Security Verified Event Report
Q2 2023
Q2 Special Features
Event Trends
Trending 10
What to Watch in Q3
Protests by environmentalist activists have increased globally since Q4 2022 – most significantly in Europe, but notably in Asia and the Pacific and the Americas as well. In Europe, we recorded that protest incidents more than doubled from Q1 to Q2, with the most incidents in Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Austria and the Netherlands. The UK had the highest number of environmental protests, driven by actions organized by the group Just Stop Oil.
Climate activism trends up
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Americas
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Europe
Americas
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Americas
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Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Most protests in Europe were directed towards central governments and the oil and gas sector, with demands focused on halting fossil fuel projects. However, activists have also sought to draw attention to companies, events, or projects that they see as contributing to climate change. Art exhibits, sporting events, and private jets have all been targeted by activist action.
Seerist foresees that events carried out by environmentalist groups in Europe will continue to increase. Road blockades and rallies aimed at disruption – particularly at high-profile event venues – will remain the primary form of protest. Activists and local community groups will continue to target construction projects related to energy with stalling tactics. Over the longer term, Control Risks’ analysts are watching for the increasing radicalization of environmental groups in Europe, including their alignment with left-wing extremist groups.
In Asia and the Pacific, Australia and New Zealand accounted for almost half of the recorded environmental-related unrest in Q2. In Australia, Blockade Australia and Extinction Rebellion are the most active groups in causing disruptions to major roads, railways, and port facilities - targeting mainly the energy sector. For example, port operations in Brisbane, Melbourne, and Newcastle were disrupted on 19-20 June when a group of activists blocked coal shipments. Environmentalist groups in Asia will continue to demand more action from governments on climate change, including the end of fossil fuel and coal projects.
Later this year, Japan is likely to release tons of treated nuclear wastewater from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean after getting the green light from the International Atomic Energy Agency. This has triggered significant diplomatic outcry from neighbouring countries – such as China, South Korea and the Pacific Island Nations – and may manifest in physical protests.
In North America, we recorded a nearly threefold increase in environmental activism over the past quarter. Most incidents occurred in the US and Canada, targeting fossil fuel projects, but environmental protests were also recorded in Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico and Ecuador. In Latin America, environmental activists are at an elevated risk of violence – including murder – compared to other regions, a consistent trend over the past decade. According to a Global Witness NGO report from Q4 2022, mining, logging, and agriculture were the main drivers for such murders. In Q2, we recorded five such incidents, in Honduras (2), Colombia (2) and Mexico (1).
Europe
Europe
Europe
Americas
Americas
Americas
APAC
APAC
APAC
Climate Activism Analysis
Climate Activism by Region Q4 2022 – Q2 2023
In the first half of 2023, we recorded spikes in unrest in countries across Africa – including in some countries which rarely see significant unrest.
Unrest in Africa
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In our last report, we featured unrest in response to inflation and the increasing cost of living across much of the globe. While protests driven by these issues have subsided in much of the world, they have continued in selected countries in Africa, where high levels of public debt and challenging macroeconomic conditions have forced some governments to implement reforms designed to raise state revenues, such as subsidy cuts or tax increases. In addition, in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa armed conflicts and droughts in 2022 and 2023 have also contributed to rising food prices.
Nigeria
Kenya
Unrest Incidents in Select African Countries, January – June 2023
Morocco
Senegal
Angola
Sierra-Leone
Q2 Special Feature
Q2 Special Feature
In Nigeria, protests and strikes occurred as the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) announced on 31 May an increase in the price of petrol after the removal of fuel subsidies. Petrol prices are likely to increase further in July, along with electricity tariffs – which Seerist expects to sustain the threat of unrest over the coming weeks, particularly in larger cities.
Nigeria
Analysis
In Kenya, a few sizeable protests occurred at the beginning of June, mainly in the capital Nairobi, in the build up to and following the passage of the controversial Finance Act 2023 on 21 June which increases taxes on fuel and introduces mandatory contributions for public housing at a time when high food inflation is already straining local incomes. Protests are likely in opposition strongholds and particularly in major urban centres including the capital Nairobi, Kisumu and Mombasa.
