Executive Summary
War
Unrest
Terrorism
October 7: Year in Review + Regional Implications
US Elections
Future Events: Q4 2024
Seerist’s Intelligence Team verified more than 29,900 war, terrorism, unrest and organised crime events globally in Q3 2024, representing a 6% increase over the previous quarter.
WAR
OCTOBER 7: YEAR IN REVIEW + REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS
In contrast, Israel faced fewer than 100 terrorism events in the year prior to the eruption of the Israel-Hams conflict (October 2022 – October 2023), and Seerist verified approximately 560 war events in the Palestinian Territories, mainly related to targeted Israeli raids/operations and clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants in the West Bank. Seerist tracked the effects of the war rippling through the region since October 2023, verifying nearly 100 attacks by Houthi militants targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea, Bab Al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden, and over 162 attacks by Iran-backed paramilitary groups, primarily in Iraq and Syria, against US military assets and soldiers.
GAZA
ISRAEL
LEBANON
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2023
Q4 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q1 2024
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q2 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q3 2024
Q3 2024
US ELECTIONS
The United States on 5 November 2024 will hold general elections, with Vice-President Kamala Harris facing former president Donald Trump (2017-21) in the presidential race. The election will almost certainly be a close race, with presidential candidates needing to win key 'swing states' across the US to secure the election. In Q2 and Q3, the campaigns saw a series of almost unprecedented events, including Trump’s criminal conviction on 30 May, two assassination attempts against the former president on 13 July in Butler (Pennsylvania) and 15 September in West Palm Beach (Florida), and the withdrawal of the incumbent, Democratic President Biden, from the race on 21 July.
Throughout Q3, Seerist closely monitored and recorded unrest and security events tied to the elections, identifying a surge in unrest events targeting or directly related to both the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns. Many of these incidents were recorded around the Republican National Convention (RNC) held in Milwaukee (Wisconsin) in July and the Democratic National Convention (DNC) held in Chicago (Illinois) in August as well as during the televised presidential and vice-presidential debates. However, overall verified unrest events decreased across the US from Q2 to Q3, mainly due to a more than 50% reduction in student-led pro-Palestine protests during the university summer break.
Verified war events increased globally by 15% from Q2 to Q3, with event counts rising in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Europe and Africa regions.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Americas
Europe
APAC
MENA
Africa
Verified War Events in Q3 2024
Q2
Q3
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
In MENA, the largest increase in war events was recorded in Lebanon, due to Israeli airstrikes and artillery shelling against Hizbullah targets. As Israel shifted its focus towards Hizbullah in Q3, war incidents in the Palestinian Territories decreased by 12%. War incidents increased by 34% in Syria due to a resumption of Israeli airstrikes around Damascus, which were paused temporarily in Q2, and an increase in Syrian regime attacks on militants in the Idlib and Aleppo governorates.
Q3 2024 Verified War Events in MENA
In Africa, the rise in verified war events was driven by an escalation in the conflict between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in Sudan, with most incidents recorded in and around Khartoum and North Darfur.
Q3 2024 Verified War Events in Khartoum
In Europe, war events significantly increased in Russia following Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region in August. Seerist data shows an 81% increase in Russia war events from Q1 to Q3, and a 26% increase from Q2 to Q3.
Kursk, Russia
War incidents decreased slightly in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region, mainly due to a small reduction in fighting in Myanmar, despite resistance forces capturing several military bases and towns, particularly in border areas.
Security Incident Report
Q3 2024
In this quarterly report, we extract key trends from Seerist data to analyse Q3 global patterns and provide forecasts on what's to come in the months ahead.
Unrest events worldwide remained relatively steady throughout Q2 and Q3, but with some regional changes.
UNREST
JUMP TO SECTION
Hover over locations for more information.
Low Severity Level
Medium Severity Level
Nationwide transportation strike
Argentina
30 October
A group of seven transportation unions, including the Federation of Taxi drivers, the Workers Association of the Automotive Transport Industry (AOITA) and the Maritime Punters' Union (SEAMARA), will hold a nationwide 24-hour general strike on 30 October to demand an increase in wages. The action will primarily affect rail, maritime and air transport across the country, however, there is still a potential for the bus drivers union to join the strike which would disrupt public bus routes throughout the day. Transport and operational disruptions can be expected across passenger and cargo trains, passenger and commercial shipping and at airports. There is a realistic possibility that striking transportation workers will stage protests on 30 October in Buenos Aires and other cities, at major airports like the Buenos Aires Ezeiza Airport (EZE) and at ports nationwide. Demonstrations are likely to remain peaceful, but will likely cause further disruption to vehicular traffic.
Potential Severity: Medium
Potential Impact Type: Travel, Unrest, Transportation
FUTURE EVENTS: Q4 2024
March against the Labour Party in Parliament Square, London
United Kingdom
2 November
Supporters of a coalition of environmentalist and pro-Palestine groups are due to rally in Parliament Square, London, from 14:00 local time to protest Labour Party welfare and foreign policies, particularly those related to welfare benefits and the supply of weaponry to Israel. The demonstration is likely to be attended by hundreds of activists and will almost certainly cause transport disruption in Parliament Square. The groups that have announced their intent to participate in the protest often use vandalism as a method of protest; there is a realistic possibility that these groups will seek to vandalise businesses and government offices in the area during the action. Additionally, there is a realistic possibility of isolated violent clashes between protesters and police during the demonstration.
Potential Severity: Medium
Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Women's March To The White House, Washington DC
United States
2 November
Women's March activists are due to rally and march to the White House in Washington DC to protest in support of issues relating to feminism and racial equality in the United States. Marches will occur throughout the country, but Washington DC's protest will almost certainly be the largest. This demonstration is likely to be attended by tens of thousands of people and is highly likely to cause sustained traffic disruption in the vicinity of the White House throughout the day. Violence is highly unlikely at this protest. There will be a significantly heightened security presence in the area for the duration of the rally to control crowds and ensure public safety. Further details, including the exact timing and route of the march, will be released closer to the date.
