Anti-government Generation Z Protests in Asia
in-depth analysis
In the second half of Q3 2025, Gen Z–led anti-government movements emerged in Indonesia, Nepal and Timor-Leste – a trend that has gained momentum since a student-led movement ousted former Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024. Despite different triggers, protests in each country evolved into broader anti-government movements demanding reform.
Heatmap of verified anti-government unrest events across Indonesia between 27 August and 22 September, with most reported events concentrated on Java.
In Indonesia, a protest in Central Jakarta on 28 August against a benefits package for lawmakers – which included an IDR 50m (USD 3,000) housing allowance – escalated into nationwide violent unrest after a police vehicle fatally struck a motorcycle taxi driver. The unrest evolved into anti-government and anti-police sentiment, led by various student groups. Violence peaked on 29-31 August when looting and arson targeted several ministers’ residences, House of Representatives buildings, and government facilities in cities including Jakarta, Bandung, Makassar and Surabaya. The unrest led to cabinet reshuffles and the rollback of several parliamentary benefits.
In Nepal, a nationwide protest on 8 September against a government attempt to ban 26 social media platforms intensified into two days of violence fueled by public frustration over corruption, nepotism and rising unemployment. Clashes between thousands of young protesters and security forces near the federal parliament in Kathmandu on 8 September left at least 17 dead and more than 145 injured.
Heatmap of verified anti-government unrest events across Nepal between 8 and 10 September. Click on green buttons for Verified Event details.
Drone and Aircraft Violations of NATO Airspace
in-depth analysis
Q3 2025 saw several Russian incursions into the airspace of European countries. Poland on 9-10 September detected 21 drones flying into its territory from Ukraine and intercepted three in a joint operation with NATO command. The incursion took place amid a Russian drone and missile attack against Ukraine and forced the closure of airports in Warsaw (Chopin and Modlin airports), Rzeszów and Lublin. The drones were identified as Russian kamikaze Iran-made Shahed-136 drones. Poland invoked NATO’s Article 4 to call for a consultation with the alliance, and ministers of several countries stated that they believed the incursion to have been intentional. The incident was followed on 13 September by a Russian drone incursion into Romanian airspace, the eleventh since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Three Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes on 19 September. Estonian officials stated that this was the fourth such violation by Russia in 2025. Poland later that day reported a low Russian flyby over the Petrobaltic offshore drilling platform.
Five Danish airports on 25 September closed overnight after coordinated drone incursions. This followed the closure of Kastrup (Copenhagen) and Gardemoen (Oslo, Norway) airports on 22-23 September. The coordination of the incidents, size of the drones and systematic nature of the incidents implies the involvement of a state actor, with Russian involvement likely.
The incidents are likely to be deliberate probing of NATO members’ response capacities, intended to test and potentially intimidate NATO and EU states. Russia’s hybrid warfare against Europe has intensified significantly since 2022 in response to support for Ukraine. With little prospect of an end to that war, similar hybrid warfare incidents are likely. However, NATO will likely continue to seek to minimize the risk of escalation with Russia, while Russia remains unlikely to attempt deliberate strikes on non-Ukrainian targets, especially in NATO countries.
Heatmap of drone fragments recovered across Poland, Q3 2025
Drone incursions at Danish and Norwegian airports, September 2025
Verified Airspace Violations (War Events) in Denmark, Norway,
Poland, Romania and Estonia, Q3 2025
Jul 1
Jul 8
Jul 15
Jul 22
Jul 29
Aug 5
Aug 12
Aug 19
Aug 26
Sep 2
Sep 9
Sep 16
Sep 23
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18
Several government buildings, including parliament and the supreme court, politicians’ residences and party offices were torched, while supermarkets, hotels and bank branches were looted or damaged. The violence prompted the resignation of prime minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli and caused an estimated USD 22.5bn of economic losses.
Arson
65%
Arson and Vandalism
12%
Protest only
10%
Vandalism
8%
Arson, Vandalism, and Looting
5%
The majority of the student-led anti-government protests involved arson attacks on 9 September.
Student protests in East Timor capital Dili on 16 September forced the government to backtrack on plans to buy new cars for 65 MPs, while the Philippines has also seen anti-corruption protests. Economic hardship, youth unemployment and frustration at inequality, nepotism and corruption have been key drivers across the region. While initial government responses have reduced tensions, further unrest will remain a threat if governments fail to respond to demands for wider change.
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5
10
15
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25
30
Aug 29
Aug 31
Aug 27
Sep 2
Sep 4
Sep 8
Sep 12
Sep 16
Sep 6
Sep 10
Sep 14
Sep 18
Sep 20
Sep 22
Verified Anti-government Unrest Events across Indonesia, 27 August – 22 September
Click yellow button to view Verified Event and how the student-led movement intensified and evolved over time.
The Trigger
The Escalation
The Peak
The De-Escalation
The Demands
Germany
9 September
In Berlin-Johannisthal, left-wing activists claimed responsibility for an arson attack on two high-voltage pylons, affecting around 50,000 households and businesses; transport was also affected. Their target was allegedly the Adlershof Technology Park.