Kenya
In Sierra-Leone, protests by the opposition All People’s Congress (APC) occurred ahead of the 24 June elections over both the precarious economic situation of the country (inflation stands at 43%) and in the build up to the elections. President Julius Maada Bio was sworn in for a second term on 27 June. The main opposition All People’s Congress (APC) has rejected results and small-scale protests in northern and western regions of the country are likely over the coming weeks, but Seerist expects them to be quickly suppressed by security forces, limiting the threat of large-scale unrest.
Sierra-Lione
In Morocco, unrest increased 18% compared to last quarter. Demonstrations on 21 June took place in more than 40 cities nationwide to protest the rising cost of living, particularly food. Seerist forecasts that protests and strike action by trade unions around these issues are likely over the coming months.
Morocco
In Angola, the number of verified unrest events increased in Q2, driven by protests related to a government reduction of fuel subsidies and a commensurate sharp increase in fuel prices. Protests occurred mainly in the capital Luanda - as well as in the cities of Huambo, and Moçâmedes - and were led by taxi drivers and the opposition National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), disrupting transportation services.
Angola
Between 5-18 June, Angola’s Pulse score dropped 20 points from 51 to 31, amid major protests over fuel prices
In Senegal, we recorded more than a 65% increase in unrest events in Q2 compared to Q1, mainly driven by protests related to the multiple cases against main opposition leader Ousmane Sonko. Unrest events predominantly occurred in
Senegal
Seerist forecasts that further protests are likely due to cost-of-living pressures, but will be short-lived, as security forces will use heavy-handed tactics to disperse demonstrators. Businesses are unlikely to be directly targeted, but operational disruption and incidental security threats for businesses, particularly in major urban centres like Luanda, are likely.
Click on a country for analysis.
the capital, Dakar, where Seerist recorded three Hotspots between 1-3 June during major opposition protests, as well as Sonko’s home region of Ziguinchor where he remains under house arrest. Businesses, including petrol stations, banks, and supermarkets were subject to looting, arson, and vandalism, while infrastructure also sustained notable damage. Following an April lull in unrest events due to Ramadan, a resumption of protests in early May saw Senegal’s Pulse score prominently trend downwards into early June, at which point the Pulse score drops to its lowest in Q2 (29), during the major protests of 1-3 June. On 14 June 2023, Seerist forecast the continuation of protests into Q3, as Sonko’s legal trials continue to drive threats from civil unrest. In an address to the nation on 3 July, President Macky Sall announced that he would not seek a third term at the 25 February 2024 presidential election. This will likely mitigate the threat of further periods of widespread unrest in the coming months.
Seerist recorded 46% more anti-government protests in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, with peaks during the months of February, March and May 2023. Most of these protests relate to the cost of living and removal of subsidies, though political disputes and elections have also contributed to upticks in unrest targeting governments. The high cost of living in parts of the continent will remain a driver of unrest in the coming quarters.
Government Unrest in Africa
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Government Related Protests in Africa
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Unrest
Unrest
Unrest
Terrorism
Terrorism
Terrorism
War
War
War
On 9 May, the arrest of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader and former prime minister Imran Khan on corruption charges triggered unrest nationwide. Clashes between protestors and security forces turned violent, along with vandalism and arson attacks against military installations, government buildings and public property. The widespread unrest was captured by a downward spike in Seerist’s Pulse History and Trendline that reached a low on 11 May. Subsequently, the government imposed a ban on gatherings of more than four people, deployed the army and suspended mobile and internet services.
Although Khan was granted bail after his arrest was ruled ‘unlawful’ on 12 May, he remains under investigation in over 100 legal cases and is likely to be re-arrested, after non-bailable arrest warrants were issued by an anti-terrorism court on 20 June. Political tensions will remain heightened as PTI leaders and supporters currently face trial under military laws for their involvement in protests.
