682215, 95.319400
Location precision: City
Mongolia
26 May
In Ulaanbaatar, protesters rallied at Sukhbaatar Square for the 13th consecutive day to demand the resignation of the Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene over his family's alleged lavish displays of wealth.
47.918782, 106.917645
Location precision: City
Pakistan
7 May
Across Pakistan, 40 people were killed and 121 others were injured in strikes carried out by the Indian Armed forces on the night of 6-7 May, according to Pakistani sources.
30.3753, 69.3451
Location precision: Country
India
22 April
In Baisaran Valley, Pahalgam, Anantnag district, Jammu and Kashmir, militants opened fire on tourists, killing at least 26 people and injuring 12 others. The Resistance Front group, an alleged Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) proxy, claimed the attack.
34.0046, 75.3320
Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
South Korea
31 May
In Seoul, at least 15 people sustained minor injuries after an individual set light to a metro carriage traveling on Line 5 between Yeouinaru and Mapo stations; subway services were disrupted.
37.539806, 126.946182
Location precision: Asset/Building
Spain
21 May
In Pozuelo, Madrid, an unidentified gunman shot dead former Ukrainian politician Andriy Portnov outside a school; Portnov was a deputy chief of staff to Ukraine’s former president Viktor Yanukovych, who fled to Russia in 2014.
40.443506, -3.782258
Location precision: Asset/Building
Germany
18 May
Outside a bar on Mindener Straße, Bielefeld, North Rhine-Westphalia, a Syrian man stabbed and injured five people at around 04.20 (local time); the suspect was arrested on a warrant based on Islamist terrorism allegations.
52.02671, 8.528953
Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
United Kingdom
20 June
At Royal Air Force (RAF) Brize Norton, Oxfordshire, pro-Palestine activists broke into the airbase and vandalized two military aircraft with spray paint and crowbars.
51.750535, -1.579928
Location precision: Asset/Building
Greece
11 April
Outside the Hellenic Train office, Athens, a suspected improvised explosive device (IED) detonated after a bomb threat was called into authorities 40 minutes prior; no injuries were reported. The Revolutionary Class Self-Defense group claimed the attack.
37.96591, 23.72922
Location precision: Asset/Building
Serbia
28 June
Near the National Assembly building in Belgrade, around 140,000 people demonstrated to demand the dismissal of President Aleksandar Vucic and call for early elections; 48 police officers were injured in clashes and 77 people were arrested.
44.81089, 20.46539
Location precision: Asset/Building
Ukraine
24 June
In Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk region, Russian missile strikes left 21 people dead and at least 340 others injured, according to Ukrainian sources; a moving train, schools, a music hall, a sports venue, and various hospitals and clinics were damaged.
48.468333, 35.041667
Location precision: City
Yemen
6 May
In Sanaa, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) targeted Sanaa International Airport (SAH) with airstrikes; according to Israeli military sources the airport was completely disabled, with damage estimated over $500m. 15.473772, 44.224817
Location precision: Asset/Building
Libya
12 May
In Tripoli, armed clashes between the 444th Brigade and the Stability Support Authority (SSA) were reported following the assassination of SSA commander Abdul Ghani al-Kikli; six people were injured. 32.885141266, 13.188088402
Location precision: City
Iran
22 June
In Fordow, Qom province, the US military carried out airstrikes on the nuclear facility, reportedly causing damage. 34.88315184, 50.99556501
Location precision: Asset/Building
Israel
4 May
Near Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV), Tel Aviv, a missile reportedly launched from Yemen landed near the airport, injuring at least six people. 32.00050427, 34.87052322
Location precision: Asset/Building
Syria
22 June
In the Doueila neighborhood of Damascus, a suicide bomber opened fire at a Christian church before detonating himself, leaving at least 20 people dead and wounded. 33.5034, 36.3201
Location precision: Asset/Building
Qatar
22 June
Near Doha, an Iranian missile attack targeted the Al Udeid US military base; the missile was intercepted according to the Qatari Ministry of Defense, causing no casualties. 25.1188, 51.3188
Location precision: Asset/Building
Notable Verified Events Q2
Click on an event below for more details.
