In Q4, Seerist's intelligence team verified over 22,000 events of war, terrorism, unrest, and organized crime around the world. In this quarterly report, we extract key trends from within the data to analyze global patterns from this quarter and provide forecasts on what's to come in the months ahead.
22,000 events
Events to Watch in Q1 2024
Africa
Europe
Americas
APAC
MENA
Organized Crime in Latin America
Trending 10 War and Terrorism: Q3 vs Q4
Trending Ten War
Trending Ten Terrorism
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Overview
Global Terrorism
Global Unrest
Regional Hostilities
Mali
4 February
Presidential elections
Medium severity
Ethiopia
17–18 February
African Union (AU) 37th Heads of State Summit
Low severity
Ghana
6 March
Independence Day
Low severity
Africa
Europe
Americas
APAC
MENA
Slovakia
23 March
First-round Presidential Elections
Low severity
Belgium
21–22 March
European Council 2024
Low severity
Russia
15–17 March
Presidential elections
Low severity
Germany
16–18 February
Munich Security Conference
Low severity
Africa
Europe
Americas
APAC
MENA
United States
25 March (New York City)
President Trump's election obstruction and criminal trials
Medium severity
Somalia
March 2024
African Union troop withdrawal
High severity
Norway
March 2024
Nordic Response NATO exercise
Low severity
Mexico
1 March – 29 May
Presidential Election campaign period
Medium severity
United States
5 March
Super Tuesday primaries
Low severity
El Salvador
4 February
Presidential elections
Low severity
Panama
3 February – 2 May
Presidential elections campaign period
Low severity
Africa
Europe
Americas
APAC
MENA
Japan
1–8 February
Keen Edge exercise with US military
Low severity
India
19–27 February
Milan naval exercise
Medium severity
Indonesia
14 February
General Elections
Low severity
Cambodia
25 February
Senate Elections
Low severity
Pakistan
8 February
General Elections
Medium severity
Taiwan
24 February – 2 March
Coast Guard Administration (CGA) Live Firing Exercises
Medium severity
Africa
Europe
Americas
APAC
MENA
Yemen
27 March
Anniversary of the beginning of the Yemeni war
Medium severity
UAE
26–29 February
World Trade Organisation's (WTO) 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13)
Low severity
Iran
1 March
Legislative Elections
Low severity
Syria
14 February
Anniversary of the Israeli Annexation of the Golan Heights
Low severity
UAE
12–14 February
World Governments Summit 2024
Low severity
MYANMAR
Despite a slight quarterly decline in verified war events in Q4, Myanmar saw an eight-fold increase in territorial captures by armed resistance groups. Ethnic armed groups (EAGs) and People's Defense Forces (PDFs) in October and November launched offensive operations against regime forces to drive them out, especially in the northern Shan and Rakhine states and the Sagaing region. Fighting between government forces and armed resistance groups will persist into 2024.
SYRIA
In Q4, Syria's Idlib and Aleppo governorates had the highest quarterly increase in war events across the country (88% and 42% respectively), with government forces in Idlib and Turkish-backed forces in Aleppo fighting various rebel groups, including Islamist extremists. Additionally, Seerist verified more than 50 cross-border attacks by Iran-backed groups targeting US bases in Syria, and over 40 cross-border strikes by Israel against Syrian airports and military infrastructure, some belonging to the Lebanese Shia movement Hizbullah and other Iranian proxies. We expect cross-border strikes by both parties to continue amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.
SUDAN
War events in Sudan increased by 34% in Q4 over Q3 as the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) gained momentum. The fighting notably spread from the capital Khartoum and the Darfur and Kordofan states to other regions as the parties aimed to capture key territories and assets. The conflict is expected to persist in 2024 as several ceasefire negotiations in 2023 failed.
CONGO (DRC)
War events in Congo (DRC) increased by 38% in Q4 due to the rise of attacks by rebel and Islamist groups, including the March 23 (M23) rebel movement and Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), in eastern Congo. Militants primarily targeted government and military positions ahead of the December elections, but also engaged in internal fighting. Moreover, President Félix Tshisekedi faced pressure from local populations to step up the military's response, leading to a spike in armed confrontations that will continue in 2024.