52.4367,13.5039
Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
United Kingdom
3 August
In Canary Wharf, London, dozens of anti-immigration protesters gathered outside a hotel housing asylum seekers then attempted to storm the hotel, while setting off flares. Police suppressed the protest and arrested one person.
51.5019, -0.0234
Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
Poland
10 September
In Wyryki-Wola, Lublin province, a missile fired by an F-16 fighter jet fell on a residential building, damaging the roof but causing no injuries. Polish air forces were shooting down Russian drones that had violated Polish airspace.
51.5617, 23.3657
Location precision: City
Ukraine
28 September
In Kyiv, a missile fragment damaged the consular section of the Embassy of Poland, according to Polish officials; no casualties were reported.
50.4476, 30.5051 Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
Russia
12 September
At Primorsk Port, Leningrad region, fires broke out at a vessel and an oil pumping station amid reports of a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack.
60.3638, 28.6097
Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
Timor-Leste
15 September
Outside the National University of Timor-Leste, Dili, students from four universities protested at the perks of members of parliament; they were dispersed with tear gas by police after they threw stones and other objects at the Timorese National Parliament.
-8.5555, 125.5791
Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
Outside Shahwani Stadium, Quetta, Balochistan, an explosion was reported after a Balochistan National Party rally, leaving at least 15 people dead and 38 others injured. Social media reports indicate that the explosion was caused by a suicide bomber.
30.1322, 66.9765 Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
Pakistan
2 September
At Supreme Court Gardens, Perth, Western Australia, around 10,000 people joined an anti-immigration rally led by far-right groups, marching to Parliament House; police arrested three people.
-31.9519, 115.8473 Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
Australia
31 August
Philippines
21 September
At Ayala Bridge, Manila, hundreds of protesters from an anti-corruption protest clashed with police, throwing rocks and Molotov cocktails, reportedly injuring 70 police officers. Police fired tear gas and water cannon, and made 49 arrests.
14.5903, 120.9858 Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
Thailand-Cambodia
18 September
In disputed Nong Ya Kaew, Sa Kaeo Province, Thai security forces fired pellet guns and tear gas at Cambodian civilians protesting the border fencing, injuring 23; several Thai security personnel were also injured in the ensuing clashes.
13.5642, 102.3699 Location precision: City
United States
10 September
In Orem, Utah, conservative political figure and author Charlie Kirk was shot during a university student Q&A event and later died at a hospital; a person of interest was apprehended.
40.2787, -111.7153 Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
United States
7 July
In McAllen, Texas, a man in tactical gear armed with a rifle opened fire on border patrol agents as they arrived at a US Border Patrol facility; the officers returned fire, killing the assailant; one officer was injured.
26.1525, -98.2651 Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
United States
24 September
In Dallas, Texas, an unidentified assailant opened fire at an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facility off I-35E, injuring three people; the assailant died of self-inflicted wounds.
32.8268, -96.8709
Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
Chile
28 July
In Valparaíso, unidentified attackers broke into a bank's vault by flame cutting, stealing around CLP 7bn (USD 7.2m).
-33.0403, -71.8271
Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
Brazil
18 August
In Governador Island, Rio de Janeiro City, organized criminals hijacked 12 public transport buses and set fire to one in several road blockades and shootings after a security operation.
-22.8055, -43.2134
Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
Colombia
21 August
On Carrera 8, outside Marco Fidel Suárez Air Base in Cali, Valle del Cauca, a car bomb was detonated by alleged armed groups affiliated with local drug cartels; at least five people were killed and at least 36 others injured.
3.4528, -76.4969
Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
Angola
28 July
In Luanda, destruction of property and robberies at businesses were reported in various areas during a taxi drivers' strike. Clashes with police, who used tear gas and live ammunition to disperse the protesters, left 29 dead and around 250 injured.
8.8586, 13.2145
Location precision: City
Sudan
6 August
At Nyala Airport (UYL), South Darfur state, Sudanese forces struck a landing Emirati cargo plane carrying at least 40 Colombian mercenaries, killing all the crew and destroying the aircraft.
12.0537, 24.9562
Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
Côte d'Ivoire
16 August
At Fikigayo Square, Yopougon, Abidjan, former president Laurent Gbagbo led thousands of people in a rally against the exclusion of political parties in the upcoming elections and President Alassane Ouattara's bid for a fourth term.
5.3502, -4.0726
Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
Burkina Faso
20 August
In Foutouri, Komandjoari, Est region, local media reports said that around 600 Islamist insurgents attacked a military base but were repelled, and a drone with munitions was shot down. Around 100 militants were killed, and 100 others injured.
12.7229, 1.0504
Location precision: City
Congo (DRC)
9 September
In Ntoyo, Lubero, North Kivu province, around 40 heavily armed Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels killed at least 72 people attending a mourning ceremony; most of them were killed with machetes.