Canada, the UK, Mexico and Indonesia are new countries in the Top 10 for unrest events in Q2, replacing Peru, Nigeria, Lebanon, and South Africa.
Global Unrest
Terrorism and crime incidents in Chile, particularly in rural areas of the Biobio and La Araucania regoins, doubled in Q2 compared to the previous quarter. Indigenous Mapuche militants claimed responsibility for several incidents, mostly arson, but drug traffickers are also suspected of involvement in several attacks, particularly in the Biobío and La Araucanía rural areas. Forestry industry worksites, agribusiness and power assets were targeted, posing a high risk of sabotage to such sectors in all three regions. Notably, on 9 June, an attack with explosives destroyed an energy transmission line between Cañete and Los Álamos municipalities (Biobío). Seerist forecasts that the new state of emergency imposed by the government in the area is unlikely to significantly ease security risks in the coming months, as structural drivers of violence persist.
Global Terrorism
While terrorism events continued to decline globally, Chile, Israel and the Palestinian Territories rose into the countries most affected by terrorism this quarter. Somalia, Burkina Faso, Yemen and Iraq dropped from the top countries compared to last quarter.
War incidents increased significantly in Russia in Q2 2023, likely reflecting the start of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in areas occupied by Russian forces. Russian regions bordering Ukraine, such as Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk have been targeted by the majority of attacks. Russian officials claimed on 3 May that electronic warfare systems neutralised two Ukrainian drones that targeted the Kremlin complex in the capital Moscow. More significantly, fighters of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s paramilitary Wagner Group on 24 June captured military command centers and airfields in Rostov and Voronezh regions, shot down at least two military aircraft, and began a ‘march of justice’ toward the capital Moscow. The march was called off later that day after the group reached a deal with the Kremlin. The subsequent withdrawal of Wagner forces from Rostov and Voronezh will likely contribute to the stabilisation of the security and political situation in Russia over the coming weeks.
Global War
Ukraine and Myanmar remained the countries with the greatest number of war events this quarter, while Sudan, Russia and Burkina Faso are new additions to the top country list.
Heatmap of War Incidents in Russia, Q2
In Sudan, an outbreak of war incidents occurred in Q2, after clashes erupted between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 15 April over the breakdown of a power sharing arrangement, which planned to integrate the RSF into the SAF command structure. War events mainly occurred in the capital Khartoum as well as the nearby cities of Omdurman and Bahri, and involved control over strategic locations such as Khartoum International Airport (KRT), State Television offices, and military positions. Seerist forecasts that clashes are likely to continue in Khartoum, and that the security environment will continue to deteriorate in the Darfur and Kordofan regions. While the US and Saudi Arabia have facilitated peace talks between the warring factions in Jeddah, both the RSF and SAF view the conflict as an existential threat and it’s unlikely that talks will bring a swift end to fighting.
War Events in Sudan, Q2 2023
Global Trending Ten
Seerist forsees that political uncertainty and the ongoing confrontation between the judiciary on the one hand and the military and the government on the other will sustain our HIGH political risk rating.
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United States
545 Events
Mexico
182 Events
Canada
143 Events
United Kingdom
137 Events
France
168 Events
Israel
132 Events
Iraq
313 Events
Pakistan
360 Events
India
344 Events
Indonesia
134 Events
The geographical distribution of Terrorism and Crime incidents in the Biobío, Araucanía and Los Ríos regions, Q2 2023
Source: Seerist
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Pakistan
101 Events
Chile
54 Events
Colombia
42 Events
India
44 Events
Congo
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50 Events
Israel
37 Events
Palestinian
Territories
39 Events
Syria
77 Events
Nigeria
56 Events
Cameroon
36 Events
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Ukraine
5,699 Events
Myanmar
675 Events
Sudan
369 Events
Syria
246 Events
Russia
205 Events
Palestinian
Territories
180 Events
Congo
(DRC)
100 Events
Burkina
Faso
Afghanistan
Somalia
Click here for the full data analysis.