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Ukraine
Palestinian Territories
Russia
Israel
Myanmar
Syria
Sudan
Lebanon
Somalia
Congo (DRC)
-9%
93%
-10%
-22%
49%
34%
8%
38%
5820%
11.012%
PAKISTAN
Terrorism events in Pakistan decreased by 18% from Q3 to Q4, however, Islamist extremist groups remained the main perpetrators of attacks followed by Balochistan separatists. While both groups tend to target security personnel and military assets, they have been known to attack political rallies, transportation hubs, and houses of worship, among other places, all of which will likely remain vulnerable to attacks as Pakistan prepares to hold general elections in February.
IRAQ
Terrorism events in Iraq increased by 130% in Q4 due to a surge in rocket and drone attacks by Iranian affiliates against US and coalition forces' bases following the parties' expression of support for Israel in its war with Hamas. The increase of terrorism events in Iraq will likely persist in 2024 as the Israel-Hamas conflict continues to drive hostilities throughout the region.
MALI
The number of terrorism events in Mali remained roughly the same from Q3 to Q4, with a slight 8% decrease recorded. Islamist militant groups continued to target UN forces at a similar frequency in both quarters. However, the number of casualties among UN peacekeepers increased significantly in Q4 due to successive attacks against withdrawal convoys. With Mali scheduled to hold presidential elections in February 2024, the rate of terrorism events will remain high.
Israel
Syria
Palestinian Territories
Somalia
Pakistan
Iraq
Nigeria
Yemen
Mali
Congo (DRC)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
10,425%
47%
413%
17%
122%
14%
19%
100%
-18%
-8%
Q3
Q4
Click selected countries for more information.
On 7 October 2023, Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas militants invaded Israel's Southern district, launching a multi-pronged offensive by land, air, and sea against military and civilian targets. Israel immediately launched a counter-offensive to secure its southern border and an aerial campaign in the Gaza Strip (Palestinian Territories) to destroy Hamas' tunnel infrastructure, operational capabilities, and weapons storage sites. On 27 October, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began ground operations in northern Gaza, which subsequently expanded to the whole of the strip as Israel seeks to rescue Israeli and foreign hostages taken by Hamas on 7 October and destroy Gazan militants' capabilities.
In Q4, Seerist verified over 2,000 war, nearly 1,000 terrorism, and over 120 unrest events in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, as well as over 350 war, terrorism, and unrest events in Lebanon. Fighting in Gaza and along the Israel-Lebanon border saw a brief lull in late November during the week-long truce agreement between Israel and Hamas, but Seerist's verified events database indicates that war and terrorism events rose quickly after 1 December as cross-border strikes resumed.
LOOKING AHEAD: SCENARIOS
Overview
Global Terrorism
Global Unrest
Regional Hostilities
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
0
Syria
Lebanon
Egypt
Iraq
India
Italy
Yemen
Cyprus
United States
5
10
15
20
25
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35
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45
Terrorism Incidents Linked to the Israel-Hamas Conflict
The outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict on 7 October 2023 fueled a rise in global terrorism in Q4, and reversed the trend of declining Islamist extremist incidents, contributing to a 36% increase in terrorism events globally from 2022 to 2023.
36% INCREASE
in terrorism events globally from 2022 to 2023.
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In Q4, terrorism incidents occurred mostly in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, but Islamist extremist groups also conducted attacks in countries and against assets with a perceived connection to Israel. According to Seerist data from Q4, about 32% of terrorism events recorded worldwide had direct links to the conflict in Gaza. For example, the surge in drone and missile attacks against US military bases in Iraq and Syria by Iran-backed paramilitary groups were motivated by US support for Israel in the conflict. In Europe and the Americas, authorities foiled several plots by suspected Islamist extremist groups to conduct attacks against Jewish and Christian religious assets. Seerist also verified several attacks against Israeli embassies and personnel, such as in Nicosia, Cyprus on 21 October and in New Delhi, India on 26 December.