0.3468, 28.8019
Location precision: City
Palestinian Territories
7 July
In Beit Hanoun, Khan Younis, Gaza Strip, Al-Qassam Brigades claimed to have targeted Israeli soldiers and a military vehicle with remotely detonated explosives during an ambush; at least five people were killed and 14 others injured.
31.5384, 34.5367
Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
Lebanon
7 August
Near Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY), Hizbullah supporters blocked airport the road to protest against the government's decision to disarm the group.
33.8515, 35.4936
Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
Yemen
28 August
In Sanaa, Israeli warplanes struck a compound where senior Houthi ministers had gathered; the airstrikes killed Houthi Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rawahi and several other ministers. 15.3545, 44.2064
Location precision: City
Syria
30 August
In Al-Maqwas neighborhood, Suwayda, Suwayda governorate, more than 30 people were killed and 100 injured in armed clashes between Druze and Bedouin groups; sources claim that the clashes started after a series of kidnappings. 32.7079, 36.5955
Location precision: Street/Neighborhood
Qatar
9 September
In Katara district, Doha, Israeli security forces conducted airstrikes targeting Hamas members allegedly meeting to discuss a US-proposed ceasefire; six Hamas members were killed, one Qatari Internal Security Force member was killed and others injured. 25.3574, 51.5094
Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
Israel
4 May
Near Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV), Tel Aviv, a missile reportedly launched from Yemen landed near the airport, injuring at least six people. 32.00050427, 34.87052322
Location precision: Asset/Building
Syria
22 June
In the Doueila neighborhood of Damascus, a suicide bomber opened fire at a Christian church before detonating himself, leaving at least 20 people dead and wounded. 33.5034, 36.3201
Location precision: Asset/Building
Qatar
22 June
Near Doha, an Iranian missile attack targeted the Al Udeid US military base; the missile was intercepted according to the Qatari Ministry of Defense, causing no casualties. 25.1188, 51.3188
Location precision: Asset/Building
Notable Verified Events Q3
Click on an event below for more details.
Crime
Terrorism
Unrest
War
NEXT SECTION
"No Kings" Protests United States
18 October
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit South Korea
21 October – 1 November
47th ASEAN Summit Malaysia 26-28 October
Presidential Election Côte d'Ivoire
25 October
Parliamentary Elections Netherlands 29 October
Republika Srpska Presidential Election Bosnia and Herzegovina 23 November
Maaveerar Naal Commemorations Sri Lanka 27 November
US-Australia Bilateral Meeting United States
20 October
Presidential and Legislative Elections Tanzania 28 October
East African Anti-Corruption Summit Uganda 17-21 November
COP30 Brazil 10-21 November
Anniversary of the 2019 “Bloody November” Protest Iran 15 November
General Elections Chile 16 November
G20 Leaders’ Summit South Africa 22-23 November
Parliamentary Elections Iraq 11 November
October 2025
Low
Medium
High
November 2025
December 2025
"No Kings" Protests
United States
18 October A coalition of social justice organizations operating under the banner "No Kings" has called for a second nationwide demonstration against President Donald Trump’s administration and policies. Protests will be held at approximately 2,000 locations nationwide, from courthouse steps to community parks. Activists may engage in disruption, including blocking major roads. Heightened security measures, including increased police presence and possible road closures, are possible.
Region: Americas
Category: Security; Protest Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
US-Australia Bilateral Meeting United States 20 October
US President Donald Trump will host Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for their first formal meeting since the Australian election, focusing on the AUKUS pact for nuclear-powered submarines in the Indo-Pacific. The agenda includes the Pentagon AUKUS review, defense cooperation and Australia’s investments in US shipbuilding. Additional topics include Australia's COP31 bid with Pacific nations, child social media bans, and Palestinian statehood. The outcome of the meeting could shape regional alliances and submarine timelines.
Region: Americas
Category: Geopolitical; Bilateral meeting Potential Impact type: Transportation
Presidential Election Côte d'Ivoire 25 October
President Alassane Ouattara of the governing Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) party is seeking a fourth term in office. Opposition parties are likely to call protests in the weeks leading up to the poll to denounce his re-election bid and the declaration that their candidates are ineligible. Demonstrations are likely to be subdued due to internal divisions and the waning influence of Ouattara’s opponents.
Region: Africa
Category: Election Potential Impact Type: Unrest
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit South Korea 21 October - 1 November
The APEC summit brings together 21 major economies such as the US, China, Japan, Russia and Australia, serving as a key multilateral forum for dialogue across the region. Meetings take place in Incheon (21-23 October), Busan (26-28 October) and Gyeongju (27 October to 1 November). Agenda topics include structural reform, sustainable trade, digital economy and climate cooperation. Public transport disruption and vehicle restrictions are likely, with electronic warfare measures to secure airspace.
Region: APAC
Category: Geopolitical; Multilateral meeting Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Republika Srpska Presidential Election Bosnia and Herzegovina 23 November
Early elections take place for the presidency of the ethnic Serb entity Republika Srpska (RS) following a court decision to revoke the presidential powers of RS President Milorad Dodik. Dodik has threatened to block the electoral process by refusing to open polling stations, intensifying the political crisis. If the polls are obstructed, instability could extend well into 2026, deepening institutional fragmentation and potentially provoking broader political unrest.
