ISSUE report
Terrorism in Uganda and Congo (DRC)
Security Overview: ADF attacks in Uganda
On 17 October 2023, Seerist verified an attack by suspected Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militants who killed two foreign nationals and their local guide in the Queen Elizabeth National Park in Kasese, Western region of Uganda. Ugandan Peoples Defence Forces (UPDF) retaliated by attacking ADF militants on 31 October, killing at least six, on Lake Edward in Kasese, Western region. Throughout October the ADF have been linked to several incidents including attempted Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) attacks, ambushing a delivery truck, and conducting incursions into the Western region. The UPDF in return claimed airstrikes against ADF positions across the border with Congo (DRC) on 4, 16, and 21 October.
These incidents indicate the ADF’s growing ability to infiltrate Uganda and conduct attacks close to the border with Congo. The spread of ADF activities in Uganda may stem from concerns that the group’s Ugandan origins could threaten its position in Congo in the long term, especially amid the ongoing influence of Congolese ethnonationalist groups. To counter this, the ADF will increasingly seek to expand its operations outside Congo and into Uganda, especially as it looks to increase its fundraising networks and obtain the support of transnational militant groups operating in the region.
Seerist’s team of dedicated subject matter experts are tracking the ADF attacks in Uganda and verified at least five terrorism events in October. Additionally, Uganda’s Pulse AI score, a tool that continuously identifies micro-changes in stability and looks for anomalies to alert users to actions that may pose a risk or present an opportunity to their operation, dipped several times in October due to the terrorism events identified in the country.
Looking Ahead: ADF Militants to Continue Attacks in Uganda and Congo
IS has claimed several ADF attacks in Congo (DRC), and more recently in Uganda, since the ADF declared allegiance to the transnational Islamist group in 2019. In recent years, the ADF has sought to adopt a more hardline agenda to strengthen its links to IS, encouraging militants to conduct more complex attacks. However, given its Ugandan origins, the ADF continues to face difficulties recruiting in Congo, particularly as it is not perceived as being capable of promoting the ethno-regional interests of local communities. This in turn, could be a factor driving the ADF to conduct attacks more frequently in Uganda.
Additionally, rising tensions between Congo and Uganda have derailed security cooperation between the two countries, emboldening the ADF to conduct cross-border attacks. These tensions come amid Congolese government allegations that Uganda has supported the Rwandan-backed March 23 (M23) rebel group in eastern Congo. Due to this, Congolese officials have become increasingly reluctant to collaborate with the UPDF, making it difficult for the two camps to coordinate operations against the ADF, and have instead promoted the mobilisation of newly-formed ethno-nationalist self-defence groups such as the Wazalendo in North Kivu province of eastern Congo.
In this context, the ADF will likely continue to expand operations in Uganda in the coming years, with attacks increasingly involving the use of terrorist tactics, including IED explosions and armed assaults. Attacks will also target high-profile areas, including tourist destinations in Western and Central regions, which are easier to access due to their proximity to Congo. Outside these areas, the ADF will struggle to successfully attack high-profile areas, though one-off incidents targeting government buildings, police stations and passenger vehicles cannot be ruled out. The ADF lacks the capability to conduct regular large-scale attacks in Uganda, and the robust intelligence and surveillance capabilities of the security forces will constrain its operations. Nonetheless, attacks in Uganda’s Western and Central regions will increasingly target high-profile areas, posing mounting security threats to operators in the coming years. Our terrorism risk rating for Uganda remains MEDIUM.
Source: Control Risks
The Pulse AI score for Uganda shows a 27-point drop from 16-18 October following an attack by the ADF in Kasese, Western region.
Uganda Risk Ratings
2019
Conflict Hotspots were triggered in Uganda on 17 October following an attack by the ADF.
6 October
In Nyabugando ward, Bwera, Western, a shootout broke out as Ugandan People's Defense Forces (UPDF) repelled Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militants.
13 October
In Katojo, Western, five Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militants ambushed a truck delivering onions and opened fire, killing one person and injuring another.
15 October
In Kibibi, Central, police officers seized and defused two IEDs from suspected Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militants.
17 October
In a national park near Kasese, Western, suspected Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militants shot dead a Ugandan national and two foreign tourists, before torching a vehicle.
31 October
On Lake Edward near the Kayanja landing site, Kasese, Western, UPDF troops clashed with suspected ADF militants who were accused of killing two foreigners, killing at least six.
