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Serbia Unrest Outlook:
One-Year Anniversary of the Novi Sad Tragedy
Political Unrest in Serbia
OVERVIEW
Anti-government unrest erupted in Serbia in November 2024 in response to the collapse of part of Novi Sad’s train station, which had recently undergone renovation by a Chinese company as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the country. The collapse killed 16 people and injured several others. Mass protests erupted across Serbia, including Belgrade, Novi Sad, Kraljevo, and Zrenjanin in more than 100 cities and towns, led primarily by students claiming there were acts of corruption in the construction process at the railways station, and to demand accountability for the incident. The anti-government and anti-corruption protest movement has continued through 2025, with regular large-scale demonstrations drawing attention to issues of corruption, transparency, and governance.
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Public pressure on the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and President Alexander Vucic after months of student-led protests forced the resignation of then–Prime Minister Miloš Vučević (2024–25) in January 2025. In April, Vučić appointed political outsider Đuro Macut as prime minister—a token concession to protesters, as Macut is a known Vučić loyalist. Macut’s appointment has failed to calm student protests. Periodic violent confrontations between pro and anti-government protesters have been reported, and they are likely to continue, driven by a combination of entrenched demands from protesters for early elections and the active mobilization of government-aligned supporters.
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Outlook
The government’s rhetoric framing the protests as foreign-influenced destabilization attempts suggests little political will for compromise, reinforcing the potential for recurring violent flashpoints. The student led protests that began in November 2024 are expected to keep sustained pressure on President Vucic’s government through early 2026, with a major demonstration planned for 1 November to mark the one-year anniversary of the Novi Sad railway station accident. The impact on businesses is likely to remain largely incidental. However, business personnel may face disruption, for example to their regular commutes or as a result of road closures, due to the ongoing demonstrations.
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Source: Seerist’s Serbia Country Report, Control Risks’ Analysis #1, #2, and #3
Seerist Pulse History & Trendline Over the Past 60 Days
Click buttons below to see PulseAI scores.
Serbia’s MEDIUM Political Stability and HIGH Civil Unrest ratings indicate policy environments that are periodically challenging for business, while civil unrest presents persistent and serious challenges for business.
Serbia’s range of PulseAI scores over the past 60 days were between 50.3 and 57.6. Drops in Serbia’s PulseAI score were largely driven by unrest events (e.g., citizens rally to support Serbs in Kosovo, student protests) and crime.
Looking ahead over the next seven days, Seerist projects PulseAI scores with an anticipated range of 51.2 - 55.2, and an average of 53.6.
11 October 2025 PulseAI Score
2 October 2025 PulseAI Score
24 September 2025 PulseAI Score
29 August 2025 PulseAI Score
Timeline of Political & Social Unrest in Serbia
Seerist’s verified unrest data for Serbia shows that unrest has persisted steadily since 1 November 2024 following the collapse of a canopy at Novi Sad railway station. Since that date, more than 280 unrest verified events have been recorded across the country, indicating sustained political and social tensions.
Trigger: The concrete canopy at the main railway station in Novi Sad collapsed, killing 16 people on 1 November 2024.
Escalation & Government Response: On 28 January the Prime Minister resigned, following a general strike against the government on 24 January.
Peak: The largest demonstration was recorded in Belgrade on 15 March with more than 325,000 protesters.
19 March 2025: Seerist and Control Risks raised the civil unrest risk rating to HIGH following sustained anti government pressures across civil society.
1 April 2025: Serbia’s political stability risk rating raised to MEDIUM, as mass anti-government protests continued to take place across the country.
Further Escalation and Violence: On 13 August, supporters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) in Novi Sad confronted anti-government demonstrators outside the party’s offices, launching flares and firecrackers.
1 October 2025: 11-month mark of the Novi Sad railway accident
Analyzing Civil Unrest Trends Over the Past Year
SERBIA
Click buttons below to view Verified Events.
Geographic distribution of 286 verified unrest events in Serbia from 1 November 2024 to 10 October 2025 (344 days).
Novi Sad
Belgrade
Analyst’s Note:
Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, and Novi Sad have remained hotspots of unrest throughout the anti-government protest movement that began after the Novi Sad railway station collapse on November 1, 2024.
Seerist’s verified security event trends indicate protests targeting the ‘government’ sector accounted for more than 60% of all verified unrest events in Serbia between 1 November 2024 and 10 October 2025. Anti-government protesters also blocked university buildings and roads, reflected in events affecting the ‘road’ and ‘education’ sectors. In April 2025, demonstrators rallied outside the HQ of state broadcaster, RTS, over an alleged propaganda campaign against student-led protests.
Government
64%
Law enforcement/ Legal
15%
Education
7%
Road
5%
Media
2%
Verified Security Event Trends by ‘Sector’
Verified Security Event Trends by ‘Attack Type’
Verified Security Event Trends by ‘Sector’
Verified Security Event Trends by ‘Attack Type’
Protest (demonstration)
Blockades
Sticks/beating
Vandalism
Strike
Vehicle ramming
Arson/firebomb
Riot
Sit-in
Gun (firearm)
Belgrade Unrest
ZOOMING IN
Verified Security Event Trends by ‘Attack Type’
Verified Security Event Trends by ‘Sector’
Protest
64%
Blockades
24%
Sticks/beating
5%
Vandalism
3%
Vehicle ramming
2%
Verified Security Event Trends by ‘Attack Type’
Verified Security Event Trends by ‘Sector’
Government
Law enforcement/legal
Education
Media
Road
Private Property
Rail
Retail
Healthcare
International institutions
Seerist PulseAI & Security Rating for Belgrade (20 Oct 2025)
Nikola Tesla Airport
House of the National Assembly
Click buttons below to view Verified and Breaking Events.