India will be hosting the G20 Leaders’ Summit from 9 to 10 September in New Delhi. Protests over the climate crisis and high cost of living are likely to happen around this period.
What to Watch in Q3 2023
In Israel, the Knesset (parliament) on 11 July voted in favor of a controversial bill that would limit the power of the Supreme Court. The government’s efforts to reform the judiciary have sparked an unprecedented scale of civil unrest since January, and an intensification of protest activity is expected over the coming weeks as the government prepares to hold the second and third parliamentary hearings on the bill in order to ratify it by the end of July.
What to Watch — Elections
India
Israel
Hover over circles for number of incidents.
Spain
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Central African Republic
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
Spain
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Central African Republic
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
A snap general election will take place on 23 July following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Socialist Party's (PSOE) significant losses in the regional and municipal elections of 28 May. The 350 seats of the Congress of Deputies (lower chamber) and 208 out of 265 seats in the Senate (upper chamber) will be renewed in the general election. The legislative elections outcome remains uncertain, with no party likely to obtain a majority on its own, though right-wing parties are likely to perform well.
Spain
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Central African Republic
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
General elections on 23 August will elect a new parliament and president. Elections will take place amid a prolonged economic crisis and high rates of anti-government sentiment. Civil unrest and opposition activity are likely to take place in larger cities, which are likely to be hotspots for unruly protests and violent responses by security forces. The threat of violence will remain elevated throughout the electoral period with security forces likely to respond to opposition activity with increased force closer to the election date.
Spain
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Central African Republic
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
Presidential, legislative, and local elections will be held on 26 August. Incumbent President Ali Bongo Ondimba is expected to win re-election, alongside his Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG). Although a lack of opposition unity means large-scale protests are unlikely, any delays or irregularities in the electoral process will likely trigger calls for opposition protests during the presidential campaign (11-25 August).
Spain
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Central African Republic
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
A referendum on the adoption of a new constitution will be held on 30 July. President Faustin-Archange Touadéra is likely using the referendum to clear the way for him to seek a third term at the 2025 presidential election. While Touadéra is likely to win the referendum, the vote will exacerbate tensions with the opposition, increasing the threat of protests and civil unrest in the coming weeks. However, protests will remain small-scale and are unlikely to cause prolonged instability.
Spain
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Central African Republic
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
In Ecuador, President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the National Assembly on 17 May, triggering an electoral process and thwarting the institutional deadlock in national politics. The National Electoral Council (CNE) scheduled executive and legislative elections on 20 August. The risk of civil unrest will remain latent in the period leading up to the election.
Spain
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Central African Republic
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
In Argentina local elections were held on 11 June. Although the left-wing ruling coalition won six of the ten provincial elections, Seerist analysis projects its defeat in the national executive and legislative elections on 22 October, considering the coalition’s approval ratings are less than 20%. Unrest related to the elections is unlikely.
Spain
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Central African Republic
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
The National Assembly is set to dissolve on 13 August, and general elections are scheduled less than 60 days after its dissolution, or within 90 days if dissolved earlier. Ultimately, the election timeline will be determined by the military, the most influential institution in the country’s political landscape.
Event Trends
Seerist highlighted a global increase in protests related to inflation, the high cost of living, and fuel prices in our past two quarterly reports. However, data from this quarter shows that – apart from Africa and Europe – protests related to these economic issues mostly eased in Q2.
While there are some positive economic signs – inflation has started to ease in some countries and in June, the World Bank raised its 2023 global growth outlook to 2.1%, up from 1.7% forecasted in January – many countries globally are continuing to deal with budget pressures. In more than a third of low-income countries, public debt averages about 70% of GDP.
Unrest Analysis
Unrest
Unrest
Unrest
Terrorism
Terrorism
Terrorism
Crime
Crime
Crime
War
War
War
MENA
Americas
Europe
APAC
Africa
1.83%
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1253
668
1693
1328
683
1436
1012
1569
1088
623
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Terrorism events continue to drop globally, with the most significant quarterly decrease in Africa (16.1%). However, West Africa remains the primary hotspot for terrorism, with events recorded in Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Mali, Niger and Nigeria accounting for over 57.8% of the region’s terrorism events in Q2.
