Executive Summary
JUMP TO SECTION
Unrest
Terrorism
War
In-Depth Analysis
Georgia
United States of America
South Korea
Mozambique
2024 in Review
Syria
Notable Verified Events
What to Watch in Q2
Seerist’s Intelligence Team verified more than 29,000 war, terrorism, unrest and organised crime events globally in Q4 2024.
Verified unrest events decreased by approximately 15% globally in Q4 compared with Q3, despite a rise observed in Europe.
UNREST
executive summary
Americas
Verified Unrest Events in Q3 2024
Q2
Q3
Europe
APAC
MENA
Africa
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Africa
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In the Americas, the number of verified unrest events fell by 11%, with the biggest drop observed in Venezuela and Colombia. The US continued to see the highest number of unrest events in Q4, primarily driven by pro-Palestine activism and anti-Trump sentiment. Unrest events more than doubled in Peru, largely due to small-scale miners demanding an extension of registration to allow them to work temporarily.
52%
15%
11%
8%
5%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
Government
Law Enforcement/Legal
Road
Education
Healthcare
Retail
Mining
Hospitality
Power
Agriculture
Unrest Events by Sector
Americas Unrest Incidents: Targeted Sectors, Q4 2024
In Africa, unrest in South Africa and Congo (DRC) persisted at similar levels from Q3 to Q4, with many incidents linked to demands for better salaries and anger at poor service delivery in South Africa. Mozambique saw a ten-fold increase in unrest events, primarily due to opposition supporters protesting alleged irregularities in the 2024 general elections.
43%
15%
12%
10%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
Government
Law Enforcement/Legal
Education
Private Property
Healthcare
Road
Retail
Power
Military
Mining
Africa Unrest Incidents:
Targeted Sectors, Q4 2024
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
In Europe, unrest events rose 17% quarter-on-quarter, with a slight decrease in the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands. Nevertheless, France recorded a 53% increase in unrest, largely due to farmers' protests, pro-Palestine activism, and concerns over job cuts. Georgia also recorded a significant spike in unrest events, driven mainly by pro-EU protests and allegations of fraud in the 2024 parliamentary elections.
57%
9%
8%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
Government
Law Enforcement/Legal
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Road
Military
Education
Healthcare
Rail
Aviation
Europe Unrest Incidents:
Targeted Sectors, Q3 2024
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
The APAC region saw the most significant quarter-on-quarter decline in unrest events, with a decrease of 43%. This decline is mainly attributable to the subsiding of anti-government protests in Bangladesh and Indonesia. However, South Korea bucked the trend, with an almost six-fold rise in unrest events in Q4 following the short-lived martial law declaration by President Yoon Suk-yeol.
51%
19%
7%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
Government
Law Enforcement/Legal
Education
Agriculture
Road
Manufacturing
Healthcare
Private Property
Religious
Retail
APAC Unrest Incidents:
Targeted Sectors, Q4 2024
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
In the MENA region, unrest events remained relatively stable in Q4 compared with Q3, with a slight decline observed in Bahrain, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Most demonstrations continued to focus on condemning Israeli attacks on Gaza. Iran saw the most significant rise in unrest, more than doubling, primarily driven by demands for higher wages, improved labour welfare, and better pension services. Tunisia experienced a 200% increase in unrest events, the second-largest rise in the region; this surge was largely attributed to protests related to the distribution of new taxi licenses and an incident involving a student assault on a teacher in Sabibah.
68%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
2%
1%
1%
Government
Military
Telecommunications
Education
Healthcare
Law enforcement/Legal
Oil + Gas
Private Property
Power
Road
MENA Unrest Incidents:
Targeted Sectors, Q4 2024
Americas
Africa
Europe
APAC
MENA
MENA
MENA
MENA
MENA
TERRORISM
executive summary
MENA
Africa
Americas
APAC
Israel saw a high number of attacks by Lebanese Hizbullah militants during October and November, particularly in Northern District, and by Hamas militants in the south. Hizbullah militants also attacked Israeli forces inside Lebanon after the 1 October ground invasion, while Houthi rebels and al-Qaida militants stepped up attacks in Yemen in October. Syria recorded a rise in terrorism events in November and December around the opposition offensive led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham against the Syrian army and other pro-government forces.
Terrorism events in Africa remained steady overall, except for a threefold increase in Mozambique (in Cabo Delgado province) and a 14% rise in Congo (DRC), particularly in December, when militant groups stepped up attacks in North and South Kivu provinces. We recorded five terrorist attacks in Benin in Q4, three in Alibori and two in Atacora departments, close to the border with Niger and Burkina Faso.
MENA
Africa
Americas
APAC
In the Americas, Seerist recorded a 9% quarterly rise in terrorism attacks, mainly driven by an increase in FARC dissident attacks against Colombian security forces (particularly in October), 40% occurring in Cauca department. Terrorist attacks were steady in Chile, all of them arson attacks in La Araucania region by suspected Mapuche indigenous militants. Brazil had a suicide car bomb attack against the Supreme Court building on 13 November, investigated as right-wing terrorism.
MENA
Africa
Americas
APAC
Asia saw a 20% quarterly drop in terrorism events, mainly due to fewer attacks in Pakistan. However, terrorism events in Thailand increased by 19% in Q4 over Q3, as separatist insurgents staged more attacks in the southern provinces of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and Songkhla, more than half involving explosives. Seerist also recorded a quarterly rise in terrorism attacks in Afghanistan, including a missile attack against Kabul Airport (KBL) on 20 October claimed by the anti-Taliban Afghanistan Freedom Front group.
MENA
Africa
Americas
APAC
Terrorism events increased by 22% quarter on quarter in Q4, mainly triggered by conflicts in the MENA region.
Verified war events increased globally by 10% from Q3 to Q4, with event counts rising significantly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and decreasing slightly in Africa, Europe and Asia.
WAR
executive summary
Americas
2024 Verified War Events
Q3
Q4
Europe
APAC
MENA
Africa
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MENA
Africa
Europe
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MENA
Africa
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In the MENA region, the rise in war events was driven by an escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict, coupled with Israel’s military operations in southern Lebanon after a ground invasion on 1 October, which triggered more attacks by Hizbullah militants on Israel. As a result, war events increased in Israel (2.5 times), the Palestinian Territories (1.8 times) and Lebanon (1.7 times). Syria also saw a significant rise in war events in Q4. The government sustained attacks on opposition militants in the Idlib and Aleppo governorates, before war events peaked at the end of November and start of December when the Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) rebel coalition captured several cities, including the capital Damascus, and toppled the regime.
Africa experienced a modest 6% decline in war events in Q4 compared to Q3, with the most significant decreases recorded in Sudan and Nigeria. However, war events in Burkina Faso increased more than twofold quarter-on-quarter with a higher number of airstrikes by security forces against Islamist extremist militants, particularly in November, in Centre-Nord, Nord, Centre-Est, Est, Sahel and Boucle du Mouhoun regions.
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
In Europe, Seerist data for Q4 shows a 16% increase in war events in Ukraine, following a 2% decrease in Q3. Ukrainian forces carried out cross-border artillery and drone attacks, mainly in Russia’s Belgorod, Voronezh, Saratov, Krasnodar Krai and Bryansk regions, Clashes in Russia’s Kursk region continued in Q4, following Ukraine’s surprise incursion into the region in August.
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
In APAC region, the number of verified war events fell by 10%, largely due to a decrease in fighting in Myanmar. China has been exerting pressure on ethnic armed groups to reduce their offensives and engage in negotiated settlements with the military, particularly in Myanmar's northern border states of Kachin and Shan. In Taiwan the frequency of Chinese military aircraft incursions to median line of the Taiwan Strait remained relatively steady in Q4.
MENA
Africa
Europe
APAC
GEORGIA
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS
Verified War Events in Israel, Lebanon, Palestinian Territories, and Syria
Q3
Q4
Israel
Lebanon
Palestinian Territories
Syria
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Verified War Events in Russia-Ukraine
Russia
Ukraine
Q1
Q2
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Q4
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Q4 war events in Myanmar's Kachin and Shan states
Q4 Verified War Events in Burkina Faso.
Syria's spike in terrorism around the opposition offensive.
Verified terrorism events in North Kivu.
Zoomed-in view of verified terrorism events in Jamundi, Colombia.
Verified terrorism event involving missiles in Kabul.
Widespread protests took place across Georgia’s major cities, including the capital Tbilisi, Batumi, Kutaisi and Gori, after Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced on 28 November that the country would put EU accession negotiations on hold until 2028. Protesters are calling for new parliamentary elections in light of alleged irregularities during the 26 October polls, though the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) maintains that those elections were fair.