Region: Europe
Category: Election Potential Impact: Unrest
COP30 Brazil 10-21 November
The 30th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) takes place in Belém. COP30 will convene global leaders, policymakers, environmental experts, and civil society. Protests are common during COP conferences, with environmental activists, indigenous groups and civil society organizations likely to organize actions. Security will be heightened in Belém during COP30, with traffic diversions and security barriers likely to be in place.
Region: Americas
Category: Geopolitical; Multilateral Meeting Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
47th ASEAN Summit Malaysia 26-28 October
The 47th ASEAN Summit takes place in Kuala Lumpur, with Malaysia's chairmanship focusing on strengthening regional cooperation in economic development, security, digital transformation, and environmental sustainability. The summit will convene leaders from ASEAN member states, as well as heads of government from non-ASEAN countries, reportedly including the US, Italy, Brazil and South Africa. The authorities are likely to implement stringent security measures, including road closures and heightened police presence, as ASEAN summits have historically attracted protests.
Region: APAC
Category: Geopolitical; Intergovernmental Forum Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Anniversary of the 2019 “Bloody November” Protest Iran 15 November
Opposition groups, students and political activists are likely to stage rallies to mark the anniversary of the "Bloody November" protests. These erupted in 2019 over a fuel crisis, developed into a mass protest movement against authoritarianism, cost of living and corruption, and were suppressed with the death of at least 300 protesters. Any large-scale unrest will most likely be face forcible dispersal, arrests and potential internet restrictions.
Region: MENA
Category: Security; Protest Potential Impact Type: Unrest
Parliamentary Elections Netherlands 29 October
Early parliamentary elections are likely to result in a centrist or center-right coalition government, but negotiations are likely to run into 2026. Henri Bontenbal, leader of the centrist Christian Democratic Appeal, is the most likely next prime minister. The next government will likely bring greater political stability because it is unlikely to include the far-right, and regulation will be more predictable and coherent.
Region: Europe
Category: Election Potential Impact: Unrest
General Elections Chile 16 November
Chileans will vote for a new president and national legislators. The most likely candidates to get through to the run-off on 14 December are right-wing José Antonio Kast of the Republican party and left-wing former Labor Minister Jeannete Jara (2022-25) of the Communist Party. Polls point to Kast as the likely victor. There is a limited threat of civil unrest or violence in the run-up to the vote.
Region: Americas
Category: Election Potential Impact Type: Unrest
Parliamentary Elections Iraq 11 November
Elections will take place to elect members of the federal parliament. Prominent Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has called for a boycott of the electoral process, likely as a pretext to preserve his outsider status while retaining political leverage. The risk of mass mobilization will be high given Sadr’s ability to trigger street pressure.
Region: MENA
Category: Election Potential Impact type: Unrest
Presidential and Legislative Elections Tanzania 28 October
President Samia Suluhu is seeking her first term as an elected president after taking power in March 2021 on the death of her predecessor John Pombe Magufuli. Running on the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party ticket, Suluhu has reverted to Magufuli-era tactics such as banning the main opposition Party for Democracy and Progress (CHADEMA) from contesting the elections, making a landslide win for her and the CCM likely.
Region: Africa
Category: Election Potential Impact: Unrest
G20 Leaders’ Summit South Africa 22-23 November
The G20 Leaders' Summit takes place in Johannesburg, with heads of state and other government officials attending. The forum is expected to discuss global economic stability, sustainable development, and other pressing international issues. Previous G20 events have attracted large protests. Security at the venue will be very strict, with road closures potentially leading to disruption and delays to transport in the city.
Region: Africa
Category: Geopolitical; Intergovernmental Forum Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Maaveerar Naal Commemorations Sri Lanka 27 November
Tamil communities in Sri Lanka's northeast will mark Maaveerar Naal (Heroes' Day), honoring Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) fighters lost in the civil war. In 2024, events at over 200 sites drew tens of thousands to universities, temples, and former LTTE areas with minimal interference, but previous years saw harassment, arrests and surveillance spiking around the date. Enhanced security measures may lead to arrests or disruption at sites.
Region: APAC
Category: Anniversary Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
East African Anti-Corruption Summit Uganda 17-21 November
The Eastern African Association of Anti-Corruption Authorities (EAAACA) holds its 16th Anti-Corruption Conference in Kampala. The event will focus on promoting mutual legal and technical assistance, sharing best practices, and strengthening institutional capacity to combat corruption across member states. High-level delegates are expected to attend, and increased security and traffic measures will be implemented near the venue and delegates' accommodation.
Region: Africa
Category: Geopolitical; Multilateral Meeting Potential Impact type: Transportation
What to Watch Q4 Timeline
Click on an event for more details.
Security Incident Report
Q3 2025
In this quarterly report, we extract key trends from Seerist data to analyse Q3 global patterns and provide forecasts on what's to come in the months ahead.