Overview
Global Terrorism
Global Unrest
Regional Hostilities
In Q4 2023, Seerist recorded a surge in global unrest in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict. From 7 October through the end of the quarter, our intelligence team verified over 1,500 unrest events globally. Large pro-Palestine and pro-Israel protests were common in major urban centers, with most remaining peaceful, but localized bouts of violent unrest were also recorded.
1500+ GLOBAL
UNREST EVENTS
IN RESPONSE TO ISRAEL-HAMAS CONFLICT
Americas
456
(US 357)
Africa
44
MENA
599
(Morocco 273)
Europe
238
(UK 77)
Asia
224
Israel-Hamas Conflict Unrest from 7 October to 1 January
Hover over selected areas for more information
The majority of events were concentrated in the United States, followed by Canada. In the U.S., Israel-Hamas-related protests accounting for 48.5% of all unrest events in Q4.
The most protests occurred in the United Kingdom, followed by Germany, France, and the Netherlands.
Morocco witnessed a notable spike in unrest events in Q4 and accounted for the highest number of conflict-related unrest incidents in the MENA region, a significant trend given the country’s restrictions on peaceful assembly.
Seerist identified over 240 demonstrations held in the vicinity of public buildings, including the embassies and consulates of Israel and other Western countries in several regions. Similarly, assets in the transportation sector, such as airports, railway stations, highways, bridges, and ports were affected by conflict-related unrest, with more than 160 incidents verified in Q4. These pro-Israel/Palestine protest are expected to persist in 2024 and cause occasional disruptions to business operations as Israel’s military operation in Gaza will continue to drive activism and unrest worldwide.
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Overview
Global Terrorism
Global Unrest
Regional Hostilities
Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, tensions have been heightened throughout the Middle East. Within weeks of 7 October, Seerist verified hundreds of cross-border attacks from Iran-backed paramilitary groups in Lebanon and Syria targeting northern Israel. Seerist also verified 40 attacks in Iraq and over 50 in Syria from 1 October to 31 December targeting American military bases. In response, the US targeted Iran-affiliated groups in Syria and Iraq, and Israel conducted 11 verified strikes against the Damascus and Aleppo international airports and their surrounding areas to deter Syrian forces from entering the conflict. Israel conducted 29 additional strikes in southern Syria, one of which killed a high-profile Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) general. In the coming months, the intensity and scope of the indirect conflict between Israel and Iran in Syria will increase. Iran will likely increase the targeting of US bases in Iraq and Syria, which has been elevated since 7 October.
Moreover, since 19 November, the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen has targeted commercial vessels in the Red Sea to disrupt activity in the name of the Palestinian cause and combatting Israeli and US interests in the region. Seerist verified over 20 such attacks through 31 December, though most have missed their target or been intercepted. The targeting of international shipping by Houthi rebels will likely continue to threaten global supply chains in 2024. Regional de-escalation remains possible as ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas continue and other diplomatic efforts by the US and EU across the region are ongoing.
10.01.23 – 10.07.23
10.08.23 – 10.14.23
10.15.23 – 10.21.23
10.22.23 – 10.28.23
10.29.23 – 11.04.23
11.05.23 – 11.11.23
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11.26.23 – 12.02.23
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12.17.23 – 12.23.23
12.24.23 – 12.30.23
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Weekly War and Terrorism Events in Israel, the Palestinian Territories, and Lebanon
Lebanon
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Environmental Unrest
Conflict Flashpoints Across the Globe
Far Right Extremism
The Seerist intelligence team closely tracked the rise of environmental activism and unrest throughout 2023. Our previous quarterly reports featured notable shifts in environmental unrest across regions and the use of more violent tactics by activists, including vandalism and arson.
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Since Q4 2022, climate-related activism has been the main driver of environmental unrest in Europe, APAC, and the Americas regions. In 2023, Seerist recorded over 1,100 unrest events in this category, marking a 121% increase in environmental unrest from 2022 to 2023. While protests and blockades remained the primary tactic for environmental activists, 9% of events included arson or vandalism, particularly in Germany, the UK, and Spain.