Police on 4 December raided the offices of several opposition parties and arrested the leader of the opposition Coalition for Change grouping, former education and justice minister Nika Gvaramia, for allegedly organising and leading group violence.
On 14 December, a newly formed electoral college led by officials affiliated with the ruling Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia (GD-DG) party elected former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili as the president.
According to Control Risks analysts, the GD-DG party will likely retain core support across the country, notably through clientelism, but anti-government demonstrations are highly likely to continue, particularly in Tbilisi, as most of Georgia’s population remains pro-EU. Protesters will continue to call for new, fair and transparent elections, rather than try to remove the government by force. The government is highly unlikely to acquiesce to protesters’ demands and will adopt increasingly authoritarian methods to retain power.
Protesters will continue to call for new, fair and transparent elections, rather than try to remove the government by force.
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS
Unrest levels remained high in the US over Q4 2024, while a series of high-profile crime and terrorism events highlighted an increasingly volatile extremist landscape in the country. In Q4, 68% of unrest events targeted the government sector, with 40% of those demonstrations in relation to the Israel-Hamas war.
Leading up to the 5 November elections, Seerist recorded some instances of vandalism, including the burning of ballot boxes. Post-election, rallies occurred both to support and oppose Donald Trump’s victory.
Strikes constituted 7% of unrest events, with a dockworkers strike in October and nationwide work stoppages impacting the hospitality and retail sectors in December.
Unrest risks are expected to remain elevated into Q1 2025 as Trump takes office.
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Unrest in Georgia
Three high-profile events verified at the end of Q4 underline rising threats from extremist violence: a targeted shooting of a CEO in New York City, a vehicle ramming in New Orleans (Louisiana), and the explosion of a vehicle outside a hotel in Las Vegas (Nevada).
Seerist recorded a drop in the US PulseAI score and a spike in Fear emotion following the 31 December attacks in New Orleans and Las Vegas.
Ukraine
21 November
In Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk region, Russian missile strikes damaged one industrial enterprise and caused fires in the city, according to the governor; Russian President Putin claimed that an attack on Dnipro involved a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile.
48.437639, 34.995327
Location precision: Asset/building/business
Russia
17 December
On Ryazanskiy Prospekt in Moscow, the chief of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Defense Troops of Russia's armed forces and his assistant were killed when an improvised explosive device (IED) attached to the handle of a scooter exploded near the entrance to a residential building; a Ukrainian official claimed that the Ukrainian secret service carried out the attack.
55.728029, 37.740314
Location precision: Asset/building/business
Germany
20 December
At the Magdeburg Christmas market, Saxony-Anhalt, a vehicle drove into a crowd, killing six people, including a minor, and injuring at least 299 others; according to the authorities, the suspect acted out of "dissatisfaction with the treatment of Saudi Arabian refugees in Germany".
52.13175, 11.6395
Location precision: Street/neighbourhood
France
11 December
In Toulouse, Occitania, dozens of farmers in tractors blocked traffic on the A62 motorway at the Toulouse-Nord toll booth, clashing with police officers and rallying outside a nearby supermarket.
43.658252, 1.427489987 Location precision: Street/neighbourhood
Netherlands
7 November
Outside Johan Cruyff Arena, Amsterdam, at least five Israelis were injured and two others were reportedly missing after fans of an Israeli football club clashed with pro-Palestine protesters; several instances of vandalism were also reported.
52.314356, 4.941849
Location precision: Asset/building/business
United Kingdom
19 November
In Parliament Square, London, around 20,000 people, mainly farmers, rallied to protest plans to change inheritance tax law on agricultural properties.
51.501056, -0.126847
Location precision: Street/neighbourhood
Bolivia
27 October
In the Trópico region of the Cochabamba department, unidentified assailants ambushed former president Evo Morales' vehicle on the road, injuring the vehicle's driver; Morales later claimed it was an assassination attempt.
-16.994953, -65.227858 Location precision: Street/neighborhood
Brazil
13 November
Outside the Supreme Court (STF) in Brasília, a man who had failed to breach the court premises died after detonating a car bomb in a nearby parking lot and other explosives at a square in a suicide bombing attack.
-15.80256, -47.86198 Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
United States
4 December
In Midtown Manhattan, New York, a gunman shot dead the CEO of the UnitedHealthcare insurance company in a targeted attack outside a hotel at 1335 Avenue of the Americas; words were carved on the shell casings and bullets.
40.762435, -73.97874 Location precision: Street/neighborhood
Haiti
12 December
In the Cité Soleil area, in Port-au-Prince, Ouest department, gang members opened fire against residences; reports indicate that over 100 people died.
18.57857, -72.33534 Location precision: Street/neighborhood
México
9 November
On Avenida Circunvalación, Santiago de Querétaro, Querétaro, at least 10 people were killed and nine others were injured after four armed men opened gunfire at a bar; one of the attackers was arrested.
20.596052, -100.380879 Location precision: Asset/Building/Business
Syria
8 December
In Damascus, Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and Al-Fatah Al-Mubin militants claimed to have captured the whole city, reportedly without any opposition as Syrian regime forces withdrew and surrendered.
33.4922254, 36.288692777
Location precision: City
Syria
9 December
At Latakia port, Latakia governorate, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) targeted naval assets belonging to former President Bashar al-Assad's regime with airstrikes; no casualties were reported but at least six naval vessels were destroyed.
35.53216575, 35.77585458
Location precision: Street/neighbourhood
Iran
26 October
At the Shahroud Space Center, Semnan province, Israeli airstrikes reportedly targeted a military base used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, destroying three S-300 air defence systems.
36.200519, 55.333342
Location precision: Asset/building/business
Lebanon
17 November
In Ras Al Nabaa district, Beirut, Israeli airstrikes targeted Hizbullah sites in the area, killing at least seven people including Hizbullah's media relations officer, Mohammed Afif, and injuring 16 other people.
33.881427, 35.509694
Location precision: Street/neighbourhood
Yemen
4 October
At Hodeidah International Airport (HOD), Hodeidah province, US and UK warplanes targeted the area with airstrikes; the extent of the material damage was not reported.
14.750697, 42.98
Location precision: Asset/building/business
Niger
10 December
In Chatoumane, Téra, Tillabéri, unidentified militants attacked the area, killing 91 soldiers and around 40 civilians, while 26 attackers were also killed, according to several media outlets; the junta government denied the claims.
13.96991, 0.54824
Location precision: City
Ethiopia
2 October
In Ayimba, Amhara region, an alleged military drone strike reportedly killed 30 people and damaged property.
12.533248, 37.302999
Location precision: City
Sudan
7 December
In Umm Al-Qura, Gezira, Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed to have captured the town, after losing it to the army (SAF) earlier in the week; 270 people were killed and 40 combat vehicles were seized/destroyed.
14.434704, 33.775749
Location precision: City
Ghana
9 December
In Tepa, Ashanti region, suspected political thugs aligned with the National Democratic Congress (NDC) party torched the Electoral Commission (EC) office, while also firing gunshots that left several people injured.
7.005381, -2.166822
Location precision: City
Mozambique
7 November
In Maputo, thousands of residents protested across multiple neighbourhoods against the ruling Frelimo party; clashes with police erupted, who fired live rounds, killing three protestors and wounding 56 others.
-25.948666, 32.576183
Location precision: City
China
11 November
In Xiangzhou, Zhuhai, Guangdong province, a man rammed a vehicle into a group of people outside the Zhuhai Sports Centre, killing 35 and injuring 43, in an alleged hit-and-run attack; the suspect, a 62-year-old man, was arrested.
22.27778, 113.53084
Location precision: Asset/building/business
Pakistan
26 November
In Islamabad, at least 100 police personnel were injured after clashes between PTI supporters and police while they were attempting to converge at D-Chowk, demanding the release of former PM Imran Khan from prison.
33.729270, 73.093138
Location precision: Street/neighbourhood
Afghanistan
11 December
In Kabul, the Afghan Minister for Refugees, Khalil Rahman Haqqani, and three of his bodyguards were killed in a suicide bombing at the Ministry of Repatriation and Refugees building; ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.
34.494941, 69.160639
Location precision: Asset/building/business
South Korea
21 December
In the Gwanghwamun area, Seoul, about 300,000 people gathered to demand the arrest and impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol, a week after the president was impeached over his short-lived declaration of martial law; tens of thousands of counter-protesters were also present.
37.575877,126.976812
Location precision: Street/neighbourhood
Australia
6 December
In Ripponlea, Melbourne, Victoria, unidentified attackers set the Adass Israel Synagogue of Melbourne on fire, causing severe material damage and leaving one person injured; the arson was designated as a terror attack.