Executive Summary
JUMP TO SECTION
Unrest
War
Terrorism
Americas: Crime and Unrest Targeting the Government Sector
What to Watch in Q4
Notable Q3 Events
Drone and Aircraft Violations of NATO Airspace
Anti-government Generation Z Protests in Asia
Africa
Americas
APAC
Europe
MENA
Parliamentary Elections Kyrgyzstan 30 November
Parliamentary Elections Kyrgyzstan 30 November
Snap parliamentary elections will take place after the legislature voted to dissolve itself on 25 September. The timing and a change in electoral system is likely motivated by President Sadyr Japarov’s interest in reinforcing control ahead of presidential polls in 2027. The threat of unrest is low, with the opposition weakened and economic growth reducing demand for a transfer of power.
Region: Europe
Category: Election Potential Impact: Unrest
General Elections Honduras 30 November
General Elections Honduras 30 November
Voters will elect the president, vice-president, members of the National Congress (legislature) and representatives for the Central American Parliament (Parlacen). The electoral cycle will lead to heightened polarization and sporadic bouts of unrest, but widespread instability is unlikely.
Region: Americas
Category: Election Potential Impact: Unrest
Martyrs’ Day Bahrain 17 December
General Election Myanmar 28 December
Martyrs’ Day Bahrain 17 December Martyrs' Day is a national holiday but is celebrated by the Shia population to honor the death of two protesters during the 1994 uprising. Anti-government protests in Shia areas of Manama, Capital province, and Northern province are likely, with past protests seeing blocked roads and clashes with security forces. Security forces may block roads to attempt to prevent large gatherings.
Region: MENA
Category: National Holiday Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
General Election Myanmar 28 December
Myanmar's military junta is planning the first general election since the 2021 coup. Voting will occur in stages starting on 28 December, excluding 121 constituencies due to conflict, with results by January 2026. New laws and restrictions favor the junta's proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), and the polls will lack legitimacy. Resistance forces, including the National Unity Government and ethnic armed groups, have vowed to oppose the elections, with strong likelihood of significant disruption and violence.
Region: APAC
Category: Election Potential Impact: Unrest, Conflict
MENA
All
Africa
APAC
Europe
Americas
Unrest incidents in Q3 rose 13% in Europe over Q2, with notable increases in Germany and the UK. The rise in Germany was partly driven by LGBTQ rallies for Christopher Street Day. The UK saw anti-immigration protests in several cities, notably Portsmouth and Glasgow, with some property damage and clashes with security forces. In France, the Bloquons Tout (“Block Everything”) movement mobilized thousands of people in urban centers against austerity, sparking clashes with police and highway blockades, while Spain saw continued anti-tourism demonstrations. Serbia saw a 150% increase as student-led anti-government protests intensified in Belgrade and other cities. In Western Europe, 31% of verified unrest events were related to the war in Gaza. Environmentalists accounted for 7.5% of all unrest incidents (notably in Germany, Netherlands and Norway) and right-wing activists 4.5% of the total.
Europe
Verified unrest events in the Americas increased by 21% in Q3, with most unrest events targeting the government sector. The United States saw a 4% quarterly decline, but anti-government protests over several of President Donald Trump’s policies continued. Overall, violent unrest in the US also fell, with only 2% of events involving vandalism and scuffles. In Paraguay, unrest increased by 71%. Although most of the demonstrations were minor, protesters set up roadblocks in more than 50% of recorded protests. In Argentina, protests against President Javier Milei’s austerity measures persisted, driving a nearly two-fold increase. On the other hand, protests over changes to the social security law concluded in Panama, leading to a sharp 76% decline in unrest and the reopening of main roads.
Americas
US Verified Unrest Events, Q3 2025
The APAC region saw a 23% quarterly rise in unrest events, with India (81%), Indonesia (78%), Nepal (125%), and the Philippines (205%) all seeing significant increases. In India, farmers held protests throughout Q3, particularly in Punjab, to raise various demands, including a legal guarantee of the Minimum Support Price (MSP) and rejection of a proposed amendment to an electricity act. The increases in Indonesia, Nepal and Philippines were driven by ‘Gen Z’ protests triggered by issues such as corruption and inequality. Unrest in the Philippines spiked in late September, primarily in response to alleged corruption in government flood control projects, with hundreds of protesters clashing with police in Manila on 21 September, leaving 70 officers injured. Meanwhile, anti-immigration sentiment surfaced in Australia, with thousands participating in rallies across major cities on 31 August.
APAC
Philippines Verified Unrest Events Q3 2025 by Target Sector
Unrest events in the Africa region declined by 9% from Q2 to Q3 2025. Nigeria saw a 65% fall driven by a slowdown in large-scale anti-government and labor-related protests that peaked earlier in the year. Kenya recorded a 26% decrease, with most actions in Q3 being isolated community protests, whereas Q2 saw unrest coinciding with holidays and symbolic dates. Guinea saw a rise in protests, related to a constitutional referendum in September. Meanwhile, Madagascar saw a large rise in verified unrest events as opposition-led demonstrations over power and water disruption in late September grew into a countrywide youth-led anti-government protest movement. Several protests took place in Congo (DRC) as local groups protested at insecurity, poor governance and corruption.
