Senegal Elections March 2024

SITUATION REPORT

Tracking Unrest in Senegal Ahead of March Presidential Elections

SITUATION DEBRIEF On 3 February 2024, President Macky Sall announced the postponement of the 25 February presidential elections citing a “serious” and ”confused” political situation. Following the postponement, unrest spearheaded by the political opposition spiked across the country, resulting in numerous casualties, operational disruption to businesses, and the restriction of internet access.

Risk & Stability Analytics

Pulse AI: Tracking Stability in Senegal

Analysis: Likely release of opposition leader to defuse tensions ahead of 24 March polls, threat of clashes to persist

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Source: Control Risks

Seerist assesses stability globally with a feature called Pulse AI, which continuously identifies micro changes in stability and looks for anomalies to alert users to actions that may pose a risk or present an opportunity to their operation. Pulse AI employs a revolutionary algorithm that analyses both long-term and breaking information to develop living stability assessments worldwide.

The government on 12 March withdrew its appeal against the reinstatement of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko on the electoral roll.

Source: Seerist + Control Risks

Seerist verified 30 unrest events in February in relation to the election postponement, making February 2024 the highest recorded month of unrest in the country in the last year. Unrest on a similar scale hasn’t been seen since June 2023, when protests erupted over the conviction of opposition Leader Ousmane Sonko. The government has confirmed the 24 March 2024 as the rescheduled date for the presidential election. Although the opposition will continue to denounce President Sall’s postponement of the original election date, political tensions will somewhat reduce in the run up to the polls following the recent release of two prominent opposition leaders from jail. Civil unrest risks are also likely to decrease during March, owing to the start of Ramadan and electoral campaigning by opposition presidential candidates. However, clashes between rival supporters remain possible during the official campaign period (9-22 March), driving operational challenges for businesses, including traffic disruption.

Heatmap showing all verified unrest events nationwide between 3 February and 14 March

Security Overview: Civil Unrest

Give an at-a-glance, qualitative assessment of current levels of risk to operations in a country. They are business-focused and cover various categories including political stability and attitude to investment; condition of infrastructure; and security issues such as unrest and terrorism.

Demonstrations – sometimes violent – can occur during election periods, driven by political developments and tensions between rival parties. Political unrest periodically takes place in Dakar, causing operational disruption or occasionally turning violent. The opposition in recent years has increasingly criticised President Macky Sall’s perceived tighter grip on power and apparent efforts to muzzle his opponents. In March 2021, amid growing socioeconomic discontent tied to the COVID-19 pandemic, the arrest of opposition figure Ousmane Sonko triggered large-scale protests across the country, leaving 13 people dead. Many supermarkets and petrol (gasoline) stations were looted. In November 2021, Sonko’s arrest along with that of opposition figure Barthélémy Dias prompted new protests in Dakar, in which protesters and security forces clashed. Large-scale spontaneous unrest also broke out in June 2023 after Sonko was sentenced to two years in prison for “corrupting the youth” in the Sweet Beauté case. The opposition accused security forces of having used live ammunition against civilians. Sonko’s ongoing detention will continue to drive political tensions and fuel civil unrest risks.

In Dakar, political demonstrations are banned in the business district of Plateau. Protests typically occur around the Cheikh Anta Diop University (UCAD) campus in Fann district or around Place de la Nation (formerly Obélisque) near Medina, as well as in Grand Dakar, Yoff, Ngor, Sicap, VDN, and Cité Keur Gorgui districts. Protesters sometimes erect roadblocks, clash with police or engage in looting, and security forces may use heavy- handed measures to disperse protests. Protests can cause operational disruption and incidental security threats for businesses, and there is a limited threat of foreign – particularly French – businesses being targeted, given accusations of French support for Sall’s government. Demonstrations also often block the highway connecting Dakar to the rest of the country and the Blaise Diagne International Airport (AIDB), driving security threats and operational challenges for businesses. Socioeconomic unrest is also periodically reported in Dakar. Civil society groups such as Y’en a Marre and FRAPP-France Dégage sometimes denounce flooding, water shortages or rising food prices. These groups usually call for protests on social media. Students at UCAD in Dakar also frequently protest on their campus to denounce precarious living and working conditions. The presence of security forces near UCAD often leads to clashes with students. Trade unions also periodically organise strikes and demonstrations, but these generally remain small-scale and localised.

BACK

1 Feb Senegal’s Pulse AI score starts to drop below 62 on 1 February, as Pulse picks up on rumors of a potential postponement of the elections.

