Q3 Verified Events Report

Global Event Trends

Q3 War

Q3 Terrorism

Q3 Crime

Q3 Unrest

Security Verified Event Report

Q3 2023

Global Event Trends

This quarter, Seerist highlighted an increase in unrest in Africa and Asia and the Pacific (APAC) regions. In Africa, unrest increased overall by 19.7% and in the APAC region unrest increased by 11.4%. Notably in Africa, drivers of unrest included anti-government sentiment, economic and service delivery grievances, and opposition to the French military presence, particularly in post-coup Niger, Kenya, and South Africa. In the APAC region, the increase in unrest aligns with labor-related protests in several countries as well as environmental activism in Japan and neighboring countries. A notable number of protests also occurred in Pakistan over the burning of the Quran in Sweden.

Unrest Analysis

Africa

Europe

MENA

APAC

Americas

In Q3, Seerist's intelligence team verified over 21,100 events of war, political violence, unrest, and organized crime around the world. In this quarterly report, we extract key trends from within the data to analyze global patterns from this quarter and provide forecasts on what's to come in the months ahead.

War

What to Watch

Trending 10

As in previous quarters, the conflict in Ukraine accounted for the largest number of verified war events (4,760) in Q3.

Although this represents a 22% decrease from verified events recorded in Q2 (6,085), fighting in the country continues to account for the highest number of war events globally. Russia notably moved to second place on our Q3 list with 1,109 verified events, up from 206 verified in the previous quarter. Morocco entered the Top 10 list with an increase from five verified events in Q2 to 76 in Q3. The increase reflects the renewed attacks by the Sahrawi pro-independence Polisario Front against Moroccan forces in Western Sahara and followed Israel’s decision to recognise Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed region. Somalia jumped from the bottom of the list in Q2 to the sixth place in Q3 with 156 verified events.

War in Europe

The Implications of Coups in Niger and Gabon

There were two successful coups in Africa in Q3: Niger and Gabon. Authorities have also reported thwarting alleged coup attempts in Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso, and the Republic of Congo over the past few months. Seerist closely followed and verified events in Q3 related to these coups and analyzed the impacts to business continuity.

In Gabon, a group of military officers on 30 August deposed longstanding President Ali Bongo in a coup, hours after he was declared winner of the 26 August presidential elections. The coup was spearheaded by General Brice Oligui Nguema - a cousin of the former president and commander-in-chief of the elite Republican Guard - who has since been sworn in as Interim President. According to a recent Control Risks assessment, internal power struggles appear to have motivated Oligui and his allies to depose Bongo, including their dissatisfaction with the reported growing influence in government of former First Lady Sylvie Bongo and her son Nourreddin. MORE >

Terrorism

As in Q2, Pakistan and Syria remain at the top of the list for countries impacted most by terrorism events with quarterly increases of 37% and 43% respectively. Notably, Colombia has remained third on the list as terrorist attacks more than doubled from Q2 to Q3. In Colombia, leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents and National Liberation Army (ELN) militants increased their attacks particularly in Cauca department, but also in Nariño, Norte de Santander, and Valle del Cauca.

In August, the federal government of Somalia launched the start of the second phase of its counter-insurgency campaign against al-Shabab in the central states of Hirshabelle and Galmudug. While security forces have achieved some successes, such as capturing al-Shabab territories in Q3, the second phase of the campaign has faltered, undergoing multiple setbacks as the militant group has responded by ramping up its own attacks and recapturing lost territory. Looking ahead to Q4, our strategic partner Control Risks forecasts the federal government’s goal to eliminate al-Shabab is unlikely to succeed. The government has limited military capabilities and faces some dissent from local groups which support al-Shabab. More importantly, security assistance from African Union (AU) troops continues to be gradually withdrawn, but the government has asked the AU to extend its mandate. Terrorism threats in Somalia will remain severe over the next quarter and into 2024, with the use of tactics such as suicide bombings expected to remain prevalent.

Somalia, Verified War and Terrorism Events – Q3 2023

Crime

Verified Crime Events in Mexico – Q3

In Q3, verified crime events in Mexico remained consistent with rates in Q2, a reflection of the challenging security environment coupled with the enhanced capabilities of organized criminal groups (OCGs) in the country. Seerist verified 436 crime events this quarter, with OCG activities accounting for at least 61% of them. Turf wars among rival OCGs remain the primary driver of crime incidents.