Africa
Madagascar Verified Unrest Events Q3 2025 by Target Sector
Verified unrest events in the MENA region were up 4% from Q2. Morocco saw the highest number. Pro-Palestine protests accounted for 89% of Morocco’s total, down from over 98% in Q2, as domestic unrest, including the ‘GenZ212’ protests over poor public services, surged in late September. Iran ranked second, driven by persistent domestic and labor disputes. Unrest dropped 33% from Q2, but levels were unusually high that quarter and the Q3 figure was only 6% down on Q1. Israel recorded a 104% increase over Q2, which saw reduced unrest due to a ban on public gatherings during the Israel-Iran war. However, Q3 unrest was 26% higher than the Q1 total as pressure continued to build for the government to broker a ceasefire or hostage deal.
MENA
Morocco
0
100
200
700
MENA Verified Unrest Events Q2-Q3 2025: Top 10 Countries
Iran
Israel
Iraq
Yemen
611
Syria
Verified unrest events increased from Q2 to Q3, with significant rises in APAC, Americas and Europe regions.
Unrest
executive summary
NEXT SECTION
Government
31.71%
Power
31.71%
Law enforcement/ Legal
12.2%
Retail
8.54%
Private Property
7.32%
Education
2.44%
Rail
2.44%
Financial
1.22%
Hospitality
1.22%
Mining
1.22%
Tunisia
Bahrain
Lebanon
Libya
300
400
500
600
640
647
432
168
343
273
252
128
137
65
122
108
89
39
66
20
52
36
45
Q2
Q3
Others
34%
Flood
59%
Vice President Sara Duterte
7%
0
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Turkiye
Spain
Netherlands
Serbia
Italy
Belgium
Sweden
400
300
200
100
371
237
210
200
175
141
137
131
119
74
Europe Verified Unrest Events Q3 2025: Top 10 Countries
MENA
All
Africa
APAC
Europe
Americas
Seerist recorded an 18% increase in verified war events in Ukraine in Q3, following a 9% increase in Q2. Russia continued to stage large-scale drone and missile attacks against population centers far from the frontlines, including the capital Kyiv, Lutsk (Volyn region), Lviv and Mukachevo (Zakarpattia region), as well as ground operations in north-eastern Ukraine. War events in Russia increased by 73%, after a 20% fall in the previous quarter. Ukraine intensified drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and export terminals, including the Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkortostan region and the Afipsky Refinery in Krasnodar, causing significant fuel shortages and price increases in several regions. Late Q3 also saw several drone and aircraft incursions into West European airspace, most likely deliberate Russian probing of NATO capacities.
All
Europe
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Verified War Events in Ukraine and Russia, Q1-Q3 2025
7236
3327
Q3
Q2
Q1
Ukraine
Russia
In the Americas, war events were only recorded in Colombia, which saw a steep quarter-on-quarter rise from 6 to 38 events. Armed confrontations between rival leftist guerrillas and with security forces, drove the escalation. Most attacks involved firearms, with only five involving IEDs. Colombia’s security environment is likely to continue deteriorating through Q4 2025.
Americas
Verified war events in APAC fell 6% from Q2 to Q3, despite a border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia involving airstrikes and artillery exchanges from 24 to 28 July. India saw a 67% decline in war events following a de-escalation of tensions along the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan following the 10 May ceasefire. Verified war events in Myanmar increased 7%, with fighting concentrated in the Sagaing, Mandalay, and Magway regions, as well as Shan State. The military government has reportedly launched attacks aimed at retaking resistance-held areas ahead of general elections set for 28 December. In Taiwan, the frequency of Chinese military aircraft incursions across the median line of the Taiwan Strait remained stable, with a monthly average of 27 intrusions.
APAC
War events in the Africa region decreased by 8% quarter-on-quarter. Somalia saw a 22% quarterly drop in verified war events, but the trend over the past 5 months has been steady. Al-Shabab tactics will likely continue to outpace federal and allied forces, which remain overstretched and under-resourced. In Sudan, verified war events declined 12% on Q2 as the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) repelled Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attempts to capture El-Fasher and consolidate control over the Darfur region. Fighting will persist in the Darfur and Kordofan regions and hostilities will likely intensify as the rainy season ends in September, though territorial changes will remain limited. War events in Mali remained steady from Q2 to Q3 amid continued drone strikes and ground assaults against militant strongholds across Mopti, Kidal, Tombouctou, Kayes and Koulikoro regions.