VE Mapping in Belgrade, Serbia (1 Nov 2024 – 10 Oct 2025)
Click green squares below to zoom in.
Click buttons to view Verified Events.
Gazela Bridge
Branko Bridge
Riot
1%
Strike
1%
Novi Sad Unrest
ZOOMING IN
Verified Security Event Trends by ‘Attack Type’
Verified Security Event Trends by ‘Sector’
Protest
61%
Blockades
25%
Sticks/beating
5%
Sticks/
beating
8%
Sit-in
2%
Vandalism
2%
Riot
1%
Verified Security Event Trends by ‘Attack Type’
Verified Security Event Trends by ‘Sector’
Government
Law enforcement/legal
Education
Rail
Road
Media
Agriculture
Construction
Seerist PulseAI & Security Rating for Novi Sad (20 Oct 2025)
Novi Sad Train Station
Click buttons to view Verified Events.
Varadin Bridge
VE Mapping in Novi Sad, Serbia (1 Nov 2024 – 10 Oct 2025)
Click green square below to zoom in or buttons to view Verified Events.
Arson/firebomb
1%
Oct 29 – Nov 1
Future Events to Monitor in Serbia
Future Events cover one-off or recurring events that may cause operational disruption, heightened security threats or result in significant political decisions. Found on the dedicated country page, all calendar events are given a rating for their potential severity, in addition to assessing impact types in areas such as ‘unrest’ and ‘transportation’.
Analyst’s Note:
Demonstrations and vigils are likely to occur across the country, including multi-day walks from several cities, including Cacak and Subotica, towards Novi Sad in rememberance of the railway accident victims. Although these events are community-driven and likely to remain peaceful, traffic and road travel disruptions should be expected on highways leading to Novi Sad. The largest gathering will likely take place in Novi Sad on 1 November.
Oct 31 – Nov 1
Nov 1
Oct 29 – Nov 1
Oct 31 – Nov 1
Nov 1
Oct 29 – Nov 1
Oct 31 – Nov 1
Nov 1
Future Events
Source: Seerist and Control Risks
President’s call for dialogue unlikely to defuse anti-government protest movement
ANALYSIS
Analysis Details President Aleksandar Vucic on 22 August called for a “democratic dialogue” between the government and representatives of students and other anti-government protesters. The call follows ten months of escalating student-led protests.
Vucic’s appeal marks a shift in the government’s approach to the protest movement, which has included arbitrary detentions of protesters and seen the government face accusations of disproportionate force in countering the protests.
Vucic’s approach appears to remain inconsistent, as his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) continues to organise counter-rallies by government supporters across Serbia to end student “blockades”.
Student representatives have rejected informal dialogue and will continue to push for early elections.
The protests and political tensions are likely to continue, with further clashes likely between student protesters and government supporters.
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Call for dialogue The protest movement was sparked by the collapse of a train station roof in late 2024 that protesters blame on government corruption. They are calling for the president’s resignation and early elections. Following months of largely peaceful anti-government demonstrations, recent developments – including targeted attacks on SNS offices – have marked a turning point.
In response to the growing unrest, Vucic has signalled a shift in strategy, opening the door to dialogue. However, at the same time, the SNS continues to call on its supporters to attend rallies in dozens of cities in response to the anti-government protests and unrest, with SNS rallies scheduled in 100 locations across Serbia on 31 August. Such rallies signal a co-ordinated effort to counter the anti-government protest movement and reinforce the ruling party’s presence nationwide.
Protesters have so far refused to engage in dialogue with Vucic unless snap elections are held. They are aiming to remove Vucic and the SNS from power. Representatives of the students have insisted that any discussion with Vucic should take place only within the framework of an official election campaign.
Opposition leaders are also sceptical about Vucic’s offer for talks, citing the use of violence and unfair practices by the government. In January, they rejected a plan for an advisory referendum and pledged instead to demand a transitional government to organise free and fair elections. Vucic had firmly dismissed the opposition’s January proposal, labelling it both destabilising and unnecessary. His dismissal comes amid rising political tensions, with claims that foreign-influenced polling is being used to discredit opposition voices.
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Outlook
Political tensions will remain high in the coming months, and the protests will continue. Vucic's narrative shift is unlikely to yield substantive dialogue, given entrenched opposition demands and scepticism about the government’s offers.
Vucic shows no signs of stepping down. He is expected to remain in office, firmly rejecting calls for a transitional government or early elections.
The rallies by SNS supporters are expected to persist, raising growing concerns about further confrontations between the student-led demonstrators and government supporters. Such clashes may pose incidental threats to business assets and personnel in the vicinity, though businesses are unlikely to be direct targets for violent action.
Sources: ““Skupovi bez poente”: Šta možemo očekivati na SNS okupljanjima ovog vikenda?”, Danas “Serbia, Vučić attempts dialogue with protesters: “Let’s discuss together””, EU News “We have work to do — Serbia’s future is with the EU, President Vučić tells Euronews”, Euronews
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Source: Control Risks' analysis published on 5 September 2025
Monitoring Anti-government Unrest in Serbia
Ahead of the anniversary of the Novi Sad railway station accident, EventsAI reports highlight a divided public mood. Responses from government officials have alternated between downplaying and warning of possible operational disruptions on 1 November, while other reports note growing polarization among opposition parties around support for the anti-government movement.
EventsAI Emotions
EventsAI Sentiment
EventsAI Sentiment shows the prevailing sentiment, whether positive, negative or neutral expressed in textual data. Seerist has recorded negative sentiment in over 3,000 reports across news and social media related to unrest in Serbia over the past 60 days, with opposing reports of pro and anti-government views.
EventsAI Emotions
EventsAI Sentiment
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