Potential Severity: Low
Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Land transportation sector strike
Spain
28 October – 23 December
Unionized road transportation sector workers have called for a series of strikes on 28 October, 11, 28 and 29 November, as well as on 5, 9 and 23 December to demand improved working conditions and early retirement options. The stoppages would affect road freight transport, urban public transport by bus, road passenger transport and medical transport. The UGT and CCOO unions have warned that if an agreement is not reached by 23 December the strike will become indefinite. Transportation, shipping and delivery disruptions should be expected during the strikes.
Potential Severity: Medium
Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Southern African cyclone season
Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mayotte, Comoros, Réunion, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mauritius, South Africa
1 November – 30 April
The southern African cyclone season occurs annually from November through April, with affected countries often experiencing several cyclones each season. The season is preempted by monsoon storms that typically occur between May and June or October and November. The cyclones regularly produce sustained wind speeds over 100km/hr. These severe weather events often cause fatalities and produce significant flooding, landslides and infrastructure damage, temporarily disrupting essential services such as electricity, water and medical services.
Potential Severity: Medium
Potential Impact Type: Disasters, Transportation
Presidential and 'political party' elections (Somaliland)
Somalia
13 November
Somaliland will hold presidential and “political parties/associations” elections on 13 November. The latter will determine which three political parties can contest elections for the next decade. Presidential candidates include incumbent President Muse Bihi of Kulmiye, Abdirahman Irro of Waddani and Faysal Ali Warabe of UCID. The elections will be close, but we assess Irro as the likely winner due to dissatisfaction with Bihi’s tenure, which has seen high unemployment, alleged increases in corruption and military setbacks in the Sool region. However, Bihi remains a credible contender, supported by progress on international recognition for Somaliland and some economic growth. Periodic unrest is likely in the Somaliland capital Hargeisa and other urban areas both before and after the election. Significant insecurity will persist around Las Anod (Sool) due to intermittent clashes between Somaliland forces and pro-Somalia unionist groups.
Potential Severity: High
Potential Impact Type: Conflict, Political
Parliamentary election
Sri Lanka
14 November
Parliamentary elections will be held in Sri Lanka on 14 November. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who was elected president on 23 Sep, called for a snap general election because his left-leaning coalition, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, has only 3 of 255 seats in this parliament. Dissanayake had previously stated that he would dissolve the parliament if he was elected president in order to effectively pursue his policies, likely including a renegotiation of the IMF bailout package, relaxing high taxes and utility tariffs, and stricter norms for foreign investment, given his history of opposition against Indian and foreign companies in Sri Lanka. Civil unrest risks may heighten on polling day and the following days.
Potential Severity: Medium
Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Political
G20 Leaders' Summit
Brazil
18 – 19 November
The G20 Leaders' Summit will be held in Rio de Janeiro. Heads of State and other government officials are expected to attend the summit, which is a culmination of various G20 working groups throughout the year. The forum is expected to foster discussions on climate change, sustainable infrastructure and finance. Previous G20 events have attracted large protests. Security at the venue will be very strict, with road closures potentially leading to disruption and delays to transport in the city.
Potential Severity: Medium
Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Legislative Elections
Guinea-Bissau
24 November
Despite threats from the PAI-Terra Ranka opposition coalition to boycott the vote, it will likely participate, aiming to prevent the ruling Movement for Democratic Alternation (MADEM) party of President Umaro Sissoco Embaló from gaining a majority in the National Assembly. Therefore, PAI-Terra Ranka is likely to win a majority of seats, as it did at the last elections in 2023. While those elections were peaceful with no significant security incidents, the possibility of clashes between rival supporters around polling stations cannot be entirely ruled out. Security forces are likely to be deployed in the capital Bissau and throughout the country near polling stations.
Potential Severity: Medium
Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Political
Local executive elections
Indonesia
27 November
Indonesia will, for the first time in its history, hold elections for all local executive positions (37 governors, 93 mayors and 415 district chiefs) on a single day. Previously, local elections were spread out in the four calendar years following a presidential election, which happens every five years. Civil unrest risks will likely be heightened during vote counting in December in regions where inter-group rivalries extend into elections, like the six Papua provinces and in ethnically divided areas. Such risks will also emerge when election losers challenge the results in January 2025 at the Constitutional Court in Jakarta. Violence is unlikely to occur before or on voting day, unless a campaign turns aggressive.
Potential Severity: Medium
Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Political
Northeast Monsoon season
Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Brunei, Indonesia, Timor-Leste
1 December – 31 March
The Northeast Monsoon season typically runs from December through March, starting with a wet phase (December to January) and ending with a dry phase (February to March), affecting countries in the Southeast Asia region. During this period, countries in the region experience prolonged heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas, which can result in typhoons, flooding (especially in areas with poor drainage systems or low-lying communities near floodplains) and landslides. Localised disruptions are likely to persist after a monsoon-related hazardous event, such as a landslide, as it could take some time for authorities to reach and service affected areas.
Potential Severity: Medium
Potential Impact Type: Disasters, Transportation
Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD COP16)
Saudi Arabia
2 December – 13 December
The sixteenth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP16) of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) will take place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia from 2 - 13 December under the banner "Our Land, Our Future". This marks the first time a UNCCD COP will be held in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region. The conference will take place at Riyadh's Almakan Mall, with a large number of government representatives, civil society groups, business stakeholders and experts expected to participate and coordinate international efforts to combat desertification, restore degraded land and mitigate the effects of droughts across the globe.
Security in Riyadh is expected to be heightened during COP16, and traffic diversions and security barriers are highly likely to be implemented near the conference location. In previous years, UNCCD COPs have seen minimal protests by activists groups compared to climate COPs which tend to experience large rallies or protests by environmental or other activist groups near the events. Given local restrictions on demonstrations, large public protests are unlikely to take place during COP16 in Saudi Arabia, however, there is a possibility authorities will permit small, symbolic gatherings by international activism and advocacy groups in Riyadh.
Potential Severity: Low
Potential Impact Type: Transportation
Christmas Day
Philippines
25 December
Christmas Day is one of the biggest Christian celebrations and falls on 25 December in the Gregorian calendar. Schools, most businesses, and government offices are closed. In previous years, Islamist militants have stepped up attacks during the Christmas period, particularly in the southern Mindanao region, targeting Christian events and Christian villages. These attacks often cause deaths and injuries and explosives are used in some cases besides firearms.