-37.87587, 144.99592
Location precision: Street/neighbourhood
NOTABLE Q4 VERIFIED EVENTS
Click on an event below for more details.
68% of unrest events targeted the government sector.
SOUTH KOREA
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS
South Korea was embroiled in a political crisis that sparked large-scale protests towards the end of Q4, following President Yoon Suk-yeol's brief declaration of martial law on 3 December. Although the exact intentions of Yoon’s declaration remain unclear, it is an outcome of years of confrontation between the president and the opposition-controlled National Assembly (parliament).
In the lead-up to the president’s impeachment on 14 December, daily mass protests organised by various civil society groups and trade unions erupted across major cities, especially in Seoul, Daejeon and Gwangju, demanding his resignation. As a result, South Korea recorded a five-fold increase in verified unrest events in Q4 compared with Q3, with 78% of the events being linked to Yoon's impeachment. Further political turmoil and unrest are likely in Q1 2025 as a Seoul court extended an arrest warrant for Yoon on 7 January, while he and his ruling People Power Party seek to delay his criminal investigations and the Constitutional Court process.
The main protests calling for Yoon’s resignation began in the Gwanghwamun and Seoul City Hall areas of the capital, which was the focal point for anti-Yoon demonstrations. The main protest site briefly shifted to the National Assembly in mid-December 2025 during impeachment proceedings. Since Yoon's impeachment on 14 December, there has been a notable shift in protest locations, particularly since 25 December, with demonstrations increasingly taking place near the president’s official residence in Hannam-dong, where protesters were demanding his arrest.
South Korea recorded a five-fold increase in verified unrest events in Q4 compared with Q3.
Heatmap of verified unrest events in South Korea between October and December 2024.
President's official residence
National Assembly
Mozambique
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS
Protests first spiked around 19 October, after a senior official of the opposition Podemos and a lawyer involved in drafting an appeal to the Constitutional Council were shot dead in Maputo. Opposition leader and defeated presidential candidate Venacio Mondlane made repeated calls for nationwide demonstrations, a strike and a march in late October and again the start of December, when protests in major urban centres peaked. Mondlane's supporters protested in several cities and towns heeding his calls to ‘shut down’ the nation to denounce alleged fraud in the elections by the ruling Frelimo party. Tens of thousands of people participated in the demonstrations, which included blockades of major roads and border posts, vandalism and looting of businesses, disruption to commercial air travel, and widespread arson of Frelimo buildings.
In Mozambique, unrest events increased nearly tenfold from Q3 into Q4, triggered by waves of mass protests over the results of the 9 October 2024 general elections.
Attendance was highest in cities such as Maputo, Beira and Nampula, where the opposition is popular, but Seerist also recorded significant protest activity in other urban centres such as Xai-Xai (Gaza province), Quelimane (Zambezia province) and Nacala (Nampula province). Security forces responded forcefully from the outset, using tear gas and live rounds to disperse protesters, who often fatally attacked security personnel in return, resulting in the deaths of around 300 people.
Looking ahead to Q1 2025, Seerist’s most likely scenario sees the protest campaign eventually petering out in the weeks or, less likely, months following the inauguration of president-elect Daniel Chapo on 15 January.
The geographical distribution of government-related unrest in Mozambique – Q4
Oct 19
Opposition official and lawyer assassinated
Oct 29
Mondlane called for weeklong strike and march on Maputo
Dec 2
Mondlane reiterates calls for protests
Dec 23
Constitutional court confirms Chapo’s victory
Hover over the spikes for details on cause of unrest.
Syria
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS
Seerist verified 1,439 events in Syria in Q4 2024, a 45% increase on Q3 2024. This reflected the offensive led by Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and a coalition of other opposition forces that captured Damascus on 8 December following a week and a half of rapid territorial gains. The fall of the capital ended almost 54 years of Assad family rule and 62 years of Baathist rule in Syria. After more than a year of largely unchanging patterns of conflict between HTS-affiliated groups and Syrian regime forces in Aleppo and Idlib governorates, Seerist verified 417 war events from 27 November to 9 December and geolocated more than 200 neighborhoods, towns and assets captured from the Assad regime.
The fall of the capital ended almost 54 years of Assad family rule and 62 years of Baathist rule in Syria.
In response to these events, Israeli military forces entered Syria to establish a “buffer zone” along the Golan Heights, and conducted hundreds of airstrikes to destroy assets used by the former Syrian regime, including airports, ports, helicopters, aircraft, naval assets, ammunition stockpiles and chemical weapon depots.
Capture events (seizure of a location)
27 November - 9 December
War and terrorism events in Syria
12-26 November
War and terrorism events in Syria
27 November – 8 December
Israeli airstrikes in Syria
since 8 December
YEAR IN REVIEW 2024
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Ethnic Militants
Armed Opposition Group
Leftist Guerrillas
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2024
Terrorist attacks by main perpetrator type (2023-24)
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Attack Types
Top 10 Countries
West Africa
Global terrorism attacks surged in 2024, mainly due to a 65% increase in attacks by Islamist extremists driven by the conflict between Israel and Hizbullah militants in the Middle East.
READ MORE...
Terrorism: Main Perpetrators
Global terrorism attacks surged in 2024, mainly due to a 65% increase in attacks by Islamist extremists driven by the conflict between Israel and Hizbullah militants in the Middle East. Syria, the Palestinian Territories and Lebanon recorded the highest number of Islamist extremism incidents in 2024, while the MENA region accounted for 74% of attacks by Islamist extremist groups globally. In Africa, the number of Islamist extremist attacks slightly increased in Q4 over Q3, but numbers were mostly steady this year. Attacks by armed opposition groups also rose, more than doubling in Yemen and Congo (DRC), while Indonesia saw a 17% rise over 2023. Attacks by leftist guerillas, mostly in Colombia, remained steady year-on-year.
We recorded only a slight rise (two more attacks) by right-wing extremists in 2024 over the previous year. The perpetrator of the vehicle ramming attack in Magdeburg (Germany) on 20 December 2024 was described as an Islamophobe, though the exact motives remain unclear. The Israel-Hamas conflict and Syria's transition are likely to influence regional and global terrorism trends in 2025. Global terrorism threat levels – driven by extremists and religious hate crimes – will be elevated during major religious holidays, including the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, the Christian Easter period and the Jewish Passover (Pesach) holiday. In Western countries, the most likely targets for attacks will remain crowded public spaces, including shopping districts, and public events, while religious buildings or events are also potential targets.
Main Perpetrators
Attack Types
Top 10 Countries
West Africa
Firearms remain the most commonly used weapon in terrorist attacks, with the number of attacks involving firearms rising 8% year-on-year, but their use declined as a proportion of the total.
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Global terrorism events by attack type (% of annual total)
2023
2024
Hover over icon for attack type.
Firearm
Missile/rocket, RPG, mortar
Drone
Artillery
Arson
Knife/bladed weapon, beating
Grenade
IED, homemade, landmine
Car bomb
Suicide attack
Vehicle ramming
READ MORE...
Terrorism: Attack Types
Firearms remain the most commonly used weapon in terrorist attacks, with the number of attacks involving firearms rising 8% year-on-year, but their use declined as a proportion of the total. This reflects a large rise (more than double) in the number of attacks using missiles, rockets, RPGs and mortars, mainly due to conflict in the Middle East, which also drove a 90% increase in the number of artillery attacks.
The number of drone attacks more than quadrupled, with most attacks occurring in Israel, especially in Northern District, the Golan Heights, Haifa and Tel Aviv. Drone attacks also increased in Yemen, primarily over the Red Sea, where several Houthi drones were intercepted. In Syria and Iraq, drones were primarily used to target US and international military bases, often by Iran-backed militias in regions like Homs, Deir Ezzor and al-Hasakah (Syria), and Kurdistan and al-Anbar (Iraq). In Colombia, leftist FARC dissidents increasingly used drones to attack security forces, including police stations and military bases, particularly in Cauca, Valle del Cauca and Tolima departments, a trend likely to continue in 2025.
The number of vehicle ramming attacks rose 14% year-on-year in 2024, most occurring in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, primarily targeting Israeli security forces. The exception was the attack at the Christmas Market in Magdeburg (Germany) on 20 December, which left six dead and nearly 300 injured.