Seerist recorded verified terrorism events in Uganda throughout October involving the ADF.
Terrorism
Islamist extremist elements are believed to maintain a presence in Uganda. Somalia-based militant group al-Shabab has stated its intention to launch attacks against targets in the country in retaliation for Uganda’s military participation in the African Union’s peacekeeping mission in Somalia (AMISOM). However, it has not claimed any attacks since it carried out twin bombings in the capital Kampala in July 2010. Additionally, Domestic insurgent group the ADF will look to strengthen its loose ties with IS over the coming years by intensifying operations in Uganda – a more attractive location for IS operations than neighbouring Congo (DRC), where the ADF is based. The ADF conducted at least four attacks in Uganda between October and November 2021, including three suicide bomb explosions in Kampala in November that killed at least three people at two separate locations.
Uganda: MEDIUM security and terrorism risk ratings
Counter-Terrorism Capabilities
Overall, counter-terrorism capabilities have increased in recent years amid improvements in information sharing, extensive on-the-ground intelligence gathering, growing international assistance and coordinated regional operations. Due to the persistent threat, the government has adopted a more proactive counter-terrorism posture, highlighted by the frequent issuance of terror alerts. The improvements in the country's counter-terrorism capacity are serving to mitigate the threat.
Understanding the Terrorism Threat in Uganda and Congo
2020
2021
October-November 2021
IS claimed responsibility for the first time for at least three attacks in Uganda in October and November 2021. The attacks were most likely carried out by the ADF.
November 2021
Joint military operations between the UPDF and Congolese forces – dubbed Operation Shujaa – began in November 2021 amid growing concerns over the ability of transnational Islamist groups to establish a presence in eastern Congo.
2022
June 2022
Ugandan police announced the discovery of a suspected ADF training center in Luweero (Central region). According to a Seerist analysis, the ADF seeks to exploit the porous border between Congo and Uganda to infiltrate Muslim communities in central and western Uganda as a means of countering the growing military pressure on its position in Congo since November 2021.
The resurgence of the Rwanda-backed March 23 (M23) rebel group in eastern Congo in 2022 undermined security cooperation between Congolese and Ugandan security forces. Seerist assessed that the UPDF will likely scale back operations against the ADF in Congo, but will seek to leverage limited Congolese security capability to retain a presence close to ADF strongholds.
December 2022
Over 100 suspected ADF militants on 13 December stormed two villages in Ntoroko district (Western region), killing at least two people. This led to a series of clashes with Ugandan security forces on 13 and 20 December in which 19 ADF fighters were killed.
2023
2023
The M23 rebel incursion, which has seen the Congolese army lose significant territory in eastern Congo over the past year, has enabled the ADF and other armed groups in these areas to operate with even less government interference. Future ADF attacks are increasingly likely to involve terrorist tactics to increase its international profile and strengthen ties to IS.
ADF pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS), adopting an Islamist agenda and benefiting from the expansion ambitions of IS, which has increasingly claimed attacks conducted by the ADF. This has raised the ADF’s profile regionally, especially among Islamist militant groups.
A Seerist update in 2019 warned that IS could use its newly-formed ties to the ADF to retaliate against Ugandan military personnel aiding in regional and international counter-terrorism operations in countries like Somalia where IS has a larger presence.
ADF ties to the Islamist State (IS)
ADF/IS Attacks Slowly Decrease in Congo and Increase in Uganda
95 Verified Events
113 Verified Events
Marks a significant increase in attacks from previous years
205 Verified Events
IS claimed its first attack in Kampala.
5 Verified Events
209 Verified Events
4 Verified Events
Decrease suggests ADF will expand attacks into Uganda.
106 Verified Events
ADF expands operations into Western and Central regions.
8 Verified Events
The risk zones reflected on the map of Uganda and eastern Congo (DRC) indicate the level of security risks in the area. The red zone over eastern Congo indicates extreme security risks, while the orange zone along the border between Congo and Uganda indicates high security risks.
Congo Verified Events
Uganda Verified Events
Source: Control Risks
Last updated: 11/1/2023
Source: Control Risks
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Stay on top of all
the situations.
Instead of going at it alone, go with Seerist. Seerist’s clients prefer knowing what is likely to happen, instead of waiting to see what happens, so they can make smarter decisions sooner rather than later.
Contact Seerist today to strategize for tomorrow.
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