Potential Severity: Medium
Potential Impact Type: Terrorism, Transportation
General elections
Chad
29 December
Chad will hold local, provincial and legislative elections for the first time since 2011. The governing Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) currently has 134 out of 188 seats in the legislature and will be looking to consolidate its majority after Mahamat Idriss Déby won the presidential election in May. Déby ’s main rival – former prime minister (January-May 2024) Succès Masra – plans to field candidates for the opposition Transformers party. Although campaigns are expected to pass off peacefully, political rivalries are likely to trigger unrest in the capital Ndjamena and opposition strongholds in the south. Final results are expected on 3 February 2025.
Potential Severity: Medium
Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Political
Keen Sword military exercise
Japan
23 October – 1 November
The United States and Japanese militaries will hold the Keen Sword military exercise across Japan, with Australian and Canadian military units also participating. The military exercise aims to strengthen the combat readiness of the Japanese and U.S. militaries. Over 33,000 Japanese troops, 12,000 U.S. troops, 40 vessels and 370 aircraft are expected to take part in the exercise across U.S. and Japanese bases, 12 commercial airports and 20 commercial seaports from Hokkaido to Okinawa. Most of the exercise will take place on Kyushu Island, next to the East China Sea.
Potential Severity: Low
Potential Impact Type: Conflict
Extinction Rebellion Insurance Week of Action
United Kingdom
28 October – 2 November
Extinction Rebellion (XR) activists are due to target unspecified insurance companies throughout the United Kingdom from 28 October to 2 November to protest the role of the insurance industry in underwriting oil and gas projects. XR social media accounts indicate that actions on 28, 29, and 30 October will take place in the City of London, while actions on 31 October, 1 and 2 November will take place elsewhere in the country. This week of action is likely to combine online actions with in-person protests, which are likely to be highly disruptive. Major insurance firms with alleged links to the oil and gas industry will almost certainly be targeted by rallies and sit-ins outside their offices. Although protesters are likely to attempt to blockade entrances and interact with employees, violence is unlikely at these demonstrations. Further details on specific actions will be released closer to the date.
Potential Severity: Medium
Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Biodiversity (COP16)
Colombia
21 October - 1 November
The Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) will be held for the first time in Cali, Colombia, from 21 October to 1 November under the theme "Peace with Nature". The main conference events will be held at the Centro de Eventos Valle del Pacifico. Heads of state, other government officials, business leaders and observer organizations will gather to debate, negotiate, and review progress on biodiversity goals under the UN framework.
Security in Cali is expected to be heightened during COP16, and traffic diversions and security barriers are highly likely to be implemented near the conference locations. Protests are common throughout COP conferences as climate change and environmental activist groups, along with other civil society organisations, typically organise actions near conference locations and in member countries. Protests during COP events in Cali are expected to remain largely peaceful. Additionally, the dissidents of "Iván Mordisco," a faction of the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), announced a temporary ceasefire in Cali from 11 October to 6 November to coincide with the summit, which is expected to reduce offensive military operations against Colombian public forces in the area.
Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Biodiversity (COP16)
Colombia
21 October - 1 November
Security in Cali is expected to be heightened during COP16, and traffic diversions and security barriers are highly likely to be implemented near the conference locations. Protests are common throughout COP conferences as climate change and environmental activist groups, along with other civil society organisations, typically organise actions near conference locations and in member countries. Protests surrounding the COP events in Cali are expected to remain largely peaceful, but police will likely be deployed near demonstrations to manage crowds and ensure public safety.
BACK
MORE
Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Biodiversity (COP16)
Colombia
21 October - 1 November
The dissidents of "Iván Mordisco," a faction of the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), have announced a temporary ceasefire in Cali during the summit. The ceasefire is scheduled from 11 October to 6 November, coinciding with the event. This decision aims to reduce offensive military operations against Colombian public forces in the area. However, the group has stated it reserves the right to defend itself if necessary.
Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Municipal employee sit-in in Amman
Jordan
29 October
Municipal employees will gather again in Nakheel Square, downtown Amman to hold a sit-in and protest against recent decisions by management regarding the calculation of monthly salaries, bonuses, and allowances. Dozens are expected to attend. The protest is expected to proceed peacefully and traffic disruptions in the vicinity are likely.
Potential Severity: Low
Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Anniversary of 1979 US Embassy seizure
Iran
4 November
The "National Day Against Global Arrogance" is observed annually as a national holiday in Iran on 4 November to mark the seizure of the US Embassy by students as part of the Iranian revolution in 1979. On this day in 1979, students occupied the US Embassy and subsequently held its diplomatic staff hostage for 444 days, until their release was negotiated by the US government on 20 January 1981. 4 November also marks the day security forces under the former Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, opened fire on student protesters in the University of Tehran in 1978. The first Supreme Leader of Iran, Ruhollah Khomeini, touted 13th of Aban (4 November) as "Youmollah" or the "Day of God". Given precedent, thousands of people, including Islamists, religious groups and citizens loyal to the theocratic Shia regime will gather outside the former US Embassy in Tehran and in other major cities to commemorate the day, march in solidarity and condemn "arrogance" by western countries. Transport disruptions can be expected in public squares and near government buildings, especially in the capital.
Potential Severity: Low
Potential Impact Type: Transportation
General election
United States
5 November
Vice-President Kamala Harris will face former president Donald Trump (2017-21) in the presidential election. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives (lower house) and 34 of 100 seats in the Senate (upper house) are also on the ballot. In addition, eleven states (as well as American Samoa and Puerto Rico) will be voting for their governors.
The presidential election is likely to be closely contested and come down to tens of thousands of votes in a few key “swing states” (those where the electorate is evenly divided). Protests are likely to occur ahead of the election and in the period immediately following it, often triggered by separate issues such as the Israel-Hamas conflict but exacerbated by election-driven political tensions. However, significant election-related violence is unlikely.