3 Feb On 3 February, President Macky Sall confirms earlier rumours, and postpones the presidential election, prompting a further drop Pulse score.

9–10 Feb Between 9-10 February, a significant 20-point drop in Pulse score is recorded as major protests and riots against the election postponement breakout in multiple cities and towns across the country.

15 Feb On 15 February, the Pulse score continues to climb as protests and political tensions ease following the Constitutional Court’s rejection of President Sall’s attempt to delay elections until December 2024.

6–13 March The Pulse Score climbs to 60 on 6 March after the government announces plans for the election to be held on 24 March. This upward trend continues, with the Pulse Score reaching a two-month peak of 65 on 13 March as electoral campaigning gets underway.

Sonko’s release will somewhat reduce political tensions and the associated threat of civil unrest ahead of the 24 March presidential election. However, although Sonko will likely be released from prison in the coming weeks, he will not participate in the presidential poll. Clashes between rival party supporters remain likely during the electoral campaign on 9-22 March and after the announcement of the provisional and final results.

Outlook

Electoral Campaign and Political Violence The start of the electoral campaign (9-22 March) and Ramadan, along with the recent release of oppositions leaders Ousmane Sonoko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye, suggests that opposition groups are unlikely to call for mobilisations, though they will continue to blame Sall’s decision to postpone the elections as the main reason for the current uncertain political situation. Nevertheless, some civil unrest risks will persist as families of victims killed during opposition-led protests that occurred between 2021 and 2024 will continue to denounce the amnesty bill, which was voted into law on 6 March. Clashes between rival supporters will remain likely during the electoral campaign, as well as after provisional and final results are announced. For instance, clashes on 10 and 11 March broke out between supporters of PASTEF and ruling camp presidential candidate Amadou Ba in Parcelles Assainies (Dakar) and Pikine (Dakar region) respectively. Although businesses are unlikely to be targeted amid electoral violence, unrest could pose operational challenges, including traffic disruptions. The announcement of provisional and final results would also drive a threat of violent protests, particularly if Ba secures victory.

Presidential Election In our most likely scenario, Bassirou Diomaye Faye of the opposition African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (PASTEF), backed by party leader Ousmane Sonko, secures victory in the second round against ruling Benno Bokk Yakaar (BBY) coalition candidate Amadou Ba. Faye’s victory drives significant uncertainty for foreign businesses, including increased regulatory and contract risks. A credible alternative scenario sees Ba secures victory over Faye in the second round, resulting in business continuity. In an outlier scenario, Ba’s limited popularity sees him fail to reach the second round. Khalifa Sall, leader of the opposition Taxawu party and former Dakar mayor (2009-18), defeats Faye in the second round.

Pulse AI forecasts stability will remain steady during the campaign period over the coming week.

Monitoring Developments in Senegal

Create and save custom keyword searches with Events AI through Seerist’s curated sources for Senegal.

In February, Seerist's Events AI identified news and social media articles reporting on past and planned protests in relation to the election postponement.

Event Trends show how unrest categorized data dominated Events AI results in February.

A clear increase in Joy can be seen from 6 March, when the government announced plans for a 24 March election.

Analysing Unrest Trends with Verified Events

Verified Events (VE) are authenticated by a team of subject matter experts that identify, verify, and monitor events 24/7.

The capital region/city of Dakar has been the main flashpoint for unrest events, with 45% (15) taking place across its various districts since February. Significant unrest has also been recorded other regions, including Thiès, Ziguinchor, Saint-Louis, Kolda, amongst others.

With 30 verified unrest events, February 2024 represents the highest month of unrest for Senegal in the past year.

Unrest events recorded since 3 February 2024 have all involved protest, while clashes (sticks/beating) between protestors and security forces occurred in one third of events. Blockades, rioting and arson occurred in around a sixth of all unrest events.

Following the announcement of the election postponement on 3 February, the first half of the month (up until 15 February) saw the greatest number (26) of protests occurring. The second half of February (after 15 February) saw a much smaller number of protests (3), as political tensions eased due to the Constitutional Court’s rejection of Presidential Sall’s plan to delay the election to December.

This is an updated version of the unrest in Senegal. Click here to read the original.

Source: Control Risks

Clashes between rival party supporters remain likely during the electoral campaign on 9-22 March and after the announcement of the provisional and final results.

However, although Sonko will likely be released from prison in the coming weeks, he will not participate in the presidential poll.