Crime
Terrorism
Unrest
War
NEXT SECTION
United States
9 June
June
Heatmaps of verified unrest events related to the impeachment of former South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol in Seoul and surrounding cities
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Verified Unrest Events, Spain, Q2 2025
Los Angeles: Pulse score, May-June
Los Angeles: EventsAI emotions, May-June
Panama: Verified Unrest Events, Q1
Panama: Verified Unrest Events, Q2
Jan
0
50
100
150
Verified Unrest Events in Israel, Q1-Q2 2025
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
84
69
119
56
79
33
Jun
Verified unrest events remained steady from Q1 to Q2, with rises in Africa and MENA regions balanced by a decline in the Americas.
MENA
All
Africa
APAC
Europe
Americas
War events in Ukraine increased 8% in Q2, following a 15% rise the previous quarter. In contrast, Russia saw a 20% drop in Q2. Russia has continued ground assaults towards key targets in the Donetsk region and mounted offensive operations in Sumy, as it pushed Ukrainian troops out of Kursk and continued advancing. Ukraine on 1 June staged its most impactful attack since the Kursk incursion in 2024, targeting several airbases in Russia using drones, and reportedly destroying 41 bomber aircraft. Russian forces on 17 June carried out a massive long-range attack on Kyiv and other cities, killing at least 15 people and injuring 139. The strike was likely retaliation for the airbase attack but follows a trend of large-scale drone and missile attacks against critical infrastructure and civilian areas aimed at weakening Ukraine’s war effort and demoralising the population.
All
Europe
In the Americas, war-related events in Colombia fell by 75% from Q1 to Q2 2025, with most involving clashes in Norte de Santander department between Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents, National Liberation Army (ELN) militants, and security forces. Fighting between FARC dissidents and ELN militants declined in both frequency and intensity in Q2. However, we recorded an incident involving an exchange of fire between Colombian militants and Peruvian troops in the Putumayo area of Loreto department (Peru) during an operation on the Yaguas river.
All
Americas
War events in Asia were largely steady despite a series of missile strikes and skirmishes between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control (LoC) following the 22 April terrorist attack in Pahalgam (Jammu and Kashmir). War events in Myanmar remained relatively stable, with most fighting concentrated in the Sagaing Region, Shan State, and central Myanmar. The military government on 2 April declared a 20-day ceasefire following a magnitude 7.7 earthquake, extended on 2 June by the ethnic rebel Three Brotherhood Alliance to facilitate reconstruction, but fighting continues in ethnic strongholds such as Rakhine, Shan, Kayin, and Kachin states. In Taiwan, the frequency of Chinese military aircraft incursions across the median line of the Taiwan Strait remained steady from Q1 to Q2, with a monthly average of 27 intrusions in both quarters.
All
APAC
War events in Africa fell 36% in Q2 2025 compared with Q1, driven by a sharp decline in Sudan after the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) largely recaptured Khartoum from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The shift in control significantly reduced clashes in the capital and central regions, though fighting has since moved westward and war events are likely to increase in coming months in the Darfur region. Somalia saw a 42% drop in war events as improved defensive operations by local clan militias, bolstered by the Somali National Army (SNA) and international partners, helped stall al-Shabab advances. In contrast, war events in Nigeria rose 81%, driven by a surge in airstrikes targeting Islamist extremist militants in the northeast, alongside ground operations by the Nigerian army. Mali also saw a rise in war events linked to drone strikes and ground assaults against militant strongholds across Mopti, Kidal, Tombouctou, Kayes, and Koulikoro regions.
All
Africa
Verified War Events, Sudan, Q1-Q2 2025
Verified war events in the MENA region increased 9% quarter-on-quarter. Israel’s surprise attack on Iranian leaders, military infrastructure and nuclear sites, and Iran’s response, accounted for 15% of the region’s total – all between 13 and 24 June. Peace efforts will likely remain strained over coming months, particularly as Israel will seek to retain unilateral scope of action against any Iranian measures it deems a security threat. Palestinian Territories accounted for the highest number of war events, increasing 84% in the Gaza Strip in Q2 as Israel fully resumed military action following the breakdown of ceasefire talks with Hamas. However, there was a 23% fall in the West Bank. Syria saw an 81% quarterly fall due to a decline in Israeli airstrikes against former regime sites and a ceasefire in April between Turkish-backed forces and Syrian Democratic Forces to end four months of hostilities around the strategic Tishrin Dam.