Potential Severity: Low
Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Political
Nationwide public transport strike in Peru
Peru
23 October – 23 November
Union leaders from the Multimodal Transports Guild Union will hold a nationwide strike to demand the revision of an amendment to the Urban Terrorism Law and changes to Law 32109 on organized crime, due to inefficiency in fighting crime and to introduce better security measures. Protests associated with the strike will likely occur in Lima and other urban centers like Trujillo. Road blockades by truck and other drivers are possible and clashes between protesters and security forces cannot be ruled out.
Potential Severity: Medium
Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
Executive Summary
JUMP TO SECTION
War
Unrest
Terrorism
October 7: Year in Review + Regional Implications
US Elections
Future Events: Q4 2024
Crime and Security Risks in Mexico
Russia/Ukraine War
Unrest in APAC
Anti-Government Protests in Africa
Americas
Verified Unrest Events in Q3 2024
Q2
Q3
Europe
APAC
MENA
Africa
0
500
1000
1500
2500
2000
3000
3500
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
In the Americas, the United States witnessed the highest number of verified unrest events due to widespread protests by pro-Palestine groups. Venezuela also saw a significant increase in unrest, with instances of protest and civil unrest doubling from Q2 to Q3 due to opposition-led demonstrations against irregularities in the July presidential election.
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
4000
4500
In Africa, the numbers of government-related verified unrest events remained relatively similar quarter on quarter. For instance, In Kenya, protests over proposed tax increases, the high cost of living, unemployment and corruption persisted from Q2 through Q3.
In Europe, the number of unrest events fell 26% quarter-on-quarter, with lower numbers recorded in France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands. However, protests in the UK, Germany and Türkiye persisted at similar levels in Q2 and Q3, with many incidents linked to climate activism, the pro-Palestine cause and anti-immigration sentiment in the UK.
In the APAC region, Seerist recorded a 15% rise in unrest events, driven primarily by large-scale anti-government protests in Bangladesh and Indonesia.
TERRORISM
Americas
Verified Terrorism Events in Q3 2024
Q2
Q3
Europe
APAC
MENA
Africa
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
Terrorism incidents rose by 35% in Q3 in the MENA region, driven primarily by increased attacks from Hamas and Hizbullah militants in Israel.
Africa experienced a slight decrease in the number of terrorist events overall (by 11%), but saw two high-casualty attacks, in Burkina Faso and Mali, perpetrated by Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) militants. In Burkina Faso, JNIM militants killed around 600 people in Barsalogho, and in Mali JNIM temporarily seized control of Bamako International Airport and attacked a gendarmerie school, resulting in 77 deaths and 255 injuries. JNIM militants also launched two attacks against security forces in Togo and two in Benin, highlighting the spread of militant threats into coastal West African countries.
Attacks by Islamist extremist militants in Mali, Niger, Benin, Togo and Burkina Faso,
July-September 2024
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
In Europe, Seerist recorded eight attacks linked to Islamist extremist groups or suspected affiliates, including four in Germany (one at a festival in Solingen, North Rhine-Westphalia state) and two in France.
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
The APAC region also saw a rise in terrorism, largely due to a 46% increase in attacks in Pakistan, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces.
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
Heatmap of Verified Terrorism Events in Pakistan, Q3 2024
In the year after the 7 October 2023 attack by Palestinian Hamas militants on Israel, Seerist verified the following war and terrorism events:
3,400 in Israel
2,730+ in the Palestinian Territories
~ 4,440 in Lebanon
In April 2024, the exchange of unprecedented, direct attacks between Iran and Israel moved the two regional rivals’ longstanding shadow war into the open. The conflict between Israel and Lebanon has also escalated rapidly following Israel’s attack on Hizbullah pagers and hand-held radios on 17-18 September, and the assassination of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah on 27 September. Between 23 September and 11 October, Seerist verified over 1,400 Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Looking forward, the risk of a protracted conflict remains, as Israel continues to conduct intense military operations in Lebanon, including limited ground operations, and both Israel and Iran measure further responses to each others’ actions.
Hover to see change in Verified Events maps
From October 2023 through September 2024, Seerist verified more than 8,400 unrest events related to the Israel – Hamas/Hizbullah Conflicts in 203 countries and territories worldwide.
The recorded incidents include approximately 3,558 unrest events across the Middle East and North Africa, which account for 42% of the total global unrest activity.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
2023
2024
Global Verified Unrest Events Related to the Israel-Hamas/Hizbullah Conflicts (2023-24)
(Gaza and the West Bank)
Unrest Events
Moving Trendline
According to our strategic partner, Control Risks, the assassination attempts against Trump will have little impact on the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. The fallout from hurricanes Helene and Milton is likely to slightly bolster Harris’ election prospects through reducing voter turnout in affected Republican areas and affecting perceptions of federal government competence. The highly politicised nature of the attempted assassinations and the recent hurricanes will exacerbate election-related security threats in the pre- and post-election periods, including the harassment of election officials and post-election unrest.
SEERIST FUTURE EVENTS
Future Events are one-off or recurring events that could cause operational disruption, heightened security threats or result in significant political decisions. In the weeks ahead of the US elections, Seerist's Intelligence team continues to monitor for planned and potentially high-impact campaign and security events, including political rallies and protests.
Below are examples of Future Events users leveraged to ensure situational awareness and safety during the US election period.
JUL 15, 2024
JUL 15, 2024
AUG 19, 2024
AUG 19, 2024
AUG 20, 2024
SEP 10, 2024
SEP 18, 2024
NOV 5, 2024
Russia/Ukraine War
War events increased for the second consecutive quarter in both Ukraine and Russia. As reflected by Seerist's data, Russian forces stepped up engagements in the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kupyansk and Vuhledar sectors in Ukraine, intensified missile and drone attacks, and captured Vuhledar. Ukrainian forces launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region on 6 August, which, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, aimed at creating a buffer zone to protect Ukraine’s Sumy region. According to Control Risks analysts, the tactical goal of the operation was to force Russia to relocate some units away from Donetsk or Kharkiv. The incursion did not have a significant impact on frontline operations, with Russian shelling in Sumy and Chernihiv intensifying.