Africa
Sudan Verified War Events, Q3 2025
In the MENA region, verified war events fell 7% in Q3, driven by a 95% drop in Iran and 53% in Israel after they ended hostilities. In contrast, the Palestinian Territories, Lebanon and Syria saw increases as the Israel-Hamas war continued spilling over into neighboring countries. Lebanon saw a 20% rise, with 88% of events recorded in South and Nabatieh governorates. In Syria, war events rose by 55%; 24% were Israeli airstrikes on former regime sites, while 30% stemmed from Israeli support for Druze groups engaged in clashes with the Ministry of Defense. Both security environments could change in Q4 as Lebanon seeks Hizbullah’s disarmament under the ceasefire with Israel, and the Syrian government negotiates a potential normalization agreement with Israel, including a demilitarized zone in Al-Suwayda governorate.
MENA
Lebanon and Southern Syria Verified War Events Involving Israeli Security Forces, Q3 2025
Verified war events increased from Q2 to Q3, driven by a large rise in Europe, with small declines in Africa, APAC and MENA regions.
War
executive summary
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Heatmap of verified war events at the Thailand-Cambodia border between 23 and 31 July 2025.
Number of verified war events at the Thailand-Cambodia border between 23 and 31 July 2025.
Start of conflict
Ceasefire declared
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Aug
Sep
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Americas Verified War Events, Q2-Q3 2025
7000
8000
6186
1919
5677
2399
MENA
All
Africa
APAC
Europe
Americas
Seerist verified only one terrorism-related incident in Western Europe in Q3, which occurred in Dublin, Ireland. An attacker set fire to the Black Forge Inn, a bar owned by a former Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) champion, and stabbed a Garda (police) officer; the suspect was subsequently arrested. Despite the low number, the overall terrorism threat will persist, with the most likely scenario being an attack by an individual or small group using unsophisticated tactics against soft targets, such as holiday markets, shopping districts, religious targets and public events.
Europe
In the Americas, terrorism events saw a slight increase in Q3 2025. Leftist guerrillas, mainly active in Colombia, remained the most prevalent perpetrators, accounting for 78% of all terrorism events, while ethnic militants continued to carry out arson attacks in Chile. Despite firearms being the most common attack type, the use of drones grew (from three to 15), highlighting the expanding capabilities of these groups.
All
Americas
In the APAC region, the number of verified terrorism events declined by approximately 20% quarter-on-quarter. In Q3, Pakistan (59%) and Thailand (23%) account for the majority of terrorism attacks in Asia, with firearms and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) remaining the most common forms of attack in the region. In Pakistan, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa continue to be the hotspots for militant attacks, with several high-profile incidents occurring in September. Notably, on 13 September in South Waziristan district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants opened fire on a military convoy, killing at least 12 soldiers and injuring four others. Subsequently a vehicle-borne explosive device detonated on 30 September near the Frontier Corps (FC) headquarters in Model Town, Quetta, resulting in 10 fatalities and 32 injuries.
APAC
The Africa region saw an 18% decline in terrorism events in Q3 compared with Q2. The fall was driven by significant declines in Nigeria (59%) and Somalia (74%). Attacks in Nigeria were generally smaller ambushes rather than the large, coordinated assaults of earlier months. The use of IEDs and other explosives declined by 76% quarter on quarter. The fall in Somalia followed intensive government and allied offensives that disrupted al-Shabab networks in central and southern regions. Despite the overall fall, Congo (DRC) saw an increase due to the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) stepping up attacks against civilians in retaliation for an increase in joint Ugandan-Congolese military operations against the group. Mozambique also saw a rise in terrorist attacks amid a lack of effective security responses to Islamist extremist incursions in strategic areas.
All
Africa
Mozambique Verified Terrorism Events, Q2 2025
Verified terrorism events in MENA rose 46% in Q3 after a 25% drop in Q2. In the Palestinian Territories incidents increased 85% as Hamas escalated attacks against Israeli forces, mainly roadside bombs and/or mortar shelling, as operations expanded further into Gaza City. In Syria, Islamic State (IS) continued attempting to undermine the transitional government, driving a 55% rise in terrorism events. Around 70% took place in Deir Ezzour governorate, mostly small-scale assaults on Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In Israel, terrorism attacks rose 42%. Over 25% were Gaza-launched rockets causing no casualties, while 64% were Houthi strikes from Yemen, nearly all ineffective. However, three drone attacks on Eilat between 7 and 24 September caused more than 20 casualties and inflicted material damage on hotels, retail areas and a passenger hall at the airport.
MENA
Verified terrorism events remained steady from Q2 to Q3, with a large rise in MENA region balanced by falls in Africa and APAC.
Terrorism
executive summary
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Verified Terrorism Events Q3 2025: Israel, Palestinian Territories and Syria
Gun
29.41%
IED/Homemade
28.43%
Drone
14.71%
Arson/Firebomb
10.78%
Car Bomb
2.94%
Grenade
2.94%
Hijacking
2.94%
Blockades
1.96%
Landmine
1.96%
Americas Verified Terrorism Events, Q3 2025, by Attack Type
Military Drone
3.92%
Mozambique Verified Terrorism Events, Q3 2025
Seerist EmotionsAI in Pakistan – A spike in Fear was recorded for three high-profile terrorism attacks in September.
Click circles to view Verified Events.
