SITUATION REPORT
Conflict in Sudan
Conflict in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted in April 2023 and has persisted into 2024, continuing to destabilise the country and expand areas of fighting. Clashes between the RSF and SAF have been reported in the capital Khartoum and across western and southern states in recent weeks. Additional armed groups such as the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), led by Abdulaziz al-Hilu, have joined in the fighting in South Kordofan state as reported on 8 January.
In 2024, Seerist's intelligence team has verified nearly 300 war and crime events across Sudan. According to Seerist verified events data, clashes between the SAF and RSF involve various attack types including the use of artillery, exchanges of gunfire, airstrikes and the use of military drones. Recent war events include:
Since April 2023, international and regional actors have made several attempts at mediation and to broker a ceasefire between the SAF and RSF. Despite agreements early on by both parties to cease hostilities, clashes have continued to intensify and derail peace talks. Saudi Arabia and the US hosted SAF and RSF representatives several times in Jeddah to discuss a humanitarian ceasefire, while Egypt and the regional East African Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have also attempted to broker an agreement. The African Union (AU) acknowledged that multiple competing mediation efforts could hinder progress.
Indeed, a ceasefire is unlikely in the coming weeks, with international mediation efforts having faltered. The SAF on 8 February rejected mediation forums outside the US- and Saudi-sponsored Jeddah talks, though no significant progress has been made in recent months. SAF leader Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on 17 February vowed to continue fighting until the RSF is defeated.
Conflict Developments and Mediation Efforts in Sudan:
A Seerist Timeline
Sudan Security Overview
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Sudan has experienced decades of civil conflict, but prior to the outbreak of clashes between the SAF and RSF, fighting did not take place in the capital Khartoum or central areas and was confined to Darfur and the south. However, fighting between the RSF and the SAF is likely to remain widespread as both sides are committed to militarily defeating the other.
Northern and eastern regions remain reasonably safe for foreign businesses even amid the ongoing fighting. However, the border areas with South Sudan – notably South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, and the disputed region of Abyei – have witnessed significant clashes between the RSF and SAF. Serious security threats are also prevalent in Darfur, where the RSF’s targeting of ethnic African groups has driven widespread insecurity, looting and destruction of property. The fighting has allowed for a surge in crime, including road banditry. Crime rates are low and violent crime rare in northern and eastern Sudan, but common in the Darfur and the Greater Kordofan region bordering South Sudan.
1 March 2024 In the Al-Mujahideen neighbourhood, Khartoum, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) bombed several Rapid Support Forces (RSF) positions using drones.
29 February 2024 Near the Abu Shuk and Nivasha displaced people's camps, El Fasher, North Darfur, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) engaged in a gunfight that left an unspecified number of people injured.
28 February 2024 In Babanusa, West Kordofan, Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) troops engaged in gun and artillery fire; casualty figures were unconfirmed.
In Omdurman, Khartoum, Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed that it shot down a Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) aircraft; no further details were available.
According to a recent outlook by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks, without a negotiated settlement fighting will continue in several parts of the country in the coming weeks. Both sides will view capturing Khartoum as central to their strategies, and fighting will remain intense in the city and surrounding areas. The RSF will look to make further inroads in Sennar and Gezira states, following its successful capture of the Gezira state capital Wad Madani in mid-December 2023. The Situation in Darfur and Kordofan regions will also remain volatile given the presence of several other armed groups. Fighting will exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis, with food, fuel, and water supplies likely to be stretched in conflict-affected parts of the country.
15 April
Clashes broke out between the SAF and RSF across Sudan and Seerist raised its war risk from low to HIGH.
7 May
Peace talks led by Saudi Arabia and the United States took place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to discuss a humanitarian ceasefire.
22 May
The SAF and RSF signed a temporary 7-day ceasefire brokered by the US and Saudi Arabia in Jeddah to allow access to humanitarian aid, restore public services, and vacate critical public facilities.