2023
2024
2023
Top Ten Countries
Islamist extremist terrorist attacks
1. Israel 2. Syria 3. Somalia 4. Pakistan 5. Palestinian Territories 6. Nigeria 7. Burkina Faso 8. Iraq 9. Congo (DRC) 10. Mali
2024
Top Ten Countries
Islamist extremist terrorist attacks
1. Israel
2. Syria 3. Palestinian Territories 4. Pakistan 5. Mozambique 6. Nigeria 7. Lebanon 8. Somalia 9. Mali 10. Burkina Faso
2023
2024
Main Perpetrators
Attack Types
Top 10 Countries
West Africa
Israel and Syria recorded the highest number of Islamist extremist terrorist attacks in both 2023 and 2024, though Israel in particular saw a huge rise in 2024 due to the conflict with Hamas and Hizbullah militants.
READ MORE...
Terrorism: Top Ten Countries
Israel and Syria recorded the highest number of Islamist extremist terrorist attacks in both 2023 and 2024, though Israel in particular saw a huge rise in 2024 due to the conflict with Hamas and Hizbullah militants. Mozambique saw a large rise in terrorism events in 2024, after a quieter 2023, as al-Sunah militants stepped up attacks in Cabo Delgado province against both security forces and civilians. The number of Islamist militant attacks in Pakistan and Nigeria was steady year-on-year, with the highest numbers still in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan (Pakistan), and Borno state (Nigeria). The number of terrorism events fell 60% in Somalia due to a sustained offensive by security forces against al-Shabab militants. Iraq has been on a downward trend since 2022 after the killing of several key Islamist leaders and improvements in the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces, and dropped out of the top ten countries for the first time.
Main Perpetrators
Attack Types
Top 10 Countries
West Africa
Islamist militant cells have continued to expand in West Africa in 2024. The security risk rating in Niger was raised to HIGH as militants staged several high-impact attacks in the western of the country. Seerist recorded a 141% year-on-year increase in terrorism-related events in Niger. Meanwhile, the terrorism risk rating in northern Togo was also raised to HIGH amid repeated militant attacks. Seerist recorded a 175% rise in terrorism events in Togo compared with 2023. Al-Qaida affiliate Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM)’s operations, combined with frequent attacks against security forces in southern Burkina Faso and Niger, are likely to render Togo and Benin vulnerable to further incursions in 2025.
2023
2024
2023 Terrorism verified events
Benin, Niger, Togo
2023
2024
2024 Terrorism verified events
Benin, Niger, Togo
TERRORISM
UNREST
CRIME
WAR
Main Perpetrators
Africa Elections
APAC Elections
Climate Unrest
Israel and Hamas/Hizbullah
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Unrest incidents by perpetrator type, 2023-24
2023
2024
The key drivers of unrest in 2024 were the Israel-Hamas conflict, farmers’ concerns, environmentalism, cost of living pressures and inflation, elections and immigration issues.
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Unrest: Main Perpetrators
The key drivers of unrest in 2024 were the Israel-Hamas conflict, farmers’ concerns, environmentalism, cost of living pressures and inflation, elections and immigration issues. Besides a large increase in labour-related unrest in 2024 compared with 2023, Seerist recorded a spike in unrest by animal rights activists, though numbers remain low and actions largely peaceful, with 59% of the total occurring in Europe - France, Italy, Germany, Austria and Turkey. Right-wing activism rose 59% year-on-year, mostly in India, the UK, Germany, the US and Israel, but also in Australia.
In the UK, a wave of anti-immigration protests occurred in July and August 2024 in several cities. Several businesses were looted and set on fire, projectiles were thrown at security forces, while injuries and arrests were reported in some instances. Ongoing protest campaigns by farmers in Europe and India are likely to drive a spike in unrest incidents in Q1 2025.
The Israel-Hamas conflict will also likely continue to drive activism in 2025, predominantly in North America, the Middle East, Europe and Australia. Environmental activists will target businesses, transport hubs and government assets to protest over the perceived inaction in addressing climate change, albeit at a slower pace during the winter season.
Red – Arson Purple – Vandalism Blue – Riots Green – Protests
Anti-Immigration unrest in the UK,
July - August 2024
Main Perpetrators
Africa Elections
APAC Elections
Climate Unrest
Israel and Hamas/Hizbullah
Government-related Unrest, 2024
Senegal
Comoros
Ghana
Government-related Unrest, 2024
Senegal
Comoros
Ghana
Government-related Unrest, 2024
Senegal
Comoros
Ghana
Election-related unrest took place in several African countries in 2024 including Comoros, Ghana and Senegal.
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Unrest: Africa Elections
Election-related unrest took place in several African countries in 2024 including Comoros, Ghana and Senegal. Electoral fraud claims led to widespread unrest in Comoros in January 2024. Protesters attacked a police station, looted a government official's home and set fire to several cars. Nationwide protests took place in Senegal in February 2024 following a delay to the presidential election: demonstrators blocked roads, looted stores and clashed with police. Election-related unrest also took place in South Africa ahead of the 29 May general election and in Nigeria in the lead up to the Edo (September) and Ondo (November) state gubernatorial elections.
In Ghana, clashes broke out between police and opposition supporters over general election results in December 2024. Opposition supporters ransacked and torched the Electoral Commission offices in Damango (Savannah) and Tea (Ashanti). Peaceful elections took place in several countries in 2024 including Chad, Madagascar and Namibia. Fewer African countries will head to the polls in 2025, such as Tanzania, Cameroon, and Côte d’Ivoire, but major unrest is not expected.
Main Perpetrators
Africa Elections
Unrest events in New Caledonia related to the electoral roll expansion,
Jan to Dec 2024
Unrest events in New Caledonia (protests, looting and arson) related to the electoral roll expansion,
Jan to Dec 2024
APAC Elections
Climate Unrest
Israel and Hamas/Hizbullah
The APAC region – as with Africa – witnessed several bouts of election-related unrest.
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Unrest: APAC Elections
The APAC region – as with Africa – witnessed several bouts of election-related unrest. In Indonesia, a succession of protests erupted in August 2024 in response to the government’s attempt to overturn a constitutional ruling on electoral thresholds for the 2024 regional elections (Pilkada). In India, the 2024 general elections proceeded relatively peacefully without any major incidents, though hundreds of related protests were recorded, primarily driven by election irregularities and candidate nominations.
New Caledonia experienced a prolonged period of unrest following the French government’s proposal to amend the constitution to grant voting rights to long-term residents. The month-long protests, beginning on 13 May, were characterised by arson, looting and road blockades, particularly in the capital Nouméa. The unrest subsided after French President Emmanuel Macron announced the suspension of the reform in June 2024. However, delayed provincial elections, now set for late 2025 instead of December 2024, may reignite unrest and disrupt business operations.
Main Perpetrators
Africa Elections
Israel and Hamas/Hizbullah
APAC Elections
Climate Unrest
Unrest by environmental activists decreased by 15% year-on-year, but Seerist observed an increase in climate-related protests at airports, power assets, construction sites and international institutions throughout 2024.
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Climate-related unrest by Main Sector 2023 and 2024
2023
2024
Unrest: Climate-related Unrest
Seerist recorded fewer road and rail blockades by climate activists in 2024 compared with the previous year, but protests at airports more than doubled. Most of these took place in Germany, where The Last Generation activists staged disruptive actions from May to October at airports including Munich (MUC), Frankfurt (FRA), Berlin (BER) and Stuttgart (STR). Activists glued themselves to runways and disrupted flights in opposition to the fossil fuel industry. Similar protests were reported in France, the UK and the Netherlands.
Climate protests against construction projects rose 123% year on year in 2024, particularly in France, Austria, Germany and Italy. While many protests were related to the construction of motorways and high-speed trains, we recorded several against the construction of mega-reservoirs in western France (Nouvelle-Aquitaine), planned LNG terminals, power plants and factory expansion. Climate protests related to international institutions also increased year-on-year, by 50%, as activists rallied during the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos (Switzerland), the COP29 summit in Baku (Azerbaijan), and
several G7 meetings in Italy. These protests were largely peaceful, with minor road blockades and paint thrown at several buildings.
Climate protests related to the power sector increased 19% year-on-year, with incidents in France, Germany, Australia and Norway opposing nuclear and coal power plants, and various energy projects. In Norway, environmentalist activists rallied alongside pro-Palestinian supporters to oppose some energy companies' interactions with Israeli businesses.
Environmentalist unrest in Europe related to aviation, construction and international institutions, 2024
Main Perpetrators
Africa Elections
Israel and Hamas/Hizbullah
APAC Elections
Climate Unrest
Seerist verified 8,265 unrest events in 2024 related to the conflicts between Israel and Hamas/Hizbullah across the globe.