All
MENA
Verified war events decreased slightly by 2% globally in Q2 compared with Q1, despite a slight rise in the MENA region.
War
executive summary
NEXT SECTION
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
War Events in Gaza
War Events in Israel (left) and Iran (right), 13-24 June 2025
Security Force Airstrikes Against Militants in Mali – Q2 2025
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Verified War Events in Myanmar by State/Region, Q1-Q2 2025
Verified War Events, Colombia and Peru, Q2 2025
0
1000
2000
3000
War Events in Ukraine and Russia, Q3 2024 - Q2 2025
2025 Q2
4270
2025 Q1
2024 Q4
2024 Q3
4000
5000
6000
2708
4946
1887
5675
2399
6128
1897
Ukraine
Russia
MENA
All
Africa
APAC
Europe
Americas
Seerist verified 11 terrorism events in Europe in Q2, including four in Greece and three in Russia, down from 16 in Q1. The attacks in Greece caused minor damage but no casualties; Greek anarchist groups often provide warnings ahead of bomb attacks, allowing the authorities time to clear the location. We recorded terrorism incidents in Germany, the Netherlands and the UK. The most notable was on 18 May in Bielefeld, North Rhine-Westphalia, where a Syrian man stabbed and injured five people outside a bar, in an attack linked to Islamist extremist terrorism. The incidents in the Netherlands and UK targeted Jewish people/assets, including an attempt by a man to enter the Israeli embassy in London armed with knives.
All
Europe
Terrorism activity in the Americas declined slightly from Q1 to Q2, with most attacks occurring in Colombia, mostly in Valle del Cauca, Cauca, and Antioquia departments. Most attacks involved FARC dissidents and ELN militants targeting security forces. We recorded an 18% rise in use of explosives by these militants in Q2, including eight car bomb attacks, six of them on 10 June outside police stations in Valle del Cauca and Cauca. Terrorism levels were stable in Chile; all the verified events were arson attacks attributed to suspected Mapuche militants in La Araucanía and BíoBío regions. In the US, the FBI classified a 17 May car bomb explosion at a fertility clinic in Palm Springs (CA) as an act of terrorism. The attack resulted in one death, four injuries and significant property damage. While rare, such facilities, along with abortion clinics, remain potential targets for ideologically motivated violence.
All
Americas
Attacks by Suspected FARC Dissidents in Cauca and Valle del Cauca Departments – Q2 2025
The APAC region saw an 18% decline in terrorism events in Q2 compared with Q1. Firearms and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) remain the most common attack methods across the region. In Pakistan, terrorist attacks continue to be concentrated in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. Notably, a suicide bombing on 21 May targeted a bus carrying children to a military-run school on the Karachi-Quetta National Highway in Khuzdar, Balochistan, killing at least five people and injuring more than 50 others. While the overall terrorism rate in India remains low, a high-profile attack on 22 April in Pahalgam triggered a military escalation between India and Pakistan.
All
APAC
Terrorism events in Africa declined 2% in Q2. Despite a 16% quarterly drop in Mozambique, Islamist militants began targeting security forces more frequently and with greater severity from May, including a 28 June Islamic State (IS)-claimed attack killing at least 20 soldiers in Macomia district, Cabo Delgado. Terrorism events doubled in Mali in Q2, with a string of attacks by Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM) militants in May and June, including against Tombouctou airport and two mining sites in Kayes and Koulikoro regions. In Cameroon, Islamist extremist activity was steady in Far North region, but Anglophone separatist violence more than doubled in Northwest, Southwest and West regions. Nigeria's threat landscape grew more complex in Q2, with increased activity by Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), Boko Haram, Lakurawa, Mahmuda, and Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) militants across several states. Uganda recorded its first terrorism incidents since December 2023, with two foiled suicide bomb attacks linked to ADF operatives in June.