31 May
The SAF withdrew from Jeddah talks after claiming the RSF was not abiding by the ceasefire agreement.
1 June
The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated four companies affiliated with the SAF and RSF, aiming to freeze their assets in the US and prevent transactions between US companies and the named entities.
15 July
Peace talks in Jeddah resumed, however diplomatic efforts were complicated by the backing of each side by external actors.
22 June
US and Saudi led talks adjourned after failing to get the RSF to commit to a new humanitarian ceasefire.
19 July
Seerist raised Sudan's nationwide kidnap risk rating from low to MEDIUM amid the ongoing conflict.
13 September
The UNITAM head, Volker Perthes, resigned after talks between the RSF and SAF stalled after accusations of bias among mediators were levelled at both sides.
9 October
The EU agreed on a sanction's framework, including asset freezes and travel bans, on key individuals believed to be furthering the conflict.
26 October
Peace talks resumed in Jeddah.
4 December
Peace talks in Jeddah ended without an agreement and OFAC sanctioned three additional individuals.
18 December
RSF forces captured Gezira state capital Wad Madani from the SAF following several days of fighting.
28 December
The RSF leader embarked on a diplomatic tour, visiting several countries in Africa to garner support and legitimacy.
21 January
The SAF boycotted an IGAD summit in Kampala (Uganda) and suspended their membership from IGAD.
22 January
The EU imposed sanctions on six entities associated with the RSF and SAF.
Sudan's war risk rating has remained HIGH since April 2023, when fighting escalated in Khartoum and quickly spread to several strategic locations, including Khartoum International Airport (KRT), the presidential palace, the state TV and radio building, and the headquarters of both the RSF and SAF.
In response to the outbreak of conflict, Seerist raised the country's evacuation phase to EMERGENCY EVACUATION and adjusted regional security risk ratings accordingly as SAF-RSF hostilities intensified. In August and September 2023, flight operations to Port Sudan resumed on a limited basis, primarily for humanitarian aid, evacuation and logistical purposes. Khartoum's airport remains closed and the country's civilian airspace is heavily restricted. Most foreign embassies issued shelter-in-place orders before conducting coordinated evacuations of their personnel from the country.
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Understanding the Conflict
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In Sudan's capital city Khartoum, along with nearby cities Omdurman and Bahri, fighting has been concentrated around key government installations such as the Presidential Palace, SAF General Command, state television and broadcasting offices, and the airport. Industrial facilities in Omdurman and Bahri also remain targets. Both the SAF and RSF deployed heavy artillery and local reports suggest that the SAF has targeted RSF positions in Omdurman and Bahri, trying to prevent RSF reinforcements from entering central areas of the capital.
Throughout the conflict the RSF reportedly increased their use of drones and surface-to-air missiles against the SAF. In response, the SAF has increased its shelling and airstrikes on RSF positions in Omdurman and Bahri. In these areas, the RSF has embedded itself deeply in residential areas, and SAF positions – typically in strategic government buildings and army installations – have come under severe pressure as the RSF has proved adept at urban guerrilla warfare. The SAF will seek to dislodge the RSF from its positions in Khartoum, where it has gained significant territory in recent months. Both view control of the capital as vital to their attempts to project themselves as the only legitimate authority in the country.
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The fighting has significantly disrupted the provision of basic services, as infrastructure has been damaged, and insecurity prevents repairs. Disruption to power, water, telecoms, road and rail are likely to continue and numerous power stations, high voltage lines and water stations in the capital are non-operational and are incapable of being repaired soon. The availability of basic supplies and transport in and out of Khartoum is also severely constrained, with numerous checkpoints and fighting contributing to detours and delays. Additionally, Sudan’s national rail network has not functioned since April 2023, and both passenger and freight services are likely to remain suspended. Hospitals will remain understaffed, and the provision of water and power limited.
Khartoum Security Situation
Nationwide Security Situation
Conflict hotspot recorded in Khartoum on 12 January amid ongoing clashes between SAF and RSF.