Activists in particular targeted government buildings and the financial sector with vandalism, protesting the financing of fossil fuel projects. In Q2 and Q3, the oil and gas sector saw the highest number of unrest events across all sectors. In Q4, environmental unrest more than doubled at airports (aviation sector) and universities (education sector).
In 2024, Seerist forecasts that companies across the oil and gas, financial, mining, and transportation sectors - along with government assets - will continue to be targeted by environmental activists. There has been a rise in recent years of incidents of activism that have escalated to involve extremist or criminal tactics; a trend that is likely to continue in 2024. Additionally, environmental groups will seek to partner with other interest groups such as labor unions, which will potentially expand the range of targets for environmental protest actions to actions of solidarity with other related causes or to companies with even a tangential link to alleged environmentally damaging actions. Perceived inaction – or even backsliding – on climate commitments by governments and companies increases the likelihood of both mainstream protests and more targeted actions.
121% INCREASE
in environmental unrest from 2022 to 2023.
Environmental Unrest
Conflict Flashpoints Across the Globe
Far Right Extremism
In 2023, Seerist's experts continued to track conflicts around the world, with several flashpoints drawing particular attention over the course of the year.
RUSSIA
ISRAEL-HAMAS CONFLICT
MYANMAR
SUDAN
SYRIA
The conflict in Syria persisted in 2023, with militant groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamic State (IS), and Kurdish factions continuing to clash with international forces. Fighting in Syria escalated in Q4 following the eruption of hostilities between Israel and Hizbullah, Palestinian militant groups, and Iran-backed insurgents based along Israel's northern border with Syria and Lebanon. The Israel Defence Force launched a series of airstrikes against several strategic sites in Syria's Deir Ezzor, Aleppo, Suwayda, Daraa, and Quneitra governorates and against Damascus international Airport (DAM) to deter the government and Iranian proxies from joining the Palestinian war effort. Additionally, militant groups claimed several attacks against US military bases in Syria in response to US support for Israel.
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January
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War Events in Syria
Syria
RUSSIA
ISRAEL-HAMAS CONFLICT
MYANMAR
SUDAN
In Sudan, fighting broke out on 15 April between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the capital Khartoum, over plans to integrate the RSF into SAF’s command structures. Although Khartoum and the surrounding areas along with the Darfur region have been most affected by SAF and RSF clashes, the conflict notably spread to other states in the latter half of the year, escalating in Q4 with the warring parties seeking to capture strategic locations. Notably, the RSF on 26 October seized Sudan's second largest city, Nyala, in South Darfur state.
SYRIA
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War Events in Sudan
Sudan
RUSSIA
ISRAEL-HAMAS CONFLICT
MYANMAR
In Myanmar, the military pursued indiscriminate attacks against civilians, including internally displaced people's (IDP) camps, houses, schools, and other private property. The conflict intensified toward the end of 2023, with a coalition of armed ethnic groups launching a coordinated offensive (Operation 1027) against the military in Shan state at the end of October, capturing several towns. In November, the Arakan Army (AA) insurgent group launched an offensive against the military in Rakhine state, breaking a year-long ceasefire. Seerist data indicates that about 44% of the nearly 300 airstrikes conducted throughout 2023 took place in Q4 alone.
SUDAN
SYRIA
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War Events in Myanmar
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War Events in Israel, Palestinian Territories, and Lebanon
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Lebanon
RUSSIA
ISRAEL-HAMAS CONFLICT
The Israel-Hamas conflict, which began on 7 October when the Palestinian Islamist militant movement Hamas launched an offensive against Israel, caused a surge in war and terrorism events in Israel and Gaza (Palestinian Territories) in Q4 2023, following a relative lull in conflict earlier in the year. Since October, the conflict has escalated as the Lebanese Shia movement Hizbullah and Houthi rebels in Yemen, both backed by Iran, targeted Israel from the north and Red Sea with rockets, missiles, and drones. Houthi activities have disrupted international shipping in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea by targeting merchant shipping vessels, causing broader impacts to global shipping and supply chains.