All
Africa
Verified Terrorism Events in Nigeria, Q2 2025
Terrorism events in the MENA region fell by 25% from Q1 to Q2 2025, following an even larger 79% quarterly decline from Q4 2024. Both Palestinian Territories (36%) and Yemen (43%) saw significant quarterly drops. In Syria, Islamic State (IS) activity in the northeast decreased slightly, but the group carried out a deadly church attack in Damascus on 22 June – its first major operation in the south since the Assad regime collapsed in December 2024. In contrast, Israel saw a 20% quarterly increase in terrorism events, but the Q2 total is still more than 90% below the Q4 2024 figure. Despite near-daily Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon, Hizbullah has not responded since the November 2024 ceasefire and is unlikely to escalate hostilities. Israel’s military operations in Gaza have severely degraded Hamas’s capabilities. Israeli security forces remain likely to intercept most attacks by Hamas and Yemen’s Houthis.
All
MENA
Terrorism Events in Israel by Perpetrator, Q4 2024 – Q2 2025
We recorded a 13% decline in verified terrorism events in Q2, with significant falls in APAC and MENA regions.
Terrorism
executive summary
NEXT SECTION
0
100
200
300
400
500
Verified Terrorism Events in Israel, Oct 2023 – Jun 2025
Apr 2024
Feb 2024
Dec 2023
Oct 2023
Jun 2024
Aug 2024
Oct 2024
Dec 2024
Feb 2025
Apr 2025
Jun 2025
0
Q2 2025
Q1 2025
Q4 2024
400
200
100
Hizbullah
Hamas
500
600
700
800
300
Houthis
Islamic Resistance of Iraq
Verified Terrorism Events in APAC by Attack Types, Q2 2025
Gun (firearm)
IED/Homemade
Grenade
Roadside bomb
Arson/Firebomb
Mortar
Suicide bomber
Blockades
Drone
Knife/Bladed weapon
Terrorist Attacks in Colombia by Main Attack Types, Q2 2025
0
IED/Homemade Gun (firearm) Car bomb Blockades Drone
20
25
30
15
10
5
IED Attacks by Anarchists in Athens, Q2 2025
Spike in verified unrest events on 23 April, one day after the Pahalgam attack.
Nationwide General Strike by Central Trade Unions
Talisman Sabre Military Exercise
UK Climate Vigil
July 2025
August 2025
September 2025
Low
Medium
High
Burundi Elections
XR Norway Climate Campaign
Bolivia General Elections
TICAD 9
Guyana General Elections
Norway Parliamentary Elections
UNGA 80
Mahsa Amini Anniversary
Malawi General Election
Climate Week NYC
Seychelles General Election
Moldova Parliamentary Elections
Africa
Americas
APAC
Europe
MENA
Nationwide General Strike by Central Trade Unions
India
July 9 The Joint Platform of Central Trade Unions (CTUs) plans to hold a nationwide general strike to oppose the implementation of the four Labor Codes. The strike was previously scheduled for 20 May but was postponed following the Pahalgam attack. Store operations, manufacturing units, and other operations are likely to be disrupted during the strike. Related protests are a risk.
Region: APAC
Category; subcategory: Security; Strike
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Senatorial and Village-level Elections Burundi July 23
The ruling National Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) party will likely retain its majority, having consolidated control over the wider state and security apparatus and restricted opposition campaigns. Widespread violence is unlikely, but some political and ethnic unrest is likely given continued tensions between major ethnic groups and the presence of armed groups operating in the country.
Region: Africa
Category; subcategory: Political (election); Election Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact type: Unrest
Christian Climate Action Rosebank Silent Vigil United Kingdom July 23
Christian Climate Action—an Extinction Rebellion (XR) community group—are planning to hold a silent protest 'vigil' outside the headquarters of Equinor in London to denounce the proposed Rosebank oilfield project, as well as the involvement of Ithaca Energy in the project, due to Ithaca's Israel links. Participants will gather outside Equinor HQ from 12.00-14.00 (local time). As a silent vigil, the protest is highly likely to be peaceful, resulting in minimal disruption in the vicinity.
Region: Europe
Category; subcategory: Security; Protest Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025 Australia, Papua New Guinea July 13 – August 4
Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025, the tenth iteration of the biennial US–Australia military exercise, will be held from 13 July to 4 August across several Australian states and in Papua New Guinea. The exercise will involve more than 35,000 personnel from 19 countries, including all branches of the US military, the Australian Defense Force, and other government agencies. Activities will include amphibious landings, urban operations, joint air and maritime exercises, space and cyber operations, and special forces training, with a focus on enhancing multinational interoperability and regional security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.
