Q4 2025
Executive Summary
Unrest
War
Terrorism
Features
Africa: Election-related unrest
APAC: Bilateral political and border conflicts
Notable Q4 Verified Events
What to Watch: Q1 2026
Security Incident Report
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Seerist’s Intelligence Team verified more than 33,300 war, terrorism, unrest and organized crime events globally in Q4 2025.
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Verified unrest events in the MENA region declined by over 16% from Q3 to Q4 2025. Morocco, which had the highest unrest levels in Q3, saw a 60% drop in Q4 following the Israel-Gaza ceasefire; GenZ212 protests that began in late September also dissipated in October. Israel, where unrest surged in Q3, experienced a 52% fall in Q4, also tied to the ceasefire. In contrast, we recorded a 76% rise in unrest events in Syria, partly due to sectarian demonstrations in Latakia and Tartous. Iran recorded the highest levels of unrest in the region, rising by 37% in Q4. Long-running disaffection over economic and labor issues intensified after 29 December as traders and shopkeepers launched protests and strikes over high inflation and currency depreciation in Iran’s largest protests since 2022.
Heatmap of verified unrest events in Iran, Q4 2025
Unrest events in the Americas fell nearly 10% in Q4 2025 compared with Q3. Levels of unrest in the US were broadly stable. Protests against President Donald Trump’s administration declined by 16.5%, but demonstrations linked to immigration policies rose sharply, by 51.5%, largely driven by opposition to National Guard deployments supporting Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations. In Mexico, verified unrest events fell 32% in Q4. However, unrest in the agricultural sector surged, with widespread blockades by agricultural and transport workers demanding improved security disrupting manufacturing and industrial logistics. Ecuador saw a 29% drop in unrest events in Q4 following the end of a nationwide strike over the removal of diesel subsidies that had previously led to major highway blockades.
Americas verified unrest events by target sector, Q4 2025
Government: 2,119 (49.38%)
Law enforcement/Legal: 725 (16.9%)
Education: 353 (8.23%)
Road: 346 (8.06%)
Agriculture: 208 (4.85%)
Healthcare: 176 (4.10%)
Retail: 110 (2.56%)
Private Property: 105 (2.45%)
Construction: 78 (1.82%)
Military: 71 (1.65%)
Unrest events in Africa rose by 15.6% from Q3 to Q4 2025. Cameroon and Tanzania recorded sharp increases following election-related unrest, while Benin saw protests linked to a failed coup attempt. In Cameroon, demonstrators blocked roads and set buildings and vehicles on fire, while security forces opened fire on protesters. Côte d’Ivoire also saw election-related unrest in October, though strict crackdowns limited violence and unrest subsided after the polls. Protests surged in Madagascar following a coup in October, while Guinea-Bissau saw protests in December following a coup in November. In Somalia, protests escalated in late December over Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. In contrast, South Africa recorded a 49% decline in unrest, partly reflecting fewer government-focused demonstrations amid energy sector improvements.
Top 5 countries for unrest in Africa, Q3 v Q4 2025
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Verified unrest events in the APAC region remained relatively stable quarter-on-quarter, despite increases in Australia (61%) and India (20%). Labor protests over wages and working conditions rose approximately 70% in Q4 as governments prepared their 2026 budgets, particularly in Australia, India, Indonesia, and South Korea. Thousands of unionized airport workers went on strike across 15 airports in South Korea on 1 and 4 October, demanding better employee benefits. Australia also experienced a spike in unrest in October, driven by anti-immigration rallies and related counter-protests, as well as the nationwide “Never Again Is Now” movement against anti-Semitism. In India, the implementation of four new Labor Codes on 21 November sparked nationwide protests demanding their repeal, while the fatal lynching of a Hindu man in Bangladesh on 18 November triggered widespread condemnation.
Verified unrest events involving labor / trade unions, selected APAC countries, Q3-Q4 2025
Australia
India
Indonesia
South Korea
160
Unrest across Europe increased by 6% from Q3 to Q4 2025, with a more pronounced rise in Western Europe. France was the main driver, with a 35% quarterly increase, largely due to farmer protests over the Mercosur deal and issues related to agricultural policies. Germany continued to see widespread demonstrations, over Palestine, climate, and military policy. Italy experienced sustained protest activity linked to Gaza, fiscal policy, and defense spending. In Greece, coordinated blockades by farmers intensified from late November, hindering freight movement and leading to longer detours, higher costs and delivery delays for business. The farmers were protesting over delayed subsidies related to large-scale EU subsidy fraud and corruption, but also high production costs, falling producer prices and other issues.
Verified unrest events in Greece, Jul-Dec 2025
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MENA
Americas
Africa
APAC
Europe
WAR
BACK
Verified war events in the MENA region fell by almost 30% in Q4 2025, driven by an 81% drop in Israel and a 47% decrease in the Palestinian Territories following the October ceasefire. Despite this decline, the Palestinian Territories recorded the highest number of war events, split evenly between the Gaza Strip (50.4%) and the West Bank (49.6%). Despite the Gaza ceasefire, Israeli military raids and settler attacks in the West Bank will likely continue at steady levels. In contrast, war events in Yemen rose by nearly 45%, culminating in a significant escalation in late December as the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) declared control of Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra, prompting Saudi airstrikes on Mukalla port and elsewhere.
Verified war events in the Americas declined by 17% in Q4 2025 compared with Q3, remaining concentrated in Colombia, which accounted for all but one recorded war events in the region. Conflict there was largely driven by continued clashes between security forces and leftist armed groups, with around 62% of incidents occurring in Cauca and Norte de Santander departments, both of which are key areas of insurgent activity. Colombian security forces also carried out targeted operations against FARC dissident groups, including airstrike-supported missions in Arauca and Amazonas departments aimed at disrupting command structures and territorial control. Despite the quarterly decline, persistent insurgent activity and continuing counter-insurgency operations mean the security environment is likely to remain volatile in Q1 2026, with further localized clashes and military operations.
