26 – 30 November 2023
A nationwide curfew was implemented in Sierra Leone after armed attacks at Wilberforce army base, Pademba Road prison, and other locations.
Sierra Leone
Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
Escalating tensions: The strongly worded statement by SAF spokesperson Nabil Abdallah said that RSF troops had deployed without coordination with the SAF, in violation of “the directives of the central and state security committees.” The army warned the RSF to abide by existing security protocols. The current dispute stems from plans to regularise the RSF by integrating the paramilitary organisation into the SAF command structures, a move heavily resisted by the RSF.
The civilian Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition on 13 April urged the security forces to avoid any escalation and blamed “remnants of the former regime” of former president Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) for stirring up tensions to derail the transition to a civilian-led government. Several other groups including the current holdout groups to the December 2022 framework agreement such as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and international diplomats urged the RSF and SAF to negotiate their differences and avoid armed conflict.
Seerist’s AI-driven stability indicators respond to reports of attacks on a barracks and prison in the capital Freetown.
26 NOVEMBER 2023
Hotspots triggered
BRIEF
TIMELINE
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Pulse score drops 22 points
Emotional analysis of events AI shows sharp rises in fear and anger
3 events subsequently corroborated and verified by Seerist’s intelligence team across the military barracks and prison in Freetown.
26 NOVEMBER 2023
Analysis update highlights persistence of political stability threats.
27 NOVEMBER 2023
Pulse stability score reaches a 2-month low.
29 NOVEMBER 2023
Sierra Leone’s stability score fell to 6 which is well below the average range after reports that the attack represented a coup attempt.
Further analysis published in the Big Picture series anticipates a continuation of political tensions into December.
30 NOVEMBER 2023
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