Unrest

Seerist identified an increase in the use of explosive devices by OCGs in Mexico over the last quarter. OCG rivalries and turf wars are expected to persist, likely raising crime and murder rates in Q4 and contributing to other security issues such as kidnappings and disappearances.

In Europe, unrest events related to environmental activism saw an 11.6% quarter-on-quarter increase with Germany recording the greatest increase in unrest at 67%. The manufacturing and automotive sectors were mainly targeted by activists in Germany, with incidents of unrest taking place near automotive assembly plants and disrupting shareholder meetings. Many events led to disruptions or blockades of major roadways and airport runways. According to a recent analysis by Control Risks, protests by environmental activists in Germany have witnessed a steady increase in radical activities as environmentalists' ideologies and actions increasingly align with those of far-left political extremists. MORE >

Over Q3, the United States experienced a wave of labor-related unrest across multiple industries, namely the entertainment, automotive, and healthcare sectors. In Hollywood, writers began a strike for better working conditions in July. In September, unionized autoworkers went on strike against the three largest auto parts manufacturers in the country, including workers in at least 93 plants and distribution centers across 20 states. Strikes and union activities have gathered momentum in Q3 due to the rising income inequality, a strained labor market, and advances in artificial intelligence in the workplace prompting job security concerns. Looking ahead, the 2024 elections will likely further politicize some union activities given the importance of manufacturing and other sectors to the Republican and Democratic bases. With this, Seerist forecasts that increased labor-related unrest will persist in the US over the next five years.

In the APAC region, the number of verified labor-related unrest events increased by 10%. High inflation rates and worker shortages – especially in the healthcare sector amid post-pandemic recovery – triggered mass labor protests and strikes with workers demanding better pay and working conditions. In Pakistan, there were a total of 170 verified labor unrest events in Q3, with 64% having occurred in July and August as unions protested the 34% increase in electricity tariffs. In South Korea, the Korean Railway Workers' Union, education, and healthcare workers went on strike and held multiple rallies over wages, working conditions, and other grievances, triggering a 30% quarterly increase in labor unrest in the country. MORE >

In Q3, Seerist recorded an increase of verified unrest events in the Middle East, including notable religious and anti-government protests. Countries like Iraq and Syria experienced large public demonstrations in response to Quran burnings in Europe and economic downturn. Unrest across the region has escalated further at the start of Q4 in response to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas in the Gaza Strip (Palestinian Territories). On 28 June, an Iraqi national protested outside a mosque in Stockholm, Sweden, burning a copy of the Quran during Eid Al-Adha. Additionally, on 24 July, two protesters burned the Quran outside the Iraqi Embassy in Copenhagen, Denmark. Following these incidents, Seerist recorded 85 religious-affiliated protests in seven countries across the Middle East, the majority of which occurred in Iraq. For instance, on 29 June, thousands of supporters of Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr gathered in Baghdad to protest and storm the Swedish Embassy. While religious protests have since subsided, future Quran-burnings could trigger further unrest. Moreover, there remains an elevated risk of unrest and violence against US and European embassies and diplomatic personnel in the Middle East In Q4 amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.

What to Watch in Q4 2023

Elections

Trending 10

On 26 July, members of the Presidential Guard in Niger staged a mutiny and ousted President Mohamed Bazoum. On 19 August, the new junta – the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland – announced it would stay in power for a maximum of three years to organize a transition to civilian rule. Amid these developments, Seerist's Pulse AI score indicating stability in Niger dropped by eight points, signifying the coup event and associated stability risks. Public response to the coup in Niger has been positive, with large pro-military protests breaking out in Niamey. The junta has also denounced the French military presence in the country, and demanded the withdrawal of French troops from the country. MORE >