Verified war events in Colombia, Q4 2025
War events in Africa increased 15% from Q3 to Q4 2025. Somalia recorded a 41% rise, largely driven by AFRICOM airstrikes targeting Islamic State positions in the north. In Sudan, the number of war events remained broadly steady amid continued clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) across Kordofan and Darfur. The RSF captured El Fasher city, the SAF’s last stronghold in Darfur, on 26 October following an 18-month siege. Mali saw a 35% rise as security operations intensified in response to militant attacks that severely disrupted fuel supplies bound for the capital Bamako. Military coups were recorded in Madagascar (14 October), following mass Gen-Z protests, and Guinea-Bissau (26 November), while a coup attempt was thwarted in Benin on 7 December.
Verified war events in Africa, attack types, Q4 2025
In the APAC region, verified war events increased 26% in Q4, driven primarily by the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia between 7 and 27 December. Both countries engaged in gunfire, airstrikes, and artillery attacks, particularly in Sa Kaeo province (Thailand) and in Preah Vihear and Oddar Meanchey provinces (Cambodia). In Myanmar, war events remained relatively stable quarter-on-quarter, with fighting concentrated in the Sagaing and Magway regions, as well as Rakhine and Shan states. Fighting spiked on 28 December, the day of the general elections, with most clashes in Sagaing Region. In Taiwan, Chinese military aircraft incursions across the median line of the Taiwan Strait remained consistent, averaging 27 per month, with a peak of 90 aircraft on 29 December during the "Justice Mission 2025" military exercises.
Verified war events in Myanmar between October and December 2025.
Seerist recorded a 10% quarterly increase in war events in Ukraine in Q4 2025, following an 18% rise in Q3. War events in Russia fell 12% in Q4, after a sharp 76% increase in the previous quarter. The trend of increased use of drones also continued in Q4. Under Control Risks’ most likely scenario, both Ukraine and Russia will sustain enough capacity in 2026 to continue the ground conflict. Although Ukraine’s situation is worse, it still has troops and can lower the draft age to get more recruits. Some analysts have also suggested that Ukraine’s core issue is not so much raising soldiers as training them properly, which can be addressed with reforms. Russia, meanwhile, has defied expectations and sustained its own recruitment in 2025 at high enough levels to offset significant losses.
Verified War Events Using Drones in Russia and Ukraine: Totals vs. % of War Events
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Verified war events, Palestinian Territories, Q3-Q4 2025
Gaza Strip
West Bank
Gun (firearm): 330 (37.16%)
Airstrike: 136 (15.32%)
Military drone: 124 (13.96%)
Artillery: 115 (12.95%)
Mortar: 91 (10.25%)
Capture: 42 (4.73%)
MANPAD: 22 (2.48%)
Arson/Firebomb: 13 (1.46%)
Robbery: 9 (1.01%)
Knife/bladed weapon: 6 (0.68%)
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TERRORISM
Verified terrorism events in the MENA region fell by 48% in Q4, including drops of 84% in Israel and 75% in the Palestinian Territories following the October ceasefire. Terrorism events in Yemen increased 46%, due to steady activity by al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Houthi militants. Terrorism events in Syria fell by 29% from Q3 to Q4, with 85% of recorded events taking place in Deir Ezzor governorate. However, notable attacks in December – the bombing of a mosque in Homs, a suicide bomb attack in Aleppo, and an ambush in Palmyra that killed three US citizens – suggest that Islamic State (IS) and other groups are likely seeking to extend their reach to previously less affected areas.
Terrorism incidents in the Americas rose by 14% from Q3 to Q4 2025. The increase was driven by attacks in Colombia, which accounted for just over 87% of recorded terrorism incidents in the region. Two-thirds of these were attributed to the leftist guerrilla National Liberation Army (ELN) and Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident factions, which mainly targeted law enforcement and military assets. In December, ELN insurgents used explosive-laden drones to attack a military base in Aguachica (Cesar), illustrating the continued evolution of insurgent tactics. The security environment remains challenging amid sustained militant activity, political polarization, and the approach of the 2026 elections. Terrorist incidents in Chile saw a slight rise, particularly in November, but remained confined to La Araucanía region, mainly involving of arson attacks by Mapuche militants.
Verified terrorism events in Colombia, Q4 2025
Verified terrorism events in Africa remained broadly stable between Q3 and Q4 2025. Somalia recorded a near two-fold increase, driven by intensified al-Shabaab attacks near Mogadishu and increased Islamic State Somalia Province (IS-S) activity in the north. Nigeria saw a 27% rise in incidents, particularly along its western borders with Benin and Niger, as Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM) militants expanded operations and claimed their first attack in Kwara State. Cameroon recorded a 33% increase as Anglophone separatist activity intensified in the Northwest region. Activity remained steady in Mozambique (which saw most attacks in the region), Mali and Niger, while we recorded declines in Burkina Faso, Congo (DRC) and Ethiopia.
APAC saw a modest 5% quarterly fall in terrorism events, with Pakistan (61%) and Thailand (20%) accounting for most attacks in the region. Firearms, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and grenades remained the most commonly used means of attack. In Pakistan, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa continued to be the primary hotspots for militant attacks. Notably, a Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) suicide bombing on 11 November outside the District Judicial Complex in Islamabad killed at least 12 people, while a suicide bombing attack on 24 November at a Federal Constabulary (FC) headquarters in Peshawar (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), killed three FC personnel. Australia experienced a deadly terrorist attack on 14 December, when two gunmen shot dead 15 people during a Jewish Hanukkah celebration at Bondi Beach in Sydney.