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Unrest: Protests related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas/Hizbullah
Seerist verified 8,265 unrest events in 2024 related to the conflicts between Israel and Hamas/Hizbullah across the globe. Approximately 3,800 took place in the MENA region, 46% of the global total. Protests began in Q4 2023 following the 7 October Hamas attack and Israel’s blockade and subsequent ground operations in Gaza: October 2023 saw the highest monthly total of global protests. Another spike in protests took place in May 2024, around the start of Israel’s Rafah offensive, which accounts for the increase in protests in Q2 2024, chiefly driven by a surge in protest in Americas and Europe regions. The level of protests in the MENA region has stayed steady quarter-on-quarter since the start of the conflict, though this conceals some monthly variation.
In Q4 2024, we verified more than 1,760 global unrest events related to the conflicts, a very slight increase on Q3, with the MENA region accounting for just 55% of the global total. Unrest in the the MENA region has remained steady from Q3, but there were notable declines in Syria, Yemen and Israel, while unrest levels in Morocco jumped 33%. Q4 2024 saw a a 30% rise in protests in Europe. Unrest events related to the conflicts rose by 34% in the UK quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 22% of related unrest in Europe and CIS. The Netherlands also saw a quarterly rise, as did France, which saw a significant jump in unrest related to the conflict.
TERRORISM
UNREST
CRIME
WAR
Organized Crime in South America
Levels of organized crime in South America remained steady overall in 2024, though a few countries saw significant changes over 2023. Peru saw a nearly 70% rise in crime events, with extortion and violence by OCGs primarily targeting the transport sector. This surge in crime prompted the declaration of a state of emergency in the Lima and Callao regions in September. Ecuador’s security environment was challenging, with crime events constituting 84% of all events Seerist verified there, with organized criminal groups (OCGs) responsible for 43% of these. Despite President Daniel Noboa’s hardline stance, the situation is likely to worsen in 2025 as OCGs are likely to escalate violence as they seek control over illicit revenues, particularly in militarized port cities like Guayaquil.
In Brazil, crime levels remained steady year-on-year, driven by targeted shootings, armed clashes with security forces, and robberies. Similarly, Chile also saw little change over 2023, but gun violence was notably high, with 77% of incidents involving firearms. This trend was exacerbated by the increasingly consolidated presence of OCGs and rising availability of firearms in illegal markets. Furthermore, a wave of ATM robberies involving the use of explosives was recorded in Chile throughout Q4. Argentina's Rosario (Santa Fe) remained the city most impacted by OCGs, accounting for 41% of all crime events perpetrated by organized criminals in the country, while the capital Buenos Aires saw a 38% increase in criminal violence, with vehicle hijackings growing 60% compared with 2023.
Overall, South America will continue to face security challenges linked to organized crime in 2025 due to the growing capabilities of OCGs and intensifying turf wars, driving the risk of exposure to violence for business personnel and bystanders.
Ecuador
Peru
Chile
Argentina
Brazil
Crime in South America
2023
2024
TERRORISM
UNREST
CRIME
WAR
Sudan
Myanmar
Ukraine + Russia
Israel/Palestinian territories/Lebanon
In Sudan, the humanitarian and operational environment has continued to deteriorate since the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began in April 2023.
The geographical distribution of War events in Sudan 2023 and 2024
2023
2024
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War: Major Conflict: Sudan
In Sudan, the humanitarian and operational environment has continued to deteriorate since the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began in April 2023. The SAF closed in on Wad Madani, capital of Gezira state, while defending El Fasher in the mostly RSF-controlled Darfur region. Seerist recorded a 17.2% year-on-year increase in War events in Sudan in 2024. The conflict intensified south of Khartoum, along the White and Blue Nile rivers, while the RSF-controlled Darfur region had fewer incidents than in 2023, except for the SAF-controlled El Fasher city. Both sides have used heavy artillery against rival positions, with the SAF conducting airstrikes and RSF using loitering munitions. Delays to ceasefire negotiations will most likely persist in 2025, despite international pressure.
Sudan
Airstrikes in 2023
Airstrikes in 2024
Airstrikes in 2023
Airstrikes in 2024
Myanmar
Ukraine + Russia
Israel/Palestinian territories/Lebanon
In Myanmar, verified war events decreased by about 27% year-on-year, but the frequency of military airstrikes more than doubled in 2024 compared to 2023.
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War: Major Conflict: Myanmar
In Myanmar, verified war events decreased by about 27% year-on-year, but the frequency of military airstrikes more than doubled in 2024 compared to 2023. The increase in airstrikes is particularly evident in Rakhine state, northern Shan state, and Sagaing region, as the military authorities intensify efforts to prevent resistance forces from capturing more towns and cities during the second phase of Operation 1027 (an offensive against the military government that began in June 2024).
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In 2024, Seerist’s Intelligence Team verified more than 18,200 war events in Ukraine (representing a 15% annual decrease) and more than 8,300 war events in Russia (a 237% annual increase).
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War: Major Conflict: Ukraine and Russia
In 2024, Seerist’s Intelligence Team verified more than 18,200 war events in Ukraine (representing a 15% annual decrease) and more than 8,300 war events in Russia (a 237% annual increase). Russian airstrikes in Ukraine increased by 120% in 2024, while drone attacks increased by 76%. Russian forces on 25 December launched long-range aerial attacks using ballistic missiles and drones to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and population centres, which led to blackouts in several regions. This followed a series of successful large-scale aerial campaigns carried out by Russian forces in 2024. During his annual press conference in December 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed his willingness to engage with US President-elect Donald Trump over a possible compromise with Ukraine, but also reiterated his maximalist demands for a peace agreement. Control Risks analysts assess that given Putin’s unchanged demands and belief in Russia’s military superiority, the conflict will likely continue in the coming months and potentially through all of 2025.
Lebanon
Israel
Gaza
War Events in Lebanon, 2024
Lebanon
Israel
Gaza
War Events in Gaza, 2024
Lebanon
Israel
Gaza
War Events in Israel, 2024
Sudan
Myanmar
Ukraine + Russia
Seerist has verified more than 15,44 war events since 7 October 2023, when Hamas launched a major attack in Israel killing around 1,200 people and taking over 250 hostages.
Israel/Palestinian territories/Lebanon
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War: Major Conflict: Israel/Palestinian territories/Lebanon
Seerist has verified more than 15,44 war events since 7 October 2023, when Hamas launched a major attack in Israel killing around 1,200 people and taking over 250 hostages. War events in Lebanon increased by 56% in Q4 over Q3, primarily due to the continued rise in Israeli airstrikes following the 17 September pager attack and subsequent Israeli incursion into Lebanon on 1 October. While the longevity of the 26 November ceasefire is uncertain and implementation will likely be slow and incomplete, the ceasefire is likely to hold in Q1 2025 and Israeli military activity in southern Lebanon will remain limited.
Similarly, war events in Israel increased by 26% in Q4 over Q3, but since the ceasefire with Hizbullah we recorded only 31 war events to 31 December. In accordance with the terms of the ceasefire, Hizbullah militants have not conducted any cross-border attacks since 2 December. Hamas’s military capabilities have also been heavily degraded and the pace, intensity and efficacy of their attacks on Israel will likely continue to decline.
Unlike Israel and Lebanon, war and terrorism events in the Gaza Strip have remained consistent throughout 2024, decreasing only slightly in Q4 over Q3. Negotiations between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire in Gaza will continue in January. The probability of a ceasefire in the first months of 2025 is high, even as early as January. Hamas is likely to soften its negotiating stance and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s domestic popularity in recent months will likely give him more latitude to strike a deal.
TERRORISM
UNREST
CRIME
WAR
Region: Europe Country: France Category; Sub Category: Security, Strike Unionized port workers have called for intermittent, four-hour strikes on 7, 9, 13, 15, 17, 21, 23, 27, 29 and 31 January at ports across France over issues related to the pension reform and the retirement age. The strikes will be held for four hours between 10:00 and 16:00 (local time). Additionally, overtime and 'exceptional shifts' will not be honored during January. Disruptions in port operations during these strike periods may significantly affect the handling, loading and unloading of goods, as well as processing times and logistics flows.
Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
January 7-31
Port workers strike
12 January - 16 February
Legislative elections in Comoros
Region: Africa Country: Comoros Category; Sub Category: Political (election), Election Legislative and municipal elections are due to be held in January and February 2025. President Azali Assoumani on 12 October announced that the first round of elections will be held on 12 January, while a second round will be held on 16 February, which is the same day as the municipal elections. The 14 January 2024 presidential election process, which was marred with allegations of opposition suppression and electoral fraud, has exacerbated mistrust and concerns over the integrity of the electoral process held by stakeholders, such as opposition parties and citizens. Nevertheless, a section of opposition parties have united under the umbrella of the United Opposition of the Comoros, though they are yet to indicate whether they will be participating amid concerns about transparency and the overall democratic process. Opposition parties in 2020 boycotted the legislative and municipal elections, resulting in a majority for the ruling Convention for the Renewal of the Comoros (CRC) party. Factors such as a weak and divided opposition, especially amid boycotting plans, and low voter turnout are likely to result in another legislative majority for the CRC. The threat of political unrest will remain elevated ahead of the local elections. Unrest is likely to pose limited direct threats to businesses and will primarily occur near locations associated with the electoral process or political parties.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Crime, Political
Region: Asia & The Pacific Country: India Category; Sub Category: Holiday, Religious The Maha Kumbh Mela is a Hindu festival that occurs once in every 12 years in Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh and is dubbed as the world's largest religious pilgrimage. Over 400 million people are expected to attend the 45-day event that will see multiple rituals and processions taking place. Majority of the participants will congregate at banks of Triveni Sangam, the intersection of the Ganges and Yamuna rivers. One of the most popular days of the festival is 29 January when the Mauni Amavasya Snan (Royal Bath) will occur. Heightened security measures have been implemented, including the deployment of over 1,000 security personnel, 102 additional road checkpoints, and increased surveillance measures. Significant travel disruptions can be expected in the city throughout the duration of the festival.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Crime, Transportation
13 January - 26 February
Maha Kumbh Mela 2025
February 9
Parliamentary elections
Region: Europe & CIS Country: Kosovo Category; Sub Category: Political (election), Election Kosovo will elect all 120 members of the Assembly (unicameral parliament). The governing Self-Determination Movement (Vetevendosje, LVV) of Prime Minister Albin Kurti, which as of early January was leading all credible opinion polls with approximately 47% of the vote, is likely to win re-election. The lead-up to the election is likely to be characterised by political tensions in Serb-majority northern Kosovo that may involve protests and clashes between Kosovo Police and armed elements backed by Kosovo’s neighbour Serbia. Actions by the Kosovan government that are perceived as provocative by ethnic Serbs, such as the Kosovan board of elections’ decision (later overturned) not to certify the participation in the elections of the ethnic Serb Party the Serb List (Srpska Lista, SL), will exacerbate the credible threat of low-level violence or civil unrest in advance of and immediately following the election.
Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest
February 9
General election
Region: Europe & CIS Country: Kosovo Category; Sub Category: Political (election), Election Kosovo will elect all 120 members of the Assembly (unicameral parliament). The governing Self-Determination Movement (Vetevendosje, LVV) of Prime Minister Albin Kurti, which as of early January was leading all credible opinion polls with approximately 47% of the vote, is likely to win re-election. The lead-up to the election is likely to be characterised by political tensions in Serb-majority northern Kosovo that may involve protests and clashes between Kosovo Police and armed elements backed by Kosovo’s neighbour Serbia. Actions by the Kosovan government that are perceived as provocative by ethnic Serbs, such as the Kosovan board of elections’ decision (later overturned) not to certify the participation in the elections of the ethnic Serb Party the Serb List (Srpska Lista, SL), will exacerbate the credible threat of low-level violence or civil unrest in advance of and immediately following the election.
Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest
February 9
Super Bowl 2025
Region: Americas Country: United States Category; Sub Category: Other, Sporting Event The NFL Super Bowl LIX championship game is set to take place in New Orleans at the Caesars Superdome, hosting up to 83,000 spectators on 9 February 2025. Expect heightened security and localized traffic disruptions in the surrounding areas due to the influx of attendees and the high-profile nature of the event. Protests related to social justice, environmental issues, or corporate sponsorships may occur near the venue. Additionally, large-scale events like the Super Bowl require robust security measures to mitigate risks and ensure public safety. These measures could result in traffic disruptions around the venue, not only on the day of the event but also in the days leading up to it.
Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Crime, Transportation
Region: Europe & CIS Country: France Category; Sub Category: Other, Other France will host the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Summit at the Grand Palais in Paris on 10-11 February 2025. The event will bring together Heads of State and Government, leaders of international organizations, CEOs, representatives of academia, non-governmental organizations, policymakers, and industry experts to discuss the future of artificial intelligence. The summit’s focus on AI policy and ethics is likely to attract protests from activist groups expressing concerns about AI's impact on society and employment, its role in surveillance, and potential violations of data privacy, alongside the potential for labour strikes or protests, which may disrupt transportation as well as access to the venue and surrounding areas. The summit’s high-profile nature also increases the risk of terror threats and cyber attacks.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Crime, Terrorism, Transportation
February 10
The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Summit 2025
Region: Africa Country: Mauritania Category; Sub Category: Security, Strike Unionised teachers under nine primary and secondary education unions will strike nationwide, from 12 February to 19 February. The unions are demanding increased salaries, the cancelation of the "5+2" decision and the creation of a teacher's exchange program between provinces. Hundreds are likely to participate in the strike and disruption to school activities nationwide are possible.
Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest
February 12 – February 19
Primary and secondary education unions to strike in Mauritania
Region: Europe & CIS Country: Belgium Category; Sub Category: Security, Protest Workers affiliated with the FGTB union plan to stage nationwide protests to demand better public services. Thousands of people will attend the rallies. Increased police presence and transport disruptions are likely, especially in Brussels, but the protests are expected to be largely peaceful.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
February 13
Unionized workers protest
Region: Europe & CIS Country: Germany Category; Sub Category: Anniversary, National The anniversary of the Dresden bombings commemorates the victims of the allied bombing of Dresden in the Second World War. Rallies by neo-Nazi groups and supporters of the country's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party are common during the anniversary. Counter-rallies by anti-fascist groups are also common, which can lead to confrontations/localised scuffles between both groups.
Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
February 13
Anniversary of Dresden bombings
Region: Middle East & North Africa Country: Syria Category; Sub Category: Anniversary, National Druze Arab residents on both sides of the border have gathered each year to commemorate the anniversary of Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights in 1982, demanding the area be Syrian. Protests have in the past remained peaceful, however, with the 8 December Israeli military action in the Golan Heights and southern Syria, risk of unrest is heightened compared to previous years. Two protests in December 2024 and January 2025 in Quneitra governorate led to Israeli security forces opening fire on the protest.
Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Terrorism, Crime
February 14
Anniversary of the Israeli Annexation of the Golan Heights
Region: Asia & The Pacific, Middle East & North Africa Country: Pakistan, United Arab Emirates, India Category; Sub Category: Other, Sporting Event The ninth edition of the ICC Men's Champions Trophy will take place in Pakistan from 19 February to 9 March 2025. The eight-team tournament will feature 15 matches played across venues in Pakistan and Dubai. In Pakistan, Rawalpindi, Lahore, and Karachi will serve as the host cities. Lahore is scheduled to host the final on 9 March, unless India qualifies, in which case the match will be moved to Dubai. Additionally, the three group matches involving India and the first semi-final will be played in Dubai. All matches will be day-night encounters.
The tournament marks a significant return to Pakistan and is expected to draw global attention. Stringent security measures, including checkpoints, roadblocks, and heavy police presence, are likely to disrupt traffic and movement in host cities.
Given the historical tensions between India and Pakistan, matches involving these two nations may draw increased security concerns, including protests, political unrest, or clashes among rival fan groups. Previous matches have seen incidents of fan clashes and vandalism. Additionally, the Indian cricket authorities and the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) have expressed concerns about team India being a high-profile target for terrorist threats. This amplifies safety considerations, as Pakistan remains a target for terrorist activity, particularly as extremist organizations have previously targeted large-scale events in the region. Potential Severity: Medium Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Conflict, Terrorism, Transportation
February 19
International Cricket Council (ICC) Champions Trophy 2025
Region: Europe & CIS Country: Germany Category; Sub Category: Political (election), Election Germany will hold snap legislative elections. The centre-right Christian Democrats (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union, CDU/CSU) are likely to win a plurality of the votes. A centrist coalition of the CDU/CSU and centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains the most likely outcome of the elections. Potential Severity: Low Potential Impact Type: Unrest
February 23
Early parliamentary elections
Region: Middle East & North Africa Country: Algeria, Bahrain, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cabo Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Palestinian Territories, Qatar, Indonesia, Afghanistan, Brunei, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Turkiye, Syria, Togo, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Albania, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kosovo, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Madagascar, Malaysia, Malawi, Maldives, Mauritius, Nepal, North Macedonia, Philippines, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Uzbekistan
Category; Sub Category: Holiday, Religious Ramadan is an Islamic holy month marked by fasting during daylight hours. There will be more public celebrations and disruption in Arab and Muslim-majority countries. Security may be heightened around mosques and religious sites during this time due to increased risk of Islamist extremist attacks. Anticipate disruption to public services and businesses; business hours are shortened in some countries and some businesses will close entirely during fasting hours. Dates will be finalized according to the lunar sighting.
