MONITORING REPORT
APAC Region Navigates Energy Crisis in 2024
SITUATION DEBRIEF
In recent years, major conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars have had far-reaching effects on global energy supplies and markets. In the Asia and the Pacific (APAC) region, increased energy costs and operational challenges have led to fuel shortages and prolonged power outages in some developing countries, notably in Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea, and Pakistan. In turn, these circumstances have impacted businesses throughout the region, causing operational and infrastructure risks to increase.
Seerist monitors global energy developments, supply chain disruptions and market resilience, providing timely analyses and forecasts to keep users well-informed, wherever they operate. Since 1 January 2024, Seerist published 16 updates analysing the mounting energy crisis across the APAC region and how energy policies, shortages, outages and supply chain delays are expected to impact businesses moving forward.
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In Focus: Pakistan
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Source: Control Risks
Pakistan faces an acute energy crisis, and sporadic power outages (“load shedding”) will continue over the coming year. The underlying problems that have resulted in shortages – inadequate infrastructure, widespread theft of electricity by consumers and the large debts accumulated by various power-generation and distribution companies – will persist.
Energy costs will likely be variable and subject to ad-hoc changes by the government and the National Electricity and Power Regulation Authority (NEPRA), which will seek to fulfil conditions set by the IMF. As global commodity prices put pressure on the domestic currency and current account deficit, reliance on hydrocarbon imports due to insufficient domestic power production, as well as the government’s efforts to increase prices to reduce the fiscal deficit to meet IMF conditions, will sustain pressure on domestic energy prices.
VIETNAM
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on 19 February issued a directive for government agencies and state-owned enterprises to ensure adequate electricity supply, ahead of potential power shortages in 2024.
Rooftop solar installations, Laotian imports and long-distance transmission infrastructure will help meet northern Vietnam’s energy needs, but these options face regulatory and operational difficulties that might not be adequately resolved in 2024.
Bigger regulatory shifts on issues like tariff determination and offtake obligations are needed to incentivise the development of new large-scale projects such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and offshore wind plants.
Political backing to develop a regulatory framework for such projects will alleviate officials’ worries around future disciplinary measures. This could come in the form of a National Assembly (legislature) resolution for special mechanisms.
Outlook: What to Expect in 2024
Afghanistan
Thailand and Cambodia
Singapore
Pakistan
Vietnam
Laos
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Create and save custom keyword searches with Events AI to sift through Seerist's curated sources and stay informed on energy-related developments in Asia.
The Events AI heatmap shows that Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Papua New Guinea were most affected by energy shortages across the APAC region between January and March 2024.
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Source: Control Risks
Bhutan
Papua New Guinea
Afghanistan
Pakistan
Search Seerist's curated APAC sources to follow energy crisis developments
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PAKISTAN
State-owned gas distributor Sui Southern Gas Company on 4 March said that Pakistan’s indigenous gas reserves would reduce to half of the current production by FY27.
A decline in indigenous gas reserves is likely to lead to a rise in demand in gas imports, while progress on the exploration and extraction of any newly discovered reserves will remain slow.
However, a fragile economy and concerns over Pakistan’s ability to facilitate payments will make commercial suppliers and exporters hesitant to provide supplies on a periodic basis.
The new Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)-led government will attempt to prioritise energy projects but progress will remain slow, sustaining the energy crisis.
Power outages will continue even as the likely imposition of tariffs over the coming year weighs in on demand. Our infrastructure risk rating will remain HIGH.
The heatmap shows all verified energy-related unrest events between January and March 2024. Protests over energy issues primarily occurred in India and Pakistan.
Seerist verified a total of 38 energy-related unrest events across APAC between January and March, the majority of which were protests over high electricity tariffs or inadequate energy (fuel, gas, electricity) supply.
Verified Event by Category
Verified Event by Attack Type
Verified Event by Category
Verified Event by Attack Type
Seerist verified 17 energy-related unrest events in Pakistan between January and March. The heatmap indicates Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and the Gilgit-Baltistan region were most impacted by those protests and blockades.
Hover over circles for regional analysis.
Source: Control Risks
The Taliban government’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi was quoted on 5 March as stating that Turkmenistan had agreed to increase electricity supplies to Afghanistan. In addition, Tajikistan is slated to increase its power exports to Afghanistan by 17% in 2024.
Afghanistan
Thailand and Cambodia
Singapore
Pakistan
Vietnam
Laos
Both countries are facing increasing electricity costs due to a reliance on imported LNG, and they are keen to unlock the Overlapping Claims Area (OCA), a 27,000-square kilometer area in the Gulf of Thailand which could hold significant reserves of oil and gas. However, Thai officials are not aligned on whether the joint exploration can be tackled without substantively resolving the existing maritime boundary issue.
Afghanistan
Thailand and Cambodia
Singapore
Pakistan
Vietnam
Laos
Singapore’s Energy Market Authority (EMA) has been assessing the viability of deploying nuclear energy technology in the country through its engagement with international organisations like the International Atomic Energy Agency. Despite these ongoing efforts, the commercial deployment of nuclear energy in Singapore is unlikely to become a reality within the next few years.
Afghanistan
Thailand and Cambodia
Singapore
Pakistan
Vietnam
Laos
The PML-N government will attempt to address Pakistan’s acute energy crisis by prioritising attracting investment and completing energy projects. However, progress on such projects is likely to remain slow due to a variety of factors, including bureaucratic red-tape and amid a desire to limit the fiscal deficit.
Afghanistan
Thailand and Cambodia
Singapore
Pakistan
Vietnam
Laos
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has directed the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) to introduce a streamlined mechanism for the development of LNG-to-power and offshore wind plants in the second quarter of 2024. Both types of projects offer viable options for large-scale electricity supply but have long been impeded by a lack of clear guidance on crucial issues.
Afghanistan
Thailand and Cambodia
Singapore
Pakistan
Vietnam
Laos
The Laotian government was reported to have approved a 1,200-MW wind farm project in Savannakhet province (southern Laos). The Savannakhet project is the biggest wind farm approved by the government so far. It is estimated to start operations by early 2026 and expected to produce enough power for domestic consumption and potentially, excess output that can be exported to Vietnam.
Click country names to see What to Expect in 2024.
Countries Looking for Energy Alternatives
Japan
Singapore
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Countries Experiencing Fuel Shortages
Source: Control Risks
Monitor Impacts to Business with Events AI
Create and save custom keyword searches with Events AI to sift through Seerist's curated sources and stay informed on energy-related developments in Asia.
The Events AI heatmap shows that Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Papua New Guinea were most affected by energy shortages across the APAC region between January and March 2024.
Stay Up-to-date on Regional Developments with Seerist Analysis
Seerist Analysis
VIETNAM
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on 19 February issued a directive for government agencies and state-owned enterprises to ensure adequate electricity supply, ahead of potential power shortages in 2024.
Rooftop solar installations, Laotian imports and long-distance transmission infrastructure will help meet northern Vietnam’s energy needs, but these options face regulatory and operational difficulties that might not be adequately resolved in 2024.
Bigger regulatory shifts on issues like tariff determination and offtake obligations are needed to incentivise the development of new large-scale projects such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and offshore wind plants.
Political backing to develop a regulatory framework for such projects will alleviate officials’ worries around future disciplinary measures. This could come in the form of a National Assembly (legislature) resolution for special mechanisms.
Source: Control Risks