Australia’s Pulse stability score dropped below the 60-day average, reaching a low of 65.6 points, on the day of the Bondi Beach shooting.
We recorded four verified terrorism incidents in Europe in Q4, including a raid at an Islamic State (IS) hideout in Yalova province (Turkiye), less than 100km from Istanbul, where three police officers were killed in a shootout. In the UK, an assailant on 2 December rammed a vehicle into a group outside the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Crumpsall, Manchester, then attacked them with a knife, killing one and injuring three. Police shot dead the attacker and a bystander. Despite the overall low number of incidents, the terrorism threat persists, with the most likely threat coming from unsophisticated actors targeting soft locations such as holiday markets, shopping areas, religious sites, and public gatherings.
Verified terrorism events in Syria, Q4 2025
Verified terrorist attacks in Nigeria, Q4 2025
Breaking Event alerted on 14 December
AFRICA: ELECTION-RELATED UNREST
AFRICA
Election-related unrest
In Q4 2025, significant nationwide protests erupted in Tanzania, Cameroon, and Côte d'Ivoire in relation to general and presidential elections, while Guinea-Bissau saw unrest following a military coup.
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Unrest took place ahead of the 25 October presidential election. President Alassane Ouattara secured a controversial fourth term, with leading opposition figures barred from running, prompting unrest led by the opposition Common Front. Arson and blockades were recorded, but large-scale violence was avoided and tensions gradually eased after the election.
Côte d’Ivoire
Côte d’Ivoire: Election related verified unrest events, 1-31 October
20 October: Anti-government protests reached a peak, with 10 verified unrest events recorded on Seerist
Election-related unrest spread across major cities throughout October and November following the disputed 12 October presidential election. Protesters accused long-standing President Paul Biya of manipulating the vote to deny victory to opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who declared the results fraudulent. Demonstrations, concentrated in Douala and other regional capitals, often involved vandalism, arson, and clashes with security forces. Authorities responded with mass arrests and gunfire, resulting in dozens killed or injured. Unrest has eased, but Control Risks assesses that unresolved grievances and repression pose a risk of armed rebellion emerging in the north over the next 12 months.
Cameroon: Heatmap of verified unrest events linked to the presidential elections.
Nationwide protests took place on and after election day (29 October) as President Samia Suluhu Hassan was re-elected by a huge margin. Demonstrators cited electoral irregularities and suppression of opposition parties. Unrest took place in cities including Dar es Salaam, Dodoma, and Arusha, with roadblocks and an arson attack on a police station. Security forces used live ammunition and teargas, causing deaths and injuries. Authorities imposed an internet blackout, nationwide curfew and public transport suspensions. Any protests will face heavy-handed responses in coming months.
Tanzania
Soldiers seized control of government institutions on 26 November, a day before results from the 23 October general elections were due. President Umaro Sissoco Embalo was detained and later left the country, and the military installed a transitional president. The coup triggered limited immediate violence, but larger protests erupted in mid-December. Continued repression will sustain HIGH political stability risk into 2026.
Guinea-Bissau
In Guinea-Bissau, Seerist recorded significant spikes in Anger and Fear emotion during the coup by a group of military officers on 26 November.
leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who declared the results fraudulent. Demonstrations, concentrated in Douala and other regional capitals, often involved vandalism, arson, and clashes with security forces. Authorities responded with mass arrests and gunfire, resulting in dozens killed or injured. Unrest has eased, but Control Risks assesses that unresolved grievances and repression pose a risk of armed rebellion emerging in the north over the next 12 months.
President Umaro Sissoco Embalo was detained and later left the country, and the military installed a transitional president. The coup triggered limited immediate violence, but larger protests erupted in mid-December. Continued repression will sustain HIGH political stability risk into 2026.
APAC: BILATERAL POLITICAL AND BORDER CONFLICTS
Bilateral political and border conflicts
The Asia-Pacific region saw a series of bilateral political disputes and cross-border military conflicts in Q4 2025.
Cross-border skirmishes broke out in Q4 after Afghanistan attributed a 9 October explosion in Kabul to a Pakistan airstrike. Pakistan targeted militant hideouts in Afghanistan over the ruling Taliban’s failure to act against anti-Pakistan militant groups operating from Afghan territory. A ceasefire was agreed on 19 October, but fresh clashes at the Chaman-Spin Boldak border crossing on 5 December left five dead. Militant attacks in Pakistan by Afghan-based groups are likely to prompt occasional Pakistani strikes on Afghanistan. Of 82 verified war events reported in Afghanistan and Pakistan in Q4 2025, more than 20 were cross-border clashes.
Afghanistan-Pakistan
Intense clashes took place in two areas: Green box: the border provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Pakistan) and Khost, Paktika, Nangarhar, Paktia and Kunar (Afghanistan) Blue box: Balochistan (Pakistan) and Kandahar (Afghanistan)
Click buttons below to view Verified Events.
Remarks on 7 November by Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae on Japan potentially providing military support for Taiwan led China to take economic measures. Beijing banned Japanese seafood imports on 19 November, advised nationals against travel to Japan, and told its airlines to reduce the number of flights. Increased military and coast guard activity has heightened the risk of accidental escalation – low-level maritime and aerial provocations were reported in early December. Bilateral tensions are likely to remain elevated into 2026.
Japan-China
19 November China informed Japan that it would suspend Japanese seafood imports.
24 November Reports on proposed deployment of medium-range surface-to-air missiles at a military base on Yonaguni Island (110 km east of Taiwan) by Japanese Minister of Defense Shinjiro Koizumi.
2 December “Maritime confrontation” between Chinese and Japanese coast guard vessels near disputed Diaoyu / Senkaku islands.
7 December Reports of Chinese fighter aircraft locking fire-control radar on Japanese aircraft around international waters near Okinawa during Chinese military exercise.
Click buttons below to view Emotion trigger.
Beijing continued to apply military, diplomatic, and economic pressure to isolate Taiwan. US approval of a USD 11bn arms package for Taiwan on 17 December drew strong Chinese criticism and sanctions. China held military drills in late December simulating the blockade and seizure of key parts of Taiwan. Tensions are set to remain heightened in 2026, particularly if Taiwan’s defense budget increase is approved.
Taiwan-China
Heatmap of verified war events along Cambodia-Thailand Border between 7 and 28 December. A total of 186 clashes were recorded, primarily along the Sa Kaeo (Thailand)–Banteay Meanchey (Cambodia), Surin–Oddar Meanchey, and Si Sa Ket–Preah Vihear border areas.
Cross-border clashes between Cambodia and Thailand resumed on 7 December, ending a ceasefire agreed on 28 July. Subsequent clashes included attacks on infrastructure such as bridges, trade hubs, and military facilities, including airstrikes on border-area casinos alleged to have been used as Cambodian drone launch sites. After almost three weeks of clashes, a second ceasefire was signed on 27 December and is expected to largely hold.
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NOTABLE Q4 EVENTS
United States 18 October
Across the country, millions of demonstrators protested in around 2,500 cities against President Donald Trump's administration as part of the 'No Kings' movement. Location precision: Country
Mexico 6 December
Outside the 'self-defense group' Community Police offices in Coahuayana, Michoacán state, a car bomb killed six people and injured around 25 others; reports indicate that several nearby residences and vehicles were damaged. 18.7523, -103.6699 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Mexico 15 November
Anti-government demonstrators under 'Gen Z' banners marched to Zócalo Square in Mexico City and clashed with police; reports indicate the use of tear gas and Molotov cocktails. The authorities stated that 120 people were injured, including 100 police officers. 19.4326, -99.1333 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Brazil 11 November
In the Parque da Cidade, Belém, Pará state, a group of environmentalist demonstrators breached the COP30 venue to protest against oil exploration and to denounce the lack of environmental protection resources; reports indicate that two security guards were injured in the clash. -1.4209, -48.4542 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Brazil 28 October
In the Alemão and Penha neighborhoods of Rio de Janeiro City, Rio de Janeiro state, shootings between gunmen and police left at least 132 dead, including four police officers; reports indicate that 81 people were arrested and that police were targeted with explosive devices from drones. -22.8597, -43.2739 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Sudan 26 October
In El Fasher, North Darfur, Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed to have captured the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) headquarters. The RSF took control of most of the city thereafter. 13.6238, 25.3556 Location precision: City
Outside the Presidential Palace in Antananarivo, an army colonel announced that the military had taken control of the government and seized power from President Andry Rajoelina, shortly after the lower house of parliament (National Assembly) voted to impeach the president. -19.003, 47.5309 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Madagascar 14 October
In Bissau, senior army officers announced that they had seized control of Guinea-Bissau until further notice, following sustained gunfire near the presidential palace and election commission headquarters. 11.8638, -15.5853 Location precision: City
Guinea-Bissau 26 November
Nigeria 21 November
At a Catholic school in Papiri, Agwara LGA, Niger State, unknown gunmen kidnapped at least 303 students and 15 teachers; no group claimed responsibility. 10.6278, 4.5193 Location precision: City
Burkina Faso 9 October
Near Gaskinde, Soum province, Sahel region, Islamist extremist JNIM militants claimed to have killed 90 soldiers in an ambush against a convoy. 13.9107, -1.634 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Angola 16 December
In Sumbe, Cuanza Sul, unidentified individuals vandalized and caused the collapse of five power transmission towers, resulting in electricity outages in Cuanza Sul and Benguela provinces; losses from the vandalism amounted to approximately USD 435,000. -11.2032, 13.8428 Location precision: City
Cambodia 24 December
In Ou Chrov district, Banteay Meanchey province, a Thai artillery attack struck near National Road No. 5 in the Kon Tri area at about 09:40 local time, according to Cambodian sources. Two civilians were injured. 13.6089, 102.7716 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Australia 14 December
Near Archer Park, Bondi Beach, Sydney, two individuals opened fire on a Hanukkah celebration, killing 15 people and injuring 41 others, including two officers. Police shot dead one suspect and arrested the other, and conducted operations on a suspected IED in a vehicle. -33.8899, 151.2788 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Pakistan 11 November
Outside the District Judicial Complex in Islamabad, a suspected militant carried out a suicide bombing that killed at least 12 people, injured around 36, and damaged nearby vehicles and buildings; no group claimed responsibility for the attack. 33.6649, 73.0068 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
India 10 November
In front of the Red Fort metro station, New Delhi, a car bomb detonated at 18:52 (local time), killing 15 people, injuring 20 others, and damaging nearby vehicles and commercial stores. 28.6569, 77.2368 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Indonesia 7 November
Germany 2 October
In Freising, Bavaria, unidentified drones were sighted near Munich Airport (MUC) in the evening, leading to flight disruption and temporary runway closures. 48.3536, 11.7831 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Belgium 14 October
In Brussels, around 100,000 people marched from North to South Station to protest at the government’s pension and labor reforms; protesters clashed with the police, and an unspecified number of protesters were arrested. 50.8604, 4.3615 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Russia 22 December
In Moscow city, Lt-Gen Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Russian army's operational training department, was killed and another person injured when a suspected IED planted on a car exploded in a parking lot near Yasenevaya Street. 55.6032, 37.7307 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Russia 31 December
In Tuapse, Krasnodar region, an overnight drone attack damaged an oil refinery, a maritime oil terminal, and a gas pipeline in a residential area, according to Russian sources; no casualties were reported. 44.0983, 39.0719 Location precision: City
Greece 5 December
Outside Thessaloniki Makedonia International Airport (SKG) in Thermi, Central Macedonia region, farmers attempted to block traffic on Aerodromiou Thessalonikis Street and clashed with the police, who deployed tear gas; the demonstration followed similar protests staged nationwide. 40.5326, 22.9936 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Iraq 26 November
At the Khor Mor gas field, Sulaymaniyah province, Kurdistan Region, an unknown drone strike targeted the gas plant, injuring several workers; production was suspended at the field, disrupting regional electricity supply. 35.1367, 44.8213 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
Lebanon 23 November
In Haret Hreik, south of Beirut, Mount Lebanon Governorate, Israeli airstrikes targeted a senior Hizbullah leader, killing at least five people and injuring over 28 others. 33.852, 35.5098 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Syria 13 December
In Palmyra, Homs governorate, two US soldiers and a US national were killed by a suspected Islamic State member during an ambush; reports indicate that at least three others were injured during the attack. 34.57, 38.2925 Location precision: City
Yemen 30 December
In Al-Mukalla, Hadhramaut province, Saudi security forces carried out an airstrike at the port, targeting two ships coming from the UAE that were allegedly carrying weapons and equipment for the Southern Transitional Forces. 14.5305, 49.125 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Iran 30 December
In Tehran, a group of merchants and residents staged a protest on Khayyam street against exchange-rate fluctuations, inflation, and market recession; police fired tear gas to disperse the protesters. 35.6737, 51.4166 Location precision: Street / Neighborhood
Click on an event below for more details.
Crime
At the mosque of State Senior High School 72 in North Jakarta City, Jakarta, multiple explosions during a Friday prayer session injured 54 students and teachers. A suspect was arrested; he had allegedly been a victim of school bullying and was also injured. -6.1635, 106.8850 Location precision: Asset / Building / Business
WHAT TO WATCH: Q1 2026
NOTEABLE Q4 EVENTS
Nationwide 'March For Australia’ Protests Australia 26 January
'National March' for Palestine in London United Kingdom 31 January
General Elections Bangladesh 12 February
Far-right demonstration in Manchester United Kingdom 21 February
Mining Indaba Conference South Africa 9-12 February
Africa Union (AU) Summit Ethiopia 11-15 February
General Elections Costa Rica 1 February
Ramadan Various countries 18 February – 19 March 2026
Anniversary of the Israeli Annexation of the Golan Heights Syria/Israel 14 February
2026 Winter Olympics Italy 6-22 February
Eid Al-Fitr Various 21 – 22 March
General Elections Nepal 5 March
Municipal elections France 15 March
Legislative Elections Colombia 8 March
Global Trade Review (GTR) conference South Africa 12 – 13 March
January 2026
February 2026
March 2026
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November 2025
December 2025
"No Kings" Protests United States 18 October A coalition of social justice organizations operating under the banner "No Kings" has called for a second nationwide demonstration against President Donald Trump’s administration and policies. Protests will be held at approximately 2,000 locations nationwide, from courthouse steps to community parks. Activists may engage in disruption, including blocking major roads. Heightened security measures, including increased police presence and possible road closures, are possible. Region: Americas Category: Security; Protest Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Eid Al-Fitr Various 21 – 22 March 2026 Eid al-Fitr commemorates the end of Ramadan and is a public holiday in most of the region, though the exact dates may not be announced until the lunar sighting. Many businesses are likely to shut down or operate on reduced hours. The terrorism threat from Islamist extremist groups is likely to be heightened, particularly where such groups have a track record of attacks. Security may be heightened around mosques and other religious sites. Region: MENA Category: Holiday; Religious Potential impact type: Terrorism, Transportation
US-Australia Bilateral Meeting United States 20 October US President Donald Trump will host Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for their first formal meeting since the Australian election, focusing on the AUKUS pact for nuclear-powered submarines in the Indo-Pacific. The agenda includes the Pentagon AUKUS review, defense cooperation and Australia’s investments in US shipbuilding. Additional topics include Australia's COP31 bid with Pacific nations, child social media bans, and Palestinian statehood. The outcome of the meeting could shape regional alliances and submarine timelines. Region: Americas Category: Geopolitical; Bilateral meeting Potential Impact type: Transportation
Presidential Election Côte d'Ivoire 25 October President Alassane Ouattara of the governing Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) party is seeking a fourth term in office. Opposition parties are likely to call protests in the weeks leading up to the poll to denounce his re-election bid and the declaration that their candidates are ineligible. Demonstrations are likely to be subdued due to internal divisions and the waning influence of Ouattara’s opponents. Region: Africa Category: Election Potential Impact Type: Unrest
Nationwide 'March For Australia’ Protests Australia 26 January 2026 A third round of 'March for Australia' anti-immigration protests are planned to call for an end to mass migration and the reclaiming of Australian identity. They will coincide with Australia's National Day, and are planned in major cities including Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth, and Adelaide. Thousands of supporters are likely to attend, with localized traffic disruption possible in the vicinity. A heightened police presence is likely given the potential for clashes between protesters and counter-protesters. Region: Asia and The Pacific Category: Security; Protest Potential impact type: Unrest, Transportation
Far-Right Demonstration in Manchester United Kingdom 21 February 2026 The Britain First far-right party / group is planning a march in Manchester to call for the mass deportation of immigrants. Participants will gather outside Manchester Piccadilly Railway Station at 12:00 (local time). Based on similar previous demonstrations, numbers in attendance are likely to reach into hundreds and possibly low thousands. A counter-demonstration by anti-racism groups is likely, raising the risk of clashes between both groups. Localized transport disruption is also likely in the vicinity. Region: Europe & CIS Category: Security; Protest Potential impact type: Unrest, Transportation
2026 Winter Olympics Italy 6-22 February 2026 The 2026 Winter Olympics, commonly known as ‘Milano Cortina 2026’, is scheduled to take place at sites across Lombardy and northeast Italy. Most ice events, aside from curling, will be held in the Milan cluster, while sliding and snow events will be held in clusters around Cortina, Valtellina and the Fiemme Valley. Anti-war and pro-Palestine protests are likely to take place outside venues hosting the games. Region: Europe & CIS Category: Sporting event Potential impact type: Unrest
General Elections Honduras 30 November Voters will elect the president, vice-president, members of the National Congress (legislature) and representatives for the Central American Parliament (Parlacen). The electoral cycle will lead to heightened polarization and sporadic bouts of unrest, but widespread instability is unlikely. Region: Americas Category: Election Potential Impact: Unrest
47th ASEAN Summit Malaysia 26-28 October The 47th ASEAN Summit takes place in Kuala Lumpur, with Malaysia's chairmanship focusing on strengthening regional cooperation in economic development, security, digital transformation, and environmental sustainability. The summit will convene leaders from ASEAN member states, as well as heads of government from non-ASEAN countries, reportedly including the US, Italy, Brazil and South Africa. The authorities are likely to implement stringent security measures, including road closures and heightened police presence, as ASEAN summits have historically attracted protests. Region: APAC Category: Geopolitical; Intergovernmental Forum Potential Impact Type: Unrest, Transportation
Anniversary of the Israeli Annexation of the Golan Heights Syria/Israel 14 February Druze Arab residents on both sides of the border gather each year to commemorate the anniversary of Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights in 1982, demanding the area be Syrian. Protests have been peaceful in the past but unrest risks are elevated in 2026 as Israeli security forces continue to establish a military presence in Quneitra province. Region: MENA Category: Anniversary Potential impact type: Unrest, Crime, Terrorism
'National March' for Palestine in London United Kingdom 31 January The Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC) and several other organizations are planning a 'National March for Palestine' in central London to denounce Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip and demand the UK government stop arming the Israeli military. The protest is likely to attract numbers into the thousands, meaning localized transport disruption is likely. Given the possibility of some protesters expressing support for the proscribed 'Palestine Action' group, scuffles with police are possible. Region: Europe & CIS Category: Security; Protest Potential impact type: Unrest, Transportation
General Elections Chile 16 November Chileans will vote for a new president and national legislators. The most likely candidates to get through to the run-off on 14 December are right-wing José Antonio Kast of the Republican party and left-wing former Labor Minister Jeannete Jara (2022-25) of the Communist Party. Polls point to Kast as the likely victor. There is a limited threat of civil unrest or violence in the run-up to the vote. Region: Americas Category: Election Potential Impact Type: Unrest
Ramadan Various countries 18 February – 19 March 2026 Ramadan is an Islamic holy month marked by fasting during daylight hours. There will be public celebrations and disruption in Arab and Muslim-majority countries. Security may be heightened around mosques and religious sites during this time due to an increased risk of Islamist extremist attacks. Anticipate disruption to public services and businesses; business hours are shortened in some countries and some businesses will close entirely during fasting hours. Dates are finalized according to lunar sightings. Region: MENA Category: Holiday; Religious Potential impact type: Terrorism, Transportation
Presidential and Legislative Elections Tanzania 28 October President Samia Suluhu is seeking her first term as an elected president after taking power in March 2021 on the death of her predecessor John Pombe Magufuli. Running on the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party ticket, Suluhu has reverted to Magufuli-era tactics such as banning the main opposition Party for Democracy and Progress (CHADEMA) from contesting the elections, making a landslide win for her and the CCM likely. Region: Africa Category: Election Potential Impact: Unrest
General Elections Nepal 5 March 2026 General elections will be held on 5 March 2026, with vote-counting and results released on the same day. Nepal’s main political parties will use their campaigns to focus on reforms and anti-corruption initiatives amid public dissatisfaction. Newer parties will likely gain traction by leveraging public frustration with traditional parties, making for a volatile campaign period. Any signs of backtracking or ineffectiveness on reform is likely to prompt unrest. Region: Asia and The Pacific Category: Election Potential impact type: Unrest
Africa Union (AU) Summit Ethiopia 11 – 15 February 2026 The summit will be held at AU Headquarters in Addis Ababa on 11-15 February. Heads of state and government from all 55 member states will attend, alongside hundreds of delegates from international organizations, civil society, and the private sector. Protests are usually limited in scale, and heavy security will minimize impact on meetings and events. Road blockades will be enforced throughout the vicinity of the AU complex, causing disruption to transport in the area. Region: Africa Category: Geopolitical; Intergovernmental Forum Potential impact type: Unrest; Transportation
General Elections Bangladesh 12 February 2026 The Bangladesh Nationalist Party is widely expected to win general elections and form the next government. Large-scale political rallies are likely in the run-up to the polls as all parties mobilize supporters and push their agendas, leading to traffic disruption, restrictions on movements and occasional localized violence that poses risks of operational and supply chain disruption, particularly in main urban centers such as the capital Dhaka. Region: Asia and The Pacific Category: Election Potential impact type: Unrest
Mining Indaba Conference South Africa 9 – 12 February 2026 The annual 'Investing in African Mining Indaba' conference will take place at the Cape Town International Convention Centre (CTICC) in Cape Town, Western Cape. Indaba is one of the most significant global mining conferences, involving mining CEOs and senior government officials among the 10,500 delegates. Protests over human rights and environmental issues are likely, though heavy security will minimize disruption. Transport disruption is likely near the CTICC, with roadblocks also likely elsewhere in the city. Region: Africa Category: Other Potential impact type: Unrest, Transportation
Global Trade Review (GTR) conference South Africa 12 – 13 March 2026 The conference will take place at the Cape Town International Convention Centre (CTICC) on 12-13 March. The GTR conference is one the most significant trade financing events in Africa, typically bringing together around 700 delegates from dozens of countries. The conference traditionally has not attracted any associated unrest activity. Security will be heightened in the vicinity of the CTICC, with enforced road blockades near the venue likely to cause some transportation disruption. Region: Africa Category: Other Potential impact type: Transportation
Legislative Elections Colombia 8 March 2026 Colombia will hold legislative elections and presidential primaries on 8 March 2026. Risks of political violence will be moderate in department capitals but higher in conflict-affected rural areas where armed and criminal groups are likely to threaten voters. Region: Americas Category: Election Potential impact type: Unrest
Municipal elections France 15 and 22 March Municipal elections will be held in France with the first round taking place on 15 March and a second round taking place on 22 March. Municipal elections enable voters to elect city councilors in each commune across the country. Municipal election periods often include political rallies, counter-rallies, and issue-based demonstrations, particularly in major cities and contested mayoral races. Region: Europe & CIS Category: Election Potential impact type: Unrest
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What to Watch Q1 2026
General Elections Costa Rica 1 February Costa Rica will hold presidential and parliamentary elections on 1 February 2026. A presidential runoff is scheduled for 5 April 2026 if no candidate reaches 40% of the vote in the first round, as is likely. President Rodrigo Chaves, of the Social Democratic Progress Party (PPSD), cannot seek reelection. Political rallies and protests are likely, which will bring minor disruption to traffic in major urban centers including the capital, San José. Region: Americas Category: Election Potential impact type: Unrest
Parliamentary Elections Thailand 8 February
Parliamentary Elections Thailand 8 February Thailand will hold early elections on 8 February 2026 to elect 500 lawmakers, with each party allowed to submit up to three prime ministerial candidates. Political instability is likely to extend for several months beyond the elections as complex coalition talks between Thailand’s fractious political parties delay the formation of a new government. Nonetheless, civil unrest risks are likely to remain low, as the public is generally weary of public demonstrations. Region: Asia and The Pacific Category: Election Potential impact type: Unrest
Lunar New Year China, Taiwan (China), Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei 15-23 February
Lunar New Year China, Taiwan (China), Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei 15-23 February 2026 Lunar New Year is celebrated by members of the Chinese community, particularly in East and Southeast Asia. The number of public holidays varies by country, with the shortest observances in most Southeast Asian countries—one day in Indonesia and Brunei, two in Singapore and Malaysia, and days in Taiwan. China has the longest observance, with a nine-day public holiday between 15 February and 23 February. Government offices, schools, and many businesses will be closed. Region: Asia and The Pacific Category: Holiday; National Potential impact type: Transportation
International Women's Day March in Mexico City Mexico 8 March
International Women's Day March in Mexico City Mexico 8 March 2026 Thousands of feminist activists are expected to rally through Mexico City for women's rights and to denounce gender-based violence on International Women's Day. Demonstrators will likely march towards the Zócalo Square, as in previous years. In 2025, more than 200,000 demonstrators gathered and participated in a peaceful march. Traffic disruption is likely and there is a low risk of clashes with police. Region: Americas Category: Security; Protest Potential impact type: Unrest, Transportation
Departmental Elections Bolivia 22 March
Departmental Elections Bolivia 22 March 2026 Bolivia will hold departmental elections on 22 March 2026. Voters will elect around 5,000 public offices across the country, including governors and vice-governors in selected departments, departmental assembly members, and municipal authorities. Political rallies are expected, which will bring disruption to traffic in urban centers. Region: Americas Category: Election Potential impact type: Unrest
General Elections Congo-Brazzaville 22 March
General Elections Congo-Brazzaville 22 March 2026 President Denis Sassou Nguesso is likely to seek and win a fifth term in the election, given opposition weakness. The risk of civil unrest and localized episodes of violence will persist during the electoral cycle, particularly following the likely announcement of Sassou Nguesso’s victory, but are unlikely to escalate with the government maintaining firm control over the security apparatus. Region: Africa Category: Election Potential impact type: Unrest
Municipal elections France 22 March
Americas United States: 18 October Across the country, millions of demonstrators protested in around 2,500 cities against President Donald Trump's administration as part of the 'No Kings' movement. Location: Country Mexico: 6 December Outside the 'self-defense group' Community Police offices in Coahuayana, Michoacán state, a car bomb killed six people and injured around 25 others; reports indicate that several nearby residences and vehicles were damaged. 18.7523, -103.6699 Asset / Building / Business Mexico: 15 November Anti-government demonstrators under 'Gen Z' banners marched to Zócalo Square in Mexico City and clashed with police; reports indicate the use of tear gas and Molotov cocktails. The authorities stated that 120 people were injured, including 100 police officers. 19.4326, -99.1333 Asset / Building / Business Brazil: 11 November In the Parque da Cidade, Belém, Pará state, a group of environmentalist demonstrators breached the COP30 venue to protest against oil exploration and to denounce the lack of environmental protection resources; reports indicate that two security guards were injured in the clash. -1.4209, -48.4542 Asset / Building / Business Brazil: 28 October In the Alemão and Penha neighborhoods of Rio de Janeiro City, Rio de Janeiro state, shootings between gunmen and police left at least 132 dead, including four police officers; reports indicate that 81 people were arrested and that police were targeted with explosive devices from drones. -22.8597, -43.2739 Street / Neighborhood Africa Sudan: 26 October In El Fasher, North Darfur, Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed to have captured the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) headquarters. The RSF took control of most of the city thereafter. 13.6238, 25.3556 City Madagascar: 14 October Outside the Presidential Palace in Antananarivo, an army colonel announced that the military had taken control of the government and seized power from President Andry Rajoelina, shortly after the lower house of parliament (National Assembly) voted to impeach the president. -19.003, 47.5309 Asset / Building / Business Guinea-Bissau: 26 November In Bissau, senior army officers announced that they had seized control of Guinea-Bissau until further notice, following sustained gunfire near the presidential palace and election commission headquarters. 11.8638, -15.5853 City Nigeria: 21 November At a Catholic school in Papiri, Agwara LGA, Niger State, unknown gunmen kidnapped at least 303 students and 15 teachers; no group claimed responsibility. 10.6278, 4.5193 City Burkina Faso: 9 October Near Gaskinde, Soum province, Sahel region, Islamist extremist JNIM militants claimed to have killed 90 soldiers in an ambush against a convoy. 13.9107, -1.634 Street / Neighborhood Angola: 16 December In Sumbe, Cuanza Sul, unidentified individuals vandalized and caused the collapse of five power transmission towers, resulting in electricity outages in Cuanza Sul and Benguela provinces; losses from the vandalism amounted to approximately USD 435,000. -11.2032, 13.8428 City APAC Cambodia: 24 December In Ou Chrov district, Banteay Meanchey province, a Thai artillery attack struck near National Road No. 5 in the Kon Tri area at about 09:40 local time, according to Cambodian sources. Two civilians were injured. 13.6089, 102.7716 Street / Neighborhood Australia: 14 December Near Archer Park, Bondi Beach, Sydney, two individuals opened fire on a Hanukkah celebration, killing 15 people and injuring 41 others, including two officers. Police shot dead one suspect and arrested the other, and conducted operations on a suspected IED in a vehicle. -33.8899, 151.2788 Street / Neighborhood Myanmar: 10 December In Mrauk-U Township, Rakhine state, government forces reportedly targeted a public hospital with airstrikes, killing at least 33 people and injuring 80 others. 20.5901, 93.1913 City Pakistan: 11 November Outside the District Judicial Complex in Islamabad, a suspected militant carried out a suicide bombing that killed at least 12 people, injured around 36, and damaged nearby vehicles and buildings; no group claimed responsibility for the attack. 33.6649, 73.0068 Asset / Building / Business India: 10 November In front of the Red Fort metro station, New Delhi, a car bomb detonated at 18:52 (local time), killing 15 people, injuring 20 others, and damaging nearby vehicles and commercial stores. 28.6569, 77.2368 Asset / Building / Business Indonesia: 7 November At the mosque of State Senior High School 72 in North Jakarta City, Jakarta, multiple explosions during a Friday prayer session injured 54 students and teachers. A suspect was arrested; he had allegedly been a victim of school bullying and was also injured. -6.1635, 106.8850 Asset / Building / Business Europe Germany: 2 October In Freising, Bavaria, unidentified drones were sighted near Munich Airport (MUC) in the evening, leading to flight disruption and temporary runway closures. 48.3536, 11.7831 Asset / Building / Business Belgium: 14 October In Brussels, around 100,000 people marched from North to South Station to protest at the government’s pension and labor reforms; protesters clashed with the police, and an unspecified number of protesters were arrested. 50.8604, 4.3615 Asset / Building / Business Russia: 22 December In Moscow city, Lt-Gen Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Russian army's operational training department, was killed and another person injured when a suspected IED planted on a car exploded in a parking lot near Yasenevaya Street. 55.6032, 37.7307 Street / Neighborhood Russia: 31 December In Tuapse, Krasnodar region, an overnight drone attack damaged an oil refinery, a maritime oil terminal, and a gas pipeline in a residential area, according to Russian sources; no casualties were reported. 44.0983, 39.0719 City Greece: 5 December Outside Thessaloniki Makedonia International Airport (SKG) in Thermi, Central Macedonia region, farmers attempted to block traffic on Aerodromiou Thessalonikis Street and clashed with the police, who deployed tear gas; the demonstration followed similar protests staged nationwide. 40.5326, 22.9936 Street / Neighborhood MENA Lebanon: 23 November In Haret Hreik, south of Beirut, Mount Lebanon Governorate, Israeli airstrikes targeted a senior Hizbullah leader, killing at least five people and injuring over 28 others. 33.852, 35.5098 Street / Neighborhood Iraq: 26 November At the Khor Mor gas field, Sulaymaniyah province, Kurdistan Region, an unknown drone strike targeted the gas plant, injuring several workers; production was suspended at the field, disrupting regional electricity supply. 35.1367, 44.8213 Asset / Building / Business Syria: 13 December In Palmyra, Homs governorate, two US soldiers and a US national were killed by a suspected Islamic State member during an ambush; reports indicate that at least three others were injured during the attack. 34.57, 38.2925 City Syria: 28 December In Latakia city, thousands of Alawites gathered to demand more federal autonomy from the government following a fatal bombing at an Alawite Mosque in Homs; pro-government counter-protesters clashed with the Alawites, with sporadic gunfire later leaving three people dead and 60 injured. 35.5411, 35.7762 Street / Neighborhood
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