Seerist’s Intelligence Team verified more than 34,100 war, terrorism, unrest and organized crime events globally in Q3 2025.
Americas: Crime and Unrest Targeting the Government Sector
in-depth analysis
In the Americas, the government sector was the second most targeted across all categories, accounting for around 30% of all events recorded in the region in Q3 2025. Most were unrest events, but we also recorded targeted shootings of public prosecutors, officials, legislators and election candidates.
Crime and Unrest Events Targeting Government Sector, Q1-Q3 2025
Chile
Colombia
Brazil
Ecuador
Mexico
Peru
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
65
94
123
42
45
50
78
85
122
13
15
69
221
211
367
37
50
85
Q1
Q2
Q3
Mexico recorded the region’s highest number of attacks on public officials, with incidents rising nearly 150% in Q3. Local officials were the most affected, with Guerrero and Veracruz states accounting for 30% of all reported attacks on public officials.
Political violence in the United States continued into Q3 at a slightly lower rate. Following the killing of Minnesota State Rep. Melissa Hortman in June in what was deemed a politically motivated assassination, conservative activist and Trump ally Charlie Kirk was killed in a targeted attack on 10 September. Meanwhile, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities in Alvarado, McAllen and Dallas (all TX) were targeted in shooting attacks. Unrest targeting the government sector remained high, fueled by protests opposing the administration, ICE raids and National Guard deployments.
Colombia’s security environment worsened, with crime, terrorism and war events rising nearly 50% in Q3. Following the assassination of Senator and presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe in June, FARC dissidents staged two deadly attacks in Cali (Valle del Cauca department) and Amalfi (Antioquia department) on 21 August. These incidents, along with continued violence targeting local officials and security forces, underscore a decline in the security environment ahead of the 2026 presidential elections.
In Brazil, government-related unrest continued to increase despite the trial and conviction of former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019-23), which caused only localized protests. Meanwhile, Ecuador experienced escalating anti-government unrest, including a nationwide strike over the removal of diesel subsidies at the end of Q3.
Drivers of political violence in the Americas vary by country, but include political polarization, approaching elections, organized crime or armed insurgency, weak institutions and socioeconomic pressures. These are likely to sustain political violence risks, with significant implications for business operations and executive safety.
Heatmap of crime and unrest events targeting public officials in Q3 2025.
November 2025
December 2025
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Presidential Election Guinea 28 December
Presidential Election Guinea 28 December
Interim President and junta leader Gen Mamady Doumbouya is likely to run and win the presidential race. The opposition is likely to continue facing significant challenges, including repression from the junta, which will hinder its ability to organise and effectively challenge the ruling camp. The political and security situation is likely to remain broadly stable, with large-scale unrest unlikely. Businesses are likely to experience broad continuity both before and after the election.
Region: Africa Category: Election Potential Impact Type: Unrest
European Council Summit Belgium 18-19 December
European Council Summit Belgium 18-19 December
The European Council Summit will be held in Brussels in the Europa building on Rue de la Loi, with heads of state and government from the EU's 27 member states in attendance. Protests and disruption have been common around EU summits in previous years. The summit is likely to attract protests by anti-austerity groups, with a risk of blockades and clashes with security. Security measures will be enhanced and travel disruption is likely.
Region: Europe Category: Geopolitical; Intergovernmental Forum Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Southeast Florida Climate Leadership Summit United States 16-17 December
Southeast Florida Climate Leadership Summit United States 16-17 December
The annual Southeast Florida Climate Leadership Summit takes place at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach. Regional leaders from across the academic, non-profit, government, community, and business sectors are set to attend. Given the politically charged nature of climate change discourse in Florida and the US more broadly, there is a threat of protest action by environmentalist and opposed groups, with heightened security and road closures likely around the venue.
Region: Americas Category: Other Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Annual OSCE Ministerial Council Austria 4-5 December
Annual OSCE Ministerial Council Austria 4-5 December
The annual meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Ministerial Council is set to be held in Vienna. Foreign ministers from the 57 OSCE participating states are set to attend the council. While the council is likely to pass without much disruption from unrest, recent years have seen protests against Russia and Belarus's participation in the annual council. In the event of unrest, anticipate transport disruption in the vicinity of the venue (likely the Hofburg Palace). Heightened security and road closures should be expected in Vienna during the council.
Region: Europe Category: Geopolitical; Intergovernmental Forum Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Severity Rating
"No Kings" Protests
United States
18 October A coalition of social justice organizations operating under the banner "No Kings" has called for a second nationwide demonstration against President Donald Trump’s administration and policies. Protests will be held at approximately 2,000 locations nationwide, from courthouse steps to community parks. Activists may engage in disruption, including blocking major roads. Heightened security measures, including increased police presence and possible road closures, are possible.
Region: Americas
Category: Security; Protest Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Government
48%
Law enforcement / Legal
16.8%
Construction 11.2%
Public spaces 8.8%
Education
7.2%
Road
2.4%
Aviation
1.6%
Military
1.6%
Power
1.6%
Agriculture
0.8%
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