Verified Conflict Events in Khartoum
13 April – 31 May, 2023
1 June – 31 August, 2023
1 September – 31 November, 2023
1 December, 2023 – 23 February, 2024
Initial fighting outside Khartoum since 15 April 2023 was reported in Merowe (Northern state), al-Fashir (North Darfur state), El Geneina (West Darfur state), El-Obeid (North Kordofan state), Nyala (South Darfur state) and Port Sudan (Red Sea state), Kassala (Kassala state) and el-Gedarif (Gedarif state), especially around local airports which both sides sought to control. Clashes have continued into 2024 in the Darfur region as the RSF seeks to push the SAF out of key areas, including Nyala and el-Geneina. In these areas, both sides increasingly tap into ethnic grievances to bolster local support, with the RSF seeking support from Arab militias as witnessed in clashes involving Arab militiamen on 12 May 2023 in El Geneina (West Darfur), during which homes were looted and deaths were reported. Consequently, in addition to the resurgence of SAF-RSF fighting, incidents of ethnic violence have been reported across the country.
The operating environment in conflict-affected zones will remain challenging in 2024. Fighting will prevent the delivery of essential supplies such as food, medicine and fuel, especially in Darfur. Additionally, fighting in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states is likely to threaten the transport of oil into the country from South Sudan.
Seerist's Emotions AI indicates heightened levels of fear, anger and sadness across Sudan as the conflict between the SAF and RSF continues in 2024.
13 April – 31 May, 2023
1 June – 31 July, 2023
1 August – 31 October, 2023
1 November – 31 December, 2023
Verified Conflict Events Recorded Across Sudan
Khartoum Security Situation
Nationwide Security Situation
1 January – 23 February, 2024
10 March 2024 In En Nuhud, North Kordofan, the army (SAF) reserve forces led an offensive against Rapid Support Forces (RSF), leaving 27 people dead and two injured, while nine others were captured; several properties were also destroyed.
9 March 2024 In Sennat state, Rapid Support Forces (RSF) invaded several villages west of Sennar city, killing and wounding more than 20 people.
7 March 2024 In Omdurman, Khartoum, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) claimed that it captured the Al-Merrikh Stadium and the adjoining areas from the control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Sudan Security Overview
Sudan has experienced decades of civil conflict, but prior to the outbreak of clashes between the SAF and RSF, fighting did not take place in the capital Khartoum or central areas and was confined to Darfur and the south. However, fighting between the RSF and the SAF is likely to remain widespread as both sides are committed to militarily defeating the other.
Northern and eastern regions remain reasonably safe for foreign businesses even amid the ongoing fighting. However, the border areas with South Sudan – notably South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, and the disputed region of Abyei – have witnessed significant clashes between the RSF and SAF. Serious security threats are also prevalent in Darfur, where the RSF’s targeting of ethnic African groups has driven widespread insecurity, looting and destruction of property. The fighting has allowed for a surge in crime, including road banditry. Crime rates are low and violent crime rare in northern and eastern Sudan, but common in the Darfur and the Greater Kordofan region bordering South Sudan.
Sudan's war risk rating has remained HIGH since April 2023, when fighting escalated in Khartoum and quickly spread to several strategic locations, including Khartoum International Airport (KRT), the presidential palace, the state TV and radio building, and the headquarters of both the RSF and SAF.
In response to the outbreak of conflict, Seerist raised the country's evacuation phase to EMERGENCY EVACUATION and adjusted regional security risk ratings accordingly as SAF-RSF hostilities intensified. In August and September 2023, flight operations to Port Sudan resumed on a limited basis, primarily for humanitarian aid, evacuation and logistical purposes. Khartoum's airport remains closed and the country's civilian airspace is heavily restricted. Most foreign embassies issued shelter-in-place orders before conducting coordinated evacuations of their personnel from the country.
This is an updated version of the conflict in Sudan. Click here to read the original.