February 28 – March 29
Ramadan
Region: Americas Country: Uruguay
Category; Sub Category: Political; legislative President-elect Yamandú Orsi will be sworn in as the 43rd president of Uruguay on 1 March at the Legislative Palace in Montevideo, following his victory in the 24 November 2024 run-off elections against the centre-right ruling National Party (PN)’s candidate, Álvaro Delgado. After the inauguration ceremony, Orsi will proceed to the Executive Tower. Road closures and heightened security should be expected in the vicinity of both buildings due to the presence of high-ranking officials, executives and international delegations attending the event. While Orsi is not anticipated to face significant governability issues in the coming years, he plans to adopt a moderate approach to advance his legislative proposals. His administration is expected to maintain a stable business environment, focusing primarily on a social agenda.
Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Transportation; Political
March 1
Presidential Inauguration
Region: Africa Country: Ethiopia
Category; Sub Category: Holiday, National Adwa Victory Day commemorates Ethiopia's victory over Italian forces at the battle of Adwa (Tigray) in 1896. The celebration involves large parades across the country, particularly in the capital Addis Ababa, where thousands usually gather in Menelik II Square and other locations. Parades bring an elevated threat of petty crime, posing incidental threats to personnel, as well as travel disruption. Security forces violently disrupted celebratory gatherings in the capital in 2023, but events usually pass off peacefully.
Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Transportation
March 2
Adwa Victory Day
Region: Europe & CIS Country: United Kingdom, France, Italy, Ireland
Category; Sub Category: Other, Sporting Event The 2025 Six Nations Championship (known as the Guinness Men's Six Nations for sponsorship reasons) is a rugby union competition, featuring the men's national teams of England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland, and Wales. Matches span over seven weeks and will take place on Friday evenings, Saturdays, and Sundays, starting 31 January 2025 with a match between France and Wales at Stade de France, Saint-Denis, and ending with France against Scotland on 15 March 2025 at the same location. Expect heightened security and localized disruptions around stadiums and metropolitan areas hosting Six Nations matches. Although no specific threat has been identified, the April 2024 call for attacks on large sporting events from Islamic State-affiliated groups underscores the importance of heightened security at major venues. Key risks may include labor strikes, political and environmental activism, alcohol-related hooliganism, protests, labor strikes, and logistical challenges, particularly near stadiums, which could impact transportation and event access.
Potential severity: Low Potential impact type: Unrest, Terrorism, Transportation
March 15
2025 Six Nations Championship
Region: Americas Country: Mexico
Category; Sub Category: Political; campaign period The campaign period for the first round of judicial elections will start on 31 March, following the approval of a judicial reform in 2024. A total of 881 positions within the Federal Judicial Branch (PJF) will be up for election nationwide, with over 5,000 candidates participating in the campaign. The campaign period will conclude on 28 May, ahead of the elections scheduled for 1 June. The judicial reform was enacted on 15 September 2024 and will restructure the federal judiciary through the popular election of judges and Supreme Court (SCJN) justices. This reform has faced widespread disapproval across the country, including from PJF workers, who initiated a series of strikes throughout 2024. Numerous demonstrations against the reform have also occurred nationwide. Political violence typically rises during electoral campaign periods in Mexico, increasing security risks. Unrest risks are also expected to be high due to the discontent surrounding the judicial reform. There may be minor disruptions and low-level violence during rallies or other campaign events. Additionally, a wave of national demonstrations expressing disapproval of the judicial electoral process is also likely to occur.
Potential severity: Medium Potential impact type: Unrest; Crime; Political
March 30
Judicial elections campaign period
What to watch in Q1 2025
Click an event below for more information.
Low severity event
Medium severity event
Security Incident Report
Q4 2024
In this quarterly report, we extract key trends from Seerist data to analyse Q4 global patterns and provide forecasts on what's to come in the months ahead.
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Unrest events related to conflict between Israel and Hamas/Hizbullah by region Q4 2023 – Q4 2024
Q4 2023
Africa
Americas
200
Asia
Europe
MENA
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
NOTABLE Q4 VERIFIED EVENTS
TERRORISM: MAIN Perpetrators
TERRORISM: MAIN Perpetrators
YEAR IN REVIEW
Global terrorism attacks surged in 2024, mainly due to a 65% increase in attacks by Islamist extremists driven by the conflict between Israel and Hizbullah militants in the Middle East. Syria, the Palestinian Territories and Lebanon recorded the highest number of Islamist extremism incidents in 2024, while the MENA region accounted for 74% of attacks by Islamist extremist groups globally. In Africa, the number of Islamist extremist attacks slightly increased in Q4 over Q3, but numbers were mostly steady this year. Attacks by armed opposition groups also rose, more than doubling in Yemen and Congo (DRC), while Indonesia saw a 17% rise over 2023. Attacks by leftist guerillas, mostly in Colombia, remained steady year-on-year. We recorded only a slight rise (two more attacks) by right-wing extremists in 2024 over the previous year. The perpetrator of the vehicle ramming attack in Magdeburg (Germany) on 20 December 2024 was described as an Islamophobe, though the exact motives remain unclear. The Israel-Hamas conflict and Syria's transition are likely to influence regional and global terrorism trends in 2025. Global terrorism threat levels – driven by extremists and religious hate crimes – will be elevated during major religious holidays, including the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, the Christian Easter period and the Jewish Passover (Pesach) holiday. In Western countries, the most likely targets for attacks will remain crowded public spaces, including shopping districts, and public events, while religious buildings or events are also potential targets.
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Israel and Syria recorded the highest number of Islamist extremist terrorist attacks in both 2023 and 2024, though Israel in particular saw a huge rise in 2024 due to the conflict with Hamas and Hizbullah militants. Mozambique saw a large rise in terrorism events in 2024, after a quieter 2023, as al-Sunah militants stepped up attacks in Cabo Delgado province against both security forces and civilians. The number of Islamist militant attacks in Pakistan and Nigeria was steady year-on-year, with the highest numbers still in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan (Pakistan), and Borno state (Nigeria). The number of terrorism events fell 60% in Somalia due to a sustained offensive by security forces against al-Shabab militants. Iraq has been on a downward trend since 2022 after the killing of several key Islamist leaders and improvements in the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces, and dropped out of the top ten countries for the first time.
TERRORISM: TOP TEN
YEAR IN REVIEW
Israel and Syria recorded the highest number of Islamist extremist terrorist attacks in both 2023 and 2024, though Israel in particular saw a huge rise in 2024 due to the conflict with Hamas and Hizbullah militants. Mozambique saw a large rise in terrorism events in 2024, after a quieter 2023, as al-Sunah militants stepped up attacks in Cabo Delgado province against both security forces and civilians. The number of Islamist militant attacks in Pakistan and Nigeria was steady year-on-year, with the highest numbers still in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan (Pakistan), and Borno state (Nigeria). The number of terrorism events fell 60% in Somalia due to a sustained offensive by security forces against al-Shabab militants. Iraq has been on a downward trend since 2022 after the killing of several key Islamist leaders and improvements in the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces, and dropped out of the top ten countries for the first time.
2023 Terrorism verified events
Benin, Niger, Togo
TERRORISM: West Africa
YEAR IN REVIEW
Islamist militant cells have continued to expand in West Africa in 2024. The security risk rating in Niger was raised to HIGH as militants staged several high-impact attacks in the western of the country. Seerist recorded a 141% year-on-year increase in terrorism-related events in Niger. Meanwhile, the terrorism risk rating in northern Togo was also raised to HIGH amid repeated militant attacks. Seerist recorded a 175% rise in terrorism events in Togo compared with 2023. Al-Qaida affiliate Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM)’s operations, combined with frequent attacks against security forces in southern Burkina Faso and Niger, are likely to render Togo and Benin vulnerable to further incursions in 2025.
UNREST: MAIN Perpetrators
YEAR IN REVIEW
The key drivers of unrest in 2024 were the Israel-Hamas conflict, farmers’ concerns, environmentalism, cost of living pressures and inflation, elections and immigration issues. Besides a large increase in labour-related unrest in 2024 compared with 2023, Seerist recorded a spike in unrest by animal rights activists, though numbers remain low and actions largely peaceful, with 59% of the total occurring in Europe - France, Italy, Germany, Austria and Turkey. Right-wing activism rose 59% year-on-year, mostly in India, the UK, Germany, the US and Israel, but also in Australia. In the UK, a wave of anti-immigration protests occurred in July and August 2024 in several cities. Several businesses were looted and set on fire, projectiles were thrown at security forces, while injuries and arrests were reported in some instances. Ongoing protest campaigns by farmers in Europe and India are likely to drive a spike in unrest incidents in Q1 2025. The Israel-Hamas conflict will also likely continue to drive activism in 2025, predominantly in North America, the Middle East, Europe and Australia. Environmental activists will target businesses, transport hubs and government assets to protest over the perceived inaction in addressing climate change, albeit at a slower pace during the winter season.