The US presidential election on 5 November is a key uncertainty in the conflict. If Donald Trump is elected, the White House would likely seek a deal that is not favourable to Ukraine. Control Risks analysts assess that the continuation of hostilities, including missile, drone and artillery attacks, remains the most likely scenario in the coming months, though the mud season (caused by heavy rains in October – November) will likely obstruct the movement of Russian mechanised brigades.
in-depth analysis
Q1
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Attacks by Quarter in Russia, 2024
Drone Attacks
Q2
Q3
Artillery Attacks
Unrest in APAC
in-depth analysis
The APAC region saw a rise in unrest in Q3. Anti-government protests were recorded in various countries, including the Philippines, Nepal and Japan, but the main drivers of the increase were Bangladesh and Indonesia.
The security environment in Bangladesh deteriorated significantly over Q3, with nearly 780 verified unrest and crime events recorded, of which 428 were anti-government or related to the Anti-Discrimination Students Movement. Student-led protests started in July 2024 against the High Court’s decision to reinstate a 30% reservation of government jobs for descendants of freedom fighters. The protests soon escalated into a nationwide violent uprising. On 4 August, at least 95 people were killed in civil unrest in Dhaka and other cities.
The protests led to the resignation of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina (2008-2024) on 5 August. On 8 August, Muhammad Yunus was sworn in as head of an interim government. Despite the return of relative political stability, labour groups – such as readymade garment and pharmaceutical workers – have staged protests to demand better wages or payment of arrears. These protests are likely to persist in the coming months, albeit at a smaller scale than the Q3 protests.
In Indonesia, anti-government protests broke out in August against the central government’s attempt to overturn a constitutional court ruling on age eligibility and electoral thresholds for the upcoming 27 November regional elections (Pilkada). In Q3, out of 158 verified demonstrations, nearly 50 targeted President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo or were related to Pilkada. Regional elections will take place across 37 provinces and 93 cities in a single day, the country's largest regional polling day so far. Seerist will monitor closely as security and civil unrest risks are likely to be heightened on election day and during vote counting in December, particularly in regions where inter-group rivalries extend into elections.
Bangladesh
Government
Law/Law Enforcement
Education
Media
Private Property
Manufacturing
Road
Agriculture
Retail
Aviation
Construction
Rail
Religious
Healthcare
View Heatmaps
View Pie Charts
Q2 2024 Keyna
Q2 2024 Nigeria
Q3 2024 Kenya
Q3 2024 Nigeria
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Anti-Government Protests in Africa
in-depth analysis
Anti-government protests took place in Africa throughout Q3. Protests in Kenya against proposed tax increases that began in Q2 continued into Q3 amid high levels of anti-government sentiment and dissatisfaction with the government’s track record on corruption. The demonstrations in Kenya inspired anti-corruption protests in Uganda. Meanwhile in Tanzania, increased restrictions on civil society groups ahead of local elections in November has driven minor incidents of unrest.
Protests in Kenya took place around government buildings and caused localised operational disruption, with clashes between protesters and state security forces, and looting reported in some cities including Nairobi. Seerist’s verified events from July captured instances of police firing teargas to disperse crowds who blocked the outer road leading to Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (NBO) in Nairobi. Protests were recorded in other cities including Mombasa, Kisii, Kisumu and Migori. In Kenya, budget shortfalls will drive the government to implement new taxes, likely sustaining the threat of further occasional unrest.
Hover to see change in Verified Events maps
Crime and Security Risk in Mexico
in-depth analysis
Claudia Sheinbaum took office as the 66th president of Mexico on 1 October 2024. Among the key issues Sheinbaum inherited from her predecessor, Andres Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), are record-high insecurity levels from the most violent presidential term in modern Mexican history, with nearly 200,000 murders in six years. According to Seerist data, verified crime events from Q2 through Q3 remained elevated, with nearly 450 crime incidents recorded in Q3 alone, reflecting similar levels of crime during the same period in 2023*.
Approximately 73% of all crime events verified in Q3 were perpetrated by organized criminal groups (OCGs). These groups continue to use firearms as their predominant attack type, but Seerist also recorded the use of drones rigged with explosives, IEDs and hijackings on at least 20 separate occasions, underscoring OGCs’ increasing capabilities. Despite prominent arrests of cartel leaders and security operations in Q3, the country’s security conditions continued to deteriorate. For instance, following the high-profile arrest of Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael Zambada (alias “El Mayo”) on 25 July, violence surged in the northern state of Sinaloa, leading to persistent clashes and roadblocks and putting Mexico’s north-western region on high alert. In southern Mexico, turf wars in Tabasco and Chiapas states over the control of illicit activities and routes near the Guatemalan border have intensified, prompting Seerist to raise Tabasco’s security risk ratings from MEDIUM to HIGH and Chiapas’s kidnapping risk rating from MEDIUM to HIGH.
High Severity Level
Sinaloa
executive summary
executive summary
executive summary
MENA
Need MENA content here. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua.
