MONITORING REPORT
US Primary Elections
On 5 March 2024, 15 states and one territory across the United States will hold primary elections, known locally as Super Tuesday, which will contribute to determining the Republican and Democratic party presidential candidates ahead of the November elections. For the Republican party, former President Donald Trump (2017-21) and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley are competing for the nomination, whereas President Joe Biden is expected to be the incumbent Democratic Party candidate.
Trump has become the first former US president to be indicted on state and federal charges, injecting new uncertainty into the US political system. It is unclear how these criminal indictments will impact Trump’s position in the 2024 presidential race. However, they have done little so far to impact his popularity among Republican voters. There is a high chance that the election in 2024 will be a rematch of the race in 2020 between Trump and Biden.
With the US primary election period underway, and both the Republican and Democratic National Conventions approaching in July and August respectively, political polarisation will continue to challenge social cohesion, threaten political stability and drive emerging security threats from violent extremists.
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Pulse AI continuously identifies micro-changes in stability and looks for anomalies to alert users to actions that may pose a risk or present an opportunity to their operation.
Pulse AI: Monitoring the US Primary Elections
Seerist's AI Tools Track Emotions and Sentiment Related to Candidates Ahead of Polls
Donald Trump
Nikki Haley
A spike in anger was recorded on 16 February after a New York state judge confirmed Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
Fear rose amid reports of the Supreme Court’s 28 February announcement to hear Donald Trump’s immunity claim.
Donald Trump
Nikki Haley
Seerist Monitors Negative Public Sentiment over Election Developments in the Past 60 Days
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Analysis: Criminal trial to not prevent former president from securing Republican candidacy
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Source: Control Risks
Seerist highlights election-related events affecting the country’s Pulse score.
The range of Pulse stability scores over the past 60 days in the United States fall between 60-64. Looking seven days ahead, Seerist’s Forecast sees an increase in stability with an anticipated range between 59-71 and an average of 66.
Use Emotions AI in combination with other Seerist features to understand sentiment around events, individuals or types of threats. Sentiment identifies and categorizes sentiment expressed in textual data. Our model gauges the prevailing sentiment, whether positive, negative or neutral.
Fluctuations in anger, fear and sadness during the Nevada primary election on 6 February and after reports of Haley’s loss.
An increase in sadness was recorded on 25 February after Nikki Haley’s loss at the South Carolina primary election.
A New York state judge on 15 February ruled that the first criminal trial against former president Donald Trump (2017-21) can proceed and will begin on 25 March.
Trial date The judge denied Trump’s attempts to dismiss the case, which concerns the alleged falsification of business documents. He announced that jury selection will begin on 25 March, making this almost certainly the first of four criminal cases against Trump to go to trial. This conflicts with Trump’s apparent legal strategy of delaying trials until after the election.
Fighting back Trump has framed the prosecutions as politically motivated, calling the business records trial “election interference” on 15 February. During a procedural hearing on 12 February for another case concerning mishandling classified documents, Trump's campaign claimed his opponents want him “erased from the ballot”. His team has used the cases in fundraising appeals.
Trump is also challenging another case charging him with election interference in Georgia state during the 2020 election. His team filed a motion on 25 January to dismiss District Attorney Fani Willis from leading the case over alleged financial misconduct. If Willis is disqualified, it could delay or derail the prosecution.
Trump is also likely to appeal rulings in two civil cases in New York state. In January, a jury ordered Trump to pay a writer USD 83.3m for defamation. In February, a judge ordered Trump and his companies to pay USD 355m in disgorgement and penalties for fraudulent business practices, also barring him from serving as a corporate officer or obtaining loans in New York for three years.
Electoral implications The business records trial will likely last six weeks, during which Trump will be required to appear regularly before the court in Manhattan borough (New York city). A verdict is highly likely to be reached in May – before the Republican National Convention (RNC) chooses its candidate in July.
A guilty verdict is unlikely to prevent Trump from securing the nomination. Outgoing RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel in November 2023 said the committee would support Trump if chosen by primary voters, even if convicted, and RNC rules state that delegates in all but three states must vote for the primary winner (candidates need a majority of delegate votes at the convention to win the nomination). Polling indicates that Trump has a significant lead in the upcoming South Carolina state primary on 24 February. However, the trials – and corresponding legal fees and time commitments – will impact Trump’s ability to campaign over the coming months.
One or more a guilty verdict would likely influence voters in the general election. Polling continues to find that voters are less likely to vote for candidates convicted of crimes. For example, a January Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found that 53% of voters in “swing states” (those not decidedly Democratic or Republican) – including 23% of Republican voters – are “somewhat” or “very unwilling” to vote for Trump if he is convicted of a criminal offence. Given how close the election will likely be, even a marginal shift in these critical states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) could will have a decisive impact.
Fluctuations in anger, fear and sadness during the Nevada primary election on 6 February and after reports of Haley’s loss.
An increase in sadness was recorded on 25 February after Nikki Haley’s loss at the South Carolina primary election.
The scheduled date makes it almost certain that Trump will be the country’s first former president to stand trial on criminal charges.
Trump’s campaign and lawyers will continue to lodge political and legal challenges against his various civil and criminal cases.
One or more guilty verdicts would most likely not prevent Trump from securing the Republican party nomination despite damaging his support in the election.
The scheduled date makes it almost certain that Trump will be the country’s first former president to stand trial on criminal charges. Trump’s campaign and lawyers will continue to lodge political and legal challenges against his various civil and criminal cases. One or more guilty verdicts would most likely not prevent Trump from securing the Republican party nomination despite damaging his support in the election.
Source: Control Risks