Region: APAC
Category; subcategory: Military; Military Exercise Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Conflict
Extinction Rebellion (XR) Norway Climate Action Campaign Norway August 11-22
Activists from Extinction Rebellion (XR) Norway will organize protests in several locations from 11 to 22 August against Norway's alleged expansion of its fossil fuel industry. Activists from other European countries are likely to participate. Demonstrations are planned around the Arendalsuka, a political gathering held annually since 2012 in Arendal (Agder county) from 11 to 15 August. XR activists oppose the presence of oil companies among the sponsors. Activists also announced protests in the Vestlandet (Western Norway) region, central to Norway's oil industry, on 18-19 August, and central Oslo from 18 to 22 August, related to government plans to issue hundreds of new oil licenses through 2029. Demonstrations are expected to be largely peaceful, but traffic and operational disruption are likely.
Region: Europe
Category; subcategory: Security; Protest Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact: Unrest, Transportation
General elections Bolivia August 17
General elections take place on 17 August. Supporters of former president Evo Morales (2006-19) have been engaged in violent protests and roadblocks to allow him to stand, but he remains barred due to term limits. President Luis Arce of the ruling Movement towards Socialism (MAS) withdrew from the election, but the left is still divided between two candidates. With the economy deteriorating, this will boost the opposition’s prospects, though it too is divided, with former president Carlos Quiroga (2001-02) among candidates hoping to end the MAS’ two decades in power. Risks of electoral fraud and political violence will be moderate. Regardless of the outcome, unrest is likely, including risks of disruptive and violent protests.
Region: Americas
Category; subcategory: Political (election); Election Potential Severity: High Potential Impact Type: Unrest
Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9) Japan August 20-22
The Ninth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9) takes place at Pacifico Yokohama (Kanagawa Prefecture). The summit will bring together African leaders, development partners, and international organizations to promote dialogue on sustainable development, trade, investment, and peacebuilding across the continent. A concurrent TICAD Business Expo & Conference will include exhibitions, panel discussions, and networking forums aimed at enhancing public-private cooperation. The event is expected to remain peaceful, but heightened security measures are likely in light of disruptions at preparatory meetings.
Region: APAC
Category; subcategory: Geopolitical; Multilateral Meeting Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
General elections Guyana September 1
Centre-left President Irfaan Ali of the People's Progressive Party Civic (PPP/C) is likely to be re-elected. However, opposition parties will likely secure a majority in the National Assembly (legislature). Protests are likely to last several days and cause moderate disruption, especially after the announcement of the results.
Region: Americas
Category; subcategory: Political (election); Election Potential Severity: High Potential Impact Type: Unrest
Parliamentary Elections Norway September 8
Norway will hold its parliamentary elections following the collapse of the government coalition in January. The incumbent center-left Labor party is likely to win the elections, but is unlikely to secure a majority. As Labor has been recovering its popularity after the government's collapse and has been leading a minority government, it is likely to attempt to form a minority government in partnership with the Socialist Left. Any partnership between Labor and either the Conservatives or the right-wing Progressives is unlikely.
Region: Europe
Category; subcategory: Political (election); Election Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact: Unrest
80th Session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA 80) United States September 9-28
The 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA 80) starts on 9 September 2025 at the UN headquarters in New York City. The high-level General Debate begins on 23 September, when heads of state and government from the 193 UN member states convene to discuss pressing global issues. Stringent security measures are usually implemented around UN headquarters, including street closures, security checkpoints, and increased surveillance, leading to traffic disruption in Midtown Manhattan. UNGA 80 is likely to attract activist groups, potentially leading to demonstrations and associated disruption in the vicinity.
Region: Americas
Category; subcategory: Geopolitical; Intergovernmental Forum Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s Death Iran September 16
The date marks the anniversary of the death of a 22-year-old woman, Mahsa Amini, who was arrested and allegedly beaten to death by the religious morality police for not wearing a hijab, in 2022. Her death led to a series of mass protests in Iran’s major cities that the government forcibly repressed, and similar rallies on the anniversary of her death. The impact of the Iran-Israel conflict may reduce willingness to protest against the theocratic regime this year; any protests are likely to face harsh repression. Gatherings are possible at Iranian diplomatic missions in Western countries and in European cities with Iranian diaspora, including Geneva.