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
MENA
69%
10%
6%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
Government
Military
Law enforcement/Legal
Private Property
Oil + Gas
Education
Power
Healthcare
Telecommunications
Agriculture
45%
22%
11%
6%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
Government
Law Enforcement/Legal
Education
Healthcare
Power
Road
Private Property
Agriculture
Retail
Manufacturing
59%
13%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
Government
Law Enforcement/Legal
Military
Aviation
Road
Manufacturing
Healthcare
Oil + Gas
Private Property
Construction
50%
13%
13%
7%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
Government
Law Enforcement/Legal
Private Property
Education
Healthcare
Road
Retail
Military
Oil + Gas
Power
54%
12%
10%
8%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
Government
Law Enforcement/Legal
Road
Education
Oil + Gas
Healthcare
Retail
Aviation
Power
Agriculture
Q3 Security Risk Ratings
Low
Medium
High
65
16
18
31
Chiapas
86
30
41
15
Total
Q1
Q2
Q3
Tabasco
87
7
39
41
Nuevo León
111
45
30
36
Guerrero
80
33
21
26
Michoacán
82
29
19
34
Unrest Events by Sector
33%
30%
20%
5%
4%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
60%
15%
5%
5%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
In-Depth Analysis
Crime and Security Risks in Mexico
Russia/Ukraine War
Unrest in APAC
Anti-Government Protests in Africa
BOOK A DEMO
In-Depth Analysis
JUMP TO SECTION
Executive Summary
War
Unrest
Terrorism
October 7: Year in Review + Regional Implications
US Elections
Future Events: Q4 2024
Crime and Security Risks in Mexico
In-Depth Analysis
Russia/Ukraine War
Unrest in APAC
Anti-Government Protests in Africa
JUMP TO SECTION
Executive Summary
War
Unrest
Terrorism
October 7: Year in Review + Regional Implications
US Elections
Future Events: Q4 2024
Crime and Security Risks in Mexico
In-Depth Analysis
Russia/Ukraine War
Unrest in APAC
Anti-Government Protests in Africa
JUMP TO SECTION
Executive Summary
War
Unrest
Terrorism
October 7: Year in Review + Regional Implications
US Elections
Future Events: Q4 2024
Crime and Security Risks in Mexico
In-Depth Analysis
Russia/Ukraine War
Unrest in APAC
Anti-Government Protests in Africa
JUMP TO SECTION
Executive Summary
War
Unrest
Terrorism
October 7: Year in Review + Regional Implications
US Elections
Future Events: Q4 2024
Crime and Security Risks in Mexico
In-Depth Analysis
Russia/Ukraine War
Unrest in APAC
Anti-Government Protests in Africa
JUMP TO SECTION
Executive Summary
War
Unrest
Terrorism
October 7: Year in Review + Regional Implications
US Elections
What to Watch in Q4
Crime and Security Risks in Mexico
In-depth Analysis
Russia/Ukraine War
Unrest in APAC
Anti-government Protests in Africa
JUMP TO SECTION
Executive Summary
War
Unrest
Terrorism
October 7: Year in Review + Regional Implications
US Elections
Future Events: Q4 2024
Crime and Security Risks in Mexico
In-Depth Analysis
Russia/Ukraine War
Unrest in APAC
Anti-Government Protests in Africa
JUMP TO SECTION
Executive Summary
War
Unrest
Terrorism
October 7: Year in Review + Regional Implications
US Elections
Future Events: Q4 2024
Crime and Security Risks in Mexico
In-Depth Analysis
Russia/Ukraine War
Unrest in APAC
Anti-Government Protests in Africa
JUMP TO SECTION
Executive Summary
War
Unrest
Terrorism
October 7: Year in Review + Regional Implications
US Elections
Future Events: Q4 2024
Crime and Security Risks in Mexico
In-Depth Analysis
Russia/Ukraine War
Unrest in APAC
Anti-Government Protests in Africa
JUMP TO SECTION
Executive Summary
War
Unrest
Terrorism
October 7: Year in Review + Regional Implications
US Elections
Future Events: Q4 2024
Crime and Security Risks in Mexico
In-Depth Analysis
Russia/Ukraine War
Unrest in APAC
Anti-Government Protests in Africa
Americas Unrest Incidents: Targeted Sectors, Q3 2024
Africa Unrest Incidents:
Targeted Sectors, Q3 2024
Europe Unrest Incidents:
Targeted Sectors, Q3 2024
APAC Unrest Incidents:
Targeted Sectors, Q3 2024
MENA Unrest Incidents:
Targeted Sectors, Q3 2024
Unrest Events: Targeted Sectors, Q3 2024
Indonesia
The Geographical Distribution of Anti-Government Protests, July–September 2024
Bangladesh
Indonesia
Meanwhile, in Nigeria, protests driven by socioeconomic grievances and anti-government sentiment took place throughout Q3. Nigeria recorded a 40% increase in verified unrest incidents related to anti-government sentiment in Q3 compared to Q2. Incidents include security forces using teargas to disperse protests as well as cases of looting. For instance, on 3 August, police fired teargas to disperse crowds at the Moshood Abiola National Stadium in Abuja, injuring several people. Similar protests took place in cities such as Port Harcourt, Lagos, Kaduna and Kano. Further protests are likely given deep-rooted frustrations over socioeconomic challenges, but are likely to be relatively small-scale and short-lived, though there remains a low risk that protests escalate rapidly and abruptly.
Anti-Government Protests in Kenya, Q2–Q3
Anti-Government Protests in Nigeria, Q2–Q3
KENYA Q2
KENYA Q3
NIGERIA Q2
NIGERIA Q3
Request a demo
Request a demo to see how Seerist can support your security and intelligence efforts.
Explore Seerist Today
65
Sinaloa
OCT 27, 2024
OCT 27, 2024
OCT 27, 2024
NOV 2, 2024
VIEW MORE DETAILS
VIEW MORE DETAILS
VIEW MORE DETAILS
VIEW MORE DETAILS
VIEW MORE DETAILS
VIEW MORE DETAILS
VIEW MORE DETAILS
VIEW MORE DETAILS
VIEW MORE DETAILS
VIEW MORE DETAILS
VIEW MORE DETAILS
VIEW MORE DETAILS
111
Nuevo León
82
Michoacán
87
Tabasco
80
Guerrero
86
Chiapas
Click each state to view events by quarter.
Security conditions in Mexico will remain challenging through the remainder of 2024, posing heightened security risks for businesses. This trend will be driven by Congress’ approval of a reform that transferred control of the National Guard to the Defence Ministry (Sedena). This will further militarise security strategy. In the longer term, this raises concerns that a militarised National Guard may lack the political will to combat organized crime, amid accusations of military ties to criminal groups. Sheinbaum’s administration faces significant challenges due to the increasing penetration of OCGs into legal markets and politics.
2024 Verified Crime Events
*Seerist tracks high-impact, violent crime events which are primarily perpetrated by non-state actors and directly target or indirectly impact commercial personnel and assets
SEE A DEMO!
Explore Seerist's capabilities now.
Act today. Prevail tomorrow.
Government
Law/Law Enforcement
Education
Media
Private Property
Manufacturing
Americas
Europe
MENA
Asia
Africa
Americas
Europe
MENA
Asia
Africa
Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Biodiversity (COP16) Country: Colombia Date: 21 October - 1 November
The Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) will be held for the first time in Cali, Colombia, from 21 October to 1 November under the theme "Peace with Nature". The main conference events will be held at the Centro de Eventos Valle del Pacifico and will include several other events such as the Eleventh meeting of the Parties to the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety (CP-MOP-11) and the Fifth meeting of the Parties to the Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing of the Benefits Arising from their Utilization (NP-MOP-5). Heads of state, other government officials, business leaders and observer organizations will gather to debate, negotiate, and review progress on biodiversity goals under the UN framework.