Government-related Unrest in Senegal, 2024
Government-related Unrest in Ghana, 2024
UNREST: AFRICA ELECTIONS
YEAR IN REVIEW
Election-related unrest took place in several African countries in 2024 including Comoros, Ghana and Senegal. Electoral fraud claims led to widespread unrest in Comoros in January 2024. Protesters attacked a police station, looted a government official's home and set fire to several cars. Nationwide protests took place in Senegal in February 2024 following a delay to the presidential election: demonstrators blocked roads, looted stores and clashed with police. Election-related unrest also took place in South Africa ahead of the 29 May general election and in Nigeria in the lead up to the Edo (September) and Ondo (November) state gubernatorial elections. In Ghana, clashes broke out between police and opposition supporters over general election results in December 2024. Opposition supporters ransacked and torched the Electoral Commission offices in Damango (Savannah) and Tea (Ashanti). Peaceful elections took place in several countries in 2024 including Chad, Madagascar and Namibia. Fewer African countries will head to the polls in 2025, such as Tanzania, Cameroon, and Côte d’Ivoire, but major unrest is not expected.
Government-related Unrest in Comoros, 2024
UNREST: APAC ELECTIONS
YEAR IN REVIEW
The APAC region – as with Africa – witnessed several bouts of election-related unrest. In Indonesia, a succession of protests erupted in August 2024 in response to the government’s attempt to overturn a constitutional ruling on electoral thresholds for the 2024 regional elections (Pilkada). In India, the 2024 general elections proceeded relatively peacefully without any major incidents, though hundreds of related protests were recorded, primarily driven by election irregularities and candidate nominations. New Caledonia experienced a prolonged period of unrest following the French government’s proposal to amend the constitution to grant voting rights to long-term residents. The month-long protests, beginning on 13 May, were characterised by arson, looting and road blockades, particularly in the capital Nouméa. The unrest subsided after French President Emmanuel Macron announced the suspension of the reform in June 2024. However, delayed provincial elections, now set for late 2025 instead of December 2024, may reignite unrest and disrupt business operations.
Unrest by environmental activists decreased by 15% year-on-year, but Seerist observed an increase in climate-related protests at airports, power assets, construction sites and international institutions throughout 2024. Protests targeting the oil and gas, mining, maritime and entertainment sectors declined, while numbers targeting finance stayed stable year on year.
UNREST: CLIMATE-RELATED
YEAR IN REVIEW
Unrest by environmental activists decreased by 15% year-on-year, but Seerist observed an increase in climate-related protests at airports, power assets, construction sites and international institutions throughout 2024. Protests targeting the oil and gas, mining, maritime and entertainment sectors declined, while numbers targeting finance stayed stable year on year.
UNREST: Israel and Hamas/Hizbullah PROTESTS
YEAR IN REVIEW
Seerist verified 8,265 unrest events in 2024 related to the conflicts between Israel and Hamas/Hizbullah across the globe. Approximately 3,800 took place in the MENA region, 46% of the global total. Protests began in Q4 2023 following the 7 October Hamas attack and Israel’s blockade and subsequent ground operations in Gaza: October 2023 saw the highest monthly total of global protests. Another spike in protests took place in May 2024, around the start of Israel’s Rafah offensive, which accounts for the increase in protests in Q2 2024, chiefly driven by a surge in protest in Americas and Europe regions. The level of protests in the MENA region has stayed steady quarter-on-quarter since the start of the conflict, though this conceals some monthly variation. In Q4 2024, we verified more than 1,760 global unrest events related to the conflicts, a very slight increase on Q3, with the MENA region accounting for just 55% of the global total. Unrest in the the MENA region has remained steady from Q3, but there were notable declines in Syria, Yemen and Israel, while unrest levels in Morocco jumped 33%. Q4 2024 saw a a 30% rise in protests in Europe. Unrest events related to the conflicts rose by 34% in the UK quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 22% of related unrest in Europe and CIS. The Netherlands also saw a quarterly rise, as did France, which saw a significant jump in unrest related to the conflict.
Levels of organized crime in South America remained steady overall in 2024, though a few countries saw significant changes over 2023. Peru saw a nearly 70% rise in crime events, with extortion and violence by OCGs primarily targeting the transport sector. This surge in crime prompted the declaration of a state of emergency in the Lima and Callao regions in September. Ecuador’s security environment was challenging, with crime events constituting 84% of all events Seerist verified there, with organized criminal groups (OCGs) responsible for 43% of these. Despite President Daniel Noboa’s hardline stance, the situation is likely to worsen in 2025 as OCGs are likely to escalate violence as they seek control over illicit revenues, particularly in militarized port cities like Guayaquil.
CRIME: ORGANIZED CRIME IN SOUTH AMERICA
YEAR IN REVIEW
Levels of organized crime in South America remained steady overall in 2024, though a few countries saw significant changes over 2023. Peru saw a nearly 70% rise in crime events, with extortion and violence by OCGs primarily targeting the transport sector. This surge in crime prompted the declaration of a state of emergency in the Lima and Callao regions in September. Ecuador’s security environment was challenging, with crime events constituting 84% of all events Seerist verified there, with organized criminal groups (OCGs) responsible for 43% of these. Despite President Daniel Noboa’s hardline stance, the situation is likely to worsen in 2025 as OCGs are likely to escalate violence as they seek control over illicit revenues, particularly in militarized port cities like Guayaquil.
The geographical distribution of War events in Sudan 2023
WAR: SUDAN
YEAR IN REVIEW
In Sudan, the humanitarian and operational environment has continued to deteriorate since the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began in April 2023. The SAF closed in on Wad Madani, capital of Gezira state, while defending El Fasher in the mostly RSF-controlled Darfur region. Seerist recorded a 17.2% year-on-year increase in War events in Sudan in 2024. The conflict intensified south of Khartoum, along the White and Blue Nile rivers, while the RSF-controlled Darfur region had fewer incidents than in 2023, except for the SAF-controlled El Fasher city. Both sides have used heavy artillery against rival positions, with the SAF conducting airstrikes and RSF using loitering munitions. Delays to ceasefire negotiations will most likely persist in 2025, despite international pressure.
WAR: MYANMAR
YEAR IN REVIEW
In Myanmar, verified war events decreased by about 27% year-on-year, but the frequency of military airstrikes more than doubled in 2024 compared to 2023. The increase in airstrikes is particularly evident in Rakhine state, northern Shan state, and Sagaing region, as the military authorities intensify efforts to prevent resistance forces from capturing more towns and cities during the second phase of Operation 1027 (an offensive against the military government that began in June 2024).
WAR: UKRAINE + RUSSIA
YEAR IN REVIEW
In 2024, Seerist’s Intelligence Team verified more than 18,200 war events in Ukraine (representing a 15% annual decrease) and more than 8,300 war events in Russia (a 237% annual increase). Russian airstrikes in Ukraine increased by 120% in 2024, while drone attacks increased by 76%. Russian forces on 25 December launched long-range aerial attacks using ballistic missiles and drones to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and population centres, which led to blackouts in several regions. This followed a series of successful large-scale aerial campaigns carried out by Russian forces in 2024. During his annual press conference in December 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed his willingness to engage with US President-elect Donald Trump over a possible compromise with Ukraine, but also reiterated his maximalist demands for a peace agreement. Control Risks analysts assess that given Putin’s unchanged demands and belief in Russia’s military superiority, the conflict will likely continue in the coming months and potentially through all of 2025.
Seerist has verified more than 15,44 war events since 7 October 2023, when Hamas launched a major attack in Israel killing around 1,200 people and taking over 250 hostages. War events in Lebanon increased by 56% in Q4 over Q3, primarily due to the continued rise in Israeli airstrikes following the 17 September pager attack and subsequent Israeli incursion into Lebanon on 1 October. While the longevity of the 26 November ceasefire is uncertain and implementation will likely be slow and incomplete, the ceasefire is likely to hold in Q1 2025 and Israeli military activity in southern Lebanon will remain limited.
War Events in Lebanon, 2024
War Events in Israel, 2024
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