Terrorism Analysis
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Q1 2023
Q2 2023
0.77%
The Americas had the most significant increase in crime-related events, with an increase of 28.9% over the past quarter. Aside from the usual crime hotspots in the region – such as Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia – Seerist recorded a higher number of crime events in Argentina, mainly due to the activity of organised crime groups in Rosario (Santa Fe province).
Crime Analysis
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6000
2628
403
1320
923
1583
3390
607
1569
1016
1591
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
19.19%
7000
8000
9000
As in the previous quarters, the war in Ukraine continues to drive the overall count of war events, with an increase of collateral incidents in Russia in Q2.
War Analysis
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11
6338
855
510
351
9
6381
937
1041
390
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
8.59%
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Climate Activism Trends Up
Unrest in Africa
Click for analysis.
Q2 Special Feature:
Unrest in Africa
Q2 Special Feature:
Climate Activism Trends Up
Africa
Europe
Americas
APAC
MENA
Africa
Europe
Americas
APAC
MENA
1. United States
2. Pakistan
3. India
4. Iraq
5. Mexico
6. France
7. Canada
8. United Kingdom
9. Indonesia
10. Israel
1. Pakistan
2. Syria
3. Nigeria
4. Chile
5. Congo (DRC)
6. India
7. Colombia
8. Palestinian Territories
9. Israel
10. Cameroon
1. Ukraine
2. Myanmar
3. Sudan
4. Syria
5. Russia
6. Palestinian Territories
7. Congo (DRC)
8. Burkina Faso
9. Afghanistan
10. Somalia
Spain
General elections on 23 August will elect a new parliament and president. Elections will take place amid a prolonged economic crisis and high rates of anti-government sentiment. Civil unrest and opposition activity are likely to take place in larger cities, which are likely to be hotspots for unruly protests and violent responses by security forces. The threat of violence will remain elevated throughout the electoral period with security forces likely to respond to opposition activity with increased force closer to the election date.
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Central African Republic
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
Spain
Zimbabwe
Presidential, legislative, and local elections will be held on 26 August. Incumbent President Ali Bongo Ondimba is expected to win re-election, alongside his Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG). Although a lack of opposition unity means large-scale protests are unlikely, any delays or irregularities in the electoral process will likely trigger calls for opposition protests during the presidential campaign (11-25 August).
Gabon
Central African Republic
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
Spain
Zimbabwe
Gabon
A referendum on the adoption of a new constitution will be held on 30 July. President Faustin-Archange Touadéra is likely using the referendum to clear the way for him to seek a third term at the 2025 presidential election. While Touadéra is likely to win the referendum, the vote will exacerbate tensions with the opposition, increasing the threat of protests and civil unrest in the coming weeks. However, protests will remain small-scale and are unlikely to cause prolonged instability.
Central African Republic
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
Spain
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Central African Republic
In Ecuador, President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the National Assembly on 17 May, triggering an electoral process and thwarting the institutional deadlock in national politics. The National Electoral Council (CNE) scheduled executive and legislative elections on 20 August. The risk of civil unrest will remain latent in the period leading up to the election.
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
Spain
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Central African Republic
In Argentina local elections were held on 11 June. Although the left-wing ruling coalition won six of the ten provincial elections, Seerist analysis projects its defeat in the national executive and legislative elections on 22 October, considering the coalition’s approval ratings are less than 20%. Unrest related to the elections is unlikely.
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
Spain
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Central African Republic
Ecuador
The National Assembly is set to dissolve on 13 August, and general elections are scheduled less than 60 days after its dissolution, or within 90 days if dissolved earlier. Ultimately, the election timeline will be determined by the military, the most influential institution in the country’s political landscape.
Argentina
Pakistan
Spain
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Central African Republic
Ecuador
Argentina
Pakistan
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