Security in Cali is expected to be heightened during COP16, and traffic diversions and security barriers are highly likely to be implemented near the conference locations. Protests are common throughout COP conferences as climate change and environmental activist groups, along with other civil society organisations, typically organise actions near conference locations and in member countries. Protests surrounding the COP events in Cali are expected to remain largely peaceful, but police will likely be deployed near demonstrations to manage crowds and ensure public safety.
The dissidents of "Iván Mordisco," a faction of the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), have announced a temporary ceasefire in Cali during the summit. The ceasefire is scheduled from 11 October to 6 November, coinciding with the event. This decision aims to reduce offensive military operations against Colombian public forces in the area. However, the group has stated it reserves the right to defend itself if necessary.
Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Nationwide transportation strike Country: Argentina Date: 30 October
A group of seven transportation unions, including the Federation of Taxi drivers, the Workers Association of the Automotive Transport Industry (AOITA) and the Maritime Punters' Union (SEAMARA), will hold a nationwide 24-hour general strike on 30 October to demand an increase in wages. The groups initially planned to strike on 17 October, but the action was postponed due to ongoing negotiations with the government and other disputes between individual transportation unions and the government. The action will primarily affect rail, maritime and air transport across the country, however, there is still a potential for the bus drivers union to join the strike which would disrupt public bus routes throughout the day. Transport and operational disruptions can be expected across passenger and cargo trains, passenger and commercial shipping and at airports. There is a realistic possibility that striking transportation workers will stage protests on 30 October in Buenos Aires and other cities, at major airports like the Buenos Aires Ezeiza Airport (EZE) and at ports nationwide. Demonstrations are likely to remain peaceful, but will likely cause further disruption to vehicular traffic.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Women's March to the White House, Washington DC Country: United States Date: 2 November
Women's March activists are due to rally and march to the White House in Washington DC to protest in support of issues relating to feminism and racial equality in the United States. Marches will occur throughout the country, but Washington DC's protest will almost certainly be the largest. This demonstration is likely to be attended by tens of thousands of people and is highly likely to cause sustained traffic disruption in the vicinity of the White House throughout the day. Violence is highly unlikely at this protest. There will be a significantly heightened security presence in the area for the duration of the rally to control crowds and ensure public safety. Further details, including the exact timing and route of the march, will be released closer to the date.
Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
General election Country: United States Date: 5 November
Vice-President Kamala Harris will face former president Donald Trump (2017-21) in the presidential election. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives (lower house) and 34 of 100 seats in the Senate (upper house) are also on the ballot. In addition, eleven states (as well as American Samoa and Puerto Rico) will be voting for their governors. The most likely outcome will see Harris claim the presidency, the Democrats win a narrow majority in the House of Representatives (lower house) and the Republicans obtaining a narrow majority in the Senate (upper house). However, the presidential election is likely to be closely contested and come down to tens of thousands of votes in a few key “swing states” (those where the electorate is evenly divided). Protests are likely to occur ahead of the election and in the period immediately following it, often triggered by separate issues such as the Israel-Hamas conflict but exacerbated by election-driven political tensions. However, significant election-related violence is unlikely.
Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Political
Nationwide public transport strike in Peru Country: Peru Date: 23 October - 23 November
Union leaders from the Multimodal Transports Guild Union will hold a nationwide strike to demand the revision of an amendment to the Urban Terrorism Law and changes to Law 32109 on organized crime, due to inefficiency in fighting crime and to introduce better security measures. Protests associated with the strike will likely occur in Lima and other urban centers like Trujillo. Road blockades by truck and other drivers are possible and clashes between protesters and security forces cannot be ruled out.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
G20 Leaders' Summit Country: Brazil Date: 18 – 19 November
The G20 Leaders' Summit will be held in Rio de Janeiro. Heads of State and other government officials are expected to attend the summit, which is a culmination of various G20 working groups throughout the year. The forum is expected to foster discussions on climate change, sustainable infrastructure and finance. Previous G20 events have attracted large protests. Security at the venue will be very strict, with road closures potentially leading to disruption and delays to transport in the city.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Americas
Europe
MENA
Asia
Africa
Extinction Rebellion Insurance Week of Action Country: United Kingdom Date: 28 October – 2 November
Extinction Rebellion (XR) activists are due to target unspecified insurance companies throughout the United Kingdom from 28 October to 2 November to protest the role of the insurance industry in underwriting oil and gas projects. XR social media accounts indicate that actions on 28, 29, and 30 October will take place in the City of London, while actions on 31 October, 1 and 2 November will take place elsewhere in the country. This week of action is likely to combine online actions with in-person protests, which are likely to be highly disruptive. Major insurance firms with alleged links to the oil and gas industry will almost certainly be targeted by rallies and sit-ins outside their offices. Although protesters are likely to attempt to blockade entrances and interact with employees, violence is unlikely at these demonstrations. Further details on specific actions will be released closer to the date.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
March against the Labour Party in Parliament Square, London Country: United Kingdom Date: 2 November
Supporters of a coalition of environmentalist and pro-Palestine groups are due to rally in Parliament Square, London, from 14:00 local time to protest Labour Party welfare and foreign policies, particularly those related to welfare benefits and the supply of weaponry to Israel. The demonstration is likely to be attended by hundreds of activists and will almost certainly cause transport disruption in Parliament Square. The groups that have announced their intent to participate in the protest often use vandalism as a method of protest; there is a realistic possibility that these groups will seek to vandalise businesses and government offices in the area during the action. Additionally, there is a realistic possibility of isolated violent clashes between protesters and police during the demonstration.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Land transportation sector strike Country: Spain Date: 28 October – 23 December
Unionized road transportation sector workers have called for a series of strikes on 28 October, 11, 28 and 29 November, as well as on 5, 9 and 23 December to demand improved working conditions and early retirement options. The stoppages would affect road freight transport, urban public transport by bus, road passenger transport and medical transport. The UGT and CCOO unions have warned that if an agreement is not reached by 23 December the strike will become indefinite. Transportation, shipping and delivery disruptions should be expected during the strikes.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Americas
Europe
MENA
Asia
Africa
Keen Sword military exercise Country: Japan Date: 23 October – 1 November
The United States and Japanese militaries will hold the Keen Sword military exercise across Japan, with Australian and Canadian military units also participating. The military exercise aims to strengthen the combat readiness of the Japanese and U.S. militaries. Over 33,000 Japanese troops, 12,000 U.S. troops, 40 vessels and 370 aircraft are expected to take part in the exercise across U.S. and Japanese bases, 12 commercial airports and 20 commercial seaports from Hokkaido to Okinawa. Most of the exercise will take place on Kyushu Island, next to the East China Sea.
Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Conflict
Parliamentary election Country: Sri Lanka Date: 14 November
Parliamentary elections will be held in Sri Lanka on 14 November. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who was elected president on 23 Sep, called for a snap general election because his left-leaning coalition, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, has only 3 of 255 seats in this parliament. Dissanayake had previously stated that he would dissolve the parliament if he was elected president in order to effectively pursue his policies, likely including a renegotiation of the IMF bailout package, relaxing high taxes and utility tariffs, and stricter norms for foreign investment, given his history of opposition against Indian and foreign companies in Sri Lanka. Civil unrest risks may heighten on polling day and the following days.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Political
Local executive elections Country: Indonesia Date: 27 November
Indonesia will, for the first time in its history, hold elections for all local executive positions (37 governors, 93 mayors and 415 district chiefs) on a single day. Previously, local elections were spread out in the four calendar years following a presidential election, which happens every five years. Civil unrest risks will likely be heightened during vote counting in December in regions where inter-group rivalries extend into elections, like the six Papua provinces and in ethnically divided areas. Such risks will also emerge when election losers challenge the results in January 2025 at the Constitutional Court in Jakarta. Violence is unlikely to occur before or on voting day, unless a campaign turns aggressive.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Political
Northeast Monsoon season Country: Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Brunei, Indonesia, Timor-Leste Date: 1 December – 31 March 2025
The Northeast Monsoon season typically runs from December through March, starting with a wet phase (December to January) and ending with a dry phase (February to March), affecting countries in the Southeast Asia region. During this period, countries in the region experience prolonged heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas, which can result in typhoons, flooding (especially in areas with poor drainage systems or low-lying communities near floodplains) and landslides. Localised disruptions are likely to persist after a monsoon-related hazardous event, such as a landslide, as it could take some time for authorities to reach and service affected areas.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Disasters, Transportation
Christmas Day Country: Philippines Date: 25 December
Christmas Day is one of the biggest Christian celebrations and falls on 25 December in the Gregorian calendar. Schools, most businesses, and government offices are closed. In previous years, Islamist militants have stepped up attacks during the Christmas period, particularly in the southern Mindanao region, targeting Christian events and Christian villages. These attacks often cause deaths and injuries and explosives are used in some cases besides firearms.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Terrorism, Transportation
Americas
Europe
MENA
Asia
Africa
National Day of Mourning and Memorial on Mount Herzl to Commemorate 7 October Attack Country: Israel Date: 27 October The Israeli government declared a second day of national mourning to commemorate the military and civilian victims of the 7 October 2023 attacks by Hamas on the corresponding Hebrew date, 25 Tishrei (27 October). The Department of Commemorate and Heritage Families at the Ministry of Defense will hold two state memorial ceremonies at 11:00 and 16:00 (local time) at the State Memorial Hall on Mount Herzl. The events will commemorate the memory of the soldiers and civilians who died on 7 October 2023 and the resultant Israel-Hamas war. The Israeli President, Prime Minister, Minister of Defense, and Chief of Staff will be in attendance and address the audience.
Due to ongoing political and social tensions in Israel over the hostage situation in Gaza and demands for a ceasefire agreement to secure their release, there is a potential for protests to break out in nearby Jerusalem and other cities in conjunction with memorial events, which could lead to transport disruptions and road closures as well as possible confrontations between protesters and security forces, as well as counter-protests. There remains aa potential for terrorist or extremist elements to attempt to target Israeli civilians and security forces on the day amid the ongoing conflict across Israel and the Palestinian Territories.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation, Terrorism, Conflict
Cyrus the Great Day Country: Iran Date: 28 October
Cyrus the Great Day is an unofficial holiday in Iran, observed annually to mark the legacy of Cyrus II of Persia who founded the Achaemenid Empire in the 6th century BCE. This day recognises Cyrus' pivotal role in shaping the empire and his lasting influence on history and governance. It is observed on the 7th of Aban in the Iranian Solar Hijri calendar, typically falling between 28 and 31 October in the Gregorian calendar. Given the non-religious and nationalistic significance of the day, there is a potential for protests against the theocratic Shia regime to occur in major cities, including in non-Farsi speaking provinces, and clashes between protesters and security forces. Gatherings may also take place near the Tomb of Cyrus the Great in Pasargad, Fars province, although the government has restricted access to the site on this day in previous years to deter protests. Some businesses and schools will be closed to commemorate the day and transport disruptions remain likely in the vicinity of anniversary-associated protests and unrest.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD COP16) Country: Saudi Arabia Date: 2 December – 13 December
The sixteenth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP16) of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) will take place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia from 2 - 13 December under the banner "Our Land, Our Future". This marks the first time a UNCCD COP will be held in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region. The conference will take place at Riyadh's Almakan Mall, with a large number of government representatives, civil society groups, business stakeholders and experts expected to participate and coordinate international efforts to combat desertification, restore degraded land and mitigate the effects of droughts across the globe.
Security in Riyadh is expected to be heightened during COP16, and traffic diversions and security barriers are highly likely to be implemented near the conference location. In previous years, UNCCD COPs have seen minimal protests by activists groups compared to climate COPs which tend to experience large rallies or protests by environmental or other activist groups near the events. Given local restrictions on demonstrations, large public protests are unlikely to take place during COP16 in Saudi Arabia, however, there is a possibility authorities will permit small, symbolic gatherings by international activism and advocacy groups in Riyadh.
Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Transportation
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC