14 March – 3 June, 2023
Mounting political tensions cause persistent unrest, operational disruption in Senegal
Senegal
Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
Opposition Supporters Hold Mass Rally Ahead of Court Case
14 MARCH 2023
Over 10,000 supporters of Sonko gather in Dakar to protest his March 16 trial on defamation, insult and forgery charges.
Unrest Erupts during Sonko’s Journey to Court
Violent protests erupt in Dakar after supporters of Sonko are blocked from accompanying his motorcade to court. The trial is adjourned until March 30 after Sonko claims police injure him during his journey to court.
Related protests are also recorded in several other regions, principally in Sonko’s home region of Ziguinchor.
16 MARCH 2023
BRIEF
TIMELINE
Protests by Sonko’s Opposition Coalition Erupt Before Resumption of Court Case
Supporters of Sonko’s Yewwi Askan Wi (YAW) opposition coalition stage demonstrations in major cities across the country ahead of the resumption of Sonko’s libel trial on March 30.
Sonko is later convicted at his March 30 trial on defamation charges and issued with a two-month suspended jail sentence.
29 MARCH 2023
Expert Analysis Warns of Return to Unrest
Analysts predict that opposition protests in support of Sonko will resume in early May, following an April lull due to Ramadan.
18 APRIL 2023
Possible Arrest of Sonko Prompts Unrest
In Ziguinchor city, supporters of Sonko block access to his residence, resulting in violent clashes with police as officers seek to escort him to Dakar for his May 16 trial on rape charges.
In Dakar, related protests erupt with protestors torching 20 vehicles belonging to a national bus company, while also attacking two stores belonging to a French supermarket chain.
Sonko’s trial is adjourned on May 16 following his non-attendance at court.
15 MAY 2023
Sonko is Convicted and Sentenced to Jail
Sonko is acquitted of rape charges but convicted on separate charges of ‘corrupting youth’ and sentenced to two years in prison.
In the immediate aftermath of the verdict, violent protests spread across numerous districts of the capital, as well as other cities across the country, triggering a hotspot in Dakar.
1 JUNE 2023
Analysis Predicts the Continuation of Unrest
Growing political tensions caused by Sonko’s conviction and President Macky Sall’s ongoing ambiguity on running for a third presidential term will sustain the risk of large-scale unrest ahead of elections in 2024.
2 JUNE 2023
1–3 JUNE 2023
As the January 2023 Control Risks analysis anticipated, the protests are on a similar scale to opposition protests that took place in March 2021.
Seerist’s Intelligence team verifies 24 unrest events nationwide as protests against Sonko’s conviction continue.
At least 16 people are killed, and hundreds injured during the protests between 1-3 June. Businesses including petrol stations, banks, and supermarkets are subject to looting and vandalism, while infrastructure also suffers damage.
Click here for 2 August updated developments.
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On 22 January, thousands of people attended a mass rally organised by opposition leader Ousmane Sonko in the capital Dakar, at which he denounced a legal case against him as a political plot intended to undermine him ahead of presidential elections in 2024. On 26 January, analysis published on Seerist [by our strategic partner, Control Risks] forecast that Sonko’s impending trials (multiple are underway) are likely to drive unrest in months ahead and - in the event Sonko is convicted on rape charges - with the potential for large-scale protests involving multiple fatalities.
May 1 - Pulse score starts to trend down.
Pulse score drops 21 points from May 1 to May 16.
June 1 – Heatmap of protests in Dakar
Violent Protests Continue Across the Country
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
Since 3rd June unrest has simmered with sporadic unrest events registered by the intel team
President Sall announced he would not seek a third term
Growing political tensions caused by Sonko’s conviction and President Macky Sall’s ongoing ambiguity on running for a third presidential term will sustain the risk of large-scale unrest ahead of elections in 2024.
3 JULY 2023
Opposition leader, Sonko is arrested leading to more unrest across the country
Seerist’s human intelligence team verifies a spate of violent unrest events across the country including the blockades of key roadways and attacks on an electricity company’s headquarters.
28 JULY 2023
Unrest hotspot triggered in Dakar
Following Sonko’s arrest for conspiracy against the state and calls for insurrection, protesters take to the streets.
29 JULY 2023
Control Risks publishes analysis detailing implications of the unrest
1: Arrest of opposition leader to fuel political tensions, civil unrest
2: High level of socioeconomic grievances to maintain civil unrest,
labour activism risks
31 JULY 2023
Senegal’s stability score drops 20 points over 5 days
As the Pulse score plummeted from 51 to 31, the emotional data for anger saw a drastic spike.
1 AUGUST 2023
Following the dissolution of Sonko’s political party, Control Risks issued updated analysis
The dissolution of the PASTEF party severely compromises Sonko’s chances of competing in the 2024 presidential election. Sonko’s supporters will continue mobilizing, which in turn will maintain civil unrest risks in the coming days.
Another unrest hotspot triggered in Dakar after authorities dissolve the opposition party and cut internet access across the country.
2 AUGUST 2023
Civil unrest risk to remain MEDIUM as Sall’s decision alleviates the immediate threat of unrest.
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