MONITORING REPORT
Taiwan (China) January 2024 Presidential Election
Risk Landscape Ahead of January 2024 Elections
Taiwan has a stable democratic government. A return to Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leadership in May 2016 has not threatened political stability, and prospects of political instability will remain low in the years ahead. Partisan debate between the ruling and opposition parties in the legislature is currently limited compared with when the DPP was last in power under former president Chen Shui-bian (2000-08). The DPP’s sustained legislative majority will continue to help Taiwan avoid partisan gridlock at least before the next legislative election in 2024.
Taiwan will hold its presidential and legislative elections on 13 January. The elections are closely watched as potential triggers for changes in the cross-Strait status quo. However, the outcome will not change fundamental drivers on the question of Taiwan and is likely to see only small shifts in cross-Strait tensions. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate, Vice-President Lai Ching-te, leads in polls but a last-minute surge in popularity of the opposition Kuomintang candidate, Hou Yu-ih, remains credible. Beyond geopolitics, the election will not change Taipei’s commitment to encourage foreign investment, particularly in the areas of advanced technology and manufacturing.
Verified events (VE) are authenticated by a team of subject matter experts that identify, verify, and monitor events 24/7. Users can gain insights into election-related trends, e.g. violent crime or unrest attack types and perpetrators, with Seerist’s well-tagged VE database with records since 2008.
Seerist captured a higher frequency of Chinese military aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone/median line in November and December 2023 and early January 2024 as election day approaches. The frequency of the incursions will likely remain high over the next few days leading up to the Presidential Elections on 13 January.
Source: Control Risks
Country Risk Ratings
Pulse AI continuously identifies micro-changes in stability and looks for anomalies to alert users to actions that may pose a risk or present an opportunity to their operation. Pulse AI triggered alerts notify analysts of important developments, speed the process of finding and accessing mission-relevant data, and enable analysts to maintain situational awareness.
Pulse AI: Monitoring Taiwan with AI-Driven Indicators
AI Tools Track Real-time Developments in the Run-up to Polls
Pulse Stability Score
The Taiwan Pulse stability score typically falls between 55 and 67 points.
The country’s Pulse AI History and Trendline shows that over the past 60 days, stability has ranged between 55 and 67 points. Seerist’s seven-day Pulse forecast predicts an increase in stability with scores anticipated to fall between 53 and 59.
Pulse AI History and Timeline
Tainan regional Pulse AI is currently at 51, slightly below Taiwan’s average Pulse score due to the recent large-scale DPP rally in the KMT candidate’s hometown, Chiayi County.
Regional Pulse AI
Regional Pulse AI stability map
(updated every 15 minutes)
Scribe AI
Events AI
Scribe AI automatically generates a report of top events in Taiwan from open sources in the past 24 hours and provides a stability forecast for the next seven days.
Events AI extracts information from 6.8 million news and social media sources in 100+ languages. Event categories can be filtered to provide event-type specified monitoring.
Scribe AI
Events AI
Pulse Stability Score
The Taiwan Pulse stability score typically falls between 55 and 67 points.
The country’s Pulse AI History and Trendline shows that over the past 60 days, stability has ranged between 55 and 67 points. Seerist’s seven-day Pulse forecast predicts an increase in stability with scores anticipated to fall between 53 and 59.
Pulse AI History and Timeline
Tainan regional Pulse AI is currently at 51, slightly below Taiwan’s average Pulse score due to the recent large-scale DPP rally in the KMT candidate’s hometown, Chiayi County.
Regional Pulse AI
Pulse Stability Score
The Taiwan Pulse stability score typically falls between 55 and 67 points.
The country’s Pulse AI History and Trendline shows that over the past 60 days, stability has ranged between 55 and 67 points. Seerist’s seven-day Pulse forecast predicts an increase in stability with scores anticipated to fall between 53 and 59.
Pulse AI History and Timeline
Tainan regional Pulse AI is currently at 51, slightly below Taiwan’s average Pulse score due to the recent large-scale DPP rally in the KMT candidate’s hometown, Chiayi County.
Regional Pulse AI
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Easy access to article summary with automated English translation.
The Emotion AI chart shows a spike in fear on 19 November after Ko Wen-je (Taiwan People’s Party, TPP) announced his presidential candidacy following the collapse of KMT-TPP opposition alliance negotiations.
Verified Events Illustrate Trend of Military Aircraft Incursions during Taiwan’s Election Period
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Frequency of Chinese Military Aircraft Incursions into Taiwan's Air Defence Zone
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Click the months for verified data.
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Taiwan will hold its presidential and legislative elections on 13 January 2024, with major geopolitical implications.
Seerist Analysis
The election will be closely watched as a potential trigger for changes in the cross-Strait status quo. However, its outcome is likely to result in only small-scale changes in cross-Strait tensions.
Ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te continues to lead the polls, but his victory is not guaranteed. A last-minute surge by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) candidate remains credible.
The election’s outcome will determine whether Beijing reduces trade restrictions or the frequency of military exercises or ramps up measures to pressure Taipei. However, Beijing’s reaction will be subject to further developments beyond the election.
Taipei’s commitment to encouraging foreign investment, particularly in advanced technology and manufacturing, will remain after the election. However, an opposition victory could deprioritise renewable energy development and shift the focus to nuclear power instead.
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Source: Control Risks