MYANMAR
SUDAN
SYRIA
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War Events in Ukraine and Russia
Ukraine
Russia
ISRAEL-HAMAS CONFLICT
MYANMAR
SUDAN
SYRIA
RUSSIA Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continued throughout 2023, with Russian airstrikes, missiles, and artillery attacks against the capital Kyiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and other regions. Ukraine’s counter-offensive has been slow, but attacks in Russia’s Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk regions intensified, particularly in December.
EXPLORE MORE
The eruption of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Q4 also increased the likelihood of targeted violence by far-right groups, along with the rise in anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim hate crimes. Countries including the US, UK, Germany, and France have witnessed a spike in far-right violence amid the ongoing conflict and increased intent by such groups to participate in conflict-related protests. For example, in the US and UK, far-right activists clashed with pro-Palestinian demonstrators on several occasions and chanted antisemitic slogans. According to a recent analysis by our strategic partner, Control Risks, far-right motivated violence is most likely to occur alongside demonstrations, but can also target specific groups or assets, such as locations linked to the Jewish or Muslim faith. Additionally, hate crimes are unlikely to target business assets directly, but could target individual employees, both inside and outside of workplaces, including on business travel.
Environmental Unrest
Conflict Flashpoints Across the Globe
Far Right Extremism
According to data gathered by Seerist's intelligence team, the number of crime, terrorism, and unrest events perpetrated by far-right groups tripled in 2023 compared to year-end data from 2022, with incidents significantly increasing in Europe and North America. Anti-immigrant sentiment and racist ideologies remain key drivers for far-right violence, as demonstrated by the 23 November riots in Ireland led by far-right activists.
Far-right related incidents in 2022
Far-right related incidents in 2023
2023 Year in Review
According to the Israel-Hamas conflict scenarios published by our strategic partner, Control Risks, in Q1 2024, Israel will remain committed to eradicating Hamas militants and infrastructure in Gaza with fighting expected to continue over the coming weeks. Conflict will be most intense in southern Gaza, particularly around Khan Yunis where the IDF suspects key Hamas officials are currently based. Simultaneously, the IDF will begin progressive troop drawdowns from parts of the strip as it achieves aspects of its mission, such as dismantling Hamas command structure in northern Gaza and as the US begins to push more aggressively for the IDF to withdraw troops.
In Israel, although security threats will likely rise in the coming year, the security environment will remain largely stable. Palestinian militants based in Gaza and Lebanon will maintain capability, albeit increasingly degraded, to launch rockets against Israeli population centres, including Tel Aviv. In parallel, Lebanon’s Shia movement Hizbullah continues with low-intensity cross-border projectile attacks against Israel, primarily targeting military assets. Meanwhile, the threat of terrorist attacks by radicalized individuals increases, predominantly in the form of opportunistic stabbing, shooting, and car-ramming attacks.
War ends within a year, government changes – our most likely conflict scenario
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Mexico
Nigeria
Brazil
Ecuador
Peru
Colombia
Haiti
South Africa
Kenya
Iraq
Top 10 Countries for Organized Crime in 2023
2022
2023
In 2023, Seerist recorded over 9,000 crime incidents across Latin America, marking a 7% increase in overall regional crime since 2022. While the year-on-year increase in regional crime was relatively low, incidents perpetrated by organized criminal groups (OCGs) increased by 66% from 2022 to 2023. This rise in organized criminal activities across the region is significant, and in 2023 most high-impact incidents were related to OCGs. Taking a closer look at 2023, Seerist data shows a rise in crime region-wide in Q2 and Q3, and a slight decline in Q4, while verified events linked to organized crime continued to rise steadily year-round. Although Q4 saw a slight decline in regional crime, the improved capabilities and territorial expansion of OCGs will continue to add complexity to Latin America's security environment in 2024.
Hover over selected countries for more information.
In Brazil, turf wars between Organized Criminal Groups (OCGs) and shootouts with the police led to a consistent rise in OCG-perpetrated crime throughout the year.
In Ecuador, OCG activities gained prominence in Q2 and continued to rise in Q3, with high-profile incidents like the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio by OCG members in August.
In Colombia, where illegal mining has become a large-scale criminal enterprise, an OCG detonated an IED at a Chinese mining tunnel in Antioquia department in May.