Trending 10

Feature: Somalia

Crime in Mexico

Feature: Environmentalism and Labour Activism

Feature: MENA Unrest and Religious Activism

21,100

GLOBAL EVENTS

Unrest

War

Terrorism

1.83%

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1253

668

1693

1328

683

1436

1012

1569

1088

623

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

As in previous quarters, the war in Ukraine continues to drive the overall high count of war events in Europe. However, there was also an increase in war events in the APAC, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and Africa regions from Q2 to Q3. In the APAC region, there was a 20.1% quarterly increase in war events, driven by events in Myanmar as government forces intensified attacks in resistance strongholds near the Myanmar-China border in the Kachin and Shan states. While events in Israel and Gaza (Palestinian Territories) have dominated headlines in recent weeks, there was a 17.7% quarterly increase in war events in MENA even prior to the outbreak of that conflict. In Syria, Seerist recorded a surge in war events in Aleppo and Idlib governorates due to artillery strikes by government forces as well as clashes between Turkish forces and their allies and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants. In Yemen, war events doubled from Q2 in Taiz province and increased in Abyan province driven by shooting and artillery attacks by Houthi forces against Yemeni government troops.

War Analysis

Unrest

War

Terrorism

1.83%

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1253

668

1693

1328

683

1436

1012

1569

1088

623

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

In contrast to Q1 and Q2 where Seerist recorded a global decrease in terrorism events, in Q3 the Africa region witnessed a 16.1% increase in terrorism. Of the events verified in Africa, Somalia accounted for 27%, followed by Cameroon, Nigeria, Mali, DRC, and Kenya.

Terrorism Analysis

Unrest

War

Terrorism

French President Emmanuel Macron on 24 September announced the withdrawal of French troops from Niger by the end of 2023. According to Control Risks, this development also comes amid a wider reduction of French military presence in the Sahel given deteriorating relationships between France and the administrations in Mali and Burkina Faso. Overall, the draw down of French troops will likely weaken local capacity to counter Islamist militant activities in the wider Sahel region. In the coming weeks, Islamist militant groups will seek to take advantage of the political upheaval to launch attacks against security forces along major roads likely resulting in further disruption to supply routes, which have already been impacted by economic sanctions imposed by the regional by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) bloc on Niger following the coup. < BACK

Looking ahead in Q4, Seerist expects the continued normalization of the political environment under Oligui and his military junta, who have already demonstrated efforts to subdue public concern and maintain business continuity. The junta’s popularity and consolidation of its power suggest that another coup or the emergence of anti-junta demonstrations are unlikely. In the longer term, newly appointed interim Prime Minister Raymond Sima has suggested a two-year transitional period as a “reasonable objective” before organizing elections. However, given regional post-coup trends, this will likely be the minimum timeline, with a possible extension occurring within the next two years. < BACK

Trending 10

Somalia appeared on the trending 10 list this quarter, with the greatest increase of verified events at 150%. Islamist al-Shabab militants increased their attacks in response to security operations against their strongholds, particularly in Galguduud, Gedo, and Lower Juba regions, but also in the capital Mogadishu. Al-Shabab militants also ramped up attacks in Kenya, in the Lamu, Garissa, and Mandera counties that border Somalia, reflected in a 61% quarterly increase in terrorism events.

Seerist also recorded a decrease in terrorism events for some countries in Q3 that previously appeared on the top 10 terrorism list, including DRC, the Palestinian territories, and Chile. In addition, we recorded a 54% quarterly decrease in terrorism incidents in Burkina Faso, consistent with last quarter's downward trend, as security forces continue their offensive against Islamist militants in several regions.

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Significant attacks perpetrated by al-Shabab in Q3 include:

A complex attack against a military base in Cowsweyne town (Galguduud) on 26 August killing 130 soldiers.

A car bombing in Beledweyne town (Hiran) on 29 September that caused over 70 casualties.

The recapture of Ceel Buur town (Galguduud) from security forces on 30 August.

Al-Shabab has also more than doubled its suicide bombing attacks against security forces and government targets from Q2 to Q3, with 5 attacks carried out in the capital city of Mogadishu and 8 others across the country.

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Terrorism in Somalia

Crime in Mexico

In Guerrero state OCGs have infiltrated new business sectors like transportation, and locals have seemingly normalized their presence, contributing to the increase of violent crime. In August, armed individuals set fire to 12 vehicles on the Acapulco-Zihuatanejo highway and blocked traffic.