Region: MENA
Category: Anniversary Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact type: Unrest
General election Malawi September 16
Incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party will seek re-election against former president Peter Mutharika (2014-20) of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party. The 193 members of the National Assembly will also be elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies. No party is likely to win an outright majority, and as a result, a coalition government is likely.
Region: Africa
Category; subcategory: Political (election); Election Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact: Unrest
Climate Week 2025 United States September 21-28
Climate Week 2025 will be held in New York City from 21 to 28 September. The annual event hosts business leaders, politicians, and civil society groups to discuss solutions to the climate crisis. Events are held in across the five boroughs, with no central location. Heightened security measures, such as the increased deployment of security personnel, are likely.
Region: Americas
Category: Other Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Parliamentary Elections Moldova September 28
The ruling pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is favorite for the elections, but is likely to lose its majority as the economy remains stagnant despite the PAS’ promises of improvement. Russian electoral interference is highly likely. Explicitly pro-Russian candidates affiliated with exiled politician Ilan Sor are largely banned from running, and the key rivals to PAS (the Communists and the Alternativa bloc) are not explicitly pro-Russian, but they advocate more balanced ties with both Russia and the EU.
Uncertainty about the vote's outcome remains high as many voters are disillusioned and disapprove of all political forces. Even in the most likely scenario of PAS securing a plurality, talks on government formation will remain challenging. Public unrest is possible before and around the election day.
Region: Europe
Category; subcategory: Political (election); Election Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest
General Elections Seychelles 27 September
The National Assembly’s 36 members will be elected through a mixed system: 26 in first-past-the-post, single-member constituencies, and ten through proportional allocation based on the national vote. President Wavel Ramkalawan of the Linyon Demokratik Seselwa (LDS) party will seek a second term against Patrick Herminie of the United Seychelles (US) party. The contest will likely be competitive. Sporadic, small-scale protests will likely occur periodically, primarily in the capital Victoria. However, these demonstrations will remain peaceful, given that state security forces do not respond violently to demonstrations.
Region: Africa
Category; subcategory: Political (election); Election Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact type: Unrest
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What to Watch Q3 Timeline
Click on an event below for more details.
SEVERITY RATING
This is largely attributable to turf wars between Brazil’s two main organized criminal groups (OCGs)—First Capital Command (FCC) and Red Command (CV)—which ended a truce at the end of April. The resumption in conflict will amplify violence in coming months, especially in hotspots like Rio de Janeiro, posing threats to bystanders and businesses across the country.
Unrest events were up more than 30% in Q2 2025. Most protests involved local community groups and labor unions, but there was also a significant rise in events involving indigenous activists and environmentalists. The rise was partly driven by ‘Red April’, when the Landless Workers Movement (MST) holds annual protests for agrarian reform. Government failure to meet promises to the MST and indigenous groups will fuel protests, especially as COP30 will provide greater visibility to these movements.
Heatmap of Verified Crime Events in Brazil, Q2 2025
Belém
We recorded 92 crime events in Pará state during Q2. Pará’s security and crime risk ratings were lowered from high to medium in May due to reduced homicide rates and a decline in turf wars. The decline is likely linked to increased security personnel deployed to the area ahead of COP30. However, crimes like robberies and targeted shootings remain a threat, with 17 crime events verified in Belém in Q2.
We recorded 14 protests in Belém in Q2. These included roadblocks by street vendors displaced by COP30-related construction; more such protests are likely as preparations for the event continue. Other protests in Belém included public workers demanding higher salaries and improved conditions, and indigenous and environmental activists demanding inclusion at COP30. Unrest is typically rare in Belém, but COP30’s high profile is likely to attract activism.
Verified Crime Events in Belém (Pará state), Q2 2025
Verified Unrest Events in Belém (Pará state), Q2 2025
COP30 Venue
Verified Crime Events in Belém (Pará state), Q2 2025
COP30 Venue
Verified Unrest Events in Belém (Pará state), Q2 2025
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Yemen
6 May
On N Indian Canyon Dr, Palm Springs, California, a morning car bomb explosion outside a reproduction clinic left at least one person dead, four wounded, and several properties and a vehicle damaged.
33.839154, -116.545838 Location precision: Asset/Building
United States
17 May