In Peru, where illegal mining has become a large-scale criminal enterprise, armed men used explosives and raided a gold mine in La Libertad department in December.
Click to view Seerist Verified Events.
IN Q4, SEERIST'S INTELLIGENCE TEAM VERIFIED OVER
#1 WAR Europe and CIS
Trending Ten War
Trending Ten Terrorism
563
858
129
106
144
143
100
179
159
23
94
79
111
111
116
131
475
576
224
73
55
185
Hover to view each year on the map.
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Aviation
Oil + Gas
Financial
Construction
Entertainment
Manufacturing
Education
Marine
Road + Rail
Power
Mining
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Sectors Affected, by Quarter – Environmental Unrest
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
#2 – MENA
#3 – APAC
#2 – Africa
#3 – APAC
#1 TERRORISM MENA
#2 – Africa
#3 – APAC
#1 Crime Americas
#2 – MENA
#3 – Europe
#1 UNREST Americas
Q4 2023
Security Incident Report
2023 Year in Review
Events to Watch in Q1 2024
Organized Crime in Latin America
Trending Ten War and Terrorism
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Environmental Unrest
Conflict Flashpoints Across the Globe
Far Right Extremism
Overview
Global Terrorism
Global Unrest
Regional Hostilities
Severity rating: Seerist assigns a potential severity rating (low, medium, or high) to upcoming events to indicate possible operational disruptions or elevated security risks associated with each event.
With the conflict in its final stages within a year, Israeli civil society, media, and state institutions begin enquiries into the strategic and intelligence failures that led to Hamas’s 7 October terrorist attacks on Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition partners come under intense criticism, leading to its breakdown and triggering early elections, which are won by a coalition composed of political parties closer to the traditional right and centre.
Israel’s relations with regional states will remain significantly degraded in the coming year as regional governments seek to manage domestic anti-Israel sentiment. However, despite condemnation of Israel’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank, bilateral ties will persist where they existed prior to the conflict. Meanwhile, the indirect conflict between Israel and Iran continues, but remains largely calibrated and contained to Syria and the northern border with Lebanon. Despite the possibility of further US and UK airstrikes against Yemen’s rebel Houthi movement, the group maintains the capability and intent to target commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden especially as the Israel-Hamas conflict persists.
Since Q4 2022, climate-related activism has been the main driver of environmental unrest in Europe, APAC, and the Americas regions. In 2023, Seerist recorded over 1,100 unrest events in this category, marking a 121% increase in environmental unrest from 2022 to 2023. While protests and blockades remained the primary tactic for environmental activists, 9% of events included arson or vandalism, particularly in Germany, the UK, and Spain.
Activists in particular targeted government buildings and the financial sector with vandalism, protesting the financing of fossil fuel projects. In Q2 and Q3, the oil and gas sector saw the highest number of unrest events across all sectors. In Q4, environmental unrest more than doubled at airports (aviation sector) and universities (education sector).
Since Q4 2022, climate-related activism has been the main driver of environmental unrest in Europe, APAC, and the Americas regions. In 2023, Seerist recorded over 1,100 unrest events in this category, marking a 121% increase in environmental unrest from 2022 to 2023. While protests and blockades remained the primary tactic for environmental activists, 9% of events included arson or vandalism, particularly in Germany, the UK, and Spain.
Activists in particular targeted government buildings and the financial sector with vandalism, protesting the financing of fossil fuel projects. In Q2 and Q3, the oil and gas sector saw the highest number of unrest events across all sectors. In Q4, environmental unrest more than doubled at airports (aviation sector) and universities (education sector).
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While the year-on-year increase in regional crime was relatively low, incidents perpetrated by organized criminal groups (OCGs) increased by 66% from 2022 to 2023. This rise in organized criminal activities across the region is significant, and in 2023 most high-impact incidents were related to OCGs. Taking a closer look at 2023, Seerist data shows a rise in crime region-wide in Q2 and Q3, and a slight decline in Q4, while verified events linked to organized crime continued to rise steadily year-round. Although Q4 saw a slight decline in regional crime, the improved capabilities and territorial expansion of OCGs will continue to add complexity to Latin America's security environment in 2024.
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