In the border states of Tamaulipas and Nuevo León, shootings and clashes with security forces escalated because of shifting dynamics between OCGs. For instance, on 27 September at least three highway blockades were verified amid clashes between members of an OCG and security forces in Nuevo León state.

Guerrero

Tamaulipas and Nuevo León

In Q4, as security operations continue to target cartel leaders and their operational bases, the threat of retaliatory attacks by OCGs in northern and western Mexico will likely increase. This in turn will increase operational disruptions, with blockades and illegal checkpoints operated by OCGs likely to impact businesses in Mexico.

MORE DETAILS

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

623

1088

1569

1012

1436

735

1080

1724

732

1069

Up 17.9%

Up 9.8%

Q2 and Q3 Unrest Events

390

1041

937

6381

434

1214

1095

5838

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Q2 and Q3 War Events

Up 11.2%

Up 16.8%

7,000

8,000

9,000

Up 16.6%

285

231

264

100

328

230

264

113

200

400

600

800

1,000

Q2 and Q3 Terrorism Events

Up 15%

Ukraine

Russia

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Q2 and Q3 Unrest Events

7,000

Myanmar

Sudan

Syria

Somalia

Palestinian Territories

Afghanistan

Congo (DRC)

Morocco

-22%

+438%

+21%

+9%

+52%

+114%

-34%

+13%

-28%

+1420%

Top 10 Verified War Events for Q3 Compared to Q2

April 2023

May 2023

June 2023

July 2023

August 2023

September 2023

Q2 and Q3 Unrest Events

Attacks on Ukrainian Ports Q2-Q3

MORE DETAILS

This quarter, Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia continued in the eastern and southern regions of the country, although progress was slow.

Attacks on Russian territory also intensified, particularly in the Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk regions. Ukrainian drone attacks have caused operational disruption at airports in the capital Moscow and other cities, mostly in the Moscow region. In a recent analysis, our strategic partner Control Risks assessed that with the help of sustained deliveries of weapons from Western allies, the Ukrainian counter-offensive will likely continue in the coming months with limited gains in the south. However, Ukrainian forces are unlikely to significantly expand their presence in the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Ukrainian drone, missile, and artillery attacks targeting Russian oil depots, military facilities, and government buildings will likely continue. MORE >

Mali

18 August 2020 The military detained Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta and Prime Minister Boubou Cisse, following months of anti-government protests.

Chad

21 April 2021 President Idriss Déby was shot dead during a conflict with rebels in Kanem province. A military transitional council was formed and announced his son, Mahamat Déby, as the country’s new leader.

Mali

24 August 2021 The Military, led by Vice President Assimi Goïta, detained President Bah N’daw and PM Ouane following a cabinet reshuffle before publicly announcing their removal on 25 May.

Guinea

5 September 2021 The military overthrew and detained President Alpha Conde, before announcing the dissolution of the government and constitution.

Sudan

25 October 2021 Sudanese military and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) arrested senior government officials and announced the dissolution of the government.

Burkina Faso

23 January 2022 The military detained President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré before announcing his removal on 24 January and declaring that the parliament, government, and constitution had been dissolved.

Burkina Faso

30 September 2022 Military forces removed Interim President Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba over his alleged inability to deal with the country’s Islamist insurgency.

Niger

26 July 2023 Presidential Guard members detained President Mohamed Bazoum during a mutiny, before announcing his removal from office on 27 July.

Gabon

30 August 2023 Armed forces seized control of key government buildings and announced the removal of President Ali Bongo Ondimba, shortly after he won re-election in the 26 August polls.

2020

2021

2022

2023

Successful Coups in Africa, 2020 – 2023

Niger

Gabon

Niger

Pakistan

Syria

Colombia

Somalia

Cameroon

Nigeria

Mali

Thailand

Congo (DRC)

Philippines

100

120

140

Trending Ten Terrorism – Q3

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Colombia : Regional Elections 29 October

Madagascar : Presidential Elections 16 November

Netherlands : General Elections 22 November Elections to proceed with minimal risks

Egypt : Presidential Elections 12 December

Chad : Constitutional Referendum 17 December

Chile : Constitutional Referendum 17 December

Congo (DRC) : Presidential and National Elections 20 December

Osaka, Japan : Japan Series 2023 28 October – 5 November

Bletchly Park, England : Global AI Summit 1 – 2 November

San Francisco, California : APEC Annual Summit 11 – 17 November

Dubai, UAE : Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 28) 30 November – 12 December

Davos, Switzerland : World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting 15 – 19 January

Events

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400

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100

Guns

Arson

Robbery

Blockades

Hijacking

Vandalism

Protest

Drone

Grenade

Sticks/Beatings

Verified Events by Attack Type

In the APAC region, Seerist recorded a 40% increase in environmental activism from Q1 to Q3, with a slight 15% dip between the end of Q2 and the start of Q3. Environmental unrest in South Korea and Japan notably doubled from Q2 to Q3 in the wake of protests over the discharge of treated radioactive waste water from the now-defunct Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan into the Pacific Ocean. In September, Seerist verified the first climate protest this year in Singapore. The release of more water waste by the Japanese government could trigger additional protests and bans, placing Japanese nationals and their businesses in China and elsewhere at heightened operational risk. Additionally, environmental unrest may increase in the region during events associated with Asia-Pacific Climate Week 2023 which will be held in Johor Bahru, Malaysia from 13-17 November. < BACK

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

100

120

Environmental Unrest 2023

APAC

Europe

100

150

200

250

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Labor Unrest 2023

APAC

Europe

Labor activism in Europe and CIS notably decreased by 63% from Q2 to Q3. In France, verified labor events declined by 95% as the protests over pension reforms that peaked at the beginning of 2023 have become increasingly sporadic. Spain recorded a 68% quarterly decrease in labor-related unrest and the UK recorded a 21% decrease, which remains consistent with the downward trend in this form of unrest since Q1. However, labor related unrest may reignite in the coming months, given high gas prices during winter and increasing demands for higher wages and better working conditions in various sectors including transportation, education, and healthcare. < BACK

Environmental Activism APAC and Europe

Labor Activism APAC and Europe

Labor Activism United States

Environmental Activism APAC and Europe

Labor Activism APAC and Europe

Labor Activism United States

Environmental Activism APAC and Europe

Labor Activism APAC and Europe

Labor Activism United States

MENA Unrest and Religious Activism

Government

45.16%

Law Enforcement

13.03%

Private Property

11.61%

Military

7.23%

Religious

7.16%

Education

4.06%

Power

3.61%

Oil and Gas

2.90%

Public Spaces

2.90%

Healthcare

2.32%

Russian attacks against Ukrainian port infrastructure and grain facilities increased significantly in Q3 following Russia’s refusal to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) on 17 July. A series of drone attacks targeted Ukraine’s Izmail port (Odessa region), which is located in the Kiliia River estuary of the Danube River. Romanian authorities announced that drone parts fell on Romanian soil during an attack on 4 September. Russia is unlikely to re-join the BSGI and will continue to consider all Ukraine-bound vessels as legitimate military targets. As a result, Ukrainian grain exports are unlikely to significantly increase in the coming months and ports will remain vulnerable to attacks. < BACK

For updated information on the Armenia- Azerbaijan border conflict, click here to read the Situation Report on seerist.com.

Crime

Unrest

Terrorism

War

Niger

Gabon

2021

2022

2023

Elections

Events

Colombia: Regional Elections – 29 October Madagascar: Presidential Elections – 16 November Netherlands: General Elections – 22 November Elections to proceed with minimal risks Egypt: Presidential Elections – 12 December Chad: Constitutional Referendum – 17 December Chile: Constitutional Referendum – 17 December Congo (DRC): Presidential and National Elections – 20 December

Japan Series 2023: 28 October – 5 November: Osaka, Japan Global AI Summit: 1 – 2 November: Bletchly Park, England APEC Annual Summit: 11 – 17 November: San Francisco, California Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 28): 30 November – 12 December: Dubai, UAE World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting: 15 – 19 January: Davos, Switzerland

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War in Europe

Niger and Gibon Coups

Trending 10

Terrorism in Somalia

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Environmentalism and Labor Activism

MENA Unrest

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